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The bank raised its 2024 S & P 500 target to 6,000 from 5,600. Goldman also raised its 12-month S & P 500 target to 6,300 from 6,000. But Goldman thinks ultimately earnings growth will lift markets further before the year is out. The S & P 500 is in the red for October so far. Analysts polled by FactSet expect S & P 500 earnings grew for a fifth straight quarter.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, That's, Goldman, David Kostin, Kostin, Wells, Ken Gawrelski Organizations: Evercore ISI, CNBC, Federal Reserve, FactSet, North America Retail Locations: Friday's
See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. 30-Year Mortgage Rates TodayAverage 30-year mortgage rates are hovering near 6% today, according to Zillow data. 15-Year Mortgage Rates TodayAverage 15-year mortgage rates remain in the low 5% range, according to Zillow data. Average Refinance Mortgage Rates TodayRefinance rates have inched up after dropping in September. 5-Year Mortgage Rate TrendsHere's how 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates have trended over the last five years, according to Freddie Mac data.
Persons: they're, they've, you'll, Freddie Mac, it's, They'll Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Federal, Zillow, Fed Locations: U.S, Chevron
Since the Fed will likely be able to take a slower approach to lowering rates, mortgage rates are unlikely to go down further this year. Current 30-Year Mortgage RatesAverage 30-year mortgage rates are around 6%, according to Zillow data. In September, 30-year refinance rates averaged 5.89%, while 15-year refinance rates were around 5.19%. Mortgage rates are determined by a variety of different factors, including larger economic trends, Federal Reserve policy, your state's current mortgage rates, the type of loan you're getting, and your personal financial profile. Now that the Fed has cut rates, mortgage rates may not drop much in October.
Persons: they're, you'll, Freddie Mac, it's, they've Organizations: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal, Zillow, Fed Locations: U.S, Chevron
Yet, as markets eye a soft landing, potential shocks pose a higher risk to investors, David Kelly says. The firm's chief global strategist says the promise of a soft landing has encouraged Americans to pour into riskier assets at the exact time they shouldn't be. "I will say that although I think this is positive for the equity market, I am getting increasingly queasy about the fact that the equity market keeps on pricing in a soft landing," Kelly told Business Insider. He said that as the market prices in a soft landing, valuations rise, which means any shock to the market could send asset prices tumbling. According to Fed data, the total aggregate wealth of American households grew by about $50 trillion in the last five years.
Persons: David Kelly, , Kelly, shouldn't, you've, payrolls Organizations: Service, Asset, Business, Federal
What a hot job market means for inflation
  + stars: | 2024-10-06 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
New York CNN —The US job market is still piping hot. That comes after the Federal Reserve last month cut interest rates by a jumbo half-point, signaling that it is turning its attention from tamping down inflation to keeping the job market steady. But some warn that a still-strong labor market could make it more difficult for inflation to continue cooling. That’s because a low unemployment rate and hot job market underline a strong American consumer, whose spending helps drive up the cost of goods and services. Consumer inflation eased to its slowest annual pace since February 2021 in August, continuing a trend of cooling down in recent months.
Persons: FactSet, , Seema Shah, , Gina Bolvin Organizations: New, New York CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Investors, , Fed, Asset Management, Labor Statistics, Bolvin Wealth Management Group, International Longshoremen’s Association, United States Maritime Alliance Locations: New York, July’s, Israel, Iran, Russia, Ukraine
The upcoming inflation report will help determine the Fed's next move. Friday's surprisingly strong jobs data has slashed bets of a half-point rate cut. AdvertisementBut with September's jobs report crushing expectations, concerns may have been premature. AdvertisementHow inflation data could compound these forecasts will be known on Thursday, when the CPI report comes out. Still, with inflation still slightly above the central bank's 2% target , some analysts are cautioning investors not to forget about price pressures.
Persons: Friday's, , it's, they're, Mohamed El, Erian, Brian Rose, Seema Shah Organizations: UBS, Service, US, Bloomberg, CPI, Fed, Bank of America, Barclays
The jobs market had a very strong September
  + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
The Fed is pivoting away from fighting inflation to supporting the labor market. The encouraging numbers doubled down on a labor market that's showing signs of strength after a slowdown. The Federal Reserve signaled a pivot from fighting inflation to supporting the job market with a 50-basis-point interest rate cut in mid-September, the first cut in four years. AdvertisementWage growth was another highlight for the labor market in September. The latest jobs report didn't just indicate a strong September.
Persons: , Glen Smith Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, BLS, GDS Wealth Management, Fed
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email‘Fed not done cutting’ after stronger-than-expected jobs report, Fedwatch Advisors’ Ben Emons saysBen Emons, FedWatch Advisors chief investment officer & founder, joins 'Fast Money' with the traders to discuss the markets post jobs report.
Persons: ’ Ben Emons, Ben Emons Organizations: FedWatch Advisors
Over the last few months, mortgage rates have dropped dramatically, going from near 7% to below 6%. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. You can calculate this by dividing your closing costs by the amount you're saving on your monthly mortgage payment. 5-Year Mortgage Rate TrendsHere's how 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates have trended over the last five years, according to Freddie Mac data. Now that the Fed has started lowering its benchmark rate, mortgage rates are down.
Persons: they've, Freddie Mac Organizations: ADP, Federal Reserve, Zillow, ARM, Federal Housing Administration, Department of Veterans Affairs, Fed Locations: Chevron
"It also increases the possibility of a no-landing as well, meaning even stronger economic data for 2025 than we currently expect." watch nowBeyond that, it virtually eliminated any chance that the Federal Reserve would be repeating its half percentage point interest rate cut from September anytime soon. But broadly speaking, the news was very good and raised questions over just how aggressive the Fed will need to be. Jones said the Fed will have a dilemma on its hand as it figures out the proper policy response. "In an election year, passions run high and every economic report or event can garner intense reaction.
Persons: Anna Rose Layden, We've, Beth Ann Bovino, Friday's nonfarm, Dow Jones, Bovino, David Royal, Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab, Jones, they're, Elizabeth Renter Organizations: Outfitters, Getty, Federal Reserve, U.S . Bank, Fed, Fed Bank of America, Wall, U.S Locations: Tysons , Virginia, U.S
US stocks rose 1% and the Dow hit a record as the jobs report alleviated slowdown worries. AdvertisementUS stocks surged about 1% on Friday after the September jobs report soothed fears of an economic slowdown. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, odds of a 50-basis point cut dropped to 0% from 53% last week. Consensus now expects two 25-basis point rate cuts from the Fed at their next two FOMC meetings before year-end. ING's chief economist, James Knightley, said the jobs report was "unambiguously strong."
Persons: , Dow, Sonu Varghese, Jeffrey Roach, James Knightley, Knightley Organizations: Dow, Service, Federal, Fed, Financial Locations: Here's
Treasury yields dip ahead of September jobs report
  + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
The 10-year Treasury yield was lower by one basis point at 3.84%, while the yield on the 2-year Treasury was also one basis point lower at 3.697%. U.S. Treasury yields were slightly lower early Friday as investors gear up for the closely watched September jobs report. Treasury yields rose on Thursday after ADP data showed private payrolls grew by more than expected in September. Private companies added 143,000 jobs, ahead of August's figure of 103,000 and a forecast of 128,000. That was given as justification for the jumbo 50-basis-point interest rate cut carried out by the Fed last month.
Persons: Dow Jones, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Fed
US stocks surged after the September jobs report exceeded expectations with 254,000 jobs added. Wage growth saw a resurgence, with average hourly earnings rising 0.4% month-over-month. AdvertisementUS stocks surged on Friday after the September jobs report blew past economist estimates. The chances of a 50 basis point cut plunged to 10% after the jobs report was released, compared to 53% last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Another strong aspect of the jobs report was wage gains, according to Capital Economics.
Persons: , James Knightley, Knightley, Paul Ashworth Organizations: Service, ING, Federal Reserve, Capital Economics
AdvertisementThe September jobs report offered good news all around — except to those expecting a second straight jumbo 50-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve next month. In addition, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%, bucking estimates that it would stay unchanged at 4.2%. Analysts agree that September's blowout job numbers make an aggressive interest rate cut harder to justify. Advertisement"Did the Fed even need to cut rates in September, let alone cut by 50 basis points?" Late last month, the bank predicted that investors would take on more risk if the unemployment rate hit 4.1% and if payrolls reached above 150,000.
Persons: , Seema Shah, Glen Smith, Morgan Stanley, payrolls, Smith Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Asset Management, GDS Wealth Management, Federal
Indexes edged lower Thursday as investors assessed jobless claims and geopolitical tensions. On Friday, investors will get a fresh labor market update from the September nonfarm payrolls report. AdvertisementUS stocks inched lower on Thursday, fueled by an uptick in jobless claims ahead of a key jobs report and continued tensions in the Middle East. Analysts say the report will likely have a big influence on both markets and the Fed in the coming weeks. Advertisement"We think a soft employment report is likely to generate a larger market response vs a strong labor report," Bank of America analysts said in a Wednesday report.
Persons: , Israel Organizations: Service, Labor Department, Israel, Federal, Bank of America, Trump, RBC Locations: Iran
The euro languished not far from a three-week trough reached in the previous session, after normally hawkish European Central Bank policymaker Isabel Schnabel took a dovish tone on inflation, cementing bets for a rate cut this month. Currently, traders lay 34.6% odds of another 50 basis-point U.S. rate cut on Nov. 7, after the Fed kicked off its easing cycle with a super-sized reduction last month. "I do think that if the payrolls report overall is not too shabby tomorrow night, then we will see that pricing (for a 50 basis-point cut) coming in quite significantly." The dollar added 0.09% to 146.575 yen after earlier reaching 146.885 for the first time since Sept. 3. The euro was little changed at $1.10455, sitting not far from Wednesday's low of $1.10325, a level last seen on Sept. 12.
Persons: European Central Bank policymaker Isabel Schnabel, Ray Attrill, Attrill, Asahi Noguchi, Sterling Organizations: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Private U.S, ADP, Fed, National Australia Bank, Dovish Bank of Japan Locations: U.S, Iran, Israel
Gold rangebound as investors brace for key U.S. economic data
  + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices were trading in a tight range on Thursday as traders remained on the sidelines ahead of a key U.S. economic data that may provide clues about the size of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts expected later this year. Gold prices were trading in a tight range on Thursday as traders remained on the sidelines ahead of a key U.S. economic data that may provide clues about the size of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts expected later this year. Investors are watching out for the ISM services data and the initial jobless claims, due later in the day, along with the U.S. non-farm payroll data expected on Friday. Gold tends to thrive in a low interest rate environment and political turmoil. Elsewhere, Perth Mint's gold product sales touched a 10-month high in September, while silver sales hit a seven-month high.
Persons: Brian Lan, , CME's, Lan Organizations: GoldSilver Central, Investors, U.S . Locations: Singapore, Israel, Beirut, Iran, Perth
Traders are watching rising risks to oil supplies as tensions in the Middle East escalate. US oil spiked 5.5% to $73.98 a barrel and Brent prices rose more than 5% to trade at $77.86. If the conflict destroys Iran's oil infrastructure, oil prices could surge 161% to over $200 a barrel, according to SEB's chief commodities analyst Bjarne Schieldrop. AdvertisementInvestors are eagerly awaiting the September jobs report, due Friday, for further signs of labor market health. Markets are pricing in a 65% chance of a smaller 25 basis point cut in November, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Persons: Friday's nonfarm, Biden, , Joe Biden, retaliating, Biden's, Brent, Bjarne Schieldrop, Economists, Jensen Huang, Blackwell Organizations: Traders, Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, Israel, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Costco Locations: Israel, Iran
Oil prices surged after Iran attacked Israel, fueling the sell-off. AdvertisementUS stocks dropped Wednesday as traders continued to monitor escalating tensions in the Middle East. Major indexes slumped in early morning trading while oil prices spiked for a second day, with the international crude benchmark up 2.7% to $75.63 a barrel. Investors sold stocks Tuesday after Iran launched a missile attack on Israel early Tuesday, causing some to flee to risk-off assets. "The stock market impact of geopolitical tensions largely centers around oil prices, and as long as oil prices remain below $100 per barrel and corporate profits remain strong, that is supportive of higher stock prices."
Persons: , Mary Ann Bartels, Bartels Organizations: Service, Lombard, Sanctuary Wealth, Fed Locations: Iran, Israel
US stocks closed higher on Wednesday as traders looked to coming economic data. The September jobs report, a key data point for the next rate move, is due out Friday. AdvertisementUS stocks ended slightly higher on Wednesday as traders anticipated key economic data in the US and looked past simmering tensions in the Middle East. Markets are also taking in positive jobs data, with the private sector adding 143,000 jobs last month, according to ADP. The latter will serve as a key data point when central bankers decide how much further to cut interest rates.
Persons: Traders, , José Torres, Torres, tomorrow's Organizations: Service, Investors, Interactive Brokers, ADP, Here's Locations: Iran, Israel
Great news for Club stocks Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley : The rebound in investment banking isn't over yet. We'll find out to what extent when Wells Fargo reports earnings on Oct. 11 and Morgan Stanley delivers quarterly results on Oct. 16. MS YTD mountain Morgan Stanley (MS) year-to-date performance For Morgan Stanley, a resurgence in its investment banking division is crucial to our investment thesis and why we stuck with it. WFC YTD mountain Wells Fargo (WFC) year-to-date Morgan Stanley's IB business is much larger than Wells Fargo's. Wells Fargo, which has a strong wealth management franchise, is branching out to take a slice of the IB pie.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, We'll, Wells, Jerome Powell, Powell, Rebecca Brokmeier, Brokmeier, Morgan, Jim Cramer, Goldman Sachs, underperformance, Dan Simkowitz, Jim, We've, Charlie Scharf, Jim Cramer's, William McChesney Martin Jr, Anna Moneymaker Organizations: Club, Wells, Federal Reserve, Wall, P Global Market Intelligence, KPMG, Global, Fed, National Association for Business, CNBC, Morgan Stanley's IB, IB, Bloomberg News, Federal, Getty Locations: U.S, Nashville , Tennessee, Wells, Wells Fargo, Washington , DC
India's recent stock market surge has investors viewing the country as an emerging market poised for long-term outperformance. The India NSE Nifty 50 Index , the country's domestic stock market benchmark, has soared 18.7% this year, hitting record levels. "The data show that, historically, the Indian market has offered robust returns with reduced volatility." Going back to 2015, INDA has seen bigger annual gains and smaller declines than the broader emerging market fund. How to play the Indian market Financials are among investors' favorite spots in India's booming stock market.
Persons: It's, Malcolm Dorson, Dorson, GlobalX, Russell, , EEM, INDA, Amr Abdel Khalek, Khalek, Jerome Powell, Venugopal Garre, Krishna Mohanraj, You've, Mohanraj Organizations: India NSE, Global, CNBC, U.S, Federal, Fed, Nasdaq, China, MRB Partners, Traders, Barclays, Diamond Hill Capital Management, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, ICICI, HDFC, Whitehaven Coal, Prestige Estates Locations: India, China, Dorson, U.S, Whitehaven
Powell emphasized the economy's strength and recalibrated interest rate cut expectations. Investors are also eyeing key employment data releases this week for further market direction. All three major indexes moved higher in late trading following Powell's comments about the strength of the US economy. AdvertisementPowell's comments recalibrated interest rate cut expectations in the market. Here's where US indexes stood at the 4 p.m. closing bell on Monday:AdvertisementAside from Fed comments, investors are preparing for a wave of employment data this week.
Persons: Jerome Powell's, Powell, , Jerome Powell Organizations: Service, Dow, Federal, National Association for Business Economics
The bank's stock-strategy chief pointed to the slowing job market and the potential for sticky inflation. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementThe stock market could be headed into an end-of-the-year correction, according to Stifel's Barry Bannister. The slowing job market has already caught the attention of investors, who are watching for signs of continued economic weakness. "It's very hard to justify getting below 3% without a slowdown," Bannister said of interest rates.
Persons: Stifel's Barry Bannister, , " Bannister, Bannister Organizations: Service, CNBC, Conference, Challenger, Investors, Investor
Don't overlook Disney : Shares of Club name Disney have quietly put together a solid September, up about 6% in the month. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Jerome Powell, Powell, we've, Jim Cramer's, Coterra, McCormick, We'll, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Disney, Seaport Research, Seaport, Energy, Coterra Energy, Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: Nashville
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