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And yet Wall Street is suddenly freaking out about bad real estate loans and empty office buildings. One regional lender — New York Community Bancorp — has seen its stock price implode and its credit rating slashed to junk in part because of its exposure to bad office loans. Japan’s Aozora Bank startled investors by blaming bad loans linked to US offices for a projected loss. That’s a major problem for an industry like real estate known for piling on debt. Importantly, Zandi said these bank failures will be limited to smaller lenders — the ones sitting on suddenly shaky office loans.
Persons: , ” they’re, It’s, , Ed Mills, Raymond James, gameplan, Paul Volcker, That’s, Spencer Platt, ” Alessandro DiNello, NYCB, Powell, Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, , ” Mills, Mark Zandi, ” Zandi, Zandi, ” Banks Organizations: New, New York CNN, , York Community Bancorp, Japan’s, Bank, Federal Reserve, Fed, Regulators, New York Community Bancorp, York Community Bank, Getty, Moody’s, CNN Locations: New York, sweatpants, Washington, Brooklyn, New York City
He replaced Yi Huiman, who presided over months of turmoil as share markets slumped, losing trillions of dollars of value. Earlier this week, the CSRC said that it was cracking down on insider trading, market manipulation and other crimes and would protect small investors. A state investment fund pledged to step up buying of exchange-traded funds and regulators also imposed limits on short-selling. Prolonged weakness in the property market and share prices has dented consumer confidence, hindering that transition. Given the selloff in the stock market, “many could be tempted to take their loss and walk away in the slightest recovery.
Persons: Wu Qing, Yi Huiman, Swissquote, Wu, , Xi Jinping, ” Ozkardeskaya Organizations: Shanghai Stock Exchange, Communist Party, China Securities Regulatory Commission, Xinhua News Agency, Investors, , Authorities Locations: BANGKOK, Wu, China, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing
One key Chinese bank used by Russian importers for transactions has halted all transactions with Russian firms, per Vedomosti. AdvertisementChina's banks appear to be having cold feet about dealing with Russian firms. AdvertisementOther Chinese banks are also tightening compliance checks when dealing with Russian businesses, per the media outlet. However, with the West ramping up sanctions against Russia, even Chinese firms are trying to stay out of trouble. In June, at least one major Chinese bank — Bank of China — started restricting transfers from Russia.
Persons: , Dmitry Peskov, Peskov, — Bank of China — Organizations: Service, Commercial, Bank, SWIFT, Russia, Bloomberg, — Bank of, Zhejiang Chouzhou Commercial Bank, Business Locations: Ukraine, Beijing, Zhejiang, Russian, AFP, Russia, — Bank of China, Zhejiang Chouzhou
Consumer prices fell last month in China by the most since the global financial crisis in 2009, the latest sign that weak spending and a glut of output from factories and farms are forcing businesses to offer discounts. The decline in consumer prices was mostly confined to food and electric cars. But wholesale prices charged by factories and other producers also fell last month, and have been down from their levels a year earlier in every month since October 2022. A broad decline in the overall level of prices, a phenomenon known as deflation, could be very troublesome for the economy. Falling prices make it hard for households and companies to keep up on monthly payments for mortgages, corporate loans and other debts.
Persons: , Eswar Prasad Organizations: Cornell University Locations: China
Credit expanded by just 0.4% in the month, according to the Federal Reserve’s monthly credit report released Wednesday. And it still leaves consumers with record levels of credit card debt. Of that, credit card balances grew by $212 billion to $1.13 trillion, while mortgage balances rose by $112 billion to $12.25 trillion. “Credit card and auto loan transitions into delinquency are still rising above pre-pandemic levels,” said Wilbert van der Klaauw, economic research advisor at the New York Fed. Average card balances rose by 10% from a year ago to $6,360, a record.
Persons: , Wilbert van der, TransUnion, Michele Raneri, Scott Haymore, “ Deleveraging, Wells Fargo Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Auto, New York Fed, millennials, TransUnion, TD Bank Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Wells Fargo
Other economists say Russia is pumping the economy with one-time, unproductive investments that yield limited future benefit. 'NOT ALL GROWTH IS GOOD'The International Monetary Fund expects Russia's economy to grow faster than all G7 economies this year but less than emerging European economies. Military expenditure has supported economic growth of countries at war throughout history. According to Rosstat, Russia's labour productivity index, one of Putin's key national development goals, fell 3.6% year-on-year in 2022, its steepest annual fall since the aftermath of the global financial crisis in 2009. "I don't see current economic growth as lasting or qualitative," said Nadorshin.
Persons: Darya Korsunskaya, Alexander Marrow, Vladimir Putin, Sergei Khestanov, Alexandra Suslina, CAMAC, Rosstat, Anton Kotyakov, Yevgeny Nadorshin, Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, Darya, Gareth Jones Organizations: Statistics, Reuters, Soviet Union, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Labour, PF, Central Bank Governor Locations: Russia, Ukraine
But while the last crisis was all about interest rate risk, this one revolves around the $20 trillion commercial real estate market. What’s happening: After decades of growth bolstered by low interest rates and easy credit, commercial real estate has hit a wall. The increase was driven partly by expected losses on commercial real estate loans, it said. “As losses from a [commercial real estate] loan portfolio accumulate, they can spill over into the broader financial system,” they wrote. “There’s some smaller and regional banks that have concentrated exposures in these areas that are challenged and we’re working with them,” he said.
Persons: It’s, Goldman Sachs, Anna Cooban, Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, Gary Gensler, , Chip Somodevilla, She’s, Powell, , ” McDonald’s, McDonald’s, Jordan Valinsky, Samantha Murphy Kelly, “ We’ve Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, New York Community Bancorp, US Regional Bank, Japan’s Aozora Bank, Deutsche Bank, Canadian Public Pension Investment Board, Boston Properties, US Securities and Exchange, Financial, Biden, Senate, CBS, Verizon, Old Telephone Service, landlines, UK, Consumers, CNN, California Public Utilities Commission Locations: New York, Manhattan, Boston, Washington ,, East, United States, California, France, California ”
GENEVA (AP) — UBS on Tuesday reported a fourth-quarter pretax loss of more than $750 million as the Swiss banking giant continued to integrate its longtime rival Credit Suisse after a government-orchestrated merger. UBS said it expects to complete the merger of Credit Suisse by the end of the second quarter this year, and the merger of the two banks’ Swiss operations by the end of the third quarter. For the year, UBS took in $77 billion in new assets across its wealth-management and personal and corporate banking segments. Woes at Credit Suisse — before the UBS merger — and the two U.S. banks unsettled global financial markets in 2023. UBS said revenues jumped 35% to nearly $10.9 billion in the fourth quarter.
Persons: , Sergio Ermotti Organizations: GENEVA, — UBS, Credit Suisse, SIX Group, UBS, U.S . Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Credit Suisse —, Locations: Swiss, Zurich, United States
"It's confined to office real estate," Eisman said in CNBC's " Squawk Box ." "Office real estate is confined to certain community banks and regional banks. It's not a big bank problem....I just don't see a systemic or big problem at this point that's going to hurt the economy." NYCB took over the failed Signature Bank during the regional bank crisis in 2023. "Office real estate is not big enough to have a real big negative effect on the economy," he said.
Persons: Steve Eisman, Eisman, NYCB, Neuberger Berman, he's Organizations: New York Community Bancorp, Bank Locations: CNBC's, NYCB
Vargas, a special education instructor, has been mired for months in various stages of interviews for three teaching jobs. Employers' hiring rate fell sharply in 2023, Zhao said. They'll often toss out some number around 40, he told BI. AdvertisementHitting the numbers on job applications is also a priority for Kevin Cash, who previously told BI he's applied to more than 1,200 jobs and has mostly been ghosted. She's accepted a part-time job and plans to teach private classes for students learning English as a second language.
Persons: , Lynne Vargas, Vargas, Daniel Zhao, Cory Stahle, Zhao, Josh Bersin, Debbie Lovich, Lovich, Royal Siu, They'll, Siu, it's, Kevin Cash, They're, Jeff Calnan, Indeed's Stahle, Stahle, She's Organizations: Service, Business, Employers, Federal, BI, Boston Consulting Group, Navy, US Air Force Locations: Middletown , New York, Seattle, Woburn , Massachusetts
Read previewA longtime JPMorgan executive who has kept a low public profile while cultivating a reputation as a successful trader with a talent for managing risk is emerging as a contender to succeed Jamie Dimon as chief executive. His new position through the internal shuffle has vaulted him more publicly and prominently into the most closely watched succession race on Wall Street. JPMorgan executive David Hudson told the publication that he returned to JPMorgan after working at Nomura in 2010 "to work for Troy." Rohrbaugh's other stops at JPMorgan have been head of global markets and head of macro markets. A senior JPMorgan executive who works with Rohrbaugh recalled that time during the pandemic.
Persons: , Jamie Dimon, Dimon, Troy Rohrbaugh, Jennifer Piepszak, Wall, Marianne Lake, Rohrbaugh, Goldman Sachs, Euromoney, Eddie Wen, David Hudson, He's, Gary Gensler's, Goldman, Cantor Fitzgerald, Tim Soulas, Cantor, Johns Hopkins, you've, he'll, Kaja Whitehouse, Alex Morrell Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Wall, Business, CIB, North America, Goldman, Nomura, Troy, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Global, Securities, Exchange, Banque Nationale, CooperNeff, Philadelphia Stock Exchange, World Trade Center, New York Daily News, Gilman School, Johns Hopkins University, Alpha Delta Phi, Baltimore Sun, Bloomberg Locations: Dimon, North, JPMorgan's, Canadian, Manhattan, Baltimore, Maryland, New York
Hong Kong CNN —Hong Kong on Tuesday formally began the process of enacting a controversial homegrown national security law in a move that could have deep ramifications for the city’s status as a global financial hub. Beijing’s national security crackdown of recent years has transformed once-freewheeling Hong Kong, silencing almost all dissent and jailing dozens of political opponents. Under Hong Kong’s mini-constitution agreed by the two powers, the city is required to enact laws to prohibit acts that endanger national security. “Foreign agents and Hong Kong independence ideas are still lurking in Hong Kong society.”Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee speaks during a press conference at government headquarters in Hong Kong on January 30, 2024. The new security law could bring further uncertainty for Hong Kong, which is striving to maintain its status as Asia’s premier financial hub following three years of strict Covid restrictions and Beijing’s national security crackdown.
Persons: Hong, it’s, John Lee, , It’s, we’ve, ” Lee, Lee, Peter Parks, Chris Tang, ” Tang, Tang Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Tuesday, Hong, CIA, British, Getty Locations: Hong Kong, Beijing, China, AFP, Hong Kong’s, East, West
Chinese flags and Hong Kong flags are hung in Tsim Sha Tsui district on Oct. 4, 2023 in Hong Kong, China. The Chinese government imposed a National Security Law in the special administrative region on June 30, 2020. Hong Kong's leader confirmed on Tuesday his intention to pass fresh national security laws soon, building on sweeping legislation Beijing imposed on the city in 2020, saying the city has the constitutional responsibility to impose the new laws. A consultation document will be released later on Tuesday, Lee said, and the government will attempt to pass the legislation "as soon as possible." Lee said freedoms would be safeguarded and the laws would meet international standards.
Persons: Hong Kong's, Lee Organizations: Security Law Locations: Hong Kong, Tsim Sha Tsui, China, Beijing
Lake, who co-led the consumer and community bank with Piepszak since 2021, will now have sole oversight of that segment. Piepszak and Rohrbaugh will take on day-to-day control of the corporate and investment bank, which Daniel Pinto has led since 2014. Jennifer Piepszak, a JPMorgan lifer, will leave the consumer side of the organization for her new role atop the commercial and investment bank. BIIIn her new role, Piepszak will have a chance to gain more experience on the wholesale side of the business. She joined the bank following her college graduation and spent 17 years in various finance roles across the investment bank.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, Jennifer Piepszak, Marianne Lake —, Dimon, Troy Rohrbaugh, Rohrbaugh, Daniel Pinto, Pinto, Dimon's, JPMorgan Pinto, Gordon Smith, Lake, Piepszak, JPMorgan.com Mary Callahan Erdoes, Erdoes, Morgan Stanley, James Gorman, Mike Mayo Organizations: JPMorgan Chase, Business, JPMorgan, Wall, First Locations: Piepszak, BII, Euromoney, Wells Fargo
There’s a shift underway in Asia that’s reverberating through global financial markets. Stocks stemmed their slide only when Beijing recently signaled its intention to intervene but remain far below previous highs. But there’s one unforeseen reversal already underway: a change in perception among investors about China and Japan. Seizing on this shift, Japan’s prime minister, Fumio Kishida, addressed more than 3,000 global financiers gathered in Hong Kong this week for a conference sponsored by Goldman Sachs. It was the first time a Japanese prime minister had given a keynote address at the event.
Persons: Stocks, Fumio Kishida, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Asia that’s, Nikkei Locations: Asia, China, Stocks, Beijing, Japan, Hong Kong
The Swiss government on Wednesday selected Stefan Walter, a 59-year-old German national who was director-general of the European Central Bank for the last decade, to head the Swiss financial authority known as FINMA. Swiss authorities feared the collapse of such a major lending institution could further roil global financial markets following the failure of two U.S. banks last year. The troubles at Credit Suisse threatened to unhinge Switzerland's position as a leading financial market, and the takeover left the country with only one internationally important bank: UBS. Political Cartoons View All 253 ImagesA parliamentary panel created after the government-orchestrated merger has been looking into the origins of the deal. Walter, who has a master's degree in international banking from Columbia University in New York, will start the job on April 1, the Swiss government said.
Persons: Stefan Walter, Walter, Urban Angehrn, Angehrn, Mark Branson, Marlene Amstad, ” Amstad, SRF, FINMA Organizations: GENEVA, UBS, Credit Suisse, Swiss, European Central Bank, Federal Council, Columbia University Locations: Swiss, U.S, British, New York
Hong Kong CNN —China has vowed to pump more money into the economy and further open its $64 trillion financial industry to international investors, as Beijing scrambles to restore confidence following a massive stock market rout. The astonishing losses, reminiscent of the last Chinese stock market crash of 2015-2016, highlight a crisis of confidence among investors concerned about the country’s future. It will allow Hong Kong banks to expand their businesses in mainland China and reduce the barriers to investing in mainland insurers. Last month, China Reform Holdings, a state-owned investment fund, announced it had bought tech-focused index funds to support the market. The brutal sell-off in Chinese stock markets has even forced some hedge fund managers to apologize for making wrong bets.
Persons: Li Yunze, , Pan Gongsheng, Goldman Sachs, Li, , Lam, Li Qiang, Wang Zhao, Premier Li Qiang, Stringer, Li Bei Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Administration of Financial, People’s Bank of, Buildings, New Champions, Getty, Premier, Xinhua, Reuters, Securities Daily, Social Security Fund, China Reform Holdings, Central Huijin Investment, Shanghai Banxia Investment Management Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, People’s Bank of China, Victoria Harbour, British, Tianjin, AFP, Central, Fuyang, China's, Anhui
Making banks safer would seem like an easy thing for Americans to agree on, especially after the wipeouts of the global financial crisis in 2007-09, followed by the failure last year of three big ones: Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank. A wide-ranging lobbying campaign by the nation’s biggest banks and their allies seems to be succeeding in beating back a proposal put forward last year by three federal agencies (the Federal Reserve, the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.) to require shareholders of big banks to put more of their own skin in the game — so that if things go bad the banks won’t have to drastically cut lending or turn to taxpayers for a bailout. “Candidly, my expectation is that there’s going to be a fairly significant softening of the capital proposal,” Keegan Ferguson, a director on the financial services team of Capstone, an advisory firm, told me. The backsliding appalls a lot of economists, among them Anat Admati, a professor of finance and economics at Stanford’s Graduate School of Business. Admati is a co-author with Martin Hellwig, a German economist, of a 2013 book on pretty much exactly this topic, “The Bankers’ New Clothes: What’s Wrong With Banking and What to Do About It.” (An updated edition of the book just came out.)
Persons: , ” Keegan Ferguson, Anat Admati, Martin Hellwig Organizations: Valley Bank, Signature Bank, First Republic Bank, Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, Capstone, Stanford’s Graduate School of Business Locations: German
Everything was getting bigger — its cultural influence, geopolitical ambition, population — and seemed poised to continue until the world was remade in China's image. But now China's economy is withering, and the future Beijing imagined is being cut down to size along with it. What Beijing does — or fails to do — to fight this malaise will determine the course of humanity for decades to come. China's deflation worries started in earnest in the summer. Years of overbuilding — by about double the population, according to some estimates — and slowing population growth caused prices to collapse .
Persons: Minxin Pei, there's, Charlene Chu, Autonomous Research Charlene Chu, Chu, Wei Yao, Générale, I'm, Ben Bernanke, Bernanke, Xi Jinping, Xie Huanchi, Société Générale's Yao, Yao, It's, , aren't, Logan Wright, Wright, Xi doesn't, Jinping, it's, Xi, Claremont's Pei, magnanimity Organizations: Claremont McKenna College, Autonomous Research, Federal Reserve, Getty Images Japan, Chinese Communist Party, Xi, CCP Locations: China, Beijing, dauphin, Xinhua, Japan, Xi's China, East Asia, Taiwan, Europe
An inverted yield curve has preceded every recession since 1969. When the yield curve inverted in November 2022, he said it was a false signal. AdvertisementWall Street has ramped up its soft-landing calls for 2024, but a renowned economic expert who popularized the most famous recession indicator in markets says to expect a downturn this year. He said the inverted yield curve, in one sense, is a self-fulfilling prophecy as it signals to companies and investors that a slowdown is looming, which then alters spending and business behavior and ultimately leads to less activity. Advertisement"It makes the yield curve causal," Harvey said.
Persons: , Campbell Harvey, Harvey, Jack Farley, he's Organizations: Service, Duke University, Federal Locations: Canadian
The last one was during the Great Recession, brought about by the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. The extended slump in bank lending comes as many Wall Street experts continue to project a pessimistic outlook for the economy, despite the surprisingly upbeat trend seen in 2023. Recession warningsThe US economy defied forecasters' gloomy predictions by dodging a recession last year, with strong consumer spending helping to prop up growth. AdvertisementBut not everyone on Wall Street is so cheerful. It might be a mild recession or a heavy recession," he added, noting it's possible that the downturn bites in 2024.
Persons: , Jeffrey Gundlach, Henry Kravis, David Rosenberg, Steve Hanke, Gary Shilling, Continentale, Janet Yellen, haven't, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, Hanke, Rosenberg, it'd Organizations: Service, Business, Governors, Federal, Wall, Louis Federal Reserve, Bank, Federal Reserve, Philadelphia Fed, JPMorgan, Fox Business Locations: Bank, Ukraine, Gaza
London CNN —Germany’s finance minister has shrugged off suggestions his country has once again become the “sick man” of Europe. Long the engine of growth in Europe, Germany’s economy shrank last year by 0.3%, likely the weakest performance among the region’s big countries. “I know what some of you are thinking: Germany probably is a sick man. Germany is not a sick man… Germany is a tired man after a short night,” Christian Lindner said at the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The country became known as the “sick man of Europe” in the late 1990s as its economy faltered and unemployment soared.
Persons: It’s, , , ” Christian Lindner, ” Lindner, ” Daniel Kral Organizations: London CNN —, Economic, Oxford Economics, Germany’s Federal, Office Locations: Europe, Germany, Davos, Switzerland, Germany’s, Ukraine, Moscow, Berlin, Russia, Red
Dividend stocks in the Asia-Pacific beat the broader market in the fourth quarter of 2023 — bucking the trend in other regions. According to Morgan Stanley, the MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan High Dividend Index outperformed the MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan index by 1.76% in the fourth quarter last year. For the Asia-Pacific ex Japan region, Morgan Stanley produced a screen of what it called its "conviction list" of dividend stocks, using these criteria on a 12-month forward-looking basis: Likely to outperform the MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan High Dividend Index. Low risk of having dividend cuts, as rated by Morgan Stanley analysts. Here are some stocks that appeared in Morgan Stanley's screen.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Morgan, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: MSCI Asia, Asia, Fed Locations: Asia, Pacific, MSCI Asia Pacific, Japan, Asia Pacific
But even the lesser label of specially designated global terrorist group could jeopardize U.S. and Saudi efforts to construct a lasting peace deal to end the conflict. The conflict created a humanitarian catastrophe that Mr. Biden, as a candidate in 2020, vowed to address. Following a debate within the Trump administration, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo designated the Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization and a specially designated global terrorist group in mid-January 2021. In February 2021, less than three weeks after Mr. Biden took office, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken reversed Mr. Pompeo’s designations. Asked by a reporter last week whether he considered the Houthis a terrorist group, Mr. Biden did not equivocate.
Persons: Biden, Yemen’s, Trump, Jake Sullivan, Tim Lenderking, Mike Pompeo, Antony J, Blinken, Tom Cotton, Mr, ” Mr, Cotton, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, , Organizations: U.S, State Department, Economic, Sana’a Center, Strategic Studies, United Arab Emirates, United Arab, U.S . Agency for International Development, United Nations, Associated Press, Republican, United Locations: Houthi, Yemen, Iran, U.S, United States, Saudi, Gaza, Israel, Davos, Switzerland, Al Qaeda, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Arkansas, United Arab
U.S. to Return Houthis to Terrorism List
  + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( Michael Crowley | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
The Biden administration plans to designate Yemen’s Houthi militia as a terrorist organization, partly reimposing penalties it lifted nearly three years ago on an Iran-backed group whose attacks on Red Sea shipping traffic have drawn a U.S. military response. Beginning in mid-February, the United States will consider the Houthis a “specially designated global terrorist” group, according to a U.S. official, blocking its access to the global financial system, among other penalties. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a policy that had not yet been officially announced. But Biden officials stopped short of applying a second, more severe designation — that of “foreign terrorist organization” — which the Trump administration imposed on the Houthis in its final days. The State Department revoked both designations shortly after President Biden took office in early 2021.
Persons: Yemen’s, Biden, Trump Organizations: Biden, U.S, State Department Locations: Iran, U.S, United States
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