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Treasury yield fall as Fed meeting kicks off
  + stars: | 2024-06-11 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
U.S. Treasury yields fell Tuesday as the Federal Reserve meeting is set to begin, with investors awaiting the central bank's monetary policy decision and key economic data. The June Federal Reserve meeting is set to begin Tuesday, before concluding with the central bank's latest interest rate decision and policy guidance on Wednesday. The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged this month, with the first rate cut being priced in for later this year. Many investors will be hoping for the data to show that the economy is cooling, as this could suggest the Fed will cut interest rates sooner. Investors will therefore also be closely following economic projections released by the Fed on Wednesday alongside its interest rate decision.
Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, Fed, Investors Locations: U.S
Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Financials, Morgan Stanley, Wells, , Jim, Eli Lilly, Biogen, Jim Cramer's, LLY, DOV Organizations: CNBC, Federal, GE Healthcare, FDA, GE, JPMorgan, Dover Locations: That's, Dover
Platform Eureka, an offshore oil and gas platform operated by Beta Operating Company LLC, off the coast of Long Beach, California, US, on Thursday, Nov. 2, 2023. Crude oil futures rose slightly on Monday as analysts see summer fuel demand pushing the market into a supply deficit in the coming weeks. Goldman Sachs analysts said Brent should rise to $86 in the third quarter as summer transportation and cooling demand pushes the market into a "sizeable" deficit of 1.3 million barrels per day. Here are today's energy prices:Oil prices posted a loss last week after OPEC+ agreed to increase production starting in October through September 2025. OPEC+ can delay, pause or reverse its decision to raise production if needed to stabilize the oil market, Goldman analyst Daan Struyven told clients in a Sunday note.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Brent, Daan Struyven Organizations: Beta Operating, Goldman Locations: Eureka, Long Beach , California, OPEC
While the market is seeing more listings, the boost in supply is not enough to attract buyers, according to Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. "Mortgage rates are down a bit from May highs, but that hasn't spurred a surge of competition among buyers in the housing market," Divounguy said. Many experts believe the Federal Reserve will likely hold interest rates in the upcoming board meeting on June 12. However, the National Association of Realtors forecast a potential interest rate cut by the fall of this year, according to Jessica Lautz, the NAR's deputy chief economist. 'It's hard to foresee prices really cooling'While the housing market has slowed in terms of the number of transactions, prices haven't soften despite broader expectations, Ostrowski explained.
Persons: Orphe Divounguy, Realtor.com, Kelman, Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae, Duncan, Freddie Mac, hasn't, Divounguy, Jessica Lautz, Ostrowski Organizations: Realtor.com, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Reserve, National Association of Realtors Locations: U.S
Business Insider asked three fashion designers which accessories are in and out for summer. Large sunglasses, big hair accessories, and lightweight scarves will be huge trends. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementInflation finally seems to be steadily cooling down, so now is the perfect time to restock your wardrobe for the summer. Luckily, Business Insider spoke with three fashion designers to find out which accessory trends are in and out for the season — so you don't have to waste your hard-earned cash on out-of-style pieces.
Persons: Organizations: Service, Business
The 2-year Treasury yield was last more than two basis points higher to 4.8909%. U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Monday as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting and key inflation data due this week. Due this week are the latest Federal Reserve interest rate decision and policy guidance, as well as fresh key economic data, including inflation data. The Fed is due to meet Tuesday and Wednesday, and is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting. Policymakers have repeatedly said that they are looking for more data evidence to be sure that inflation is easing sustainably toward the 2% target before making interest rate cuts.
Persons: downwardly Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal
Fitch Ratings revised its office delinquency forecast for 2024 and 2025. Maturing office loan refinanceability will reach no more than 16%-21%. AdvertisementThings are not looking up for the US office sector, with loan performance set to slump even further in 2025, Fitch Ratings said. Driving the fallout are still-elevated interest rates, cooling economic growth, and a stricter lending environment, Fitch wrote on Friday. Fitch anticipates low refinanceability on maturing office loans through this year, with 16%-21% able to refinance.
Persons: Fitch, Organizations: Service, Fitch, National Association of Realtors
A recession indicator with a flawless record has been flashing red for 20 months. The economist behind the inverted yield curve says it's too soon to declare it's wrong this time. AdvertisementA recession indicator with a perfect track record has been flashing red for 20 months now, but the economist who pioneered its use warned against dismissing it just yet. "I think it's way too early to declare a failure," Campbell Harvey told Fox Business about the inverted yield curve. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.
Persons: Campbell Harvey, , Harvey Organizations: Service, Fox Business, Duke University, Business
The next rate decision from the Federal Reserve coupled with May inflation data, both on Wednesday, will play key roles in how stocks perform next week — quite probably lending added volatility to an already jittery market. The Fed's rate decision All eyes are on the Fed next week and its rate decision that's set to come down at 2 p.m. Wednesday. But investors have tempered expectations since then amid a spate of stubborn inflation data. That makes May's consumer price index report due out before the bell Wednesday another key focal point for investors. Economists polled by Dow Jones are bracing for the consumer price index to rise 3.4% year over year and 0.1% on a monthly basis.
Persons: nonfarm, Kathryn Kaminski, Scott Wren, they've, it's, Tony Roth, Envestnet's Dana D'Auria, D'Auria, Dow Jones, Wells, Wren, John Belton, Apple, Jerome Powell, John Wiley Friday Organizations: Federal, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, GameStop, Dow, AlphaSimplex Group, Fed, Federal Open Market, European Central Bank, European Union, Wells Fargo Investment, Wilmington Trust's, CPI, Apple's Worldwide, Broadcom, Dave, Treasury, Signet Jewelers, University of Michigan Locations: Wells Fargo, Cupertino , California
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCampbell reported solid results, but management gave not-so-hot guidance, says Jim Cramer'Mad Money' host Jim Cramer looks at the recent performance of packaged food stocks and gauges how well the stocks will perform in a cooling economy.
Persons: Campbell, Jim Cramer
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJim Cramer gauges how packaged food stocks will stack up in a cooling economy'Mad Money' host Jim Cramer looks at the recent performance of packaged food stocks and gauges how well the stocks will perform in a cooling economy.
Persons: Jim Cramer
CNN —At a time when Americans and the Federal Reserve are clamoring for clear-cut data about the state of the economy, Friday’s jobs report was much more opaque than everyone had hoped. Unemployment roseThe unemployment rate rose to 4% from 3.9%. The rise in unemployment can be traced to the findings of the household survey (one of two surveys that feed into the monthly jobs report). Compared to the establishment survey that showed the robust 272,000 net gain in jobs, the household survey faltered. That’s in the service sector, everything from personal care services, dry cleaning, cleaning and home maintenance and vehicle maintenance, she said.
Persons: Dean Baker, ” Diane Swonk, Gus Faucher, “ Jobs, , ” Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter, ” Pollak, ” Swonk, That’s, ” Andrew Challenger, hirings, Wells, Sarah House, Mike Pugliese, it’s Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve, KPMG, PNC, “ Employers, Challenger
US economy added a whopping 272,000 jobs in May
  + stars: | 2024-06-07 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
At a time when Americans and the Federal Reserve are clamoring for clear-cut data about the state and trajectory of the economy, Friday’s jobs report was much more opaque than everyone had hoped. Employment fell in the household survey, while unemployment increased to just shy of 6.5 million and pushing the unemployment rate to the threshold of 4%. Service-providing industries accounted for the bulk of the month’s job gains, with health care and social assistance continuing to lead the way, with 83,500 jobs added. “Don’t get overly spooked by the rise in the unemployment rate,” Bunker wrote. “The labor market is still gliding toward a soft landing.”
Persons: ” Dean Baker, , I’ve, Diane Swonk, , Wall, Chris Rupkey, FwdBonds, CEPR’s Baker, ” Baker, ” Thomas Simons, Jeffries, Nick Bunker, Bunker, “ Don’t, ” Bunker Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve, Center for Economic, Policy Research, of Labor Statistics, KPMG, That’s, Index, Traders, BLS, Service, North America
Five Below told investors to expect between $830 million and $850 million, while analysts polled by LSEG forecasted $883 million. Sprinklr — The business technology stock dove 21.1% in the wake of weak guidance for the current quarter and full year. StoneCo — The financial technology stock rose 2.6% following an upgrade to overweight from neutral by JPMorgan . Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical — The biopharma stock added nearly 4% following an upgrade to buy from neutral at Goldman Sachs. Shopify — The e-commerce technology stock slipped 1.6% on the back of a MoffettNathanson downgrade to neutral from buy.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Smartsheet, LSEG, Sprinklr, Mizuho, there's, StoneCo, CH Robinson, Goldman, ISI's, Shopify, Guggenheim, , Jesse Pound, Michelle Fox, Lisa Kailai Han Organizations: Nvidia, LSEG, Revenue, Mizuho, JPMorgan, Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, Goldman, eBay, Citi, UBS, BMO Capital, BMO, Viridian Therapeutics, ISI, Energy Locations: Americas
Gold gains as U.S. dollar, yields slip; focus on jobs data
  + stars: | 2024-06-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Gold firmed on Thursday as the dollar and Treasury yields retreated on rising bets that U.S interest rate cuts may start as early as September, while investors awaited the U.S. non-farm payrolls data. Gold firmed on Thursday as the dollar and Treasury yields retreated on rising bets that U.S interest rate cuts may start as early as September, while investors awaited the U.S. non-farm payrolls data. Spot gold was up 0.8% at $2,373.31 per ounce as of 0258 GMT, after rising 1% in the previous session. The dollar index was down 0.2%, hovering around a near two-month low, and benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields lingered near their weakest levels in more than two months. "The fundamental outlook still looks constructive for gold as we move closer towards possible Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year.
Persons: Tim Waterer Organizations: Treasury, ., U.S ., KCM, U.S, Federal
The share of US homes seeing price declines has hit its highest level since 2022, Redfin said. It could be a sign that national price growth will soon start softening. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementMore than 6% of US homes are seeing price declines, the biggest share since November 2022, according to a new Redfin report.
Persons: Redfin, , That's Organizations: Service, metros, Business Locations: Texas, Oregon, Austin, San Antonio, Fort Worth, Portland , Oregon
Read previewThe Federal Reserve's aggressive inflation fight hasn't worked to cool off the job market, and the central bank risks sparking a "serious" downturn for US consumers, according to real estate billionaire investor Barry Sternlicht. Sternlicht said high interest rates haven't loosened the job market even in the most rate-sensitive areas like construction. Related storiesJobs in the healthcare industry have climbed 1.4 million since March 2022, the month the Fed first began raising interest rates. The Fed keeping interest rates higher for longer risks further weakening the job market. Other Wall Street forecasters have been warning of the risk of recession, especially as interest rates look poised to stay higher for longer.
Persons: , hasn't, Barry Sternlicht, Sternlicht, Jerome Powell, He's Organizations: Service, Starwood Capital, Business, Fed, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNBC, Challenger, New
For the current quarter, Five Below said it expects between $830 million and $850 million in revenue, while analysts polled by LSEG expected $883 million. The move was made earlier this week and comes just days after the company reported its first revenue miss since 2006. Lululemon issued weak guidance for the current quarter, but its full-year earnings per share guidance was above expectations. The company recorded earnings of $2.66 per share, which is better than the LSEG consensus estimate of $2.33 in earnings per share. The bank cited its earnings per share potential and discounted valuation as reasons for the call.
Persons: LSEG, ValueAct, Mason Morfit, Lululemon, Sprinklr, Smartsheet, Smucker, Goldman Sachs, , Samantha Subin, Michelle Fox, Lisa Han, Alex Harring Organizations: LSEG, Revenue, Old Dominion, Fluence Energy, Guggenheim, Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, JPMorgan
In today's big story, we're looking at why the US economy is on track (again) for a soft economic landing . The big storyAnother economic turnaroundGetty Images; Chelsea Jia Feng/BIIt took longer than expected, but the US economy is finally on track for a soft landing. After a scary few months of economic data that had investors fearing a recession and stagflation, the tides have turned again. AdvertisementRecent data showing inflation and the labor market cooling have given hope that a soft landing is in the cards — and may even be underway — for the US economy, writes Business Insider's Madison Hoff. AdvertisementThe US economy is about to make a soft landing — a situation in which inflation cools without causing a recession or sudden spike in unemployment.
Persons: , Chelsea Jia Feng, Insider's Madison Hoff, Arantza Pena Popo, bummed, it's, aren't, Johannes Eisele, Monica Schipper, Nordin Catic, Tyler Le Tim Cook, Cook, Jack Dorsey, Dorsey, Abanti Chowdhury, Sam Altman's, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Jack Sommers, George Glover, Annie Smith Organizations: Service, shoplifters, Business, Fed, Johannes, Getty, OpenAI, Apple, BI, Street Journal, Comcast, New York Stock Exchange Locations: AFP, New York, London
CNN —The US job market showed a softer side in April when just 175,000 jobs were added, marking one of the weakest months in the past three years. It was also well shy of economists’ expectations (for 235,000 jobs added) and sharply lower than the 315,000 net gain for March. A separate report released Thursday showed that fewer job cuts were announced in May than both the month and year before. Foreign-born workers: In addition to high labor force participation rates among prime working age individuals, specifically prime working-age women, the US labor market is benefiting from a boom in immigrant workers. Some of these workforce moves typically come at the end of the school year, meaning the May jobs report and June report could show the effects.
Persons: It’s, we’ve, Elizabeth Crofoot, , aren’t, Crofoot, Dean Baker, that’s, Julia Pollak, , ” Andrew Challenger, Ryan Sweet, CEPR’s Dean Baker Organizations: CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, BLS, Center for Economic, Policy Research, “ Employers, Department of Labor, Challenger, Secondary School Emergency, Oxford Economics Locations: State
Middle-class Americans are falling behind
  + stars: | 2024-06-06 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
Middle-class income growth has lagged behind that of the upper class since 1970, according to a Pew Research Center report published May 31. There are signs that middle-class Americans are dialing back their spending. Fast food joints, a mainstay dining destination for middle-income consumers, are leaning into discounts to placate frustrated diners. Kohl’s that same month reported weak first-quarter results, underlining how middle-income consumers are pulling back spending on non-essential clothing and discretionary merchandise at department stores. Economic growth has been anemic in recent years, squeezing living standards and starving public services of funds.
Persons: , Jennifer Jones Austin, Thomas Kingsbury, Narendra Modi, Diksha Madhok, Peeyush Mittal, Modi, ” Shilan Shah, ” Read, Hanna Ziady, Rishi Sunak, Sunak, Keir Starmer, Tony Blair, Starmer Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Pew Research, Living Coalition, Data, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Matthews Asia, Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP, Capital Economics, Conservative Party of, European Union, Labour Party, National Health Service, Labour, Conservative Party Locations: New York, India’s, India, United Kingdom, China, San Francisco, Beijing, Washington, Ukraine
Hundreds of mutual funds and hedge funds overlap in their investments, creating some shared favorites between the two different investment vehicles, according to Goldman Sachs. This basket of stocks—which includes Danaher , Mastercard , Vertiv and Uber —are constituents of both Goldman's Hedge Fund VIP and Mutual Fund Overweight baskets. "Hedge funds and mutual funds have boosted exposures to equities this year, with hedge fund net leverage rising near its highest level over the past year and mutual fund cash balances dropping to record lows. Visa shares are up about 4.6% for the year, lifted by stronger-than-expected earnings in the fiscal second quarter. Both stocks have had a tough quarter, however, with Visa falling 2.4% since the end of March, while Mastercard shares have lost 7.6%.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Vertiv, Uber, David Kostin, Kostin, Goldman, Alexander Blostein Organizations: Mastercard, VIP, Mutual Fund, FactSet, KKR, Visa, Tuesday's Locations: FRE
US stocks jumped on Monday as traders took in an improved outlook for Fed rate cuts. Investors see two rate cuts in 2024, per the CME FedWatch tool. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Expectations for rate cuts have been bolstered by a cooling labor market, which gives the Federal Reserve room to losen monetary policy. "Investors are viewing slow economic data as 'goldilocks,' with growing hope for Fed rate cuts," Mark Hackett, Nationwide's chief of investment research said in a statement on Wednesday.
Persons: , Nvidia's, Mark Hackett, Nationwide's Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Reserve, Apple, Microsoft, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Dover shares hit a rough patch this week, falling alongside many other industrials on concerns about the health of manufacturing after the release of soft PMI numbers Monday. Dover makes thermal connectors used in the liquid cooling of data centers, a process growing in popularity due to AI. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer's, DOV, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: Dover, Federal, CNBC Locations: Dover, Illinois
A soft landing is on the horizon, too — or already here depending on who you ask — and recent data reinforces that. AdvertisementThere has been a ton of moderation in this rate particularly when comparing recent changes to those seen in 2022, another sign pointing to a soft landing. AdvertisementThe soft landing might already be hereDavid Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, believes the US has already achieved a soft landing. "To me, a soft landing is when the unemployment rate has basically hit its full-employment level, and the inflation rate is gradually coming down to a rate that's acceptable," Kelly said. Advertisement"In other words, a fairly comfortable soft landing with occasional turbulence," Draho added.
Persons: , That's, it's, Joseph Briggs, Goldman Sachs, Briggs, Nick Bunker, Bunker, David Kelly, Kelly, Jason Draho, Draho, It's Organizations: Service, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, North America, UBS, Morgan Asset Management, UBS Global Wealth Management
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