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As a result, he is staying away from assets that could be hit hard if market stress suddenly increases, such as small cap stocks. The S&P 500 edged up 0.1% on Wednesday after shuffling between gains and losses. The S&P 500 is up 15% this year, while the Nasdaq (.IXIC) has gained 30%. Mark Heppenstall, chief investment officer of Penn Mutual Asset Management, believes a burgeoning stock market rally could loosen credit conditions, threatening to exacerbate consumer prices - an undesirable outcome for the inflation-fighting Fed. The S&P 500 is up 14% from a low reached after the banking crisis in March.

Persons: ”, Josh Emanuel, Emanuel, James St . Aubin, Jeffrey Gundlach, Mark Heppenstall, Josh Jamner, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Sam Holmes Organizations: YORK, Federal, Wilshire, Nasdaq, Sierra Investment Management, DoubleLine Capital, CNBC, Fed, Penn Mutual Asset Management, ClearBridge Investments, Thomson Locations: U.S

Odey Asset Management "does not recognise the picture of the firm that has been painted" by the allegations, it told investors in a letter seen by Reuters. Within hours of the report being published, Wall Street firms including Goldman Sachs (GS.N), JPMorgan (JPM.N) and Morgan Stanley (MS.N) began reviewing their prime broking ties with Odey Asset Management, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. "We are confident our service providers will continue to work with us," an Odey Asset Management letter said later. Industry experts consulted by Reuters said that did not necessarily indicate a major change in culture in the City, however. A London employment tribunal last month awarded a former Algebris employee over 32,000 pounds in a sex harassment claim against the asset management company.

Persons: Crispin Odey, Odey, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, MS.N, Schroders, Evan Nierman, Megan Tobias Neely, Neely, retrained, Daniel Beunza, Davide Serra, Serra, Algebris, Yasmine Chinwala, Nell Mackenzie, Sinead Cruise, Naomi Rovnick, Dhara Ranasinghe, Rosalba O'Brien Organizations: Odey Asset Management, Financial Times, Tortoise Media, Reuters, Odey, Wall, JPMorgan, FT, Financial, Bayes Business, Labour Party, New, Thomson Locations: City, London, Britain, New York

☆ The moon's pull is so strong it may trigger earthquakes on Earth. Scientists are still baffled by its power.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-10 | by ( Marianne Guenot | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

A small handful of experts claim to have evidence that our satellite produces forces that can trigger earthquakes. The moon's effect on earthquakes was hiddenScientists have long pondered whether the moon's tides could be linked to earthquakes. And it seems that in some cases, the moon did help trigger earthquakes around the world. By digging into these datasets, a few studies have suggested a link between Earth tides and earthquakes. Rather, it is when the rock is on the very brink of collapse that the moon's small tug could push it past that final tipping point.

Persons: —, Vi Nguyen, Chris Scholtz, Scholtz, Juan, Scholz, C.H, Tan, Nat Commun, Davide Zaccagnino, Zaccagnino Organizations: Service, NASA, Columbia Climate School, Pictures, NOAA, US, Nature Communications, Sapienza University of Rome Locations: Fuca, Earthquakes

NEW YORK, June 7 (Reuters) - U.S. investor Stanley Druckenmiller, chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Duquesne Family Office, said on Wednesday that he still expects a hard landing for the U.S. economy, as inflation persists, but offered a positive outlook for Nvidia. Still, the investor is bullish on artificial intelligence, mainly on chipmaker Nvidia Corp (NVDA.O). "Unlike crypto I think AI is real," he said. "If it's as big as I think it is, Nvidia is something we're going to want to own for at least two or three years. Reporting by Carolina Mandl and Davide Barbuscia in New YorkOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Stanley Druckenmiller, Carolina Mandl, Davide Barbuscia Organizations: YORK, Duquesne Family Office, Nvidia, Bloomberg, Nvidia Corp, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York

☆ Markets brace for deluge of Treasury bill supply after US debt deal
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Treasury General Account has fallen sharply since January when Treasury hit its limit on borrowing. Cash balance targets indicate it will need to rebuild its account quickly now that the borrowing cap has been lifted. "Money market funds are extremely short ... so the trillion-dollar Treasury bills (issuance) would be welcome with open arms," said money market fund expert Peter Crane, president of Crane Data. Part of that could be due to the fact that money funds, heavily exposed to short-term debt this year, have started to extend the their maturities recently. "The Federal Reserve RRP has been holding trillions of the money fund assets and so that money can easily be redeployed into Treasury bills.

Persons: Steven Zeng, Zeng, Glenmede, Peter Crane, RRP, Bank's Zeng, Davide Barbuscia, Karen Brettel, Alden Bentley, Matthew Lewis Organizations: YORK, Treasury, Deutsche Bank, Treasuries, Crane, Federal, Thomson Locations: New York

"The risk of a downgrade is exacerbated every time Congress flirts with the debt ceiling," said Calvin Norris, Portfolio Manager & US Rates Strategist at Aegon Asset Management, who sees another downgrade as still a risk. Economic damage from the 2011 and 2013 debt ceiling battles had a chilling impact. Rating agency Fitch and other smaller agencies recently placed the U.S. credit rating under review. Reuters GraphicsCASCADE EFFECTInvestors use credit ratings as one of the metrics to assess the risk profiles of governments and companies. In the 2013 debt ceiling crisis the legislative standoff did not cause a rating downgrade, although Fitch placed its rating under review.

Persons: Kevin McCarthy, Joe Biden, Leah Millis, Calvin Norris, Wendy Edelberg, Edelberg, Fitch, William Foster, ”, Andy Sparks, Olivier d'Assier, Peter Crane, MSCI's Sparks, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Nick Zieminski Organizations: U.S, White, REUTERS, Senate, Republicans, Aegon Asset Management, AAA, Government, Office, The, Brookings Institution, Moody's, Moody’s Investors Service, Applied Research, Crane, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, United States, Washington, APAC, Qontigo

Reflecting investor optimism about passage, the cost of insuring exposure to a U.S. debt default dropped on Tuesday, but some concerns remained because of the tight timeline and opposition from some lawmakers. Last week, credit rating agency Fitch placed its "AAA" rating of U.S. sovereign debt on watch for a possible downgrade, citing downside risks including political brinkmanship and a growing debt burden. In a previous debt ceiling crisis in 2011 rating agency Standard & Poor's cut the U.S. top 'AAA' rating by one notch a few days after a debt ceiling deal, citing political polarization and insufficient steps to right the nation's fiscal outlook. "Even if a U.S. default is averted, a ratings downgrade could still happen," Vishwanath Tirupattur, a strategist at Morgan Stanley, said in a research note on Sunday. Some also fear a debt ceiling resolution could only provide short-term relief to markets because the U.S. Treasury is expected to quickly refill its account with bond sales, sucking out hundreds of billions of dollars of cash from the market.

Persons: Joe Biden, Kevin McCarthy, Fitch, Raymond James, Ed Mills, Alex Anderson, Vishwanath Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley, Spokespeople, Blair Shwedo, Davide Barbuscia, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Pete Schroeder, Megan Davies, David Gregorio Our Organizations: YORK, Democratic, Republican, U.S . Treasury Department, BMO Capital Markets, AAA, Moody's, U.S . Treasury, Thomson Locations: U.S

May 28 (Reuters) - Good news of a tentative deal for the U.S. debt ceiling impasse may quickly turn out to be bad news for financial markets. "That's where the debt ceiling matters." In that case, "the impact on broader financial markets would likely be relatively muted," Daniel Krieter, director of fixed income strategy, BMO Capital Markets, said in a report. Some bankers said they fear financial markets may not have accounted for the risk of a liquidity drain from banks' reserves. Bankers put it to hope that the debt ceiling impasse would be resolved without significant dislocation to markets, but warn that's a risky strategy.

☆ Earth's neighboring star Betelgeuse unexpectedly got 50% brighter —part of a weird process that will end in the dying star going supernova
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Marianne Guenot | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

This dying red giant had only recently mysteriously dimmed its shine after an enormous explosion. It is expected to explode into a supernova visible from Earth, though likely not for thousands of years. The red giant — a star not far from death — is now shining about 50% brighter than it usually would, scientists said. Scientists are keeping a close eye on Betelgeuse, as this red giant is a dying star that is close to turning supernova. Betelgeuse could burst into a supernova visible from Earth — one dayA pre-supernova star, called a Wolf-Rayet star, 15,000 light-years away in the constellation Sagittarius.

☆ Analysis: US debt ceiling deal could stall safety flight fueling megacap rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Their rally has been responsible for all of the 8.3% year-to-date gain in the S&P 500 (.SPX) through Wednesday's close, a Deutsche Bank report showed. A recent survey of global fund managers from BofA Global Research showed that 71% believe a deal to raise the debt ceiling will be reached before the X-date. Excitement over artificial intelligence, which has boosted some megacap names this year, is another factor that could support the category. At the same time, the debt ceiling has been only one of of several worries weighing on the market. Paul Christopher, head of global market strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, expects lawmakers will reach an agreement to extend the debt ceiling through September.

☆ US government CDS spreads decline as debt ceiling negotiations progress
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW YORK, May 16 (Reuters) - A measure of the cost to insure exposure to U.S. government debt declined on Tuesday as Democratic President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy edged closer to a deal to avoid a debt default. Spreads on U.S. one-year credit default swaps, market-based gauges of the risk of a default, declined to 155 basis points from 164 basis points on Monday, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. Spreads on five-year CDS decreased to 69 basis points from 72 bps on Monday. Investor jitters around a possible U.S. default have intensified in recent weeks as the deadline to raise the government's borrowing cap looms closer than what many in the market had anticipated. Reporting by Davide Barbuscia; Editing by Leslie AdlerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

NEW YORK/WASHINGTON, May 15 (Reuters) - As talks over raising the U.S. government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling intensify, Wall Street banks and asset managers have begun preparing for fallout from a potential default. Citigroup (C.N) CEO Jane Fraser said this debate on the debt ceiling is "more worrying" than previous ones. U.S. government bonds underpin the global financial system so it is difficult to fully gauge the damage a default would create, but executives expect massive volatility across equity, debt and other markets. Banks, brokers and trading platforms are prepping for disruption to the Treasury market, as well as broader volatility. Bond trading platform Tradeweb said it was in discussions with clients, industry groups, and other market participants about contingency plans.

Spreads on U.S. one-year credit default swaps (CDS) - market-based gauges of the risk of a default - widened to 172 basis points, an all-time high, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data, up from a close of 163 on Tuesday. The cost of insuring U.S. debt against default for five years stood at 73 basis points, up from 72 basis points on Tuesday, touching the highest level since 2009. Due to the mechanics of a potential CDS payout, the probability of a default implied by the CDS could be lower than what current levels suggest, analysts said. As of last week, the spread on one-year CDS implied a 3.9% probability that the U.S. would default, according to MSCI Research analysts. "We found a lower market-implied default probability than in 2011 ... despite much wider CDS spreads today," they said.

☆ Groves wins chaotic Giro stage five after dog causes Evenepoel crash
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

May 10 (Reuters) - Favourite Remco Evenepoel crashed twice on stage five of the Giro d'Italia on Wednesday, the first time after a dog strayed on to the road in treacherous conditions caused by driving rain, before Kaden Groves won the stage in a bunch sprint. The second crash did not affect Evenepoel's time as it happened inside the three-km mark, effectively neutralising the general classification times. But the crash left the Belgian world champion fuming while the rest of the bunch surged ahead and Alpecin–Deceuninck's Groves dominated the sprint to win the stage. The breakaway trio of Thomas Champion, Samuele Zoccarato and Stefano Gandin had built up a head of steam before they were absorbed by the peloton with seven km to go. Just super bad luck, with the second crash," he said.

☆ US debt ceiling: How to trade off it
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

BlackRock says (BLK.N) it's been buying Treasuries in anticipation of an economic slowdown and a protracted debt ceiling fight. 2/ RAINY DAY DEFAULT PROTECTIONCredit default swaps (CDS), which work like insurance against a debt default, are seeing strong demand. "If debt ceiling concerns grow we think markets will price in more Fed rate cut expectations, which means 5-year yields would fall," said Miyairi. 5/ ALL THAT GLITTERSDeutsche Bank strategist Robin Winkler says a good hedge may be buying gold against the dollar, as it has the tightest relationship with newsflow around the debt ceiling. In August 2011, as a debt ceiling crisis prompted a U.S. credit rating downgrade, gold rose 11% that month alone.

Catalonia, Spain CNN —Standing in his field of stunted, withered maize, Santi Caudevilla is very worried. It’s becoming increasingly hard to make ends meet as crops shrivel through lack of water – or cannot be planted at all. “This is the worst period that we have had for the last 100 years,” Samuel Reyes, director of the Catalan Water Agency, told CNN. Allison Nussbaum/NASA Allison Nussbaum/NASA These two images show shrinking water reservoirs in the Catalonia region of Spain. In April, Spain requested emergency funding from the European Union to help farmers cope with the impacts of the drought.

☆ Roma and Milan share spoils with late goals in top-four battle
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Milan remain fourth in the standings, level on 57 points with Roma in fifth, with both sides two points behind third-placed Juventus who travel to Bologna on Sunday. Roma's back luck, however, did not end there and Mourinho was forced to make an early change when defender Marash Kumbulla clashed inside the box with Milan forward Olivier Giroud. They had a decent chance just after the half-hour mark but forward Leao fired wide. Milan defenders Davide Calabria and Fikayo Tomori had two more chances before halftime but both missed the target. Milan host second-bottom Cremonese on Wednesday when Roma travel to ninth-placed Monza.

Things are calmer now, but seven traders who spoke to Reuters, some heading rates desks at big global banks, said March's mayhem continues to reverberate, with fears of further volatility in traditionally stable bond markets muting activity. Investors rely on government bond markets to translate central bank interest rates into a stable benchmark for borrowing costs, from corporate loans to household mortgages. Yield shifts in government bond markets have become bigger - occasionally hitting 20 bps a day - since central banks started ramping up rate hikes last year to tame surging inflation. For some, March's turmoil is the latest sign of how post-2008 regulations constraining dealer balance sheets are affecting bond market functioning. Others noted markets were leaving behind an era of low volatility for good as rates rise.

☆ Napoli on verge of first Serie A title in 33 years
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Tommy Lund | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Summary Napoli on brink of winning titleInter under pressureRoma battling injury issuesApril 27 (Reuters) - Runaway Serie A leaders Napoli could seal their third Scudetto in record fashion this weekend if they beat lowly visitors Salernitana and second-placed Lazio drop points at Inter Milan. Spalletti urged his Napoli players not to get ahead of themselves despite being tantalisingly close to ending the city's 33-year wait for the Serie A title since Diego Maradona led the team to two championships in 1987 and 1990. Salernitana have improved dramatically since Paulo Sousa took over from Davide Nicola in mid-February and have pulled well clear of the relegation scrap. Gian Piero Gasperini's seventh-placed Atalanta, who have 52 points, travel to Torino on Saturday while Juve, with 59 points, visit another mid-table side in Bologna on Sunday. Reporting by Tommy Lund in Gdansk; Editing by Ken FerrisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Paradoxically, however, in previous debt ceiling crises investors have sought protection from the economic risks of a default by piling into U.S. long-term Treasuries. "If you go through a debt ceiling crisis, it's a global crisis ... And the flight to quality ends up being in U.S. Treasuries," Rieder told Reuters in an interview. "The debt ceiling is certainly part of it," he said, adding other recent steps were an overall reduction of risk in the portfolio, including in credit. The U.S. House of Representatives will vote on a Republican bill to raise the U.S. government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling and slash spending on Wednesday. "It's so hard to foresee how far down the road this debt ceiling is going to take us," Rieder said.

CHICAGO, April 26 (Reuters) - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said the odds that the U.S. government could face a technical debt default due to legislation around its borrowing limit were at around 2%-3%, but that any default would be fixed quickly. A standoff between Republicans and Democrats over raising the U.S. borrowing limit has started to impact money markets, with incoming tax receipts recently indicating that the deadline to raise the $31.4 trillion borrowing limit could be sooner than expected. "I think the odds on a technical default associated with the debt limit legislation over the next few months are 2% or 3%, and if it happens it will be repaired fairly quickly," Summers said at a Morningstar investment conference in Chicago. On the other hand, the White House has called on Congress to raise the debt limit without conditions, as it did three times under Biden's Republican predecessor, Donald Trump. JPMorgan warned last week that there was a "non-trivial" risk of a technical default on U.S. Treasuries, and that the debate over the debt ceiling would likely run "dangerously close" to its final deadline.

CHICAGO, April 26 (Reuters) - A U.S. default is highly unlikely, but negotiations around the debt ceiling are expected to be protracted, Daniel Ivascyn, chief investment officer at U.S. bond giant Pacific Investment Management Co (PIMCO), said on Wednesday. Speaking at a Morningstar investment conference in Chicago, Ivascyn said prolonged uncertainty around the U.S. debt ceiling could be a headwind for the economy, tightening credit conditions and accelerating the current economic slowdown. On Wednesday, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said the odds that the U.S. government could face a technical debt default were at around 2% to 3%, but that any default would be fixed quickly. "You're introducing a debt ceiling standoff at a time where there's just lots of other uncertainty," Ivascyn said, adding this could translate into a further reduction in risk-taking from households and corporates, which could exacerbate economic weakness. Ivascyn said he was seeking to maintain high liquidity to withstand potentially more volatility in financial markets caused by the borrowing limit standoff.

A Reuters review of testimony, previously unreported public documents and interviews with elected leaders, lobbyists and attorneys detail mounting challenges to many pending anti-ESG bills. The tussles have financial implications for some of the largest investment firms that manage billions of dollars for state pension plans. Lauren Doroghazi, senior vice president at government relations consultant MultiState Associates, said the debates show lawmakers coming to terms with the anti-ESG bills' practical impact. Several public pension systems raised concerns about it, including the largest, the $182 billion Texas Teacher Retirement System (TRS). For instance, if federally-regulated local banks faced new national rules on an issue like climate change disclosures, banks would need special permissions from local officials to keep public business in Utah he said.

NEW YORK, April 21 (Reuters) - Vanguard, the world's second-largest asset manager, increased exposure to large bank's bonds during the banking rout in March, taking advantage of cheap valuations, according to a report seen by Reuters. "The banking troubles offered a brief window to add large banks at compelling valuations," said the report, written by Sara Devereux, global head of fixed income group, and her team. "We had little exposure to troubled banks and do not see evidence of a systemic risk to the financial system," it said. Core inflation, however, is likely to be sticky, according to Vanguard, limiting the Fed's ability to ease monetary policy in coming quarters. "Barring a major economic surprise, we think the Fed will hold policy rates high for longer than the market currently expects."

REUTERS/Brendan McDermidNEW YORK, April 20 (Reuters) - A debt ceiling fight is looming in the U.S. yet again, giving investors another worry for markets this year. Here is a Q&A about the implications for markets:WHAT IS THE DEBT CEILING? The debt ceiling is the maximum amount the U.S. government can borrow to meet its financial obligations. Outstanding government debt, nominal gross domestic product and federal limit to borrowWHEN WILL THE U.S. HIT THE DEBT CEILING? Some Treasury bills (T-bills) are featuring a premium in their yields that may be tied to an elevated default risk, according to some analysts.

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