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Read previewGood news for the economy can be bad news for stocks, thanks to a weird quirk of market logic. Positive economic developments such as strong GDP growth, robust employment gains, and mild inflation tend to drive stocks higher in the long run. Yet their implications for interest rates have mattered more to stocks in recent months. That buoys stocks by fueling spending across the economy and demand for risk assets. It's bizarre that some stock investors are now hoping for the economy to soften so the Fed will start cutting rates, even though a booming economy is good news for stocks.
Persons: , hasn't, they've, Jerome Powell Organizations: Service, Business, Federal Reserve, Wall, Swissquote Bank
In contrast, monetary policy refers to actions taken by a country's authority on money — the Federal Reserve in the U.S. — to reach a desired economic outcome. Fiscal policy and monetary policy are implemented independently, even as one impacts the other. Expansionary fiscal policy combined with contractionary monetary policy. Contractionary fiscal policy combined with expansionary monetary policy. Now consider a situation in which the Fed is easing its monetary policy while Washington raises taxes, thus reducing after-tax income.
Persons: it's, we've, Apple, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: Federal, White House, nab, Federal Reserve, U.S, CNBC, Treasury, Fed, Companies, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: U.S, Washington
Britain Is Cutting Taxes Again. Why Now?
  + stars: | 2024-03-07 | by ( Eshe Nelson | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
This year, Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor of the Exchequer, had to consider another priority: the upcoming general election. And so on Wednesday, Mr. Hunt announced that he would cut taxes for nearly 30 million workers. It will save the typical employee about 900 pounds ($1,145) a year, Mr. Hunt said. That’s because the tax cuts announced by the Conservative Party are smaller and, crucially, offset partly by some other tax increases. And Mr. Hunt didn’t announce much additional spending.
Persons: Jeremy Hunt, Hunt, Liz Truss, Hunt didn’t Organizations: National Insurance, Conservative Party
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewChina is laying out ambitious growth goals for 2024, and Beijing knows they'll be hard to hit. China — the world's second-largest economy — is targeting economic growth of around 5% this year, Li Qiang, the country's premier, announced on Tuesday. "Achieving the 'around 5%' growth target will be very challenging," Nomura economists wrote in a note on Tuesday. Economists are watching to see whether Beijing will inject more stimulus into its economy to help it hit its 5% growth target.
Persons: , they'll, Li Qiang, Li, Nomura, Lynn Song Organizations: Service, Business, National People's, ING, Nomura, Deutsche, Seng China Enterprises Locations: China, Beijing, Greater China, Hong Kong
He seems to have been a very good father, but his political worldview was predicated on a deep pessimism. The Republican Party in the 1920s, ’30s and early ’40s was steeped in pessimism, and that pessimism showed up as it often does: as nativism, isolationism and protectionism. As World War II loomed, Senator Gerald Nye urged the passage of several neutrality acts to keep us from exporting arms to warring nations and opposed Lend-Lease to Britain. That version of the Republican Party ended in 1952, when Dwight Eisenhower defeated Taft for the Republican presidential nomination. Howard Buffett was so dismayed by the outcome that he refused to endorse Ike, his party leader.
Persons: I’ve, Warren Buffett’s, Howard Buffett, Franklin Roosevelt, George Marshall, Buffett, Johnson, Gerald Nye, Robert Taft, Dwight Eisenhower, Taft, Ike Organizations: Democrats, Republican Party, Reed, Lease, United States, Marshall Plan, NATO, World Bank, Republican, John Birch Society Locations: Nebraska, United States, Britain, America
As investors ponder how — and where — to invest in this uncertain climate, CNBC Pro asked market experts where they recommend allocating $100,000. "By investing purely in cash and fixed income, you can already get a decent return," Jia said. And with global central banks cutting rates, fixed income will likely benefit from capital gains as well because of the duration." Within fixed income, Jia likes government bonds from developed countries and investment-grade bonds from "reputable firms," which offer "quality" and "longer-term growth" potential. Investors nearing retirement, for instance, should have a more conservative portfolio mix of 80% in fixed income and 20% in equities, according to Jia.
Persons: Paul Christopher —, Christopher, Kevin Teng, Teng, Morgan Stanley, Rickie Jia, Jia, Group's Teng, Pictet's Jia Organizations: Treasury, Wells Fargo Investment, CNBC Pro, Wrise Wealth Management Singapore, U.S . Federal Reserve, Microsoft, Pictet Wealth Management Locations: Wells Fargo, Asia, East, Europe, U.S
Berkshire is making bank on bonds, and its $168 billion cash pile is worth more than Uber or Nike. Assets aplentyBerkshire held $561 billion of net assets at the end of December, a 19% increase from a year earlier. Berkshire's $1 trillion-plus of assets included $354 billion of stocks, $178 billion of property and equipment, $130 billion of Treasury bills, and $24 billion of inventories. That figure is larger than the value of General Electric ($167 billion), Comcast ($166 billion), Uber ($162 billion), Nike ($160 billion), Walmart ($159 billion), American Express ($156 billion), or Pfizer ($155 billion). The upshot is that on December 31, Berkshire held $354 billion of stocks, and $168 billion of cash and other short-term investments — a ratio of nearly 2:1.
Persons: Warren Buffett's, Buffett, , Warren Buffett, you'd, Cash, Treasuries, Charlie Munger Organizations: Berkshire Hathaway's, Nike, Service, Berkshire Hathaway, Berkshire, aplenty, Berkshire's, Electric, Comcast, Walmart, American Express, Pfizer, Federal Reserve Locations: Berkshire, aplenty Berkshire, Omaha
Yen sinks as currency traders keep short and carry on
  + stars: | 2024-02-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The yen is the worst-performing G10 currency this year, with a 6.4% slide on the dollar. For the week the yen is down 0.6% on the euro, touching its weakest for three months overnight at 163.45 per euro . Yen moves against the dollar were more modest due to the risk its slide could prompt intervention in markets from Japan, with officials reminding traders they stand ready in recent days. The dollar gained 0.1% to trade at 150.41 yen this week. Investors can earn interest, or carry, by borrowing yen around 0% and buying income-bearing assets in other currencies.
Persons: Moh Siong Sim, Sterling, Christine Lagarde, Christopher Waller Organizations: New, Deutsche, Britain, of Singapore, U.S, European Central Bank Locations: Japan, New Zealand, Friday's Asia, U.S, Europe
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S & P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite each snapped a five-week advance. On average, market strategists on Wall Street anticipate the S & P 500 will end the year at 4,936, according to a CNBC survey . The equal-weighted S & P 500 index is up just 1.7% in 2024, trailing far behind the market-cap weighted benchmark. Initial Claims (02/17) 9:45 a.m. PMI Composite preliminary (February) 9:45 a.m. S & P PMI Manufacturing preliminary (February) 9:45 a.m. S & P PMI Services preliminary (February) 10 a.m. Existing Homes Sales (January) Earnings: Booking Holdings , Live Nation Entertainment , Intuit , Edison International , Dominion Energy , Moderna , PG & E , Keurig Dr. Pepper Friday, February 23, 2024 Earnings: Warner Bros.
Persons: chipmaker, Ayako Yoshioka, Yoshioka, Jerome Powell, Josh Emanuel, everybody's, Emanuel, Russell, They're, Chris Chen, Chen, Dr, Pepper, Nick Wells, Kif Leswing Organizations: Nvidia, CNBC, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Investor, Treasury, Wilshire Associates, American Association of, Insight Financial, Walmart, Home, Alto Networks, Diamondback Energy, Caesars Entertainment, Marathon, Devices, Chicago, PMI, Holdings, Nation Entertainment, Intuit, Edison International, Dominion Energy, Moderna, Warner Bros Locations: U.S, Santa Monica, Calif
Billionaire investor Leon Cooperman forecasts that the stock market and its hefty valuations could see losses this year, while long-duration Treasury yields could test higher again. Forget the six times that the market was discounting, but I think the long end will go up," Cooperman said. Cooperman pointed out that the S & P 500 is now trading at 21 times forward earnings, which seems unsustainable. Not a buyer of bonds Another factor that could drive long rates higher is the burgeoning U.S. fiscal deficits, Cooperman added. "I think we're going to have inflation," Cooperman said.
Persons: Leon, Cooperman, Jerome Powell, Powell, Paul Tudor Jones, he's Organizations: Omega Family Office, Reserve, CBS Locations: U.S
STAVANGER (AP) — Norway’s oil fund reported the largest annual return in its history Tuesday, a performance led by U.S. technology companies and Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk, which makes the diabetes-turned-weight loss drug Ozempic. Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global, the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund, said it also benefited in 2023 from market excitement over the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence technology such as ChatGPT. The six largest contributors to the fund’s growth were the U.S technology companies Microsoft, Apple, NVIDIA, Meta, Amazon and Alphabet. Nova Nordisk also makes a higher dose version of the same medication that is sold as a weight loss drug under the brand name Wegovy. Political Cartoons View All 253 ImagesThe Government Pension Fund Global, known commonly as the Oil Fund, invests Norway's profits from oil and gas, and owns around 1.5% of all the companies listed globally.
Persons: Nicolai Tangen, Tesla, Ozempic Organizations: STAVANGER, Novo Nordisk, Fund, Oil, Microsoft, Apple, NVIDIA, Meta, Nova Nordisk, Nordisk, Government Pension Fund, Oil Fund Locations: U.S, Danish, Norway’s, Norway, Denmark
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewAlthough China looks dead-set on another year of economic distress, its prospects are brighter than they seem, a former advisor to the People's Bank of China wrote. For this reason, it helps that China's economy faces two-pronged deflation, with both consumer and producer price indices in the red, Yongding wrote. That means Beijing can inject considerable fiscal stimulus without concerns about inflation. According to Yongding, China's infrastructure is still behind in critical sectors, such as healthcare, education, and transportation.
Persons: , Yu Yongding, Yongding Organizations: Service, People's Bank of China, Business, Project Syndicate, Monetary Locations: China, Beijing
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks with CNBC's Andrew Ross Sorkin at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland on Jan. 16th, 2024. The Zelenskyy family income fell almost threefold between 2021 and 2022, according to the declaration on the presidential website. In particular, in 2021, the process of registering 22 trademarks, which began long before his election as President of Ukraine, was completed," the president's first-ever public declaration of income said. In 2022, the Zelenskyy family income fell to 3.7 million hryvnias due to the "temporary termination of lease agreements on the territory of Ukraine as a result of the beginning of Russia's full-scale aggression." The family's cash balance at the end of 2022 dropped by almost 1.8 million hryvnias, the declaration said, while its asset, real estate and vehicle ownership was unchanged over the two years.
Persons: Volodymyr Zelenskyy, CNBC's Andrew Ross Sorkin, Zelenskyy Organizations: EU Locations: Davos, Switzerland, Ukraine, Russia
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Sunday published his income over a two-year period, as he looks to promote transparency as part of Kyiv's push for European Union membership. Ukraine formally started the screening process to begin talks over its future membership of the EU on Thursday, and faces stringent conditions to increase transparency and root out corruption. Zelenskyy has called for all public officials to disclose their incomes, while the U.S. and other allies supporting Ukraine's war effort have sought assurances about the country's efforts. According to the declaration, the president and his family members received 10.8 million hryvnias ($286,168) in 2021, the last year before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, down 12 million hryvnias from the previous year. The 2021 also included income from the sale of around $142,000 in government bonds.
Persons: Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Zelenskyy Organizations: European Union Locations: Ukraine, U.S
(Reuters) - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy made public his income over a two-year period on Sunday as part of a drive to promote transparency and root out endemic corruption. In a post on the presidential website, Zelenskiy noted that his income had declined in 2021 and further in 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine at the end of February. In 2021, the year before the invasion, Zelenskiy and his family reported income of 10.8 million hryvnias ($286,168), down 12 million hryvnias from the previous year. In 2022, the Zelenskiy family’s income fell further to 3.7 million hryvnias as he earned less rental income from real estate he owned because of the outbreak of the war. Ukraine's National Agency on Corruption Prevention, one of several bodies devoted to exposing and eliminating graft, last month reopened to public scrutiny a register on declared income.
Persons: Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Zelenskiy, Ron Popeski, Oleksandr Kozhukhar, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Reuters, European Union, International Monetary Fund, National Agency on Corruption Locations: Russia, Ukraine
Starting Feb. 5, the People's Bank of China will allow banks to hold smaller cash reserves, central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said at a press conference, his first in the role. Cutting the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points is set to release 1 trillion yuan ($139.8 billion) in long-term capital, the central bank said. A 2 trillion yuan boost? Chinese Premier Li Qiang on Monday called for much stronger measures to boost market stability and confidence, according to an official readout. Chinese authorities in October already announced the issuance of 1 trillion yuan in government bonds, alongside a rare increase in the deficit.
Persons: Gongsheng, Pan Gongsheng, Tao Wang, Ting Lu, a, Lu, Wang, Stocks, Winnie Wu, That's, Li Qiang, Pan, Philip Yin, David Chao, Pan's Organizations: People's Bank of China, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Financial, Getty, Visual China, People's Bank of, UBS Investment Bank, Wednesday, National Financial Regulatory Administration, UBS, Bank of America's, Bloomberg, PBOC, Citi, U.S, Asia Pacific, CNBC Locations: BEIJING, CHINA, Beijing, China, People's Bank of China, Asia, Hong Kong, capitulating, Japan, Invesco
The Shenzhen Component Index, a tech-heavy benchmark, had its worst day in nearly two years, plunging 3.5%. It’s the worst start to a year for Chinese stocks since 2016, when investors were ditching their holdings following a market crash in 2015. The country’s economy grew by 5.2% last year. That beat government projections but is still one of China’s worst economic performances in over three decades. The International Monetary Fund forecasts the country’s economic growth to slow to 4.2% this year.
Persons: Ken Cheung, , Europe’s, Premier Li Qiang, Brian Martin, Daniel Hynes, Li, , ” Stephen Innes, managing Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Shenzhen Component, Mizuho Bank, CSI, Nikkei, Premier, Economic, ANZ Research, Monetary Fund, China’s Commerce Ministry, Investors Locations: Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, China, United States
An inverted yield curve has preceded every recession since 1969. When the yield curve inverted in November 2022, he said it was a false signal. AdvertisementWall Street has ramped up its soft-landing calls for 2024, but a renowned economic expert who popularized the most famous recession indicator in markets says to expect a downturn this year. He said the inverted yield curve, in one sense, is a self-fulfilling prophecy as it signals to companies and investors that a slowdown is looming, which then alters spending and business behavior and ultimately leads to less activity. Advertisement"It makes the yield curve causal," Harvey said.
Persons: , Campbell Harvey, Harvey, Jack Farley, he's Organizations: Service, Duke University, Federal Locations: Canadian
London CNN —World leaders are flocking to Davos this week to pontificate on the planet’s most pressing problems. Even in the absence of a new crisis, soaring debt servicing costs will constrain efforts to tackle climate change and care for aging populations. Mortgage rates and other borrowing costs soared as investors demanded much higher premiums for owning UK debt. Mounting debt and political brinksmanship have already taken their toll on America’s credit rating, which typically affects borrowing costs for the government, businesses and households. And that would increase the government’s borrowing costs.
Persons: worryingly, Michael Saunders, , Saunders, that’s, Liz Truss, Dave Ramsden, Fitch, Moody’s, Raghuram Rajan, “ It’s, ” Rajan, Anna Cooban Organizations: London CNN —, Bank, CNN, Oxford Economics, Bank of England, AAA, States ’, Reserve Bank of India, Labour Party, Treasury Department, Federal, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Locations: Davos, Kingdom, Argentina, States, United States, Switzerland
Investors poured cash into these fixed income ETFs in 2023
  + stars: | 2024-01-09 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +6 min
The Federal Reserve's monetary policy set the tone for the fixed income world in 2023 – right down to which exchange traded funds investors picked to take advantage of higher interest rates. Bond yields have an inverse relationship to their prices, so that when prices decline, yields rise and vice versa. The Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) was another favorite of investors, with about $7.3 billion in net flows in 2023. Indeed, those strategies proved popular with investors in 2023, as the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) and iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) were ETFs with the second and third highest net flows, per Morningstar.
Persons: It's, Paul Olmsted, Matthew Bartolini, Olmsted, Morningstar, , it's, BND, AGG Organizations: Investors, Bloomberg Finance, State Street Global Advisors, Morningstar, SPDR, SPDR Americas Research, Street Global Advisors, State, Treasury Bond ETF, Bloomberg, SGOV, SEC, Treasury, Fed, Vanguard, Bond Market, Core, Aggregate Bond Locations: SPDR Americas, Central
Investors will be able purchase pieces of corporate bonds, Treasurys and eventually, municipal bonds. The idea is to open up opportunities to investors who don't want to spend upward of $1,000 on single corporate bonds. While retail investors can buy individual corporate bonds through brokerages, they often opt for mutual funds or exchange-traded funds, which offer baskets of diversified bond securities. The iShares Broad USD Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (USIG) , for instance, tracks the ICE BofA U.S. Corporate Index. For corporate bonds, he suggests looking at actively managed funds, particularly for noninvestment grade and municipal bonds.
Persons: Sam Nofzinger, Nofzinger, Chuck Failla, I'm, Tom Kaiser, Failla Organizations: Public, Corporate, ICE, Sovereign Financial Group, Brock Investment Advisors, Apple, Microsoft, BlackRock Locations: brokerages, TreasuryDirect
Moody's Investors Service slashed its outlook for Chinese government bonds to negative on Tuesday. Beijing has rolled out stimulus packages and ramped up borrowing in a bid to support the embattled Chinese economy in 2023. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementMoody's Investors Service slashed its outlook for China's credit rating on Tuesday, dealing a fresh blow to the world's second-largest economy. Moody's cited stagnant growth and a seemingly never-ending property crisis as factors that could hamper Beijing's ability to repay its debts.
Persons: , Moody's, that's, , Read, It's Organizations: Moody's, Service, China's Ministry, Finance, Bloomberg, CSI Locations: Beijing, China, Moody's
Stock Market Today: Futures Slip; Chinese Stocks Sink
  + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +1 min
That appears to be the verdict of stock investors, who sent the CSI 300 Index down 1.9% to its lowest level in almost five years. Adding to the gloom: after Chinese markets closed, Moody’s Investors Service cut its outlook on the country’s credit rating to negative . The ratings company said financial lifelines extended by the government to distressed regions and companies are harming the economy. China’s lackluster growth since the end of pandemic lockdowns has weighed on the stock market: The CSI 300 has fallen about 12% this year. Trading at about $79 a barrel, benchmark Brent crude was on track to snap a three-day losing streak.
Persons: Hong, Dow Organizations: CSI, Moody’s, Service, Dow industrials, Nasdaq, Brent Locations: China
It has been predominantly used by life insurers, because they need to boost their investment returns with cheap funding to meet long-term liabilities. They provide the cheap funding to banks and insurers in exchange for collateral to ensure they get their money back. Insurers are entitled to tap FHLB funding. Insurers’ borrowing from FHLBs picked up in 2008 financial crisis, as those that spread themselves thin with aggressive investments scrambled for cash. They did not explain why insurers need FHLB funding to invest in mortgages.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Ryan Donovan, CMBS, Lawrence White, White, Graphics JUICING, Cynthia Beaulieu, Cornelius Hurley, Hurley, FHLBs, , Michael Ericson, Jack Dolan, Koh Qui, Greg Roumeliotis, Anna Driver Organizations: REUTERS, Loan, Federal Housing Finance Agency, of Federal Home Loan, FHLBs, FHLB, National Association of Insurance, New York University, MetLife Inc, Equitable Holdings Inc, Corebridge, Brighthouse Financial, MetLife, TIAA, Equitable, Graphics, Wellington Management, Boston University School of Law, Coalition, Silicon Valley Bank, First, American, of, Insurance Coalition, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, Boston, Silicon, First Republic, Chicago, New York
Bank of England drags Bagehot into the shadows
  + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Liam Proud | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +8 min
That is no longer tenable, in part because of reforms to bank regulation that shifted activity from traditional lenders to financial market players. These days, the institutions in need of urgent liquidity are just as likely to be pension funds, insurers or hedge funds. The British central bank’s initial ideas make sense, but only solve part of the problem. The central bank can short-circuit the panic by opening the credit taps. Central banks are only just starting to grapple with what it means to be a lender of last resort in that context.
Persons: Walter Bagehot’s, Andrew Hauser, BoE, WALTER, Gurney, Peter Thal Larsen, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Bank of England, Reuters Graphics Reuters, U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Pensions, . Treasury, Citadel, Millennium Management, City of, U.S . Federal, Gurney & Company, Victorian, Thomson Locations: British, City, City of London, Basel, Overend, Lombard
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