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The equity market is due for a cooldown, according to several strategists, who are telling clients to begin positioning themselves defensively in preparation for a slow-growth earnings environment next year. The S & P 500 has rallied almost 24% this year, but is up 11% in the fourth quarter alone. The SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF , for example, is up 24% this quarter, but still down 12% for the year. According to Calvasina, industrials are the most overvalued sector in the S & P 500, while energy and communication services offer the most attractive valuations. .GSPHC YTD mountain S & P Health Care sector performance this year.
Persons: Venu Krishna, Krishna, haven't, Lori Calvasina, Calvasina, Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: Barclays, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Big Tech, Regional Banking, RBC Capital, P Health Care, JPMorgan Locations: Krishna, SPX, Europe
Here's a rapid-fire update on all the stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust, the portfolio we use for the CNBC Investing Club. If we get a sell-off in January, Eaton is a logical place to look to buy, Jim said. Procter & Gamble : It's possible that 2024 is a better year for P & G the company than P & G the stock, Jim said. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: Jim Cramer's, Jim, they'll, we've, there's, he'd, Dupont De, Ed Breen, Danaher, Walt Disney, Bob Iger, Trian's Nelson Peltz, Estee Lauder, Bausch, we're, Eaton, Mary, Eli Lilly's, he's, Vimal Kapur, Kapur, We've, Eli Lilly, Mark Zuckerberg, Morgan Stanley, Morgan, Elliott, Stanley Black, Decker, TJ Maxx, Charlie Scharf, it's, Jim Cramer, Virginia Sherwood Organizations: Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust, CNBC, Club, Broadcom, VMWare, Bausch, Bausch Health, Charitable Trust, Caterpillar, Federal, Costco Wholesale, Coterra Energy, Dupont De Nemours, Fed, Walt, Eaton Corporation, Ford, GE Healthcare, Google, Honeywell, New, Facebook, Meta, Reality Labs, Microsoft, Activision Blizzard, Nvidia, AMD, Apple, Palo Alto Networks, Procter & Gamble, Constellation Brands, Elliott Management, Constellation, Modelo, Corona, Street, TJX, TJ, Wynn Resorts, Jim Cramer's Charitable, NYSE Locations: hospitalizations, China, U.S, Palestine, Wells Fargo
The ETF flowdown: 2023 is back on pace to be a solid year
  + stars: | 2023-12-15 | by ( Kirsten Chang | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
watch nowDespite a sluggish start to the year, a record number of product launches and a red-hot November have put 2023 back on pace to be a solid year for ETFs. Roughly $1 trillion has gone into money market funds this year, but some are questioning whether the solid year-end stock rally will attract some of those flows back into equities. "You saw that enormous cash pileup going into money markets, and ETF flows were muted. "We talked about the money market funds," he said. He pointed to strong inflows into high-yield ETFs such as the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) and SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) and SPDR Bloomberg Short Term High Yield Bond ETF (SJNK) — along with dividend ETFs such as the Pacer U.S. Cash Cows 100 ETF (COWZ).
Persons: Ben Slavin, BNY Mellon, CNBC's, Andrew McOrmond, McOrmond, it'll, SPDR, Slavin Organizations: BNY, WallachBeth, SPDR Bloomberg, Pacer, Cash, Tech, RSP Locations: outflows
The market is going to worsen early in 2024 before recovering, according to Evercore ISI. The firm sees the S & P 500 falling in the first half of next year to 3,970 as a "recession materializes and politics [amplify] volatility." An inverted yield curve also portends the start of a recessionary period in the first quarter of 2024, he added. "'Defense Wins Championships' is a consistent theme between [the] last hike and first cut in the recession playbook," said Emanuel. By comparison, the S & P 500 is up 20.1% year to date.
Persons: That's, Julian Emanuel, Emanuel Organizations: ISI
JPMorgan predicts European stock markets will struggle to produce positive returns next year as investors digest slowing economic growth across the continent. The forecast for 2024 comes from the same team of strategists that have, so far, accurately called the MSCI Eurozone's performance this year. They expected the index to rise 9.1% to close at 256 points by the end of December 2023 on a local currency basis. "We look for flat European [earnings per share] growth in 2024, based on no recession materializing," said JPMorgan strategists led by Mislav Matejka in a note to clients on Nov. 29. The JPMorgan strategists believe stocks will sink in the first half of 2024 as markets factor in potential downward adjustments to earnings estimates.
Persons: Mislav Matejka, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, FTSE
After a year of steady, resilient growth, the US economy will finally slip into a recession in 2024. Deutsche Bank is also calling for double-digit profit growth in a weaker economic backdrop. "For 2024, the house economics view with a mild short US recession implies $250 (+10%)," Chadha wrote in reference to S&P 500 earnings. Deutsche Bank also foresees earnings growth next year. "We remain overweight the financials as well as consumer cyclicals as they are already priced for a recession and the biggest beneficiary of an eventual recovery," Chadha wrote.
Persons: That's, , Chris Grisanti, Brian Belski, Chadha, Belski, Financials, BMO's Organizations: Wall, Business, BMO Capital Markets, Deutsche Bank, MAI Capital Management, CNBC, BMO, Deutsche, Labor, Investors, Tech Locations: Chadha
If Wall Street stops hating consumer staples then PG is a winner, says Jim Cramer'Mad Money' host Jim Cramer takes a look at the consumer staples stocks that could benefit from peak rates.
Persons: Jim Cramer
Here are the indicators he's watching in 2024, and the trades investors should make now so that when the bull market finally arrives, they will be well-positioned to profit. Bank of America, alongside BMO, believes that the S&P 500 could beat its all-time high and soar over 5,000 next year. But in the back half of 2024, Hartnett believes the "3Cs" and the "3Ps" will combine to kick off a bull market in the "3Bs": bonds, bullion, and breadth. "Bonds can easily deliver equity-like returns in 2024," Hartnett wrote, particularly if "a weaker US economy & Fed cuts delivers cyclical decline in bond yields & US dollar (+ve gold)." Hartnett wrote that any panic policy moves could be a "catalyst for outperformance of leverage over quality, small over large, value over growth, international over US."
Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, there's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Business, America's, BMO, SOX Locations: XBD, Japan, China
"These measures could boost (earnings) growth and help asset prices recover in 2024," Liu said. As per the forecasts, the consumer staples and software sectors are set to post earnings growth of 40% and 30%, respectively. The consumer discretionary and industrial sectors are each expected to see roughly 20% growth, while the real estate sector may grow 18%. Such stable or growth-centric government policies would also boost investor confidence in the e-commerce and consumer sectors, Lau added. Maurer, however, points to how cheap Chinese stocks are and that the risks might already be priced in.
Persons: Minyue Liu, Liu, John Lau, Lau, Alec Jin, Jin, Caroline Yu Maurer, Maurer, Patturaja Murugaboopathy, Vidya Ranganathan Organizations: BNP, Management, Asia Pacific, SEI, Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Stock Connect, HSBC Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Asia, China, Shanghai, U.S
Sima Sistani, the 44-year-old CEO of WeightWatchers, is aware of this, and she recognized WeightWatchers had to evolve – or else. She also landed a massive deal to buy a telehealth business that can issue virtual prescriptions to patients for these weight loss drugs. Semaglutide was approved by the US Food and Drug Administration to treat type 2 diabetes as Ozempic, but it was also used off-label for weight loss. Some longtime users of the program feel betrayed by the pivot away from in-person meetings and toward medication-based solutions. “Sadly, they don’t want to do the work,” she said, of tracking food or exercising to achieve weight loss goals.
Persons: New York CNN —, Sima Sistani, WeightWatchers, she’s, Sistani, , ” Sistani, Erica Shroeder, , Jaap Arriens, ” Goldman Sachs, Jenny Craig, Adam Rockmore, Ged, Angela Weiss, Variety Sistani, there’s, Semaglutide, aren’t, “ there’s, Oprah Winfrey, Jamie Yonash, influencers, Velanti, Michael Nagle, We’re Organizations: New, New York CNN, Walmart, CNN, WeightWatchers, Variety, US Food and Drug Administration, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: New York, Cola, Wegovy
Next year could be the year for certain dividend stocks, according to Wolfe Research. The S & P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index is composed of companies that have increased dividends for at least 25 consecutive years. Here are some of the names in the S & P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index. For investors who prefer funds, they can also get exposure through the ProShares S & P 500 Dividend Aristocrats exchange-traded fund. NOBL YTD mountain ProShares S & P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed reporting.
Persons: Chris Senyek, Senyek, Wolfe, Roz Brewer, Tim Wentworth, Wentworth, Medtronic, Michael Bloom Organizations: Wolfe Research, Federal, Materials, Walgreens, Shields Health,
Goldman names global growth stocks set to make a comeback
  + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
European growth stocks haven't been doing as well as their U.S. peers this year. Growth stocks in the region have underperformed value stocks by 13% since the start of the rate-hiking cycle in 2022, according to Goldman Sachs in a Nov. 20 report. Bond yields appear to have peaked — a positive for growth stocks — and economic growth should speed up in the first quarter of next year — a positive for value stocks. The bank recommends an overweight rating for pure growth companies, namely those in its growth basket. Goldman said "pure growth" companies are more cyclical than quality stocks or stocks with stable margins.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Michael Bloom Organizations: Tech Locations: Europe
Economic growth should persist in 2024, albeit at a weaker pace, according to top strategists at UBS Global Wealth Management (GWM). "We do see the savings rate — the recent savings rate — as unsustainably low, and we expect it to rise over time," said Brian Rose, a senior economist and investment strategist at UBS GWM, during the webinar. "And really, the base of the economy depends very heavily on what happens to the savings rate." Rose continued: "If the savings rate just gradually drifts higher over time, then we can have a soft landing. 33 top stocks across sectorsWhile UBS is constructive about 2024, its strategists think investors should prepare for anything.
Persons: Solita Marcelli, Brian Rose, Rose, there's, Marcelli, Daniel Scansaroli, Nicolas Le Roux, Le Roux, financials Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management, UBS, Business, US, UBS GWM, Federal Reserve, UBS GWM's, Companies Locations: Americas, Ukraine, Israel, Europe, China, Japan, Australia
Much of the gains in the S & P 500 this year can be attributed to the "Magnificent Seven" stocks. The S & P 500 has rocketed nearly 19% in the year to date. His 2024 price target for the S & P 500 is 4,500. But, he said, "There's going to be … a very good stock picking opportunity, probably away from those seven [stocks] … where there should be more opportunities in the 493." "In today's volatile interest rate environment, we see this cohort offering a balance of relative performance stability along with attractive growth properties," Morgan Stanley said.
Persons: Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley, CNBC's, Wilson, they've, , we're, we've, barbells, Eli Lilly, Morgan Organizations: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Morgan, Microsoft Tech, Keysight Financial, Visa, Mastercard Consumer, Marriott International Pharmaceuticals, Walmart, Costco . Utilities, DTE Energy, Exelon Corporation . Energy, ConocoPhillips, Marathon Oil, Valero Energy Locations: U.S, Morgan Stanley Asia, Singapore
Here's how Morgan Stanley thinks the stock market will move in 2024, the economic warning signs investors should watch for, and which stocks are best positioned to outperform next year. A stronger stock market in 2024You'd think with the myriad problems stocks are facing right now that the market is in for a difficult year ahead. Wilson believes that earnings growth will accelerate as the year progresses. Morgan StanleyBeyond strong earnings growth for individual companies, Wilson expects that increased spending in a variety of industries will provide fiscal support across the market. Guided by the themes above, Wilson polled Morgan Stanley analysts for their top stock picks heading into 2024.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley Wilson, Wilson, Jerome Powell Organizations: Business, Reserve, Walmart, Target, Fed, White House Locations: headwinds, bailouts
Legendary value investor Jeremy Grantham is betting on a special caliber of stocks with his firm's first active ETF: the GMO U.S. Quality ETF. "There's a lot more interest in active ETFs than there was even a few years ago," Hancock told CNBC's "ETF Edge" this week. According to GMO's website, as of November 17th, the ETF's top holdings include Microsoft , UnitedHealth and Johnson & Johnson . "These are battleship companies that are going to remain relevant and important going forward." Shares of UnitedHealth are virtually flat while Johnson & Johnson is down more than 15%.
Persons: Jeremy Grantham, Tom Hancock, Hancock, CNBC's, Johnson Organizations: Quality, Microsoft, Johnson
Target's bright outlook lifted shares of other retailers including Macy's (M.N), which rose 7.5%, and Kohl's (KSS.N), which closed up almost 9%. The S&P 500 consumer staples index (.SPLRCS), which includes Target, was the top sector gainer, adding 0.7%. "Those two data points reaffirmed the message from Tuesday that the Fed seems to be navigating the soft landing quite well," said Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard. Among individual stocks, retailer TJX's (TJX.N) shares fell 3.3% after it forecast current-quarter profit below Wall Street expectations, signaling spiraling costs weighing on margins. The S&P 500 posted 42 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 106 new highs and 89 new lows.
Persons: ValueAct, Stocks, Ronald Temple, Wall, Temple, Brendan McDermid, Walt Disney, Russell, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Biden, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, decliners, Sinéad Carew, Sruthi Shankar, Amruta, Shinjini Ganguli, Maju Samuel, Pooja Desai, Richard Chang Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Target, Reuters, Lazard, Dow Jones, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Walt, ValueAct Capital, Money, U.S . House, Senate, Republican, TJX's, Sirius XM, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, New York, Bengaluru
Morning Bid: Ebbing oil sustains economic glow
  + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
Word "Oil" and stock graph are seen through magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. That drop, which takes annual producer price inflation as low as 1.3%, was driven largely by falling gasoline prices. And that meets news that China's oil refinery throughput fell back in October as industrial fuel demand weakened. The overall energy and inflation picture is helping buoy consumption and stokes the 'soft landing' narrative investors are betting on. The picture in overseas markets, where the economic picture is cloudier, was more mixed.
Persons: magnifier, Dado Ruvic, Mike Dolan, stokes, Mary Daly, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Xi, Biden, Washington, Christopher Waller, Lisa Cook, John Williams, Michael Barr, Loretta Mester, Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos, Andrea Enria, Dave Ramsden, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Alexander Smith Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Energy Information Administration, Walmart, Federal, San Francisco Fed, Treasury, U.S . Senate, Philadelphia Fed, Kansas City Fed, Applied, Ross Stores, Federal Reserve, Lisa Cook , New York Fed, Cleveland Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of England, New York Federal Reserve, Insider Intelligence, Reuters Graphics, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, United States, China . U.S, Target, San Francisco, Taiwan, China, Kansas, Treasuries, Lisa Cook , New, Franciso, Reuters Graphics China
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 26, 2023. Shares of Cisco Systems (CSCO.O) shed 11.5% as the communications and networking firm cut its full-year revenue and profit forecasts on slowing demand for its networking equipment. However, regional (Fed) authorities have very diverse opinions and (it) confuses investors," said Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston. However, Andersen said he is still optimistic about the possibility of a soft landing for the economy and a year-end rally. Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 1.02-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and for a 1.45-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Peter Andersen, Andersen, Michael Barr, Li Auto, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, advancers, Shristi Achar, Maju Samuel Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Cisco, Dow, Nasdaq, Walmart, Cisco Systems, Target, U.S . Federal, Andersen Capital Management, Treasury, Labor, Dow Jones, Palo Alto Networks, Baidu, U.S, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Boston, billings, Bengaluru
Contrary to popular perception, falling inflation and interest rate cuts won't necessarily be good for stocks, according to Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson. And falling inflation is bad for stocks because rising prices are what drives earnings, he explained. "Whenever inflation is falling like it is today, it's typically not good for the average stock because it's not good for earnings growth," Wilson explained. The bad news is that "it's pretty clear" that inflation is falling, he said. "So now that inflation is coming down, and they start cutting, just be careful what that means for stocks.
Persons: Morgan, Mike Wilson, Wilson, Morgan Stanley, we've, It's Organizations: Chief U.S, Equity, U.S . Federal Reserve, Morgan, Big Tech, Meta, Facebook, Apple, Netflix, Walmart, Costco . Utilities, DTE Energy, Exelon Corporation . Energy, ConocoPhillips, Marathon Oil, Valero Energy Locations: Chief, Morgan Stanley Asia, Singapore
UBS has highlighted several stock ideas it favors for 2024, as it forecasts massive cuts to interest rates next year. The investment bank expects the U.S. will see slower economic growth and strong disinflation leading to an interest rate cut of 275 basis points . Given the economic outlook, UBS strategists recommend a number of trades to clients for 2024. All the sectors apart from software trade on bigger discounts than normal against their US peers," the UBS strategists said. To reflect that view, UBS strategists said they favored gaining exposure to the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF in 2024.
Persons: Jonathan Pingle, Gerry Fowler, Sean Simonds, KWEB Organizations: UBS, Federal, CNBC, U.S, Investors, China Tech, Internet Technology, CSI China Internet Locations: U.S, China
The big-box retailer's stock has lost a quarter of its value in a turbulent year marked by elevated inflation. Shoppers have focused on food and essentials purchases while spending less on home goods, electronics, toys and apparel. Target sales declined by an average 7% in August and September alongside declines in transaction count and value, TD Cowen said in a note ahead of its earnings. On Wednesday, Target forecast adjusted earnings to land between $1.90 and $2.60 per share in the fourth quarter. It also expects holiday-quarter comparable sales to decline in the mid-single-digit percentage range, compared with expectations of a 3.97% drop.
Persons: Brian Cornell, Cornell, TD Cowen, Kendra Scott, Lucy Nicholson, Brian Mulberry, Price, Dave Wagner, Siddharth Cavale, Ananya Mariam Rajesh, Matthew Lewis, Chizu Nomiyama, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Target, Shoppers, Schwarz, Azusa , California U.S, REUTERS, Zacks Investment Management, Walmart, Consumer, Retail's, . Commerce Department, Aptus Capital Advisors, Thomson Locations: Azusa , California, New York, San Francisco, Seattle, Portland , Oregon, Bengaluru
[1/3] Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 15, 2023. The bright outlook lifted shares of other retailers including Macy's (M.N) and Kohl's (KSS.N), while the S&P 500 consumer staples index (.SPLRCS), which includes Target, was among the top sector gainers. "Those two data points reaffirmed the message from Tuesday that the Fed seems to be navigating the soft landing quite well," said Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard. The benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (.IXIC) had posted their biggest daily percentage gains in more than six months on Tuesday, after the consumer prices data. The S&P 500 posted 42 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 104 new highs and 69 new lows.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, ValueAct, Stocks, Ronald Temple, Temple, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Biden, Walt Disney, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, decliners, Sinéad Carew, Sruthi Shankar, Amruta, Shinjini Ganguli, Maju Samuel, Pooja Desai, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Companies, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Reuters, Lazard, Dow Jones, U.S . House, Senate, Republican, ValueAct Capital, Sirius XM, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, New York, Bengaluru
[1/3] Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 15, 2023. Target (TGT.N) advanced 17.6% as the big-box retailer forecast fourth-quarter profit largely above Wall Street expectations on easing supply-chain costs. The bright outlook also lifted shares of other retailers, while the S&P 500 consumer staples index (.SPLRCS), which houses Target, jumped 0.7%. U.S. producer prices eased more than expected amid a sharp drop in gasoline costs, providing further evidence that inflation was trending lower. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 2.05-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 2.13-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Chris Zaccarelli, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Biden, JD.com, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, Sruthi Shankar, Amruta, Shinjini Ganguli, Maju Samuel Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Companies, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Target, Reuters, U.S, Independent, Alliance, Dow Jones, U.S . House, Senate, Republican, Disney, ValueAct, Sirius XM, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Bengaluru
Tuesday, Nov. 14, 2023: Cramer says this consumer staples holding remains a 'buy'Jim and Jeff explain why they think you can still buy more shares of this consumer staples position in the Charitable Trust. They also discuss why they believe any housing-related stock stands to benefit most with lower interest rates. Finally, Jim says this megacap tech stock is not expensive despite reaching a new 52-week high today.
Persons: Cramer, Jim, Jeff Organizations: Charitable Trust
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