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BRASILIA, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Brazil's central government posted a better-than-expected primary budget surplus in January on the back of record tax revenues, Treasury data showed on Monday, although the outlook for the year is for a large deficit. The central government, comprised of the Treasury, central bank and social security, reported a primary budget surplus of 78.3 billion reais ($15 billion) in January, above the median forecast of a 60.9 billion reais surplus in a Reuters poll. After pushing its benchmark rate from a record-low of 2% in March 2021, the central bank paused its tightening cycle in September, holding it at 13.75%. Although the central government's primary surplus reached 54.5 billion reais in 12 months, the primary deficit in this year's budget, the first under President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, had been forecast at 231.6 billion reais after Congress approval for a multi-billion spending package to increase expenses and meet campaign promises. ($1 = 5.2054 reais)Reporting by Marcela Ayres; Editing by Mark Porter and Aurora EllisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Detailed below are seven top stocks to buy now, according to the $17.5 billion value fund manager. The silver lining is that most Wall Street firms think the economy will experience a soft landing, which would be characterized by a mild downturn. This means buying value stocks that will both succeed amid a soft landing, as well as those poised to benefit from the more extreme event of a full-blown recession. Overall, he sees the group as attractively valued, especially in a soft landing scenario. Below are seven of Linehan's favorite value stocks to own in this environment along with the ticker, market capitalization, sector, and thesis for each.
International income One area where investors may look next for income is the international market, which has outperformed the U.S. in the opening weeks of 2023. Both Amplify and Schwab offer international versions of their yield funds — Amplify International Enhanced Dividend Income ETF (IDVO) and Schwab International Dividend Equity ETF (SCHY). Fixed income funds Another area that could pay off for investors is fixed income. "This is a once in many, many year opportunity to de-risk, rebalance, get back into fixed income," said Stephen Laipply, US Head of iShares Fixed Income ETFs. The fixed income ETF market is much smaller than the equity ETF market, and 2023 could see a continued growth in new categories.
Bond ETFs are bouncing back this year. Here’s why
  + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( Kevin Schmidt | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
After a dismal 2022 for fixed income funds, bonds are steadily regaining steam in the new year thanks in part to an inverted yield curve. "There's now income within the fixed income ETFs that are available," Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, told Mike Santoli on CNBC's "ETF Edge" on Monday. We've seen high-yield fixed income ETFs see inflows this year, as well as some of the safer products." Given the inverted shape of the yield curve, JPMorgan Ultra-Short Income ETF (JPST) offers a portfolio comprised of short-term, investment-grade bonds. "It's really too early to declare and wave a victory flag with regard to the soft landing," Schneider said in the same segment on Monday.
JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (Ticker: JEPI) The ETFs that showed up on the screen included JPMorgan's actively managed equity and equity derivative ETF , known by its ticker JEPI. The 30-day SEC yield shows the dividends and interest earned after expenses. VanEck Mortgage REIT Income ETF (Ticker: MORT) The rise in risk-free rates led to the dramatic re-rating of real estate investment trusts in 2022. The ETF tracks the ICE BofA CCC and Lower U.S. High Yield Constrained Index and currently offers a 30-day SEC yield of 13.26%. JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF (Ticker: JEPQ) The JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF appears to be a riskier alternative to the defensive-leaning JEPI.
Finally, you can earn income of 4% or more on cash and bonds. What if you could earn monthly dividends on stocks at an annual rate of at least 11%? That’s the pitch for exchange-traded funds that are generating eye-popping yields by selling options contracts. These ETFs, known as covered-call or option-income funds, also shielded investors from some of the pounding that stocks took last year.
Finally, you can earn income of 4% or more on cash and bonds. What if you could earn monthly dividends on stocks at an annual rate of at least 11%? That’s the pitch for exchange-traded funds that are generating eye-popping yields by selling options contracts. These ETFs, known as covered-call or option-income funds, also shielded investors from some of the pounding that stocks took last year.
BlackRock launched the AAA CLO ETF (CLOA) less than a month ago, and the product already has about $30 million in assets under management. Panagram Structured Asset Management is exploring riskier versions in the same ETF sector, launching the BBB-B CLO ETF (CLOZ) and surpassing the $20 million mark in less than two weeks. Fixed income funds boom The growth of these funds comes after a boom in fixed income ETFs in 2022, as rising interest rates and high inflation sent investors hunting for ways to generate additional yield. Invesco and VanEck also launched CLO ETFs last year, presenting additional investment options. However, there are diversification benefits to having floating rate ETFs for investors, especially in the U.S. where most fixed income products have a fixed rather than a floating rate, Kerschner said.
Foreign investors, many of them already underweight what they consider an overpriced stock market, are reducing exposure. "Only Adani Group is trading with these ridiculously high multiples, and that is the core of the problem." "At this point in time, I don’t think it’s a systemic risk," said Jimmy Lim, chief investment officer at Modular Asset Management in Singapore. "We don't think that there's going to be a default anytime soon, although I don't expect any kind of near-term resolution between Adani Group and Hindenburg," Chao said. Yet Chao expects the selloff to help bring Indian stock valuations to more "palatable levels" for investors.
Jim Nelson managed the two best global stock funds of 2022, according to Kiplinger. Nelson detailed his overall approach, and why he thinks international value stocks will thrive. In 2022, Kiplinger named Nelson's EuroPac International Dividend Income Fund as the highest-returning international large-cap value stock fund of the year, and his EuroPac International Value Fund ranked second. About half of the Value Fund's assets are dedicated to either defensive consumer-facing companies or basic materials makers. While international stocks have lagged US-based stocks for a long time, he says indicators are favoring non-US stocks today.
So how come you’re not getting a higher rate on your bank savings? Another high-yield savings optionGiven today’s still-high rates of inflation, Series I savings bonds may be attractive because they’re designed to preserve the buying power of your money. For the week ending January 26, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 6.13%, well above where it was a year earlier, at 3.55%. So, if you’re close to buying a home or refinancing one, lock in the lowest fixed rate available to you. The variable rate on a home equity line of credit or a fixed rate on a home equity loan will rise because their formulas are directly tied to the Fed’s rates.
CNBC Pro found four income funds that have performed well over the past three years, which could be opportunities for investors searching for reliable income as the year progresses: The BNY Mellon Income Stock Fund , Neuberger Berman Dividend Growth Fund , Invesco Value Opportunities Fund and Invesco Comstock Fund . Here are the funds: Three stocks stand out as being among the most heavily weighted across three of the funds: JPMorgan , Goldman Sachs and Caterpillar . Financial services names make up a large part of both the BNY Mellon and Invesco Comstock funds, with roughly 30% and 22% of the funds' investments in the sector. Both of them, as well as the Neuberger fund, include JPMorgan, which is the single biggest weighting in the BNY Mellon fund. Goldman Sachs is another favorite financial stocks, being heavily weighted in the BNY Mellon and both Invesco funds.
Jan 23 (Reuters) - The 20 best performing hedge fund managers earned $22.4 billion for investors in 2022, marking their slimmest gains since 2016 as many firms, including Tiger Global Management, struggled with slumping financial markets, LCH Investments data show. The top 20 managers, led by Ken Griffin's Citadel, Bridgewater Associates and D.E. Overall, hedge funds lost $208 billion in 2022 for clients, marking the biggest single-year decline since 2008, when they lost $565 billion, LCH data showed. Hedge funds, which were jointly managing $3.3 trillion on Dec. 31, 2022, according to eVestment data, often promise to outperform, especially when markets are stumbling. Shaw, Millennium Management, Soros Fund Management, Elliott Management, and Viking Global Investors also ranked in the top 10.
"Equities have become less attractive amid higher interest rates and recession risk," strategists at the firm said. But the $1.7 trillion fixed-income giant is calling for investors to load up on bonds, which offer safer returns. "Equities have become less attractive amid higher interest rates and recession risk. Unlike stocks, bonds offer investors a fixed rate of return – which can prove more attractive in times of economic uncertainty. Read more: Watch the bond market and not the Fed for a steer on interest rates, billionaire investor Jeff Gundlach says
The firm's Integrity Dividend Harvest Fund ended 2022 down just 1.45%, while the broader market saw its worst year since 2008. So far in 2023, Integrity Dividend has gained more than 5%, while the S & P is up only a little more than 1%. IDHIX 1Y mountain Integrity Dividend Harvest I outperformed the S & P 500 in 2022. The stock, which gained more than 19% last year, has a 3.65% dividend yield. "They're pointing to 6% to 7% long-term annual earnings growth, along with dividends growing in lockstep to their earnings," Radke said.
Indian companies raised around 5.38 trillion rupees ($64.95 billion) through private placements in 2022, largely aided by the banking system's massive cash surplus, data showed. Public issues were only to the tune of around 80 billion rupees. Indian companies raised 127.1 billion rupees and 175.3 billion rupees through public issues in 2020 and 2021 respectively, SEBI data showed. Fundraising through private placement stood at 8 trillion rupees and 6.31 trillion rupees respectively. "I think public issues are rising because the repricing of bank fixed deposits was very gradual, while public issues are realigning to market realities much faster," said Sudhir Agrawal, executive vice president and fixed income fund manager at UTI Mutual Fund.
Mike Morey believe the stock market may retest its 2022 lows during the first half of the year. Despite the market chaos, there were two clear standouts that outperformed the broad market: the energy sector and defensive sectors, both of which fall under his area of expertise. The second fund, the Integrity Mid-North American Resources Fund (ICPAX), focuses on the energy sector. He favors defensive sectors such as healthcare, utilities, staples, and traditional telecommunications sectors, which are found in the IDIVX fund. ICPAX's top 10 holdings are Cheniere Energy, Diamondback Energy, OvintivInc., ExxonMobil Corp., Cactu, Nextier Oilfield., Halliburton, Enbridge, Champion, and Marathon Oil.
[1/3] Examples of Japanese yen banknotes are displayed at a media event in Tokyo, Japan, November 21, 2022. Those positions took a hit when Tuesday's Bank of Japan policy shift allowed 10-year yields to almost double to 0.47%. On Wednesday the long end of Japan's yield curve actually rallied, with 30-year yields down 2.5 bps to 1.545%. "The 10-year yield is still very low ... maybe they will invest in the 20-year." In Australia, where Japan is also the largest foreign player in the bond market, 10-year yields are up about 20 bps.
Pete Santoro is a fund manager and investment chief at Invesco who focuses on dividend stocks. His brief includes a management slot in the firm's Dividend Income Fund, which went through a real turnaround not long after he joined. "I think investors are rediscovering the financial benefits of dividend-paying stocks in a market that is favoring income over riskier growth companies," Santoro told Insider in a recent interview. Dividend investing strategy in a volatile marketSantoro, like many dividend-focused experts, says it's not enough to buy shares of companies that pay high-percentage dividends. "We believe investors should focus on quality companies with growing free cash flows, growing dividends, and capital discipline," he said.
[1/2] A worker shelters from the rain under a Union Flag umbrella as he passes the London Stock Exchange in London, Britain, October 1, 2008. An investor in Wood Group (WG.L), an oilfield services company, urged the company to buy back some of its own shares to avoid being a target. The domestically-focused FTSE 250 (.FTMC) is down by almost a fifth this year while the internationally-focused blue-chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) is up 0.8% thanks to a drop in the pound. A currency advantage alone does not necessarily kick-start deals though, according to Owain Evans, co-head of UK M&A for Goldman Sachs. "Large corporates continue to look at 'bolt-ons', where they can draw on existing facilities to do those deals, that's why the mid-cap space is attractive to the strategics in this environment," said Celia Murray, head of UK M&A at JPMorgan.
Funds tied to China, like the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) , have made significant rebounds on the China reopening. "All eyes are on China," Tom Lydon, vice chairman of VettaFi, told Dominic Chu on CNBC's "ETF Edge" on Monday. China aside, fixed income funds are also seeing an end-of-year pop as more investors seek out opportunities for tax-loss harvesting plays. Its income-focused product, GraniteShares HIPS US High Income ETF (HIPS) provides exposure to four of the highest-yielding securities across alternative income: MLPs, REITs, BDCs and closed-end funds. The JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI) seeks to provide a majority of the returns tied to the S&P 500 Index, while the Nationwide Risk-Managed Income ETF (NUSI) replicates the Nasdaq-100.
King Dollar is not ready to abdicate
  + stars: | 2022-12-13 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
LONDON, Dec 13 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Dollar bears have come out of hibernation. An 11-year upswing has made the bill featuring George Washington the world’s most overvalued currency, according to research from Deutsche Bank. Plus, other risk factors that have sent investors fleeing to the dollar – the war in Ukraine, China’s Covid-19 struggles and fear of a deep recession in the United States – are abating. Traders moved to place bets against the dollar for the first time in 16 months in November, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. Net flows into fixed-income funds in the United States reached $1.3 trillion over the past 12 months, according to Deutsche Bank analysts.
According to data from Refinitiv Lipper, U.S. equity funds recorded withdrawals of $26.66 billion, the biggest weekly outflow since April 2021. Fund flows: US equity sector fundsMeanwhile, U.S. bond funds received a net $992 million in inflows after witnessing weekly outflows for four weeks. U.S. taxable bond funds had net purchases of $886 million after three weeks of selling in a row, although municipal bond funds suffered small outflows, amounting to $53 million. U.S. investors purchased high-yield bond funds of $318 million and government bond funds of $1.06 billion in their biggest weekly net purchase since Nov. 16. Fund flows: US bond fundsMeanwhile, U.S. money market funds obtained $36.19 billion in inflows, the biggest amount for a week since Nov. 2.
Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsThe central bank's outlook, which will accompany the rates decision, will be an important pointer to future policy moves, economists said. Global crude oil prices have been falling in recent months but has yet to be reflected in domestic prices. Sabnavis, who does not see the RBI reducing its inflation forecast, pointed out that though global oil prices have come down, the government has not relaxed duties or taxes. "Hence, the consumer is still paying the same price and has not derived any benefit from declining oil prices." Lower oil prices may also be countered by higher than expected food prices.
India cenbank hikes key policy rate by 35 basis points
  + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
However, the pace of rate hikes is reducing from 50 bps to 35 bps, in line with expected global hikes." The market needs to keep a close watch on global rate hikes and sticky core inflation." "We expect RBI to go for another 25 bps hike in its next policy, with the terminal rate at 6.5%. ANUJ PURI, CHAIRMAN, ANAROCK GROUP, MUMBAI"The 35 bps rate hike by the RBI - the fifth consecutive rate hike this year - comes as no surprise. We see a possibility of another 25 bps rate hike before a prolonged pause."
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