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LONDON — European markets are set to open mixed on Thursday as investors process a raft of central bank action. The Bank of England announces its latest monetary policy decision at midday London time. Market pricing slightly favors a 25 basis point interest rate cut from the U.K. central bank, kicking off its path of monetary easing. Investors are still processing Wednesday's surprise move from the Bank of Japan, which raised its benchmark interest rate to around 0.25%, its highest level since 2008, and hinted at more tightening to come. The decision powered the yen to a four-and-a-half month high against the U.S. dollar, as Japanese stocks tumbled.
Persons: Germany's DAX, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: CAC, Bank of England, U.S, Bank of Japan, U.S . Locations: U.S . Federal,
Market pricing on Wednesday morning suggested a 60% probability of a rate cut at the BOE's Aug. 1 meeting. That is far less conviction than traders had before the European Central Bank enacted its own rate cut at the start of June; while pricing for the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut for the first time in this cycle in September has hit 100%. watch nowIn both May and June, seven MPC members voted to hold, as two voted to cut by 25 basis points. Headline U.K. inflation spiked higher than in the U.S. and euro zone over the last two years, but has also cooled more quickly. "I would rather hold rates until there is more certainty that underlying inflationary pressures have subsided sustainably," Haskel said.
Persons: Mike Kemp, BOE, Jonathan Haskel —, , Haskel Organizations: of England, Bank of England's, European Central Bank, U.S . Federal Reserve, MPC Locations: City of London, U.S, BOE, U.K
CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Nvidia pulled back 7% and Microsoft fell 0.9% during the normal session before reporting earnings after the bell. Still, Microsoft beat estimates as quarterly revenue increased 15% from a year ago to $64.73 billion and net income rose to $22.04 billion. Starbucks missStarbucks' quarterly revenue slid 1% to $9.11 billion, missing forecasts as same-store sales declined for the second straight quarter. The South Korean tech giant said sales of high-end memory chips used in servers will continue to be strong.
Organizations: CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, New York City . Bank of Japan, U.S . Federal, Bank of, Nasdaq, megacaps Meta, Apple, Dow Jones, Nvidia, Microsoft, Fed, Microsoft Microsoft, Bank of Japan, Nikkei, Seng, Samsung, Samsung Electronics, Revenue, South, Reading, Fed Stock, Federal Reserve Locations: New York City, Bank of Japan, U.S, China, Shanghai
It's commonly believed that assets related to real estate, such as REITs, benefit from lower interest rates. A lower interest rate environment also increases the attractiveness of this investment in terms of the higher rental income yield offered by real estate. The rate of office use is set to increase over time , which will in turn lead to a recovery in office real estate demand, he said. "A focus on technology and life sciences market clusters should benefit Kilroy in the long run as we expect buoyant growth in these areas. "The remote work dynamic is probably the biggest source of uncertainty for the office real estate industry.
Persons: Morningstar, Suryansh Sharma, Morningstar's, Dave Sekera, Kilroy, Sharma, Sekera Organizations: U.S . Federal, Kilroy Realty, Morningstar, Apple Locations: REITs, U.S
As the rest of the world fought to keep inflation in check, one country welcomed it with open arms. So while major central banks like the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates to rein in prices, the Bank of Japan kept rates low as inflation accelerated. Businesses could cite their rising costs to justify price increases, leading to higher revenues that went toward higher wages for workers. There have been some promising signs: Big Japanese firms like Toyota have reported large profits and pledged the biggest wage increases for workers in decades. In March, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate for the first time in 17 years, concluding that the economy had achieved the “virtuous cycle” between wages and prices it had envisioned.
Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of, Toyota, Bank of Japan Locations: Japan, Bank of Japan
Interest in emerging markets has been growing and investors are now looking out for sectors and stocks best placed to benefit. "Emerging markets are too important to ignore," says Malcolm Dorson, a senior portfolio manager at the U.S.-headquartered Mirae Asset, which has around $600 billion in assets under management. "Emerging markets have a multi-decade story with significant opportunities. More than 4 billion people live across emerging markets, Dorson noted, adding that each country will have "significant domestic consumption stories [and] long-term opportunities." One of the simplest routes to investing in emerging markets is through exchange-traded funds.
Persons: Malcolm Dorson, Dorson, Javier, Milei Organizations: CNBC Pro, India Active, Global, India, Companies, Infosys, Reliance Industries, Tata Consultancy, U.S . Federal, Brazil Active, Brazil IMI, Argentina IMI, Fitch, IMI Locations: U.S, India, Brazil, Brazilian, FactSet, Argentina, American, Greece, Europe
Job seekers are sour on the cooling labor market
  + stars: | 2024-07-24 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Nitat Termmee | Moment | Getty ImagesWorkers are souring on the state of the job market. Workers had reason for euphoria two to three years ago: The job market was red-hot and, by many metrics, historically strong. However, the labor market has slowed gradually. Workers are now having a harder time finding jobs and the labor market, while still solid, could be in trouble if it continues to cool, economists said. While that rate is "consistent with a strong labor market," its steady rise is the "troubling factor," Nick Bunker, economic research director for North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab, wrote in early July.
Persons: Nitat, Nick Bunker, Bunker Organizations: Getty Images Workers, Workers, U.S . Federal Reserve, North America
An aerial view of Phillips 66 oil refinery is seen in Linden, New Jersey, United States. Oil prices rose in early trade on Monday as investors keep a lookout for signs of a rate-cut cycle expected to begin as soon as September. "Since the June FOMC meeting, inflation and labor market data have signaled that disinflation and labor market rebalancing are in place, which we expect will allow the Fed to begin its interest rate cutting cycle in September," ANZ Research said in a note. Slower-than-expected economic growth of 4.7% for China in the second quarter sparked concerns last week over the country's demand for oil and continues to weigh on prices. The 60-point document's publication follows last week's closed-door meeting of the Communist Party's Central Committee that takes place roughly every five years.
Persons: Phillips, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Republican Donald Trump Organizations: Brent, U.S . West Texas, Fed, ANZ Research, U.S . Federal Reserve, Market, Republican, Communist Party's Central Committee Locations: Linden , New Jersey, United States, U.S, China
Investors are flocking to small-cap stocks right now, driving this segment of the market to new highs this week. He also noted that the Russell 2000 is outperforming the S & P 500 by the widest margin since November 2021. But according to him, one group of small-cap stocks could do well if rates were to stay higher for longer: regional banks. However, Turnquist cautioned that small-cap growth stocks would find the outlook tougher than small-cap value stocks, as they are more sensitive to economic health. How to play small-caps Investors who have been making a play for small-caps include billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller , who revealed a big bullish position in small-cap stocks last quarter.
Persons: Russell, Adam Turnquist, Turnquist, we've, There's, Trump, Kelvin Wong, Donald Trump, Wong, Stanley Druckenmiller, FactSet, David Dietze, Dietze, Jay Hatfield, Kilroy, Jefferies, Hatfield, , Yun Li Organizations: CNBC, LPL, U.S . Federal, Federal Reserve, Citi, Wealth Management, CNBC Pro, Corp, Jefferies Locations: U.S, America
Gold eases after hitting fresh record
  + stars: | 2024-07-17 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | In Ying-Shan-Lee | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
One kilogram gold bullion at the YLG Bullion International Co. headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand, on Friday, Dec. 22, 2023. Gold prices extended their rise to a fresh all-time high on Wednesday, as growing optimism for an interest-rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve in September and a weaker dollar boosted demand. Spot gold eased about 0.2% to $2,462.85 per ounce, driven by profit-taking, after the bullion hit a high of $2,482.29 earlier in the session. Markets now see a 98% chance of a U.S. rate cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and weigh on the dollar, making gold cheaper for investors holding other currencies.
Persons: David Meger, Christopher Waller Organizations: Co, U.S . Federal Reserve, High, Fed Locations: Bangkok, Thailand, U.S
So when worldwide events like the Covid-19 pandemic push inflation well above that 2% target, it can be a real shock to consumers. There are a handful of retail categories, dominated by consumer electronics, that buck the trend and are actually cheaper now than they were before the pandemic, based on a CNBC review of CPI categories in June 2024 compared with June 2019. Same price, better valueEven when annual inflation was at its peak, prices for consumer electronics consistently showed signs of deflation. Such hedonic adjustments — the term BLS uses to describe it's adjustments for changes in item quality — span the whole consumer price index and include categories from men's underwear to home computers to refrigerators. Why televisions continue to be cheapBut hedonic adjustments can't account for everything when the CPI is registering drops in prices.
Persons: it's, Andrew Csicsila, That's, Csicsila Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNBC, CPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: Americas
The small-cap benchmark Russell 2000 jumped 2% on Tuesday, heading for its fifth straight winning day. Small-cap companies are especially sensitive to rate policy, as their financing costs rise when interest rates are high. Falling rates could be a boon for these names, said Kostin, Goldman's chief equity strategist, on CNBC's " Squawk on the Street ." In that period, the Russell 2000 Index has added more than 11%, compared with the S & P 500 's 4% advance. In 2024, the S & P 500 has surged more than 18%, while the Russell 2000 has added 10%.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Jerome Powell, Russell Organizations: Russell, Federal
Oil prices tick down on worries about Chinese demand
  + stars: | 2024-07-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday on worries about a slowing Chinese economy crimping demand, though a growing consensus that the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin cutting its key interest rate as soon as September limited declines. Brent futures fell 9 cents, or 0.1%, to $84.76 a barrel by 12:21 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 13 cents, or 0.2%, to $81.78. China's economy grew much slower than expected in the second quarter, hamstrung by a protracted property downturn and job insecurity. Lower interest rates decrease the cost of borrowing, which can boost economic activity and oil demand. While crisis in the Middle East has not impacted supply, attacks on ships in the Red Sea has forced vessels to take longer routes, meaning oil remains on the water for longer.
Persons: Brent, Jerome Powell, Alexander Novak Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, U.S, West Texas, Organization of, Petroleum Locations: Yemen, Gaza, Russian, OPEC
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at a news conference on interest rates, the economy and monetary policy actions on June 15, 2022. LONDON — European stocks are expected to open in mixed territory Tuesday as investors assess the economic and political outlook in the region and beyond. The U.K.'s FTSE index is seen opening 15 points lower at 8,164, Germany's DAX down 19 points at 18,580, France's CAC 40 up 7 points at 7,633 and Italy's FTSE MIB down 31 points at 34,493, according to data from IG. Global markets are digesting dovish comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in which he said the central bank will not wait until inflation hits 2% to cut interest rates, as the Fed's policy works with "long and variable lags." So, "if you wait until inflation gets all the way down to 2%, you've probably waited too long," he said Monday.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Germany's DAX, you've Organizations: Federal, LONDON, CAC, IG, Global, U.S . Federal Locations: U.S
In the meantime, you can stay up to date on the latest business news with CNN’s Business Nightcap newsletter. Access to credit is especially crucial for small, private businesses that aren’t able raise money through financial markets. “There were a number of programs out there to support small businesses during the depths of the pandemic, and there were relatively fewer filings than usual in 2021 and 2022.”Rising corporate bankruptcies could just reflect a lot of churn occurring in Corporate America, Jamner said. Don’t panicMost banks offer free checking if, for instance, customers have their paycheck direct deposited or they maintain an average minimum balance, reports my colleague Jeanne Sahadi. Marianne Lake, the head of Chase Bank, told the Wall Street Journal last week that Chase might stop offering free checking and other free banking services.
Persons: It’s, ” “, Matt Rowe, Josh Jamner, Jamner, we’re, Reena Aggarwal, , , Banks, Jeanne Sahadi, Marianne Lake, Chase, Jaret, Read, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell, Mary Daly, Morgan Stanley, Charles Schwab, Adriana Kugler, Johnson, Kinder Morgan, Tom Barkin, Lorie Logan, Michelle Bowman, John Williams, Raphael Bostic Organizations: CNN’s Business, Washington CNN —, P Global Market Intelligence, CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas, Nomura Capital Management, Consumer, Institute for Supply, P, ClearBridge Investments, , Corporate America, Federal, Fed, Georgetown University Psaros Center, Financial Markets, Chase Bank, Wall, TD Securities, BlackRock, San Francisco Fed, Bank of America, PNC, State, US Commerce Department, US Labor Department, National Association of Home Builders, Johnson, US Bancorp, Discover, Vegas Sands, Northern Trust, Citizens, United Airlines, National Statistics, Federal Reserve, Richmond Fed, Netflix, Novartis, Abbott Laboratories, Marsh, Blackstone, Infosys, Cintas, T Bank, Nokia, American Airlines, European Central Bank, American Express, Fifth Third Bancorp, AutoNation Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Corporate, UnitedHealth, Wells Fargo, Vegas, Equifax, Northern, McLennan, Schlumberger, Haliburton
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSeptember most likely date for a Fed cut but things can change, economist saysCarl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, comments on the probability of a September interest rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Persons: Carl Weinberg Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed 'likely to tee the markets up' for September rate cut, Invesco saysBen Gutteridge, director of model portfolio services at Invesco, says the U.S. Federal Reserve may add another interest rate cut this year.
Persons: Invesco, Ben Gutteridge Organizations: Fed, U.S . Federal Locations: Invesco
The UK economy has reportedly seen faster growth than initially estimated in early 2024. LONDON — European stocks are expected to open higher Thursday as global markets look ahead to the next U.S. inflation reading. Thursday's inflation report could cement expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the coming months. Recent economic releases have suggested that inflation and economic growth are both cooling, including last week's report that unemployment in June ticked up to 4.1%. The consumer price index report for June will be released at 8:30 a.m.
Persons: Germany's DAX Organizations: City of, LONDON, CAC, IG, U.S . Federal Locations: Bishopsgate, City, City of London
They also generally like to examine "core" inflation readings. The monthly core CPI reading was 0.1% in June, the smallest increase in about three years, since August 2021. Shelter inflation has moderated much slower than expected, one of the big reasons inflation hasn't yet fallen back to target, economists said. There were encouraging signals in the latest CPI report: Monthly shelter inflation dropped to 0.2% after being stuck at 0.4% for four consecutive months. Services inflation is the trouble spotInflation for physical goods spiked as the U.S. economy reopened in 2021.
Persons: David Paul Morris, Mark Zandi, Zandi, Sarah House, Aubrey George, George, Joe Seydl, Olivia Cross Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, U.S . Labor Department, Moody's, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, U.S . Federal Reserve, CPI, Housing, of Labor Statistics, Morgan Private Bank, Capital Economics, BLS Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, North America
The Federal Reserve, which acts independently from the Oval Office, was slow to act to contain hot inflation, for example. That Biden is seen as stoking high inflation is due somewhat to optics: he took office in early 2021, around the time inflation spiked notably, economists said. "In my view, neither Trump nor Biden is to blame for the high inflation," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. At a high level, hot inflation is largely an issue of mismatched supply and demand. For example, Trump imposed tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and several goods from China, which Biden largely kept intact.
Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Justin Sullivan, Trump, Biden, David Wessel, Mark Zandi, Wu Shaoyang, Wessel, Zandi, Stephen Brown, Eric Baradat, , Michael Strain, Strain, Jerome Powell, Olivier Douliery Organizations: CNN, Getty, Federal Reserve, Biden, Trump, Hutchins, Brookings Institution, Moody's, Qingdao Port, International Monetary Fund, North, Capital Economics, American, Afp, American Enterprise Institute, Federal, . Federal Locations: Atlanta, U.S, Ukraine, Qingdao, Shandong Province, China, North America, Washington, It's
Liverpool Street train station beneath the new skyline of skyscrapers in the City of London financial district on 14th February 2022 in London, United Kingdom. LONDON — European stocks are expected to open higher Wednesday as concerns over the political outlook in France subside. France's CAC 40 index closed 1.81% lower Tuesday as traders assessed the implications of a hung parliament and a period of political uncertainty in France. Asia-Pacific markets were mixed overnight, even as key Wall Street benchmarks rose following dovish comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Tuesday. U.S. stock futures were little changed in overnight trading Tuesday after the S&P 500 notched a fresh record close.
Persons: Germany's DAX, Emmanuel Macron, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Liverpool, LONDON, CAC, IG, Front, NFP, U.S . Federal, National Grid Locations: City, London, United Kingdom, France, Asia, Pacific, U.S, Wetherspoons
Oil prices rebounded on Wednesday following three days of declines after an industry report showed U.S. crude and fuel stockpiles fell last week, indicating steady demand, and the outlook for interest rate cuts improved. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 26 cents to $81.67 a barrel, after falling 1.1% in the previous session. Following Powell's comments investors continued to put a nearly 70% probability on a Fed rate cut in September. The outlook for higher oil prices was also supported by a U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report on Tuesday showing global oil demand will outpace supply next year, reversing a prior forecast for a surplus. In Texas, oil and gas companies restarted some operations on Tuesday after Hurricane Beryl lashed the state, while some facilities sustained damage and power had not been fully restored.
Persons: WTI, Hurricane Beryl, Brent, Jerome Powell, Beryl Organizations: Brent, . West Texas, American Petroleum Institute, U.S . Federal, ANZ, U.S . Energy Information Administration Locations: Maricopa, Kern County , California, Texas, Hurricane, U.S
Asia-Pacific markets started Wednesday lower, even as key Wall Street benchmarks rose following dovish comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell overnight. Powell signaled caution over leaving interest rates at too high a level, saying that "reducing policy restraint too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment." Over in Asia, investors will assess inflation data from China and Japan, with China releasing its consumer and producer prices data for June. Japan's corporate goods price index rose to 2.9% in June from a year earlier, in line with expectations and climbing at a faster pace compared to a revised 2.6% in May. The CGPI measures the price changes of goods traded within the corporate sector.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: U.S . Federal, PPI Locations: Asia, Pacific, U.S, China, Japan
SeongJoon Cho/Bloomberg via Getty ImagesThe U.S. Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates before year's end. How interest rates impact the U.S. dollarIn reality, the dynamics driving dollar fluctuations are more complex than whether the Fed raises or lowers interest rates. The European Central Bank cut interest rates in June, for example. This is happening against the backdrop of a relatively strong U.S. economy, which also generally supports a strong dollar, Petersen said. For example, investors generally get a better return on cash when interest rates are high.
Persons: SeongJoon Cho, Jonathan Petersen, Petersen, " Petersen, that's, Richard Madigan, Benjamin Atwater, Atwater, Morgan's Madigan, Jerome Powell, Bonnie Cash Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, . Federal, U.S ., Capital Economics, U.S, Morgan Private Bank, European Central Bank, Fed, Bank of Japan, U.S . Federal, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs, ECB Locations: Japan, Asia, Denver, Europe, U.S
Though CIO Michael Landsberg of Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management says the conditions don't justify a cut, he says there might be one. "I think if Chairman Powell had not said, we're gonna get a rate cut, we wouldn't be having these discussions because earnings growth has been really strong. Against that backdrop, Landsberg says, investors should focus on companies generating strong earnings growth. "The major indices are continuing to rally based on strong earnings growth. Earnings growth is the name of the game for this stock market right now," he said in additional notes to CNBC.
Persons: Michael Landsberg, Landsberg Bennett, Powell, we're, CNBC's, he's, Landsberg, They've, Stryker Organizations: U.S . Federal, Wealth Management, Fed, West Texas, CNBC, Trade Locations: Landsberg, China, U.S
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