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☆ A slate of banks slashed CD yields. Here’s where you can still find a solid rate
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-26 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Online banks, which have offered some of the richest annual percentage yields on savings products, are slashing the interest they pay. Though the 1-year Treasury bill is yielding about 4.78%, select institutions will offer upward of 5% to hold your cash in a 1-year CD. "We believe banks are repositioning their CD rates ahead of potential Fed rate cuts in 2024," said analyst Michael Kaye in a report on Friday. See below for a table of where online banks now stand on 1-year CD rates. Wells Fargo scanned the online banks under its coverage and found the average APY for a 1-year CD was 0.64% in March 2022.

Persons: Wells Fargo, Michael Kaye, Mark Haefele, Cash Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, CME Group, Synchrony, UBS Locations: Wells

☆ Even with progress on inflation and solid growth, the Fed will want to see more before cutting rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Solid economic economic growth combined with decelerating inflation feels like the perfect combination for the Federal Reserve to dial down its restrictive monetary policy. More broadly, though, the resilient nature of the economy brought the Fed closer to its goal of arresting inflation without crushing growth. On the balance between the threat of overheating growth and the positive developments on inflation, Bovino thinks the Fed will be more inclined to cast a wary eye on the growth side. "They have their work cut out for them." "They want to make absolutely sure inflation is killed, and they're not going to cut rates until that is the case."

Persons: Beth Ann Bovino, there's, Bovino, they'll, Bill Adams, Jerome, Powell, Gus Faucher, haven't, Dan North, they're Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S . Bank, Commerce Department's, Economic, CME Group, Comerica Bank, Fed, PNC Financial Services, North America, Allianz Trade

☆ JPMorgan says investors wishing for early and aggressive rate cuts will be disappointed
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-23 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Rising geopolitical headwinds and the potential for political turmoil could combine to thwart investors' hopes for the Federal Reserve to enact sharp interest rate cuts this year, according to JPMorgan Chase strategists. Markets have been betting that the Fed likely will start lowering its benchmark short-term borrowing rate by May or even as early as March. JPMorgan's investment team said the calculus could be important for investors as stocks and other asset classes look for direction. In recent days, multiple Fed officials have made remarks insisting that they are in no hurry to start cutting rates. For the full year, traders have gone from a strong chance of six cuts to a coin-flip between five and six.

Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Raphael Bostic, Christopher Waller, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Chase, JPMorgan, U.S, Fed, European Central Bank, Atlanta Fed, Federal, Market, Traders, Commerce Department Locations: 1H24

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Markets upbeat mood
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-23 | by ( Sumathi Bala | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on October 30, 2023 in New York City. Spencer Platt | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineWall Street really seems to be in an upbeat mood as Monday's trading session broke new ground. Investors saw a bumper day as the Dow hit a new record and surpassed the 38,000 level for first time.

Persons: Spencer Platt, Dow Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Getty, CNBC, Investors, Nasdaq Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ Yardeni worries the Fed could fuel an 'irrational exuberance' bubble with rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The Federal Reserve is risking a dotcom bubble-like market problem unless it lowers Wall Street's expectations for interest rate cuts, widely followed market strategist Ed Yardeni said. Yardeni is worried that aggressive Fed easing "risks fueling irrational exuberance," a term that former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan coined in 1996 for the runup in stock prices ahead of the dotcom bubble bursting. Those developments come a little more than a week ahead of the Fed's next policy meeting Jan. 30-31. "The Fed's last big mistake was falling behind the inflation curve in 2021 and early 2022," Yardeni said. "The Fed's next big mistake could be inflating a speculative stock market bubble.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, Jerome Powell, Alan Greenspan, we've, Powell, Yardeni Organizations: Federal, Yardeni Research, CME

☆ S&P 500 breaks out to new record, but some chart analysts are worried
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The S & P 500 finally surpassed its prior all-time high from January 2022 on Friday, confirming the start of a new bull market that began in October 2022. But while the market continued to build on those gains early Monday, some technical analysts are worried that cracks are beginning to show in the broad market index. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500 in the last 12 months BTIG chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky forecasts a pullback for the S & P 500 before it reaches the key 5,000 level, or just around 3.5% above current prices. Around 73% of the S & P 500 is currently trading above its 50-day moving average, down from more than 90% in late December, according to David Keller, chief market strategist at StockCharts.com. "New index highs lead to fatigue," said Roth Capital Partners chief market technician JC O'Hara.

Persons: Jonathan Krinsky, Krinsky, David Keller, JC O'Hara, O'Hara, There's, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, pullbacks, Ginsberg, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Downside, Capital Partners Locations: Japan, Brazil, India, U.S, China, Europe

☆ Dollar struggles to retain gains even as March rate cut odds recede
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Japan's yen was the notable mover in otherwise quiet trading, as it tiptoed away from Friday's one-month low of 148.80. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly on Friday said she believes the U.S. economy and monetary policy are in a "good place" and it is premature to think rate cuts are imminent. Short-term interest rate futures market show traders are betting interest rate cuts will start in May, with the probability of a March cut dropping below 50%, down from near 80% in the first weeks of January, according to CME Group data. "The USD holds a fair relationship with the evolving implied pricing for a March Fed cut, where rate cut probability falls the USD rallies, and vice versa," he wrote. Much of the gains have come from investor bets on Fed rate cuts.

Persons: dovish, Mary Daly, Chris Weston, Pepperstone Organizations: U.S, of Japan's, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Group, NatWest Markets, European Central Bank, ECB Locations: Japan, Europe, U.S

☆ Stock futures are little changed as Wall Street looks for S&P 500 to build on fresh all-time high: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-21 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Stock futures were little changed on Sunday evening, with investors looking to build on the S&P 500's fresh all-time high from Friday. Futures tied to the benchmark S&P 500 added 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.2%. The S&P 500 broke both its intraday and closing record from January of 2022. -- Correction: A previous version of this story misstated the report date for gross domestic product data. The Commerce Department will release its initial gross domestic product estimate on Thursday.

Persons: Stocks, Friday's Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Tech, Commerce Department Locations: U.S

☆ Stock futures climb as Wall Street looks for S&P 500 to build on fresh all-time high: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-21 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The S&P 500 broke both its intraday and closing record from January 2022, ending the day at 4,839.81. Stock futures rose Monday, with investors looking to build on the S&P 500's fresh all-time high from Friday. Tech stood out among S&P 500 sectors on Friday, gaining 2.35% on the day and 4% on the week. Correction: A previous version of this story misstated the report date for gross domestic product data. The Commerce Department will release its initial gross domestic product estimate on Thursday.

Persons: Stocks Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Tech, Commerce Department Locations: U.S

☆ Two important events this week could determine the future of Fed rate policy
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-21 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., January 19, 2024. A day later, the Commerce Department will release the December reading on the personal consumption expenditures price index, a favorite Fed inflation gauge. "That's the thing that everybody should be watching to determine what the Fed's rate path will end up being," Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said during an interview Friday on CNBC. On top of that, several of Goolsbee's colleagues, including Governor Christopher Waller, New York Fed President John Williams and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, issued commentary indicating that at the very least they are in no hurry to cut even if the hikes are probably done. watch now"I don't like tying my hands, and we still have weeks of data," Goolsbee said.

Persons: Brendan Mcdermid, Dow Jones, Austan Goolsbee, Christopher Waller, John Williams, Raphael Bostic, Goolsbee Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Reuters Markets, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Chicago Fed, CNBC, Group, Christopher Waller , New York Fed, Atlanta Fed, Labor Department Locations: New York City, U.S, Christopher Waller , New

☆ This record-breaking market just keeps going higher and higher. Here's why
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-19 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Brendan Mcdermid | ReutersThe stock market keeps scaling new heights as investors focus on the good and ignore the bad, no matter how bad the bad parts might look sometimes. Prospects for a slowing economy, geopolitical unrest and turmoil in Washington aren't scaring market participants largely because none of those threats have turned into much in reality. As it has digested the various headwinds and tail winds, the market is pushing toward a record closing high. Along with commentary from multiple Fed officials, the tight labor market has taken some of the steam of out the market's anticipation for rate cuts this year. Where the market a week ago was nearly certain the Fed would start cutting in March and keep going with six more quarter percentage point moves this year, pricing shifted Friday.

Persons: Brendan Mcdermid, Mitchell Goldberg, what's, Goldberg Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Reuters, ClientFirst, Juniper Networks, Nvidia, Devices, Traders, Group Locations: New York City, U.S, Washington, Big Tech

Rising bond yields have thrown cold water on the major averages, but a few winners may emerge even if rates remain elevated. These developments have spurred worries that the Fed policymakers could keep rates higher for longer. Bond prices and yields are inversely related, which means that as yields rise, bond prices will fall. Generally, insurers benefit when interest rates rise , since their investment portfolios will generate more yield. Shares of both real estate investment trusts, which specialize in communications services, could take a hit as higher rates make their dividends less attractive.

Persons: W.R ., Humana, Jefferies, Centene, Sherwin, Williams, Baird Organizations: Federal Reserve, CNBC Pro, Treasury Bond ETF, CME Group, Molina Healthcare, W.R, Florida Medicaid, American Tower Corporation, SBA Communications Locations: Molina, UnitedHealth, Florida

☆ Fed's Raphael Bostic expects rate cuts to happen in the third quarter
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-18 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic expects policymakers to start cutting rates in the third quarter of this year, saying Thursday that inflation is well on its way back to the central bank's goal. While the remarks help illuminate a timeline for rate cuts, they also serve as a reminder that Fed officials and market participants have different expectations about policy easing. The implied probability for a quarter percentage point reduction has decreased in recent days but still stood around 57% on Thursday morning. Pricing further indicates a total of six cuts this year, or one at every FOMC meeting but one from March forward. "In such an unpredictable environment, it would be unwise to lock in an emphatic approach to monetary policy," Bostic said.

Persons: Raphael Bostic, Bostic, he's Organizations: Atlanta Federal Reserve, Market, Commerce, Labor Department, CNBC PRO Locations: Atlanta, Washington

TOKYO (AP) — Asian shares traded mixed Thursday as pessimism spread among investors about any imminent interest rate cut in the United States. Wall Street slipped following another signal that it may have gotten too optimistic about when the Federal Reserve will deliver the cuts to interest rates. Yields climbed after a report showed sales at U.S. retailers were stronger in December than economists expected. Higher yields can crimp profits for companies, while also making investors less willing to pay high prices for stocks. Higher yields hurt all kinds of investments, and high-growth stocks tend to be some of the hardest hit.

Persons: Australia's, Korea's Kospi, Seng, Brent, Stan Choe, Yuri Kageyama Organizations: TOKYO, Nikkei, Shanghai, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, U.S, Treasury, Amazon, Fed, Traders, CME Group, European Central Bank, U.S . Bancorp, Sporting Goods, Spirit Airlines, JetBlue Airways, JetBlue, U.S ., AP Locations: United States, Hong, U.S, New York

☆ Stock futures are little changed on Tuesday evening: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, on Tuesday, Jan. 3, 2023. Stock futures were flat in overnight trading following a losing session to kick off the holiday-shortened trading week. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average hovered near the flatline, along with S&P 500 futures . Interactive Brokers lost nearly 3% in extended trading after posting fourth quarter adjusted earnings that fell short of expectations. The Federal Reserve's beige book and business inventories for November are also slated for Wednesday, along with remarks from New York Federal Reserve Bank President and CEO John Williams.

Persons: Stocks, Christopher Waller, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Jeffrey Buchbinder, Dow Jones, Charles Schwab, John Williams Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Interactive, Federal Reserve, Dow, Bank of America, LPL, U.S . Bancorp, New York Federal Reserve Bank Locations: New York, New

☆ UBS raises S&P 500 target for 2024, sees nearly 8% gain from here
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The S & P 500 is in for yet another strong year, according to UBS. The firm lifted its year-end target on the S & P 500 from 4,850 to 5,150, representing 7.7% upside for the benchmark stock index from Friday's close. The S & P 500 ended last week at 4,783.83. This year's more dovish Federal Reserve policy supports higher valuations, Golub said, upping his 2024 earnings-per-share estimate on the S & P 500 by $10 to $235. "While the S & P 500 advanced throughout 2023, leadership has become more pro-cyclical over the past 3 months, an indication of investor optimism toward the economy," Golub said.

Persons: Jonathan Golub, Golub, upping Organizations: UBS, Federal, Technology

☆ Fed's Christopher Waller advocates moving 'carefully' with rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller acknowledged Tuesday that interest rate cuts are likely this year, but said the central bank can take its time relaxing monetary policy. "When the time is right to begin lowering rates, I believe it can and should be lowered methodically and carefully," he added. "In many previous cycles ... the FOMC cut rates reactively and did so quickly and often by large amounts. I see no reason to move as quickly or cut as rapidly as in the past." In fact, traders had further ramped up expectations for 2024 to seven cuts, but brought it back to six following Waller's remarks.

Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller Organizations: Federal, Washington , D.C, Brookings Institution Locations: Washington ,

☆ Inflation is still a mixed bag, but markets don't care. They see big Fed rate cuts ahead
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

December's inflation data provided just enough evidence to show that the pace of price increases is continuing to cool while also serving up a reminder that the war isn't won yet. One is that regardless of the headline numbers, the parts of inflation that don't fluctuate as much have been fairly stubborn. So-called sticky inflation, which includes things such as housing costs, auto insurance, medical care services and household furnishings, are indeed holding higher. On a one-month annualized basis, the measure also was at 4.6%, but that's up a full percentage point from the previous month. Fed policymakers also are attuned to the relationship between wages and inflation.

Persons: isn't, Disinflation, Jamie Dimon, cautioning, Krishna Guha, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Ian Shepherdson, Dan North Organizations: Separate Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Nomura Global Economics, JPMorgan Chase, Evercore ISI, PPI, Citigroup, Commerce, Fed, Pantheon, Atlanta, Allianz Trade Locations: Red

☆ Dollar pares gains on soft U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar index pared gains on Friday after U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in December, raising expectations of an early U.S. rate cut. That led traders to add to bets for a rate cut in the coming months. Fed funds futures now imply a 79% chance of a March rate cut, up from 73% on Thursday, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Traders maintained their view that a March rate cut is likely even after consumer price inflation data on Thursday came in above economists' expectations. The dollar index was last up 0.19% at 102.40.

Persons: Steve Englander, Englander, Martin Luther King Jr, Sterling, bitcoin Organizations: U.S, British, Global, Research, Standard Chartered Bank, Branch, Traders, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Wednesday Locations: Yichang, Hubei province, U.S, Yemen, America, Zealand, Iran, Red, Gaza

☆ Wholesale prices unexpectedly fall 0.1% in December in positive inflation sign
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-12 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Wholesale prices unexpectedly declined in December, providing a positive signal for inflation, the Labor Department reported Friday. Excluding food, energy and trade services, PPI also was up 0.2%, in line with the estimate. For the full year, the final demand measure less food, energy and trade services rose 2.5% for all of 2023 after being up 4.7% in 2022. Markets initially reacted positively to the PPI release but turned lower through morning trading. PPI measures the prices that producers pay for goods and services, while CPI gauges what consumers pay in the marketplace.

Persons: Dow Jones, Kurt Rankin, Jamie Dimon Organizations: Labor Department, PPI, PNC, Diesel, Traders, Federal, Market, JPMorgan Locations: U.S

☆ Consumer prices rose 0.3% in December, higher than expected, pushing the annual rate to 3.4%
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-11 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The consumer price index increased 0.3% for the month, higher than the 0.2% estimate at a time when most economists and policymakers see inflationary pressures easing. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the so-called core CPI also rose 0.3% for the month and 3.9% from a year ago, compared with respective estimates of 0.3% and 3.8%. On annual basis, shelter costs increased 6.2%, or about two-thirds of the rise in inflation. Food prices increased 0.2% in December, the same as in November. "Certainly, as long as shelter inflation remains stubbornly elevated, the Fed will keep pushing back at the idea of imminent rate cuts."

Persons: Dow Jones, Seema Shah Organizations: Labor Department, Energy, of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Fed, Asset Management Locations: U.S

European markets dipped for a second straight session on Wednesday, as last year's rally continues to stutter. The Stoxx 600 index provisionally closed 0.17% lower, with sectors trading in mixed territory. Mining stocks remained one of the week's worst performers, down 1.07%, while media stocks rose 0.75%. Asia-Pacific markets mostly turned lower overnight, although Japan stocks extended gains after notching a 33-year high in the previous session. In recent weeks, traders have boosted their bets on a Federal Reserve pivot, bracing for rate cuts as soon as March.

Organizations: Federal Reserve, Group Locations: Asia, Pacific, Japan, U.S

☆ Thursday's inflation report could challenge the market outlook for big Fed rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-10 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

"The market seems to have gotten excited that the Fed's going to have to do more than what the Fed thinks in terms of rate cuts now. watch nowThere is certainly a wide gap between what the Fed has indicated in terms of rate cuts and what the market is expecting. It probably means that right now, the market needs to give back some of the rate cuts that they priced in." Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said this week that while she expects rate hikes could be done, she doesn't see the case yet for cuts. Still, Brusuelas thinks the market is too aggressive in pricing in six rate cuts.

Persons: Frederic J, Brown, Dow Jones, Jack McIntyre, McIntyre, they've, Michelle Bowman, Lorie Logan, Logan, Joseph Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Richard Clarida, … There's, Clarida Organizations: AFP, Getty, Federal, Brandywine Global Investment Management, Traders, Dallas, RSM Locations: Rosemead , California

☆ Dollar gains before inflation data, bitcoin slips
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar rose against the euro and yen on Tuesday as traders awaited inflation data on Thursday for clues on when the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates. But Fed expectations are likely to continue to drive dollar moves. The release on Thursday of the consumer price inflation report for December will be the main piece of economic data this week. If the data confirms that inflation is continuing to moderate it could boost expectations for a March rate cut, though if it comes in above expectations it could also reverse some of that pricing. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, was last up 0.33% at 102.55.

Persons: Bipan Rai, Kamal Sharma, steepening, Sharma Organizations: Federal Reserve, Securities and Exchange, CIBC Capital Markets, Bank of America, Fed, U.S, Bank of Japan, Investment Locations: North American, Toronto, U.S, Asia, Bitcoin

☆ Dollar falls as traders focus on data for Fed policy clues
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The greenback initially bounced on Friday after data showed that U.S. employers hired 216,000 workers in December, above economists' expectations in a Reuters poll, while average hourly earnings rose 0.4%, which was also above expectations. The U.S. currency then dropped, however, as investors focused on some underlying factors in the jobs report that showed less strength. It declined further after a separate report showed the U.S. services sector slowed considerably in December, with a measure of employment dropping to the lowest level in nearly 3-1/2 years. The release on Thursday of the consumer price inflation report for December will be the main piece of economic data this week. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in rate cuts beginning in March, though the odds of a move that soon have fallen.

Persons: Helen, Raphael Bostic Organizations: Federal Reserve, greenback, Monex USA, New York Fed, Traders, Atlanta Fed Locations: U.S, Washington

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