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☆ The best response to a debt issue is economic growth, says Allianz's Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe best response to a debt issue is economic growth, says Allianz's Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz and Gramercy advisor and president of Queens' College, Cambridge, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest on debt ceiling deal, the Fed's rate hike campaign, and more.

Persons: Allianz's Mohamed El, Erian Mohamed El Organizations: Erian, Allianz, Gramercy, Queens ' College , Cambridge

☆ The Fed could 'crush' the US economy by pursing its inflation target too quickly, Mohamed El-Erian warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Zinya Salfiti | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Mohamed El-Erian warned the Fed could crush the US economy by trying to quickly cut inflation to 2%. While inflation has cooled, it still stood at almost 5% in April. The Federal Reserve could crush the US economy if it fights to bring inflation down quickly to its target of 2%, according to top economist Mohamed El-Erian. He tweeted on Saturday that "getting to 2% quickly would risk unnecessarily crushing the economy" but added the "credibility-damaged Fed" would struggle to adopt an alternative target. He said the Fed "steadfastly pursuing" the target was "inappropriate for a world of deficient aggregate supply."

☆ Mohamed El-Erian says the discord between Fed signals and investors' interest-rate expectations could ignite market turbulence
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Zinya Salfiti | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The persistent discord between the Fed's policy signals and investors' interest-rate expectations is unusual and unsettling, Mohamed El-Erian said. It could lead to a surge in market volatility or end up eroding the central bank's credibility, the top economist said on Twitter. Money-market prices reflect expectations for lower borrowing costs by year-end, but the Fed hasn't signaled any rate cuts. The Fed has been persistent in its war against inflation, and raised interest rates for the 10th time in a row this month. "It is also unsettling as its resolution will involve either a bout of market volatility or further erosion of Fed credibility," he added.

☆ Will The U.S. Economy Pull Off a 'Soft Landing'? - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +22 min

Will The U.S. Economy Pull Off a ‘Soft Landing’? The soft, the hard and the grayThere isn’t any standard definition of an economic soft landing. But what’s an acceptable inflation rate? On the other side, policymakers used to believe that an unemployment rate below 4 percent was basically unattainable without runaway inflation. Unless we have a really, really hard landing, the overall story of the postpandemic economy will be one of remarkable resilience.

☆ Dow surges 400 points as Biden and lawmakers inch closer to a debt ceiling deal
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks jumped Wednesday as lawmakers made progress on debt ceiling negotiations. President Biden and members of Congress are getting closer on a deal after weeks of deadlock. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. "I'm confident we'll get the agreement on the budget, that America will not default on its debt," Biden said on Wednesday morning. While an actual default was widely thought to be unlikely, the possibility of such a scenario has weighed on markets in recent weeks.

☆ Mohamed El-Erian says the debt-cap deadlock threatens Americans' economic well-being and the US's international reputation
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Mohamed El-Erian said the US debt-ceiling deadlock threatens more than Americans' economic well-being. "It also risks undermining further the country's international reputation for sound economic management," he said in a tweet. Lawmakers have been sparring over the debt ceiling for months, despite the risk that the government could run out of money. Top economist Mohamed El-Erian has weighed in on the impasse, which has already prompted several experts to warn of the serious economic and financial risks it poses. El-Erian previously noted that the US debt ceiling is one of four factors that will determine the future of the global economy, along with the Federal Reserve's efforts to reduce high inflation.

☆ Mohamed El-Erian says regional banks are in a 'hospital' phase of turmoil, but a Fed policy mistake will drive them 'back into the ICU'
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The regional banking crisis has shifted out a severe stage, economist Mohamed El-Erian told Bloomberg on Tuesday. But another Fed policy mistake could drive small to mid-sized lenders "back into the ICU." If there's another [Fed] policy mistake, the patient goes back into the ICU," said the chief economic adviser at Allianz. Depositors have yanked hundreds of billions of dollars out of regional lenders collectively this year, including PacWest and First Republic Bank. What would another policy mistake look like to El-Erian?

☆ Mohamed El-Erian says the US is in the second stage of the banking turmoil – and lists 4 ways to avoid a 'significantly damaging' third phase.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Mohamed El-Erian said conditions in the US banking sector have stabilized, but more can be done to prevent further damage. The Allianz economic adviser listed four ways the US can avoid a "damaging" third phase of banking tumult. Indeed, it must if we are to avoid a third phase entailing considerably more financial and economic damage," El-Erian, president of Queen's College, Cambridge University, said. "This second phase can also be contained. "Doing so is necessary if the US is to avoid a third, and significantly more damaging, phase of the banking turmoil," El-Erian said.

☆ Banking turmoil is far from over. Bill Ackman, Jeffrey Gundlach, and Mohamed El-Erian have renewed their warnings about unresolved risks.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-06 | by ( Zinya Salfiti | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Bill Ackman, Jeffrey Gundlach, Mohamed El-Erian and others are warning the banking turmoil is far from over. That's prompting top economists and investors to once again warn that the banking turmoil is far from over. Below is a selection of the most recent warnings on US banking risks from high-profile investors, analysts and other experts. Bill Ackman, billionaire investor"The FDIC's failure to update and expand its insurance regime has hammered more nails in the coffin," Ackman said Wednesday on Twitter. He was raising doubts about Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell's suggestion during a Wednesday press conference that the worst of the banking turmoil is over.

☆ Bitcoin could rally 40% by the end of the year, according to a top blockchain founder
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-06 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

A pile of Bitcoin slugs sit in a box ready to be minted on April 26, 2013 in Sandy, Utah. And bitcoin is front-running this scenario, pointing to a future that is effectively a return to relatively low rates. A big reason why bitcoin has performed so well was that it was just really oversold during the collapse of FTX. In such a scenario, all assets would have a correlation of one with each other, including bitcoin and even gold. Big gold buyers like HSBC and JPMorgan have shunned business with Moscow — leaving billions of dollars worth of gold in need of new landing spots.

☆ Banking 'cancer' may be spreading as otherwise healthy firms seem vulnerable and credit gets pulled from the economy, Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Banking sector "cancer" is starting to spread, Mohamed El-Erian said. Other regional lenders have shown signs of weakness after First Republic Bank failed this week. Widespread contagion would turn the banking situation into a true crisis, El-Erian warned. "The cancer within them is starting to spread, and we've got to keep an eye on that," he added. Credit conditions are also beginning to tighten, and the risks of further contraction go up as banking contagion spreads.

☆ Mohamed El-Erian slams Powell's suggestion that the bank turmoil is over – says it could be added to a list of Fed communications that eroded its credibility.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Zinya Salfiti | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Mohamed El-Erian raised doubts about Fed chair Jerome Powell's suggestion that the worst of the banking turmoil is over. PacWest is the latest bank to be hit by uncertainty, with its shares tumbling more than 50% in after-hours trading Wednesday. El-Erian said Powell's remarks may get added to a list of Fed communications that ended up eroding its credibility. It is the latest regional bank to be hit by the turmoil that started with Silicon Valley Bank's collapse in March. It's important the Fed notes that this doesn't mean the banking system as a whole is facing an existential crisis, he added.

☆ Mohamed El-Erian: 4 Unintended Consequences of the First Republic Deal
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Zinya Salfiti | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Mohamed El-Erian said JPMorgan's takeover of First Republic could lead to "potential collateral damage". It's another case of US government institutions settling for a "second best" solution, he wrote in a Bloomberg op-ed. El-Erian warned of four unintended consequences from the deal including "a more concentrated banking system" and the risk of deeper credit crunch. Yet the potential collateral damage and the unintended consequences are far from immaterial," El-Erian wrote in an op-ed for Bloomberg on Monday. The chief economic adviser at Allianz warned of four notable unintended consequences for the US financial system, that could emerge from the final outcome of the First Republic narrative.

☆ Are we in a recession? Elon Musk says the pile of failed banks proves it.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

As for today, let's see what Elon Musk and Larry Summers have to say about the state of the economy. In any case, ex-Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said recession odds for the next year are now sitting at 70%. These six factors suggest the stock market bottomed last October. Morgan Stanley's top equity strategist Mike Wilson thinks investors are banking too hard on a potential Fed rate cut this year. That discrepancy could set the stock market up for a sell-off, in his view.

☆ First Republic takeover is 'undoubtedly, unambiguously' beneficial to JPMorgan: Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFirst Republic takeover is 'undoubtedly, unambiguously' beneficial to JPMorgan: Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz and Gramercy advisor and president of Queens' College, Cambridge, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the fallout from JPMorgan's takeover of First Republic, what this means for the Fed's rate hike path, and more.

☆ Here are the 4 issues that will determine the future of the global economy, according to Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Mohamed El-Erian says there are four issues that will shape the future of the global economy. El-Erian say the Fed's efforts to reduce inflation and the US debt ceiling are key factors looking ahead. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. download the app Email address By clicking ‘Sign up’, you agree to receive marketing emails from Insider as well as other partner offers and accept our Terms of Service and Privacy PolicyIt is an uncertain time for the global economy. As narratives continue to shift, Wall Street's views range from predictions of a full on stock market crash to a soft landing of the economy.

☆ Here are 3 things Mohamed El-Erian is watching out for in earnings this week
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

In a market plagued by uncertainty, Mohamed El-Erian is turning to this week's earnings — from key technology names such as Microsoft and Alphabet , to industrial heavyweights General Electric and General Motors — for further clarity. "Given what we know, and especially what we don't know, I wouldn't bet against these markets. I wouldn't bet in favor of these markets," El-Erian, Allianz and Gramercy advisor and president of Queens' College, Cambridge University, said Monday on CNBC's "Squawk Box." When all is said and done, first-quarter earnings for companies in the entire index are estimated to decline 5.2%, however, per Refinitiv. Also due this week: U.S. first-quarter GDP, March's personal consumption expenditures price index (the Fed's favorite inflation gauge) and April's consumer sentiment data.

☆ The bond market recognizes that there is a lot of uncertainty: Allianz's Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe bond market recognizes that there is a lot of uncertainty: Allianz's Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz and Gramercy advisor and president of Queens' College, Cambridge, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the upcoming earnings results this week and more.

☆ 'The equity market is poised to struggle in the weeks and months ahead': Comerica Bank's CIO says the S&P 500 is primed for a 15% drop as weak earnings, high valuations, and a hawkish Fed all work aga
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-22 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 8%. Plus, when the Consumer Price Index is between 4-6% like it is now, it usually dictates that the S&P 500 trades at a lower multiple than it is. "For example, at the current S&P 500 P/E of 19, the earnings yield for stocks is 1 divided by 19, or ~5.2%. While he sees 15% downside in the months ahead, he also believes the S&P 500 will return to current levels by the end of 2023. Morgan StanleyWilson has also repeatedly warned of an earnings recession ahead, and recently said that the pullback in lending from banks strengthens his case.

☆ Russia is landing new buyers for its sanctioned diesel all over the world and Brazil's taking advantage of the steep discounts.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-22 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Today we're talking energy — and I'm sharing a conversation with a leading expert on Russian diesel flows. Phil Rosen: You shared some data on how Brazil is seeing a dramatic uptick in Russian diesel imports, and a decrease in diesel imports from other sources, including the US. It really does appear that Russian diesel is muscling in on US market share in Brazil. How does this data on Brazil's diesel imports fit into the broader picture with China and India? Russian diesel is displacing traditional suppliers to these countries, while trade flows are changing to backfill the loss of Russian diesel into Europe.

☆ US stocks rise but close lower for the week as investors mull mixed bag of corporate earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stock indices rose Friday as investors digested mixed earnings reports. However, all three major gauges closed the week in the red. Alphabet and Amazon are on deck to report quarterly results next week. According to FactSet, more than 75% of S&P 500 companies that have reported so far have exceeded analysts' earnings expectations. Mega-cap tech like Alphabet and Amazon are on deck for next week's quarterly results.

☆ The US economy is facing the ultimate 'trilemma' as the Fed desperately tries to get inflation down, Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Policymakers are navigating a "trilemma [of] price stability, maximum jobs, and also financial stability," he told Bloomberg TV. Meanwhile, a credit contraction in the bank sector is equivalent to 25-50 basis points of tightening. "This just makes the Feds' ability to navigate this trilemma [of] price stability, maximum jobs, and also financial stability that much harder," he told Bloomberg Television Thursday. The credit contraction will have a similar effect on the economy that Fed rate hikes do, equivalent to about 25 to 50 basis points, El-Erian estimated. The central bank has been on a monetary tightening campaign for over a year, raising borrowing costs by 475 basis points to combat decades-high inflation.

☆ Inflation will be sticky around 4-5%: Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation will be sticky around 4-5%: Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz and Gramercy advisor and president of Queens' College, Cambridge, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the higher yields, how sticky inflation will be, and more.

☆ There's no reason for the US to fall into recession unless the Fed messes up, Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Mohamed El-Erian said the US economy can avoid a recession unless the Fed makes another policy error. "There's no reason why we should fall into a recession other than getting another Fed policy mistake," he said. REUTERS/Jason ReedMohamed El-Erian says there's no reason for the US to tip into recession unless the Federal Reserve miscalculates what it needs to do again. "There's no reason why we should fall into a recession other than getting another Fed policy mistake," he said. Those tighter credit conditions — a credit crunch — could end up dragging on economic growth alongside Fed rate hikes.

☆ I think we can avoid a recession, says Allianz advisor Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailI think we can avoid a recession, says Allianz advisor Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz advisor and president of Queens’ College, Cambridge, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss the markets, the Fed, and why the U.S. economy can avoid a recession.

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