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From spodumene ore through lithium carbonate to lithium hydroxide, prices have more than doubled again this year after an explosive rally in 2021. Even Goldman Sachs, which outraged lithium bulls with a bearish market call in May, now thinks global supply will fall 84,000 tonnes short of demand this year. New EVs rolling off the automotive production line are the end of the lithium supply chain, but the chain itself is also expanding fast. All of them need raw materials, so their collective stock-building accentuates the rising EV demand curve. Moreover, much of lithium's supply growth is coming from new sources such as China's lepidolite deposits which come with their own new disruption potential.

Money manager positioning on the CME's copper contract shifted back to a net long at the start of November for the first time since early May. Bulls remain conspicuous by their absence, waiting to see how Doctor Copper prices the confusing combination of Western recession and tentative recovery in China. The bounce has forced an unwind of fund short positions, which have more than halved to 31,177 contracts as of last Tuesday. Bears have retracted their claws on both exchanges but there's been no corresponding surge in bullish exuberance among fund managers. Investment fund and other financial net positioning on LME copperRECOVERY AND RECESSIONFunds' reticence to commit to copper is understandable given the market is trying to price two conflicting trends.

LONDON, Dec 8 (Reuters) - A wave of new copper mine supply is washing through the market, with smelters reaping the benefits in higher treatment and refining charges (TCRCs). Annual benchmark copper smelter treatment and refining chargesNEW MINES, OLD PROBLEMSOnly two major copper mines were brought on stream between 2017 and 2021, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). Moreover, what is not produced for whatever reason in 2022 will be deferred into 2023, when the ICSG expects the world's copper mines to produce 5.3% more metal. While mined production was up by 3.5% in January-September, refined copper production growth lagged at 2.3%, according to the latest ICSG estimates. Glencore says it can raise its copper production by around 60% to 1.6 million tonnes per year through relatively low-cost brownfield expansions.

LONDON, Dec 6 (Reuters) - The world is going to need another 50,000 tonnes of tin per year by 2030 to meet a looming surge in demand, according to the International Tin Association (ITA). The country exported 75,000 tonnes of refined tin last year with shipments running 8% higher through the first 10 months of this year. State producer PT Timah needs around two years to develop its existing tin chemical facility and longer to secure markets, Alwin Albar, chairman of the Association of Indonesian Tin Exporters, told a parliamentary hearing. China imported 22,600 tonnes of refined tin in the first 10 months of the year with Indonesian metal accounting for 19,000 tonnes. After peaking at 5,160 tonnes in September, headline LME tin stocks have fallen to 3,075 tonnes with 535 tonnes awaiting physical load-out.

LONDON, Nov 17 (Reuters) - London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel trading has turned wild again this week. LME and ShFE nickel contracts price and volumeVOLATILITY TRAPThe fund exodus after March has left a liquidity vacuum and a self-reinforcing volatility trap in the nickel market. ("A financially constrained physical market", April 3, 2022)LME nickel trading volumes have fallen steeply since March. Year-to-date nickel volumes are 24% below last year's equivalent period, the scale of decline flattered by strong trading activity in January and February. But until inventory and volumes rebuild, time-spread turbulence and perma-backwardation are becoming the new normal in the Shanghai market.

LONDON, Nov 15 (Reuters) - The London Metal Exchange (LME) has announced it will continue accepting Russian metal as good delivery against its industrial metal contracts, for now at least. Absent formal government sanctions against Russian aluminium, copper and nickel, everything depends on how many players choose not to take Russian metal in their 2023 supply contracts. The LME's discussion paper on the acceptability of Russian metal has revealed just how split the global industry is on the question right now. Two favoured thresholds for Russian metal, an option deemed too complex, and one abstained from making a choice. The company is a major producer of the Class I refined nickel that is deliverable against the LME nickel contract.

The status of Russian metal has been a key talking-point at the many seminars and parties this week in London. Should the LME suspend deliveries of Russian aluminium, copper and nickel or should it maintain its policy of not preempting official sanctions? German copper producer Aurubis (NAFG.DE) has joined U.S. aluminium producer Alcoa (AA.N) in publicly calling for an LME ban on Russian metal. There is a lot of metal supply at stake here. An LME ban on deliveries of Russian metal would clearly have significant ramifications for both LME and physical market pricing.

LONDON, Oct 21 (Reuters) - It's not the first time the 145-year-old London Metal Exchange (LME) has found itself in crisis. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterMarch brought Nickel Crisis II, a much scarier update of the original, and now we have the unfolding Russian Metal Crisis. It's perilous legal territory and would have a significant impact on LME price and physical premiums. Meanwhile, CME's (CME.O) cobalt contract has steadily built up liquidity since its end-2020 launch even as activity in the LME's contract has steadily dwindled. Disgruntled funds have already voted with their feet, the collective departure causing LME trading volumes to slide by 6% over the first nine months of this year.

The jury in Kevin Spacey's sexual abuse trial found that the Oscar-winning actor is not liable for battery against “Star Trek: Discovery star” Anthony Rapp. Rapp alleged that Spacey climbed on top of him at a party in New York City in 1986, when Rapp was 14 and Spacey was 26. “I didn’t ask for him to do that,” he told jurors, referring to Spacey’s alleged sexual advance. Rapp alleged that sometime after that evening, Spacey invited him to a party at his apartment. Rapp testified that he did not recognize anyone at the party, so he went into a bedroom to watch television.

ShFE stocks, bonded warehouse stocks and Yangshan premiumSHANGHAI SQUEEZEThe ShFE copper contract has been characterised by low inventory and rolling tightness for some time. It is probable that troubled trade house Maike Group is also somehow in the Shanghai copper cocktail right now. LONDON'S RUSSIAN DILEMMAChina's strong call on copper is being felt in London, where falling LME stocks have rekindled time-spread volatility. The micro-macro divergence looks set to accentuate as LME stocks are stripped for shipment to China. Over 60% of LME copper stocks at the end of September were Russian metal.

☆ Kevin Spacey denies Anthony Rapp's allegation and testifies about 'terrifying' upbringing as the son of a 'neo-Nazi'
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Https | Media-Cldnry.S-Nbcnews.Com Image Upload Newscms | Daniel Arkin | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +5 min

In a significant development Monday, the judge overseeing the trial tossed out Rapp's claim for intentional infliction of emotional distress. Judge Lewis A. Kaplan said that claim "repeats and re-alleges" Rapp's allegation of battery. The actor testified that he "certainly had a degree of shame" about being gay because he grew up with his father's hateful views. Spacey is expected to rebut Rapp's allegation of sexual misconduct on Monday afternoon following a roughly hour-long lunch break. Rapp testified that Spacey invited him to a party at his apartment.

LONDON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - European copper buyers are going to be paying a lot more to get their metal next year. Aurubis (NAFG.DE) cited a combination of high freight and power costs and low visible copper stocks. European annual copper premiumsSANCTIONS CREEPThere were no official sanctions on Russian copper until earlier this month, when the British government announced an asset freeze on Iskander Makhmudov. ASIAN DISCOUNTWhat will happen to all the Russian copper if Europe stages a collective boycott? The sharp hike in next year's European premiums says much about the cost of refusing Russian metal.

Annual supply contracts are in the process of being negotiated and at least some buyers are "self-sanctioning" by specifying no Russian metal in 2023. LME stocks and percentage of Russian metalCOPPER FLOWSThe proportion of Russian copper in LME stocks was actually higher in the third quarter of 2021, when it reached 95% of live tonnage, LME data shows. With just Nornickel still fully unsanctioned, the amount of potentially deliverable Russian copper is sharply reduced. Moreover, there is an obvious destination for any unsold Russian copper next year. The three options are to do nothing, set thresholds for Russian metal deliveries or suspend all warranting across all locations.

Indonesian nickel production by mine and productPOWERING UPIndonesia's nickel boom reflects both the country's rich mineral resources and the government's drive to push miners down the value-add processing chain. China's imports of nickel by product 2020-2022PRICING DOWNThis Indonesian supply surge was widely expected, but its exact timing was fuzzy given the number of new processing routes being used to convert ore to battery nickel. The combination of European demand shock, Indonesian production burst and the closing of the processing gap between stainless and battery nickel means there "is close to 30% downside for the nickel price into year-end". This mismatch of market-place and market is one of the reasons the LME nickel contract melted down in March. Macquarie Bank now provides three different nickel price forecasts for LME refined metal, Chinese nickel pig iron and Chinese nickel sulphate.

REUTERS/Kham/File PhotoLONDON, Sept 27 (Reuters) - While the rest of the world worries about recession, China is steadily increasing its imports of physical copper. The country's net call on refined copper from the rest of the world was up by 9.8% in the first eight months of the year. China's imports of copper scrapSCRAP AND CONCENTRATES IMPORTS UPThe restocking momentum is also travelling down copper raw materials import channels. GREEN DEMAND DRIVERChina's copper import hunger appears unsated. The sign-posting of more government investment in decarbonisation is a major reason for China's copper buyers to feel confident about restocking physical units at current price levels.

Another key alumina supply channel was shut off by the closure, also in March, of the Nikolaev refinery in Ukraine. CONTINUED METAL FLOWSCertainly, the flow of Russian metal into Western markets has been robust since march. That extreme premium sucked in every spare unit of aluminium, including a lot of surplus Russian metal. A partial boycott will coincide with increased Russian supply as Rusal's domestic market weakens further under the broader economic sanctions package. You can understand why the aluminium market is starting to worry about the prospect of large volumes of unsold Russian metal being dumped into LME warehouses.

LONDON, Sept 21 (Reuters) - London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses saw 11,200 tonnes of copper arrivals on Tuesday, the largest single-day warranting since June. LME inventory remains ultra-low by any historical yardstick, representing just two days' worth of global usage. At their peak of 175,000 tonnes in February last year they dwarfed registered LME copper inventory of 74,000 tonnes. Registered exchange stocks combined with LME shadow and INE bonded stocks represent the total statistically verifiable copper inventory landscape. Global Copper stocks, including LME Shadow and INE bonded...WHAT YOU CAN'T SEEThere is obviously more copper "out there" in the statistical dark.

REUTERS/Alexandre MeneghiniLONDON, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The puzzle facing the zinc market is whether demand or supply will fall hardest this year. LME zinc fund net positioningLOW STOCKSThe outright price is falling despite low exchange inventory. Fastmarkets assessments of Antwerp and Italy premiumsSUPPLY HITEurope is at the epicentre of the global zinc supply hit as smelters struggle to cope with soaring power prices. SHIFTING BALANCEZinc's micro dynamics are shifting fast and at the moment it seems that the demand hit is outpacing the supply hit. It's the demand outlook that's weighing on the outright zinc price.

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