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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWhen watching earnings, you have to respect the trendlines, says Jay WoodsJay Woods, Chief Global Strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, discusses tech earnings and the broader markets.
Persons: Jay Woods Jay Woods Organizations: Chief Global, Freedom Capital Markets
Markets are closely monitoring Q4 earnings results, which began rolling out in mid-January, since they give much-needed clarity on the prior year while setting the tone for the year ahead. AdvertisementWhat to expect during the Q4 earnings seasonEarnings seasons often bring surprises, but there are also bankable bets. But we're going to be driven more by the macro, if we're excluding these mega-cap tech stocks." 3 sectors with boom-or-bust potentialWhile the strategists Business Insider spoke with didn't provide investing recommendations, several shared which sectors they're watching in Q4. Bianco believes the tech sector's earnings will rise over 20% this year.
Persons: , Matt Stucky, Stucky, David Kelly, UBS Josh Jamner, That's, Jamner, Carol Schleif, Schleif, there's, Anthony Saglimbene, David Bianco, Saglimbene, Bianco, Brad Klapmeyer, Klapmeyer, " Bianco, Ameriprise's Saglimbene, BMO's Schleif, Indrani De, De, she's, he'd, that's Organizations: Service, Business, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Asset Management, UBS, ClearBridge Investments, BMO Family Office, DWS, Macquarie Asset Management, FTSE Russell Locations: Americas
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarkets will switch focus from the Fed to earnings in the coming weeks, says Jeff KleintopJeff Kleintop, Chief Global Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, discusses the market action this week.
Persons: Jeff Kleintop Jeff Kleintop, Charles Schwab Organizations: Global Investment
BNY Mellon Wealth Management's chief investment officer explained why stocks have limited upside. Sinead Colton Grant has hit the ground running in her new role as the chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Wealth Management. What to expect in the economy this yearThe theme of BNY Mellon Wealth Management's 2024 outlook report is "a healthy slowdown." However, Colton Grant acknowledged that there are serious discrepancies between how high- and low-income households experience the economy. 5 top places to invest nowBNY Mellon Wealth Management may be neutral on equities broadly, but it has a bullish overweight rating on US stocks.
Persons: Sinead Colton Grant, BNY, she's, BNY Mellon, Colton Grant, David Kelly, Colton, Kelly, Colton Grant's Organizations: BNY Mellon Wealth, BNY Mellon Wealth Management, BNY Mellon, BNY, JPMorgan Asset Management, Business, Mellon Wealth Management, Federal Reserve, Mellon, Management, Asset Management, BMO Capital Markets Locations: BlackRock, Invesco
The small-cap Russell 2000 has dropped close to 4% against a fractional gain in the S & P 500 year to date. In broad terms, the S & P 500 could retreat to 4600 or so – about 4% down from here – and still be in a routine technical check-back to its latest launch point in early December. Todd Sohn of Strategas notes that the Invesco S & P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) saw inflows go vertical last year to $13.5 billion, 30% above its prior 12-month record. Betting on 'peacetime' Fed cuts Right or wrong, the market debate right now can never get far before turning into a Fed-policy-path discussion. Last week's CPI and PPI data added to the market's collective conviction that inflation's downside momentum is strong, opening the way for "peacetime" Fed rate cuts.
Persons: that's, Russell, Ned Davis, Tim Hayes, Tony Pasquariello, Goldman Sachs, Henry McVey, KKR's, McVey, Morgan Stanley, Todd Sohn, Strategas, they're, Jerome Powell Organizations: Ned Davis Research, Goldman, Nasdaq, Apple, CPI, PPI Locations: U.S
5 charts that explain why stocks took off last year
  + stars: | 2024-01-12 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
Stocks ended on a high note last year, but were tested by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes, banking turmoil, debt ceiling worries and war in the Middle East. Many early-year consensus predictions about what 2023 would bring — including a recession and several rate cuts — didn’t pan out. CNN spoke with five investors about the biggest lessons they learned and how they’ve helped shape their 2024 outlooks. Fundamentals have to start matteringThe S&P 500 index gained 24% last year despite an earnings recession, often defined as at least two straight quarters of corporate profit losses. Fourth-quarter earnings, which kick off on Friday with results from big banks, are expected to grow about 1% in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Persons: Stocks, they’ve, Taylor Swift, Beyoncé, David Kelly, , Kelly, Yung, Yu Ma, Don’t, George Cipolloni, Wall, Leslie Thompson, don’t, Thompson, she’s eyeing, FactSet, , Amanda Agati Organizations: New, New York CNN —, CNN, Asset Management, Treasury, BMO Wealth Management, Penn Mutual Asset Management, Fed, Spectrum Wealth Management, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Companies, PNC Asset Management Locations: New York
The headline U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% last month, for an annual gain of 3.4%, against expectations of 0.2% and 3.2%, respectively. Traders are pricing in aggressive expectations for rate cuts this year, with the Fed seen as beginning to cut rates in March. But "today's CPI report suggests that the Fed's initial rate cut may be later than the market is hoping for," said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina. "The question everyone is struggling with is what kind of inflation regime we are in - are we still in a 2010s era of low growth, low inflation and we're still just working through the end of the pandemic adjustment and then we're back into that?" The dollar index was last down 0.05% on the day at 102.29.
Persons: Bitcoin, Adam Button, Quincy Krosby, Button, it's, Loretta Mester, Thomas Barkin, Sterling Organizations: Federal Reserve, Consumer, Index, Fed, ForexLive, Traders, Financial, Cleveland Fed, Richmond Fed, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Wednesday Locations: Toronto, Charlotte , North Carolina, U.S
The consumer price index increased 0.3% for the month, higher than the 0.2% estimate at a time when most economists and policymakers see inflationary pressures easing. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the so-called core CPI also rose 0.3% for the month and 3.9% from a year ago, compared with respective estimates of 0.3% and 3.8%. On annual basis, shelter costs increased 6.2%, or about two-thirds of the rise in inflation. Food prices increased 0.2% in December, the same as in November. "Certainly, as long as shelter inflation remains stubbornly elevated, the Fed will keep pushing back at the idea of imminent rate cuts."
Persons: Dow Jones, Seema Shah Organizations: Labor Department, Energy, of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Fed, Asset Management Locations: U.S
Andrew Kelly | ReutersAfter years of unbridled consumer spending on everything from home improvement to dream vacations, some companies are now finding the limits of their pricing power. Nike last week lowered its annual sales growth forecast and unveiled plans to cut costs by $2 billion over the next three years. "Goods companies don't have the pricing power they did in the pandemic, and some in the hotel and travel [industries] — they don't have the pricing power they did in the immediate post-Covid," he added. Sales growth for companies in the S&P 500 is on track to average 2.7% this year, according to mid-December analyst estimates posted by FactSet. Consumer spending on apparel and groceries rose 2.4% and 2.1%, respectively, from the year-earlier period, according to the survey.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, Mills, Joe Cavaretta, David Kelly, FactSet, Kelly, isn't, airfare, John F, Bob Jordan, Jordan, Ohsung Kwon Organizations: FedEx, Reuters, Shipping, Airlines, Target, Nike, Spirit Airlines, Hasbro, Fort Lauderdale Hollywood International, South Florida Sun Sentinel, Tribune, Service, Getty, Florida Sun, Morgan Asset Management, FactSet, Mastercard, Starbucks, Airline, U.S . Department of Labor, Kennedy International, Southwest, CNBC, Detroit automakers, Toyota, Cox Automotive, Bank of America Locations: New York, speedier, Fort, South
Megacap technology stocks reascended the throne in 2023 after a debilitating 2022 left some investors sour on the outlook for the industry. The stocks are really going to have to show what the next big thing is." Even as it outperformed the market, the e-commerce giant's gains were overshadowed by other large megacaps flaunting their latest AI innovations, with some worrying Amazon may be falling behind on AI technology . Semiconductor companies Intel , Broadcom and Lam Research also look attractive even if Mag 7 stocks maintain their leadership position as AI proliferates, Woods said. "It's a story that is just starting to play out and we're just going to build on it going forward," he said.
Persons: Tesla, Jay Woods, hasn't, Capital's, Woods, aren't, DoorDash, Uber, Neuberger, Dan Flax, Bard, missteps, Gene Munster, Ken Mahoney, Richard Bernstein, wouldn't, Brent Fredberg, we're Organizations: Federal, Nvidia, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Freedom Capital, Asset Management, Richard Bernstein Advisors, Brandes Investment Partners, outperformance, Micron Technology, Semiconductor, Intel, Broadcom, Lam Research Locations: GOOGL
(PRO subscribers can view the official 2024 strategist survey here . ) "Lifting our 12-month S & P 500 target to 5100 as inflation falls, the Fed turns dovish, and real yields plunge," Kostin wrote. Other Wall Street firms with similarly bullish forecasts include Citigroup and BMO Capital Markets, which each have S & P 500 price targets of 5,100. Barclays' Venu Krishna was even more bearish, anticipating the S & P 500 would fall to 3,725. Entering the penultimate trading week of the year, the S & P 500 is almost 23% higher in 2023, while the Nasdaq Composite has advanced almost 42%.
Persons: , Stocks, Sam Stovall, Monday, Stovall, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin, John Stoltzfus, Stoltzfus, America's Savita Subramanian, JPMorgan's, Bujas, Morgan Stanley, BofA's Subramanian —, Venu Krishna, Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus, Dow Industrials Organizations: CNBC, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, CFRA Research, Goldman, Oppenheimer Asset Management, Citigroup, BMO Capital Markets, Bank, America's, Nvidia, Microsoft, Barclays, Nasdaq Locations: Friday's
[1/2] Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., December 1, 2023. The Pentagon said it was aware of reports regarding attacks on an American warship and commercial vessels in the Red Sea on Sunday, while Yemen's Houthi group claimed drone and missile attacks on two Israeli vessels in the area. Such worries flared after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack into southern Israel but subsided in recent weeks. Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, said a widening conflict could push some investors to take profits on the recent rally in stocks. Signs of an intensifying Middle East conflict could also boost oil prices, which have slumped in recent weeks.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Yemen's, Quincy Krosby, , , Phil Orlando, Federated Hermes, Santa Claus, Orlando, I'm, Krystal Hu, Ira Iosebashvili, Chizu Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Hamas, Pentagon, Reuters, LPL, U.S ., Federated, West Texas, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, American, Israel, United States, Iraq, Iran, Santa
The Russian invasion of Ukraine only three months later served to provide an immediate driver for greater political unity within Europe. China, Russia and even the United States under Donald Trump have expressed dissatisfaction with institutions such as the World Trade Organization, the G7 and the United Nations. watch nowThe void is particularly apparent at the WTO, where the lack of European leadership on trade as the U.S. turned inward is particularly felt. Perhaps nothing shows the consequences of the lack of European strength in preserving these institutions than the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, the combination of a split over Ukraine, and internal divisions within Europe, have prevented any way for Europe to play a key role with China.
Persons: Emmanuel Macron, Ursula von der Leyenââ, Pedro Sanchez Perez, Klaus Iohannis, Chancellor, Germany, Olaf Scholz, Charles Michel, Dursun, Angela Merkel, Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, Merkel, Ursula von der Leyen, Xi Jinping Organizations: European Commission, European, European Union, Anadolu Agency, Getty, World Trade Organization, United Nations, WTO, EU, NATO, APEC Locations: Spain, Romania, Brussels, Belgium, United States, China, Europe, Russia, Ukraine, Israel, U.S, Germany, Moscow, India, Southeast Asia, EU, East, Africa
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRate cut expectations for next year have gone too far, says Seema ShahSeema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management, discusses the markets and potential for a recession.
Persons: Seema Shah Seema Shah Organizations: Global, Asset Management
Veritas' Greg Branch: Don't believe rate hikes are over
  + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailVeritas' Greg Branch: Don't believe rate hikes are overGreg Branch, Veritas Financial Group managing partner, and Kristina Hooper, Invesco chief global market strategist, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss the Fed's Beige Book, markets reaction and outlook.
Persons: Branch, Greg Branch, Kristina Hooper Organizations: Veritas, Veritas Financial Group
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Veritas Financial's Greg Branch and Invesco's Kristina HooperGreg Branch, Veritas Financial Group managing partner, and Kristina Hooper, Invesco chief global market strategist, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss the Fed's Beige Book, markets reaction and outlook.
Persons: Greg Branch, Kristina Hooper Greg Branch, Kristina Hooper Organizations: Veritas, Veritas Financial Group
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on November 15, 2023 in New York City. U.S. stock futures opened higher on Wednesday night as all three major stock indexes prepared to wrap a winning November. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.07% and 0.10%, respectively. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.16% during the day, but is also roughly 0.7% away from its 2023 closing high. The S&P 500 is up 8.5% in November, while the Nasdaq has advanced nearly 11%.
Persons: Salesforce, Nutanix, Dow, Jay Woods, We've Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Freedom Capital Markets, CNBC, Fed, Kroger, Federal Reserve Locations: New York City . U.S, Snowflake, Nutanix
The bank sees the S & P 500 ending 2024 at 4,200. "Equities are now richly valued with volatility near the historical low, while geopolitical and political risks remain elevated." Stocks have had a banner year in 2023, with the S & P 500 surging more than 18%. Those gains have been largely driven by sharp rallies from names tied to artificial intelligence, including Nvidia and Meta Platforms . Specifically, he sees S & P 500 profits growing 2% to 3% next year.
Persons: Bujas, Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, Nvidia, Meta, Federal Locations: U.S
Berkshire Hathaway vice chairman Charlie Munger dies at 99
  + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +12 min
Nov 28 (Reuters) - Charlie Munger, the longtime vice chairman and second-in-command to Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa.N), died on Tuesday morning at a California hospital. For stock-pickers like us to lose Charlie Munger, would be like if you’re a basketball fan and you lose Bill Russell. "I wouldn't think Berkshire will look much different, apart from Buffett no longer being able to share ideas with Munger. CATHERINE SEIFERT, VICE-PRESIDENT, CFRA RESEARCH, NEW YORK“Berkshire Hathaway shareholders are not going to be directly or negatively impacted from the passing of Charlie Munger. Therewass already a transition plan in place and there's a transition plan in place when Warren Buffett passes away.
Persons: Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett, Charlie, WHITNEY TILSON, BRIAN MOYNIHAN, Charlie Mungerwass, ” BURNS MCKINNEY, Bill Russell, , Berkshire Hathaway, ” PHIL ORLANDO, FEDERATED HERMES, BILL, Buffett, Munger, PHILLIP, , STEVE SOSNICK, , ” WIN MURRAY, DIAMOND, MARY JO, BILL SMEAD, Warren, ” “ Buffett, Todd Combs, Ted Weschler, ” PAUL LOUNTZIS, Greg Abel, I've, you'll, STEPHEN DODSON, hewass, ” PAUL NOLTE, FOR MURPHY, Warren Buffet, they've, QUINCY KROSBY, RICK MECKLER, CHERRY, NEW VERNON, Hewass, obviouslywass, DOUG KASS, ” THOMAS RUSSO, GARDNER RUSSO, QUINN, CATHERINE SEIFERT, he's, ” ANTHONY SAGLIMBENE, THOMAS HAYES Organizations: Berkshire Hathaway, COOK, APPLE, WHO, KASE, OF, FEDERATED, Berkshire, ” WIN, THE BRETTON, SAN, SYLVEST, NEW, Buffett, GREAT, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: California, Munger, Berkshire, American, DALLAS , TEXAS, GLENVIEW, CALIFORNIA, CONNECTICUT, DIAMOND HILL, COLUMBUS , OHIO, PHOENIX, ” “ Berkshire, , PENNSYLVANIA, ELMHURST, IL, CHARLOTTE, NC, CHERRY LANE, NEW JERSEY, LANCASTER , PENNSYLVANIA, Munger . Berkshire, TROY , MICHIGAN, GREAT HILL
Mahmud Hams | Afp | Getty ImagesWar-battered Gaza's already fragile economy lies in ruins, much like its buildings, following more than a month of bombings by Israel after Hamas militants attacked the country in October. "Gaza's economy is 100% dependent on two sources of revenue: foreign aid and access to Israel's labor market. According to the United Nations, during the 1970s and 1980s, the Palestinian economy saw relatively strong capital inflows, largely due to remittances from Palestinian workers in Israel and the Gulf countries. Things changed after Hamas gained power in Gaza in 2006 when Israel relinquished its control of the enclave. The U.N. classifies Israel as an occupier state over the Palestinian territories of the West Bank and Gaza.
Persons: Khan Younis, Mahmud Hams, Gazans, Marko Papic, Kevin Klowden Milken, Kevin Klowden, Israel, Raja Khalidi, Klowden, Khalidi Organizations: Afp, Getty, United Nations, Food, Clocktower, CNBC, West Bank, Economic Policy Research, International Labor Organization, United Nations Development, Milken Institute, Palestine Economic Policy Research Institute, Hamas, Palestinian Authority Locations: Gaza, Mahmud, Israel, Ramallah, West, Santa Monica , California, Egypt, Palestine, Saudi, Palestinian
REUTERS/Andrew Kelly Acquire Licensing RightsSummary poll dataBENGALURU, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Most key global stock indexes are forecast to rise modestly over the coming year, closing 2024 below record highs, while a slim majority of stock market experts polled by Reuters expected their markets to touch new peaks within the next six months. However, only a handful of the 15 top stock indexes were predicted to trade at record peaks by end-2024, based on a wider Nov. 9-22 poll of more than 120 stock market experts. LOWER BOND YIELDSFor now, markets are pricing in a series of 2024 rate cuts, which is sending bond yields lower and stock prices higher. "Falling bond yields are being interpreted by equity markets as a positive in the near-term," said Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at J.P. Morgan. Canada's main stock index was expected to rise less than previously thought over the coming year as a slowdown in the global economy weighs on the outlook for corporate earnings.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Marko Kolanovic, Morgan, Hari Kishan, Indradip Ghosh, Ross Finley, Alex Richardson Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Reuters, Traders, U.S . Federal, Barclays, Nikkei, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, BENGALURU, Monday's, Bengaluru, Buenos Aires, London, Mexico City, Milan, New York, San Francisco, Sao Paulo, Tokyo, Toronto
Still, stocks have risen sharply in recent weeks on the view the Fed is done hiking rates. Big tech-related shares were among those giving the S&P 500 its biggest boost. Communication services (.SPLRCL) rose 0.9%, leading S&P 500 gains in all sectors except for energy (.SPNY), which fell 0.1%. Among the day's negatives, Nvidia's (NVDA.O) shares fell 2.5%, a day after the chip designer forecast overall fourth-quarter revenue above Wall Street targets, but warned U.S. export curbs could lead to a steep drop in sales in China. The S&P 500 posted 45 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 89 new highs and 104 new lows.
Persons: Quincy Krosby, Brendan McDermid, decliners, Caroline Valetkevitch, Amruta Khandekar, Maju Samuel, Pooja Desai, Richard Chang Organizations: Deere, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Financial, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow Jones, Communication, Wall, U.S, Deere & Co, NYSE, Thomson Locations: China, Charlotte , North Carolina, New York City, U.S
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 15, 2023. Among the day's economic data, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week. Still, stocks have risen sharply in recent weeks on the view that Fed is done hiking rates. She said stocks tend to rise just before the Thanksgiving holiday and also to rally heading into year-end. The S&P 500 posted 45 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 80 new highs and 89 new lows.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Quincy Krosby, Caterpillar, decliners, Amruta Khandekar, Maju Samuel, Pooja Desai, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Deere, Dow, Nasdaq, Financial, U.S, Dow Jones, Wall, Deere & Co, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, Charlotte , North Carolina
"These expectations have risen in spite of the fact that consumers have taken note of the continued slowdown in inflation," survey Director Joanne Hsu said in a statement. But progress this year has been inconsistent, and Fed officials remain wary of the potential for a reversal. That said, the University of Michigan survey results are at odds with other measures of inflation expectations that have shown they have in fact been moderating. A New York Fed survey of consumers last week, for instance, showed inflation expectations over both one-year and five-year horizons eased in October even as the Michigan survey showed them accelerating. Market-based measures of inflation expectations are also declining.
Persons: Joanne Hsu, Quincy Krosby, Dan Burns, Chizu Organizations: Federal Reserve, University of Michigan's, Fed, Global, LPL, University of Michigan, New York Fed, . Treasury, Securities, Thomson Locations: Michigan
CNBC Pro reviewed FactSet data to see how the major indexes fared 12 months after the final rate hike in prior cycles. In fact, as Hooper observed, the S & P 500 saw double-digit returns following the last increase in five out of the last six rate-hiking cycles. After the final rate hike in June 2006, the S & P 500 gained 18% in the following 12 months, in the runup to the Global Financial Crisis. The S & P 500 lost 12%, while the Nasdaq Composite plunged 41%. The Dow alone came out in positive territory 12 months out.
Persons: Invesco's Kristina Hooper, CNBC's, it's, Hooper, Russell, Dow, Invesco's Hooper Organizations: CNBC Pro, Nasdaq, CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial, Global
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