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☆ A stock market correction is coming as rates, inflation, and valuations darken the outlook for investors, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-19 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

AdvertisementThe stock market is in for a correction, as a trio of unfavorable factors will weigh on equity prices, according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research. Tech stocks, which have dominated the market in recent years, are trading at a 68% premium. Stocks could see their first "crack in the ice" in the tech sector, he added, pointing to lofty valuations among mega-cap tech stocks. AdvertisementOther forecasters have warned of limited upside to the market as stocks — particularly tech stocks — continue to climb higher. According to one valuation metric, the stock market looks to be the most overvalued since 1929, which could pave the way to a steep correction, elite investor John Hussman warned.

Persons: Sam Stovall, —, Stovall, Stocks, John Hussman Organizations: Service, CFRA Research, Wall, Treasury, Tech, CNBC

☆ UK inflation is finally back at 2%. Here’s why rate cuts are still ‘off the table’
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-19 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

That suggests the Bank of England won’t follow the European Central Bank in cutting interest rates when it meets Thursday. A rate cut in August, when UK policymakers meet next, is now also less likely. Other economists, including analysts at Nomura, thought an August rate cut was still possible if pay rises and the price of services cooled further. “For an August rate cut, we will need other economic news to play ball,” the analysts wrote in a note. UK inflation peaked at 11.1% in October 2022, driven to a 41-year high by surging food and energy costs.

Persons: ”, Zara Noakes, Rebecca Florisson, Jake Finney Organizations: London CNN —, Bank of, Bank of England, European Central Bank, JPMorgan Asset Management, Nomura, “ Workers, Work Foundation, Lancaster University, PwC Locations: United Kingdom, England, United States, Europe

☆ Dollar firm as euro wallows; yuan brushes aside China data
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The dollar was firm on Monday as the euro hovered near a more than one-month low amid continued concerns about the political outlook in Europe. The yuan held close to a multi-month low after China released a slew of economic data that pointed to an uneven recovery in the world's second-largest economy. A Reuters poll published last week showed 63 of 65 economists thought a first cut would not come until Aug. 1. Elsewhere, the yuan was mostly flat at 7.2550 per dollar after domestic data showed a mixed economic picture in China. China's central bank left a key policy rate unchanged as expected on Monday as the weak yuan continued to hamper policy easing.

Persons: Emmanuel Macron's, Matt Simpson, Neel Kashkari, Index's Simpson, Sterling, Kazuo Ueda, bitcoin Organizations: U.S, Gazprom, European Central Bank, Reuters, Index, . Minneapolis Federal, Bank of England, Bank of Japan Locations: Poland, Bulgaria, Europe, China, U.S

☆ The job market has 3 weak spots that could bring steeper Fed rate cuts, Goldman Sachs says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-17 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Comparing today's job market to previous years when the Fed cut rates also shows some cause for concern. AdvertisementIf the job market continues to weaken, that makes a greater case for the Fed to cut rates, the bank said. Related storiesHere are three areas of labor market weakness that could mean more downside for interest rates:1. Employment is also falling among workers aged 16-24, the "most volatile" cohort of the job market, strategists added. Just 10%-15% of new labor market entrants are finding a job, according to Goldman's analysis of labor market data.

Persons: —, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, Labor, Fed, Department of Labor, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, of Labor Statistics, Goldman, Industries, Labor Department Locations: ManpowerGroup

☆ Fed's Kashkari says it's 'reasonable' to predict a December rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari on Sunday said it's a "reasonable prediction" that the U.S. central bank will cut interest rates once this year, waiting until December to do it. It also published projections that showed the median forecast from all 19 U.S. central bankers was for a single interest rate cut this year. Kashkari, who has been more cautious about the possibility of easing monetary policy than many of his colleagues, did not say how many rate cuts he personally expects. Inflation by the Fed's targeted measure, the year-over-year change in the personal consumption expenditures price index, registered 2.7% in April. "If we simply cut interest rates to try to support home ownership right now, that would probably push up the price of houses, and it actually wouldn't lead to any better affordability," he said.

Persons: Neel Kashkari, it's, Kashkari Organizations: Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Kansas City Fed, Minneapolis Federal, CBS, Fed Locations: Jackson, Wyoming, Minneapolis, U.S

☆ America’s top central banker says the job market is back to normal. Is that true?
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-16 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Washington CNN —America’s top central banker recently said the job market now looks the way it did before the Covid-19 pandemic drastically upended society. Before the Bell spoke with Julia Pollak, chief economist at jobs site ZipRecruiter, about her views of the job market. Before the Bell: Do you agree with Chair Powell’s view that today’s job market is back to a pre-pandemic normal? Why is the job market slower now? The number of job openings is higher than it was by around 15% or so, but online job postings are actually lower by ZipRecruiter’s count.

Persons: Washington CNN —, “, Jerome Powell, Powell, it’s, Bell, Julia Pollak, they’re, They’re, Olesya Dmitracova, Emmanuel Macron, Read, Patrick Harker, Lisa Cook, Tom Barkin, Susan Collins, Adriana Kugler, Lorie Logan, Alberto Musalem, Goolsbee Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, Washington CNN, Fed, Labor, EU, National, New York Fed, Manufacturing Index, Reserve Bank of Australia, US Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, National Association of Home Builders, Accenture, Kroger, Darden, Bank of England, US Labor Department, Philadelphia Fed, Richmond Fed, Global, National Association of Realtors Locations: Washington, France, Wells Fargo

☆ Why the Fed's rate-cutting agenda could spark a recession, according to top economist Mohamed El Erian
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Read previewThe Federal Reserve's path of rate cuts could be what ends up causing a US recession, according to top economist Mohamed El-Erian. Elevated interest rates could cut into economic activity and employment, Powell said at a press conference on Wednesday. At this point, the economy faces a bigger risk of recession than rampant inflation, El-Erian suggested. The recession outlook remains mixed, given the cocktail of tight financial conditions and resilient economic growth so far. According to New York Fed economists, the US has a 52% chance of slipping into recession by May next year.

Persons: —, Mohamed El, Erian, Powell Organizations: Service, Business, Fed, Yahoo Finance, San Francisco Fed, New York Fed, Consumer Locations: El

☆ Here are 9 stocks that can benefit from Fed interest rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-13 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Housing We see Stanley Black & Decker as a major beneficiary of Fed rate cuts due to its link to the housing market. On the one hand, lower rates mean a bank like Wells Fargo makes less money on the money it lends. Biotech Danaher should also see some benefit as lower rates lead to improved funding dynamics for biotech companies. Like in housing, monthly payments become far more manageable at lower rates, and therefore affordability and demand, stand to increase. Salesforce , which has also highlighted more measured deal activity, might not benefit as much from lower rates.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Stanley Black, Decker, Stanley, That's, Wells, Morgan Stanley, SVB, Ford, We're, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, David Paul Morris Organizations: Nasdaq, CNBC, Fed, Biotech, Silicon Valley Bank, Ford, Palo, Networks, Microsoft, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: Wells, Wells Fargo, Silicon Valley, Colma , California

☆ CPI report: Inflation slowed in May, hinting at welcome relief for consumers
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-12 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Falling gas prices kept inflation in check following a 0.3% gain in April. “Adding to the good inflation news, core services inflation (excludes energy services) printed its mildest monthly increase since September 2021,” Kathy Bostjancic, Nationwide’s chief economist, wrote in a note issued Wednesday. On an annual basis, shelter inflation slowed a tenth of a percentage point to 5.4%, which is its lowest rate since April 2022. Still, those costs continue to run hot for consumers, with transportation services prices up 10.5% from a year ago and car insurance up 20.3%. Soft CPI boosts chances for Fed cutsThe CPI, which tracks average change in prices for a basket of goods and services common to consumers, is the most widely cited inflation metric.

Persons: ” Philip T, Powell, They’re, ” Kathy Bostjancic, Indiana University’s Powell, it’s, ” Sean Snaith, ” Preston Caldwell, Tool, “, ” Scott Anderson Organizations: CNN, Inflation, Federal, Bureau of Labor Statistics ’, Indiana Business Research Center, Indiana University Kelley School of Business, Federal Reserve, CPI, Transportation, University of Central, Soft, Fed, Morningstar, BMO Bank Locations: “, Indiana, University of Central Florida

☆ Key takeaways from the Fed’s latest interest rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-12 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Officials penciled in just one rate cut this year, according to their latest economic projections, compared to the three they forecast in March. They also expect inflation to be more stubborn this year than they thought in the spring, according to their forecasts. The Fed has kept interest rates at a 23-year high for nearly a year, after kicking off an aggressive rate-hiking campaign in March 2022. Here are key takeaways from the Fed’s latest decision on interest rates. Still-high inflation is continuing to eat into some budgets, pandemic savings are drying up, borrowers continue to pile on more debt and the highest interest rates in nearly a quarter century are squeezing Americans.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, ’, it’s, ”, “ We’ve, ” Powell, trickling, Wall, Matt Colyar, “ Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, That’s, CPI, Fed, Moody’s Locations: April’s

☆ How to Read the Fed’s Projections Like a Pro
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-12 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to release both an interest-rate decision and a fresh set of economic projections on Wednesday, and Wall Street has been eagerly awaiting those revised estimates for clues on when interest rate cuts may begin. Officials are expected to leave rates unchanged in a range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent, where they have been since July 2023. The question now is when officials may begin to cut rates — and how much borrowing costs will actually move down. Investors will carefully parse the Fed’s fresh forecasts for hints. The dot plot, decodedWhen the central bank releases its Summary of Economic Projections each quarter, Fed watchers focus obsessively on one part in particular: the so-called dot plot.

Organizations: Federal Locations: Central

☆ What to Watch as the Fed Meets
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-12 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Central bankers have held rates at 5.3 percent since July after a rapid series of increases starting in early 2022. Policymakers came into 2024 expecting to lower rates several times, but inflation has proved surprisingly stubborn, delaying those reductions. At the conclusion of their two-day meeting on Wednesday, Fed officials will release economic projections for the first time since March, updating how many rate cuts they expect this year. Regardless, central bankers are likely to remain coy about an important question: Just when will they begin lowering borrowing costs? Given that, officials are likely to try to keep their options open.

Organizations: Federal, coy

☆ 'Clear path to a soft landing': Here's what Wall Street sees for Fed rate cuts after May inflation came in cool
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-12 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Investors cheered a soft May inflation report, which could pave the way for Fed easing this year. Rate cuts in September are "overwhelmingly likely," one economist said. AdvertisementSome Wall Street analysts predict the Fed's first cut could come as soon as July, though most see a rate cut in September as the most likely scenario. "But rate cuts starting by September should now be cemented as overwhelmingly likely." Investors are waiting for Fed Chair Jerome Powell to speak later Wednesday afternoon, which should give markets more guidance on the path of rate cuts.

Persons: —, Skyler Weinand, Regan Capital, Preston Caldwell, Morningstar's, Ryan Severino, BGO, Jerome Powell, Weinand, David Russell Organizations: Service, of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Fed

☆ What the Fed’s interest rate decision means for your savings
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-12 | by ( Jeanne Sahadi | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Online high-yield savings accountsThe best bang for your savings can still be had in online high-yield savings accounts at FDIC-insured banks, which yield way more than today’s 0.58% overall average savings rate. As of June 11, the average online savings account rate was 4.40%, according to DepositAccounts.com. If you leave it parked in a regular savings account at 0.5%, you’ll get $50 in interest for a year. As with any savings account, banks can lower the rate they offer — also known as the APY — at any time. Money market accounts and money market fundsMoney market deposit accounts and money market mutual funds are generating yields competitive with the best high-yield savings accounts.

Persons: ’, ”, Greg McBride, ” McBride, you’ll, —, McBride, “, Collin Martin, Martin Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, National Credit Union Share Insurance, Securities Investor Protection Corporation, Treasury, Fed, Schwab Center, Financial Research Locations: New York, Schwab.com, United States

☆ Fed meeting and inflation report both hit Wednesday, and the impact could be huge
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-11 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Jerome Powell, Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, speaks during the conference celebrating the Centennial of the Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington D.C., United States on November 08, 2023. None of those numbers are dramatically different from the April readings, and still show inflation running well above the Fed's 2% target. Central bankers prefer the Commerce Department's measure of personal consumption expenditures prices, a broader measure that also accounts for changes in consumer behavior. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the CPI report at 8:30 a.m. The Fed meeting

Persons: Jerome Powell, Celal Gunes, Jonathan Pingle, Pingle, tinker, Jack Janasiewicz, —, Janasiewicz Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, of Research, Statistics, Governors, Federal, System, Washington D.C, Getty, Anadolu, Federal Reserve, UBS, CPI, Investment, Labor Statistics Locations: Washington, United States, Anadolu

☆ The Fed is winning its battle against inflation. So why isn’t it cutting rates?
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-11 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

That’s why it is crucial for central bankers to insist on 2%. “By communicating an explicit inflation target — and then delivering inflation consistent with that target — central banks earn credibility with the public,” New York Fed President John Williams said in a recent speech. Stripping away highly volatile categories such as food and energy — a measure referred to as “core” inflation — won’t quell central bankers’ concerns. The Fed can’t ignore CPIAlthough CPI isn’t the inflation gauge the Fed targets, central bankers don’t write it off. It was, however, welcome news to Fed officials that Consumer Price Index-measured inflation fell to 3.4% in April from 3.5% in March.

Persons: Frank Robinson, “, they’re, Jerome Powell, ” Powell, Ben Bernanke, they’ll, John Williams, hasn’t, ”, Tom Barkin, don’t, Christopher Waller Organizations: New, New York CNN —, Federal, Fed, New York Fed, ” New York Fed, ” Richmond Fed, CPI Locations: New York

☆ Stock futures are little changed ahead of Fed's rate decision, consumer inflation data: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-11 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures oscillated near the flatline Tuesday night as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and May's consumer inflation data. S&P 500 futures inched lower by 0.01%, while Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed. During Tuesday's trading, investors' rotation into Apple helped lift the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite to fresh closing highs. Investors are looking to Wednesday's conclusion of the Fed's two-day policy meeting, which will feature an rate policy decision and a subsequent press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Investors have grown increasingly concerned that the recent strong jobs report and sticky inflation support a higher-for-longer interest rate environment.

Persons: Dow, Jerome Powell, Quincy Krosby Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Oracle, Google, Apple, LPL

☆ Fed Is in No Rush to Cut Rates as Economy Holds Up
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-11 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

They are not sure how quickly inflation will cool, how much the economy is likely to slow or just how long interest rates need to stay high in order to make sure that quick price increases are fully vanquished. That is the message central bankers are likely to send at their two-day meeting this week, which concludes on Wednesday. Officials are expected to leave interest rates unchanged while avoiding any firm commitment about when they will cut them. Economists think that there is a small chance that officials could even predict just one cut this year. But whatever they forecast, officials are likely to avoid giving a clear signal of when rate reductions will begin.

Organizations: Federal, Fed, Economists

☆ Buying a home is probably never getting cheaper as rates aren't coming down and pandemic migration trends persist, 'Shark Tank' investor Kevin O'Leary says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-10 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The "Shark Tank" investor predicted high mortgage rates were here to stay. Pandemic migration trends also aren't reversing, which has kept home prices elevated. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe housing market probably isn't ever going to get any cheaper, according to "Shark Tank" star Kevin O'Leary. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.

Persons: Kevin O'Leary, —, that's Organizations: Service, Fox Business, Business

☆ Fed policy hasn't cooled the labor market and a 'serious consumer recession' could strike if services jobs tumble, real estate billionaire Barry Sternlicht says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewThe Federal Reserve's aggressive inflation fight hasn't worked to cool off the job market, and the central bank risks sparking a "serious" downturn for US consumers, according to real estate billionaire investor Barry Sternlicht. Sternlicht said high interest rates haven't loosened the job market even in the most rate-sensitive areas like construction. Related storiesJobs in the healthcare industry have climbed 1.4 million since March 2022, the month the Fed first began raising interest rates. The Fed keeping interest rates higher for longer risks further weakening the job market. Other Wall Street forecasters have been warning of the risk of recession, especially as interest rates look poised to stay higher for longer.

Persons: —, hasn't, Barry Sternlicht, Sternlicht, Jerome Powell, He's Organizations: Service, Starwood Capital, Business, Fed, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNBC, Challenger, New

☆ Stock market today: Indexes rise as weak private payroll data boosts optimism for rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Stocks rose on Wednesday as investors took in weaker jobs data. Investors are solidly betting on at two rate cuts in 2024, according to the CME FedWatch tool. AdvertisementUS stocks ticked higher on Wednesday as traders took in soft jobs data and revved up their hopes for Fed rate cuts later this year. Meanwhile, annual wage growth remained level at 5% — both promising signs that the job market is coolingWeaker hiring trends are good news for the outlook for rate cuts. Investors are largely expecting the Fed to hold interest rates steady at its next policy meeting, but are still feeling bullish on rate cuts by the end of the year.

Persons: —, 1750,000 Organizations: Service, Treasury, ADP, Bank of America, Investors

Thursday is a big day for the European Central Bank. It is widely expected to lower interest rates by a quarter percentage point, its first cut since 2019 — and outpace the Fed in lowering borrowing costs. The big questions on our mind: Will Christine Lagarde, the central bank’s president, signal further cuts at its July and September meetings? The good news: Economists say the era of elevated rates around the world is coming to an end. But they add that sticky inflation will tie central bankers’ hands, limiting their ability to lower borrowing costs much.

Persons: Will Christine Lagarde, Holger Schmieding, DealBook Organizations: European Central Bank, Berenberg Bank Locations: Brussels

☆ Dollar finds footing as traders turn to U.S. services data
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

US Dollar notes and euro coins are arranged for a photograph on Sept. 11, 2017. The dollar steadied on Wednesday as traders pared back on riskier bets in emerging markets while waiting on an interest rate decision in Canada and on U.S. services data. Japanese real wages fell for a 25th straight month in April, data on Wednesday showed, as inflation outpaces nominal pay rises. The Swiss franc rose for a fourth straight session on the dollar overnight and at 0.8902 per dollar is close to breaking through its 200-day moving average. The New Zealand dollar was steady at $0.6173, while the Canadian dollar held the middle of a months-long range at C$1.3678 per dollar.

Persons: Jane Foley, Ryozo Himino, Narendra Modi, Chris Weston Organizations: Swiss, Bloomberg News, Bank of, Rabobank, BOJ, Westpac, New Zealand, African National Congress, Morena Locations: Canada, U.S, Bank of Japan, Asia, Japan, Morena

☆ Brace for a 10% slide in the S&P 500 as stagflation makes the Fed unlikely to cut rates, Stifel says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-04 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market is headed for a 10% decline over the next quarter, Stifel analysts warned. AdvertisementThe stock market is headed for a sell-off in the coming months that will see the S&P 500 drop 10%, according to Stifel strategists. When adjusted for inflation, the overall S&P 500 remains below its level at the end of 2021 — something that could be "emblematic of underlying problems" in the market, Stifel said. "We continue to forecast the S&P 500 corrects about -10% to ~4,750 before the end of 3Q 2024 from the recent peak," strategists said in a note on Tuesday. When the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 transitions out of a Secular Bull Market it historically enters a 'Secular Bear Market,' which is a much more treacherous period for investors."

Persons: —, Stifel, Stocks Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Secular

☆ 5 moves investors can make as they navigate extreme speculation with the potential for huge losses, according to elite investor Gary Shilling
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The investing environment is loaded with risks, according to top forecaster Gary Shilling. AdvertisementStock market investors are facing the risk of huge losses as the economy slows, and there are five rules they should follow to prepare for future headwinds, according to elite forecaster Gary Shilling. The stock market's setup also looks troubling. Shilling has advised investors in Chinese stocks to switch to Indian assets for months, citing factors like better economic growth prospects and population growth. AdvertisementShilling has maintained a notably bearish view on stocks and the economy, despite more investors warming up to the possibility of soft landing.

Persons: Gary Shilling, —, Shilling, Steer Organizations: Service, Stock, Reserve, Nvidia Locations: China, India

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