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Why are global bond yields rising? With inflation excluding food and energy prices elevated and the U.S. economy resilient, central banks are pushing back against rate cut bets. Many investors were also betting bond yields would drop, so are extra sensitive to moves in the opposite direction, analysts say. That is no surprise, and analysts do not rule out a rise in 10-year Treasury yields to 5%, from 4.7% now . Bond yields determine governments' funding costs, so the longer they stay high, the more they feed into the interest costs countries pay.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, August's, Goldman Sachs, Mahmood Pradhan, Treasuries, Andrea Kiguel, Yoruk, Dhara Ranasinghe, Karin Strohecker, Marc Jones, Amanda Cooper, Ed Osmond Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S . Treasury, August's Fitch, Reuters, Treasury, Deutsche Bank, Amundi Investment, U.S, JPMorgan, Barclays, Yoruk Bahceli, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Germany, Japan, Italy, Europe, Americas, Amsterdam, London

☆ How high could interest rates go? Where analysts see the 10-year yield headed next
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has hit its highest level in 16 years, but a host of economists and money managers and investors expect it can go still further. If the 10-year yield broke out convincingly above 5.25%, Ginsberg said it could next move above 7% — although he'd be "shocked" to see yields that high. He assumes that even a 10-year yield above 5% will cause something to go wrong in one corner of the market or the economy. "It's gonna be a challenging environment for investors, for stock investors," Ginsberg said. However, he expects the 10-year yield could stabilize around 4.5% and 5%.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, We're, Russell, Katie Stockton, Stockton, Wolfe Research's Ginsberg, Ray Dalio, Yardeni Organizations: Treasury, Yardeni, Research, Apple, Nvidia, U.S ., Bridgewater Associates Locations: Stockton

☆ Euro zone factory activity stuck in steep downturn in Sept - PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A steel worker of ThyssenKrupp walks in front of a blast furnace at a ThyssenKrupp steel factory in Duisburg, western Germany, November 14, 2022. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Euro zone manufacturing activity remained mired in a deep and broad-based downturn last month, according to a survey which showed on Monday that demand kept shrinking at a pace rarely surpassed since the data was first collected in 1997. HCOB's final euro zone manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, dipped to 43.4 in September from August's 43.5, matching a preliminary estimate. An index measuring output, which feeds into a composite PMI due on Wednesday and seen as a good gauge of economic health, fell to 43.1 from 43.4. The new orders index did rise last month, to 39.2 from August's 39.0, but it remained firmly below the breakeven mark.

Persons: Wolfgang Rattay, Cyrus de la Rubia, Jonathan Cable, Hugh Lawson Organizations: REUTERS, P, PMI, Hamburg Commercial Bank, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Duisburg, Germany, August's, Hamburg, France, Spain, Italy

☆ Morning Bid: Markets strap in for PMI data dump
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A round of purchasing managers index (PMI) data from across the globe continues with Europe on Monday, following Chinese PMI data over the weekend that pointed to mixed levels of services and manufacturing activity last month. Markets have been feeling the pain after stocks, bonds and non-dollar currencies around the world mostly fell in the previous month, as investors adjusted to the idea that U.S. interest rates will stay elevated for longer. Meanwhile, the euro zone has been grappling with recession jitters amid a slew of other indicators, putting a damper on last week's good news that inflation in the area fell to its lowest in two years. Monday's final manufacturing PMI data from the EU will be closely watched after the preliminary report last month painted a mixed picture of the region's economic health; the index showed a rise in September from August's 33-month low, yet still lingered below the mark separating expansion from contraction. Meanwhile, oil prices are up again on Monday, reversing some of Friday's losses.

Persons: Brigid Riley, Luis de Guindos, Michael Barr, John Williams, Patrick Harker, Loretta Mester, Muralikumar Organizations: PMI, August's, Federal, Reuters, ECB, NY, Philly Fed, Cleveland Fed, Thomson Locations: Europe, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, Sweden, Cleveland

☆ UK factory activity slows sharply in September - PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Oct 2 (Reuters) - British manufacturing activity slowed sharply in September, though less steeply than the month before when it shrank at the fastest rate in more than three years, a survey showed on Monday. Output, new orders and employment were all cut back further, amid weaker intakes of new work from both domestic and overseas clients," S&P Global said. The most recent official data showed British manufacturing output fell 0.8% in July although volumes were 3.0% higher than a year earlier. S&P said 55% of manufacturers expected growth over the next 12 months, fewer than in August, while 9% expected a contraction. "Optimism was linked to a hoped-for market recovery, planned growth initiatives and a more stable inflationary environment," S&P said.

Persons: David Milliken, Hugh Lawson Organizations: P, P Global, Manufacturers, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Europe, United States, China, Brazil

The world's top importing region saw arrivals of 24.95 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, down from August's 25.22 million bpd, according to data complied by LSEG. September's imports were also almost 3 million bpd weaker than the 27.92 million bpd seen in July, which was the highest monthly total so far in 2023. China imported 11.53 million bpd in September, down from August's 12.49 million bpd, according to LSEG data. Russia was China's top supplier in September, providing 1.81 million bpd, eclipsing the 1.44 million bpd from Saudi Arabia. The main question for Asia's oil demand in the fourth quarter is just how hard the recent price rally will bite demand.

Persons: Vietnam's, China doesn't, Asia's, Jamie Freed Organizations: LSEG, Imports, Reliance Industries, SK Energy's Ulsan, Taiwan's CPC, Brent, U.S, world's, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, August's, Jamnagar, India, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Asia, CHINA, China, Russia, Iran

An employee works on the production line at Jingjin filter press factory in Dezhou, Shandong province, China August 25, 2022. China's non-manufacturing PMI, which incorporates sub-indexes for service sector activity and construction, also rose, coming in at 51.7 versus August's 51.0. PROPERTY RISKSMore stable economic indicators will be welcomed by policymakers as they continue to grapple with a property sector debt crisis that has rattled global markets. Analysts say more policy support will be needed to ensure China's economy can hit the government's growth target of about 5% this year. "China's economy stabilised partly driven by the loosening of property sector policies," said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist of Pinpoint Asset Management.

Persons: Siyi Liu, Zhou Hao, Zhiwei Zhang, Ryan Woo, Tina Qiao, Joe Cash, Michael Perry, William Mallard Organizations: REUTERS, National Bureau of Statistics, PMI, Guotai, China Evergrande, HK, Asian Development Bank, Analysts, Thomson Locations: Dezhou, Shandong province, China, BEIJING

BEIJING (AP) — China's factory activity in September recorded its first expansion in six months, an official survey said Saturday, providing another sign that the world's second-largest economy is gradually improving following its post-pandemic malaise. The composite index rose to 52 from 51.3. Zhao said the improvement indicated by the latest indexes suggest the level of economic activity is rebounding. However, China's economic rebound remained uneven. China's economy grew at a 6.3% annual pace in the second quarter of this year, much slower than the 7%-plus growth that analysts had forecast based on the anemic pace of activity the year before.

Persons: —, Zhao Qinghe, Zhao, Hui Ka Yan Organizations: BEIJING, National Bureau of Statistics, China Federation of Logistics, Purchasing, China Evergrande, Investment Locations: China, Hong Kong

☆ The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator rose less than expected in August
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed’s favorite inflation indicator rose less than expected in AugustCNBC's Rick Santelli and Steve Liesman join 'Squawk Box' to break down August's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index.

Persons: Rick Santelli, Steve Liesman

☆ UK business confidence slips in September: Lloyds Bank
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Companies Lloyds Banking Group PLC FollowLONDON, Sept 29 (Reuters) - British business confidence declined in September as optimism about the economic outlook faded, a survey showed on Friday, adding to signs of a slowdown in the economy. The Lloyds Bank Business Barometer, which surveys around 1,200 companies across the economy, fell to 36% from August's 18-month high of 41%. Hann-Ju Ho, senior economist at Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said the BoE's decision - taken after the survey was conducted - could underpin business confidence in the coming months. While Lloyds said its gauge of pricing expectations inched higher in September, hiring intentions cooled. The proportion of companies planning to raise salaries also fell, although remained around the average for the year.

Persons: Hann, Ju Ho, Andy Bruce Organizations: Lloyds Banking Group, Lloyds Bank, P Global PMI, Lloyds, Bank of England, Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, National Statistics, Thomson

The 10-year Treasury yield was trading over 5 basis points lower at 4.501%. It had risen as high as 4.566% on Tuesday, its highest level since 2007. The 2-year Treasury yield was last down by more than 2 basis points to 5.052%. U.S. Treasury yields fell on Wednesday, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury coming down from the fresh 15-year high it hit on Tuesday. August's durable goods order figures are expected Wednesday, with economist surveyed by Dow Jones expecting a 0.5% decline.

Persons: Dow Jones, Wells Fargo, Biden Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Investors, Conference, Federal Reserve

Bullrich, a conservative former lawmaker and security minister, is running against center-left candidate Sergio Massa and Javier Milei, a radical libertarian. The advisor claimed that IMF officials would likely support Bullrich's approach. They told us, 'If you win and put this program on the table and it begins to advance, we will be giving it the necessary support,'" said Martinez Maino. Former President Mauricio Macri, a member of Bullrich's party, renegotiated a previous IMF loan deal for $44 billion in 2018. Bullrich aims to grow foreign investment, said Martinez Maino, adding that he and the candidate's would-be pick for economy minister, Carlos Melconian, will travel this week to New York to meet with banks and investors.

Persons: Patricia Bullrich, Facundo Martinez Maino, Sergio Massa, Javier Milei, Milei, Martinez Maino, Mauricio Macri, Bullrich, Carlos Melconian, Lucila Sigal, David Alire Garcia Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: BUENOS AIRES, August's, South, New York

☆ How the UAW strikes could rekindle inflation just as its trending lower
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The ongoing United Auto Workers strike could present a risk to the fight against inflation, according to Barclays. According to Sriram, this could consequently put upward pressure on auto prices, which have played an outsize role in persistent inflation pressures. "We think upside risks to core inflation are likely to materialize primarily in used car prices in the event of a sharp inventory drawdown," said Sriram. "Used car prices, which account for 3.5% of core CPI (but only 0.5% of core PCE), tend to be sensitive to new car inventories, more so in this post-pandemic period, with car inventories tight and new car prices substantially elevated." She noted that the strike will not likely affect auto prices through October.

Persons: —, Pooja Sriram, Sriram, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: United Auto Workers, Barclays, — Ford, General Motors Locations: July's

☆ US new home sales tumble in August
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

New home sales plunged 8.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 675,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday. July's sales pace was revised higher to 739,000 units from the previously reported 714,000 units. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new home sales, which account for a small share of U.S. home sales, falling to a rate of 700,000 units. New home sales are counted at the signing of a contract, making them a leading indicator of the housing market. At August's sales pace it would take 7.8 months to clear the supply of houses on the market, up from 7.0 months in July.

Persons: Octavio Jones, Freddie Mac, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Commerce Department, Reuters, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Data, National Association of Home Builders, Thomson Locations: Tampa , Florida, U.S, Wells Fargo, West, Midwest, Northeast

☆ Stock futures are little changed after Tuesday's sharp losses: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose by 34 points, or 0.1%. Futures linked to the S&P 500 inched up 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.1%. Economists' estimates called for 695,000, per Dow Jones. Economists polled by Dow Jones had forecasted 105.5. Economists expect they declined 0.5%, according to Dow Jones.

Persons: Dow, Dow Jones, Rob Haworth, Blanke, Robert Schein, Schein Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Costco, Homes, Census Bureau, Department of Housing, Urban Development, Conference, Bank Asset Management, Micron Technology Locations: U.S

☆ Dow drops 388 points as US stocks suffer worst loss since March on weak economic data
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks tumbled on Tuesday as weak economic data sparked the worst loss since March. Investors are also contending with a possible interest rate hike and a government shutdown. AdvertisementAdvertisementUS stocks plummeted on Tuesday as weak economic data sparked fears of a recession, adding to worries about rates and a government shutdown. "So far, higher interest rates haven't made a dent in housing prices this year. AdvertisementAdvertisementBefore this, investors were already grappling with uncertainty, as the Federal Reserve indicated that another interest rate could come up before the year end.

Persons: —, haven't, Jamie Cox Organizations: Service, Harris Financial, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones

☆ The US dollar and Argentine peso could exist side by side, says rival to presidential frontrunner Milei
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Argentine presidential candidate Patricia Bullrich wants both the dollar and peso to be official currencies. This represents a different take versus full dollarization, a policy advocated by frontrunner Javier Milei. "The peso and the dollar will coexist," Carlos Melconian, her chief economic advisor, said at the Bloomberg Economic Summit in Buenos Aires. "There will be a complementary exchange rate regime that will be step by step, and will take inflation into account." "There is going to be very severe and prudent macroeconomic policy in Argentina," Melconian said, according to Bloomberg.

Persons: Patricia Bullrich, Javier Milei, Bullrich, —, Milei, Carlos Melconian, Melconian Organizations: Argentine, Service, US greenback, Bloomberg Economic Summit, Bloomberg Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina

☆ Slump in UK retail sales eases in September, CBI says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The CBI's September monthly retail sales survey - conducted between Aug. 25 and Sept. 13 - showed the headline balance rebound to a three-month high of -14 from August's more than two year low of -44. "There are some elements of optimism in our survey with retailers expecting the recent fall in sales to continue to ease," CBI Principal Economist Martin Sartorius said. Retailers' expected sales balance for October rose to a three-month high of -8. Britain's most recent official retail sales data showed a 0.8% month-on-month growth in sales volumes in August after a sharp 1.1% drop in July, when unusually wet weather upset normal summer spending patterns. The chief executive of supermarket Aldi UK said on Monday that cost of living concerns continued to influence food shopping habits.

Persons: Peter Nicholls, Martin Sartorius, David Milliken, Kylie MacLellan Organizations: REUTERS, of British Industry, CBI, Bank of, Aldi, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, Bank of England

☆ Stock futures are little changed after S&P 500, Nasdaq end four-day string of losses: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures hovered near the flat line Monday evening. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped by 25 points, or 0.07%. S&P 500 futures dropped 0.05%, while Nasdaq 100 futures lost 0.06%. The S&P 500 added 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.45%. Nevertheless, stocks are on pace to end September lower, a month that is already known as being historically weak for equities.

Persons: doesn't, it's, Mary Ann Bartels Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow Locations: Washington

Learn moreToday's free South Africa vs. Ireland live stream is this weekend's hottest match in the Rugby World Cup and should excite even the most casual of rugby fans. If you don't have a proper watch option in your country, we'll show you how to watch the Rugby World Cup live streams for free using a VPN. Where to watch South Africa vs. Ireland Rugby World Cup live streams free from anywhereYou can catch all of the Rugby World Cup action, including South Africa vs. Ireland, using the free ITVX live stream in the United Kingdom, which is offering up every match of this year's Rugby World Cup. How to watch South Africa vs. Ireland in the USANBC is the exclusive broadcast partner for the Rugby World Cup in the United States. Shop at SlingRugby World Cup scheduleBelow is a full schedule of upcoming Rugby World Cup games that will run through the October 28 final.

Persons: it's, ExpressVPN, You'll, Peacock Organizations: Rugby, Wales, Ireland, Nations, Samoa, Ireland Rugby, ITV1, ITV3, ITV, Rugby World, USA NBC, CNBC, ., Zealand Locations: South Africa, Ireland, Scottish, Romania, New Zealand, United Kingdom, UK, USA, United States, Georgia, Portugal, ITVX, England, Chile, Tonga, Wales, Australia, Uruguay, Namibia, Japan, Italy, Argentina, Fiji, Scotland, France, . Georgia, Zealand

☆ Euro zone economy likely contracted this quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

LONDON, Sept 22 (Reuters) - The euro zone economy is likely contract this quarter and won't return to growth anytime soon, a survey showed, as the dampening effect of central banks' long campaign of interest rates rises becomes clearer. HCOB's flash euro zone Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global and seen as a good gauge of overall economic health, rose to 47.1 in September from August's 33-month low of 46.7. "The increase in the ECB key interest rate by 450 basis points in the meantime is slowing down the economy in all euro countries." OUT OF ORDERSeptember's fall in overall activity in the euro zone came despite firms barely increasing their charges. The services PMI rose to 48.4 from 47.9 but spent its second month below the breakeven mark this year.

Persons: Christoph Weil, France's, Andrew Bailey, Sarah Meyssonnier, Bert Colijn, Jonathan Cable, Toby Chopra Organizations: P Global, August's, Hamburg Commercial Bank, ECB, PMI, European Union, Bank of England, Carrefour, REUTERS, European Central Bank, ING, Thomson Locations: Hamburg, Germany, Commerzbank, Europe's, Britain, Montesson, Paris, France, Spain

☆ British retail sales grow in August after washout in July
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Phil Noble/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Sept 22 (Reuters) - British retail sales partially recovered in August after a rainy July washout, official figures showed on Friday, adding to signs that the country's consumers were mostly coping with the cost-of-living squeeze. Sales volumes rose by 0.4% on a month-on-month basis after a sharp 1.1% fall in July, the Office for National Statistics said. "These were partially offset by internet sales, which dropped slightly as some people returned to shopping in person following a very wet July. However, August's data represented the sixth time so far in 2023 that sales volumes rose on a month-to-month basis, suggesting resilience in consumer demand. Retail sales volumes were 1.4% lower than a year earlier, the ONS said, compared with economists' forecasts for a 1.2% decline.

Persons: Phil Noble, Heather Bovill, GfK, BoE, William Schomberg, James Davey, William James, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, National Statistics, Reuters, Office, Bank of England, British Foods, Thomson Locations: Altrincham, Britain

☆ US Housing Market: Home Prices Could Jump 5% in Next Year, Zillow Says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Home prices could climb even higher over the next year, Zillow economists said. The real estate listings site revised its 12-month outlook for home prices, predicting a 4.9% increase by August 2024. That's slightly down from its 12-month home price outlook in July, when the firm predicted a 6.5% increase in home prices by July of next year. Experts have warned housing affordability is unlikely to improve until mortgage rates dial back more significantly. That could unlock more inventory to hit the housing market, but it's unlikely to happen anytime soon, with experts forecasting mortgage rates to end the year around 6%.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Bankrate, Zillow, uptick Organizations: Service Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Bank of England halts run of interest rate hikes as economy slows
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A general view of the Bank of England (BoE) building, the BoE confirmed to raise interest rates to 1.75%, in London, Britain, August 4, 2022. A day after a surprise slowing in Britain's fast pace of price growth, the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee voted by a narrow margin of 5-4 to keep Bank Rate at 5.25%. "There are increasing signs of some impact of tighter monetary policy on the labour market and on momentum in the real economy more generally," the MPC said in a statement. The BoE's decision to pause its rate hikes came a day after the U.S. Federal Reserve also opted to keep borrowing costs on hold. Last week, the European Central Bank raised rates but suggested it might be the last for now.

Persons: BoE, Maja Smiejkowska, William Schomberg, Andy Bruce, Suban Abdulla, Jon Cunliffe, Megan Greene, Jonathan Haskel, Catherine Mann, Andrew Bailey, Bailey, BRITAIN BOE Organizations: Bank of England, REUTERS, MPC, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: London, Britain

A day after Britain's fast pace of price growth unexpectedly slowed, the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee voted by the narrowest margin of 5-4 to keep Bank Rate at 5.25%. But rate futures suggested they still saw a 50% chance of Bank Rate rising to 5.5% by the end of this year. Britain's economy, hit hard by Brexit, the COVID-19 pandemic and the surge in gas prices triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has been struggling with the highest inflation rate in the Group of Seven. But growth remains fragile, heightening the risk that the BoE's 14 back-to-back rate hikes will push the economy into a recession. Last week, the European Central Bank raised rates but suggested its move might be the last for now.

Persons: Andrew Bailey, Jon Cunliffe, Megan Greene, Jonathan Haskel, Catherine Mann, BoE, Reuters Graphics Sterling, Bailey, Rishi Sunak, Peter Nicholls, Frances Haque, Reuters Graphics Bailey, Yael Selfin, Hugh Gimber, William Schomberg, Catherine Evans Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters Graphics, U.S ., MPC, REUTERS, Santander UK, IF, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, KPMG, Investors, Bank of, Morgan Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, London, Britain

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