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Investors are hoping that next week's Federal Reserve meeting offers more clarity about the path interest rates could take. Rising interest rates squeeze consumers, while a cut to follow should help boost economic activity. These pricey purchases are often financed, and higher rates mean higher costs. "Even if the sticker price of the thing doesn't change, the interest rate still matters a lot for their monthly budget." The "brakes were hit very hard in 2022," largely due to higher rates on the new-home construction side, he said.
Persons: Christopher Herrington, Herrington, Kurt Yinger, It's, James Hardie, Yinger, There's, Rafe Jadrosich, Jadrosich, Seth Sigman, Bank of America's Curtis Nagle, Nagle, Loop's Anthony Chukumba, Garik Shmois, Shmois, Leslie's, Julien Dumoulin, Smith, SunRun, Corinne Blanchard, Citi's Pierre Lau, SolarEdge, Lau, John Bailer, Michael Bloom Organizations: Virginia Commonwealth University, Davidson, Companies, Bank of America, Fortune Brands, UFP Industries, Barclays, Bank of America's, Williams, Pool Corp, of America, FTC, Deutsche Bank, Shoals Technologies, Caterpillar, Cummins, Newton Investment Management Locations: Louisiana, Wall, Sonoma, California
"Further strength might beget further strength because of the FOMO factor," he added, using the popular acronym for "fear of missing out." "Inflation has clearly subsided, and yet labor market strength has remained intact," wrote BMO Capital Markets chief investment strategist Brian Belski in a recent note. “Moving past the debt ceiling and at least having some economic data that looks ok is actually enough to get some people interested,” said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services. Lerner on Monday shifted his expected S&P 500 range for this year up to 3,800-4,500, from 3,400-4,300 previously, citing improving earnings trends among other factors. For Hans Olsen, chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust Co, that’s an ominous sign.
Persons: Cash, Chuck Carlson, Brian Belski, BofA, , Keith Lerner, Lerner, Monday, John Lynch, Hans Olsen, Olsen, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Diane Craft Organizations: YORK, BofA Global, Deutsche Bank, Horizon Investment Services, BMO Capital Markets, ” BMO, Reuters Graphics, ISI, Advisory, Comerica Wealth Management, Microsoft, Nvidia, Reuters, Thomson
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina's economy is going through a 'soft patch' but is set to recover later in the year: Deutsche BankMallika Sachdeva, Head of Asia Macro Strategy at Deutsche Bank explains how fiscal stimulus in China and a potential U.S recession will likely strengthen the Chinese yuan by the end of 2023.
Persons: Deutsche Bank Mallika Sachdeva Organizations: Deutsche Bank Locations: Asia, China
Price pressures and inflation expectations have moderated, but not by enough to deter the ECB from continuing its most aggressive tightening cycle on record. The ECB slowed the pace of its rate rises to 25 basis points at its May meeting after a flurry of 75 and 50 basis point moves. About three-quarters of economists, 43 of 59, forecast another 25 basis point rate hike in July, a stance hardly changed from a May poll. "A 25 basis point rate hike looks like a done deal for next week's meeting," said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING. "The ECB might not be convinced by the September meeting inflation is declining sufficiently to pause," he said.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Price, Christine Lagarde, Carsten Brzeski, Mark Wall, Prerana Bhat, Milounee Purohit, Ross Finley, Jonathan Cable, Susan Fenton Organizations: REUTERS, European Central Bank, Reuters, ECB, ING, U.S . Federal, Deutsche Bank, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Germany, Europe
"Bond King" Jeffrey Gundlach warned that a US recession is imminent, pointing to signs of weakening demand. "It's pretty clear that we have the look of soon to be at the front end of a recession," the billionaire investor said. Gundlach has consistently rang the alarm on an oncoming downturn as the economy faces a raft of headwinds. "It's pretty clear that we have the look of soon to be at the front end of a recession," Gundlach said. This is not the first time Gundlach, often called "Bond King" for his success in fixed-income investing, has warned of a oncoming US recession.
Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach, , David Rosenberg, that's Organizations: Service, Privacy, DoubleLine, CNBC, Deutsche Bank, Institute of Supply Management, Federal Reserve
US consumers are in great shape but the economy will face headwinds down the road, Jamie Dimon said. The JPMorgan CEO noted that prices of homes and assets had gone up and that debt is in a "good position". Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. "The thing about the economy is that today's still doing fine, consumers are in great shape, home prices have gone up for 10 years, asset prices have gone up, debt's in good position," Dimon told reporters on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC on Tuesday. People rely on the consistency standards that we have, the rule of law, or investor protections – we shouldn't be challenging that."
Persons: Jamie Dimon, , today's, Dimon, we'll, it's, I'd Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, Capitol, Deutsche Bank Locations: Washington , DC, Ukraine, United States
The Bank of Japan is the only major central bank that now has negative rates following aggressive tightening globally to combat inflation. It has hinted that it will alter yield curve control -- where it guides short-term rates at -0.1% and 10-year Japan government bond yield around zero -- at some point. Japanese investors hold around $1.84 trillion in foreign assets, according to Deutsche Bank. "Recent inflows into Japanese markets are mainly driven by the foreign investors," Murao said. "We do not really have a global champion such as Google, Amazon, or Meta in the Japanese markets," Murao added.
Persons: Florence Lo, Yuichi Murao, Murao, I've, Amanda Cooper, Dhara, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, Nomura Asset Management, Reuters, The Bank of Japan, Nomura, Management, Equity, Treasury, Nikkei, Deutsche Bank, Apple, Visa, Toyota, Sony, PlayStation, Thomson Locations: Japan, Tokyo
The Treasury Department may issue $1.6 trillion in bills over the full year, Deutsche Bank said. That's as it looks to rebuild its cash balance following the debt ceiling crisis. On Friday, just before the debt limit bill was signed, the balance was just $23.4 billion. On Friday, just before the debt limit bill was signed, the cash balance in the TGA was just $23.4 billion, down from $140 billion in mid-May. By September, analysts expects the Treasury Department will have restored its cash balance to about $600 billion.
Persons: , Joe Biden, That's Organizations: Treasury, Deutsche Bank, Service, Treasury Department, JPMorgan
Bank of America upgrades McCormick to buy from underperform Bank of America said it sees an improved cost outlook for McCormick. "Our prior Underperform rating was predicated on negative revision risk to revenues and margins. Bank of America upgrades Molson Coors to neutral from underperform Bank of America said Molson is poised for share gains after the Bud controversy. Bank of America upgrades Cigna to buy from neutral Bank of America said it sees an attractive risk/reward outlook for the stock. Piper Sandler reiterates Tesla as overweight Piper said Tesla shares aren't cheap but is standing by its overweight rating.
Persons: D.A, Davidson, Goldman Sachs, it's, We're, McCormick, Molson, Bud, MoffettNathanson, JPMorgan Chase downgrades Cabot, JPMorgan Chase, Cabot, Morgan Stanley, AMCX, Piper Sandler, Tesla, Piper, Mizuho, Coinbase, Organizations: . Deutsche Bank, Shell Deutsche Bank, Shell, Apple, Holdings, Bank of America, underperform Bank of America, Molson Coors, Bud Light, Barclays, Adobe, " Bank of America, of America, JPMorgan, FedEx, UPS, RBC, AMC Networks, UW, U.S . Securities, Exchange, SEC, Binance Locations: Washington, Americas, China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIt may be healthy for the economy to see 'a little bit of a bust': Deutsche BankHenrik Johnsson, global co-head of capital markets at Deutsche Bank, says the "economy will come out stronger on the other side."
Persons: Deutsche Bank Henrik Johnsson Organizations: Deutsche Bank
The Treasury General Account has fallen sharply since January when Treasury hit its limit on borrowing. Cash balance targets indicate it will need to rebuild its account quickly now that the borrowing cap has been lifted. "Money market funds are extremely short ... so the trillion-dollar Treasury bills (issuance) would be welcome with open arms," said money market fund expert Peter Crane, president of Crane Data. Part of that could be due to the fact that money funds, heavily exposed to short-term debt this year, have started to extend the their maturities recently. "The Federal Reserve RRP has been holding trillions of the money fund assets and so that money can easily be redeployed into Treasury bills.
Persons: Steven Zeng, Zeng, Glenmede, Peter Crane, RRP, Bank's Zeng, Davide Barbuscia, Karen Brettel, Alden Bentley, Matthew Lewis Organizations: YORK, Treasury, Deutsche Bank, Treasuries, Crane, Federal, Thomson Locations: New York
Throughout the height of COVID, carmakers got used to getting high prices. Car companies have a new way of keeping prices up: limiting options on the dealer lot. Since recovering from COVID-related plant shutdowns and an extended shortage of chips required for today's tech-laden cars, companies like Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis have finally seen more cars head to dealer lots. But they got used to selling vehicles for high prices with minimal inventory on their lots. But shoppers shouldn't necessarily see some automaker's low inventory as a signal of high demand for a vehicle that they'd have to pay big dollars to compete on.
Persons: carmakers, that's, Karl Brauer, We've, Brauer, Kelley, Ed Kim, Kim Organizations: Morning, Ford, General Motors, Deutsche Bank, Fort Locations: COVID, Fort Wayne
Further stock market advance depends on rally broadening out
  + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The advance in those indexes, particularly the S & P 500, has been very uneven, even with last week's broad rally. Lowry Research analysts noted that investors simply in the S & P 500, or in tech stocks, were clearly in an up market. Lowry noted that 48.2% of all operating-company only stocks are 20% or more below their 52-week highs, which Lowry and others define as bear market territory. That's far worse than the 32% that were in bear market territory on February 2, when the S & P 500 was at a new high for the year. "Bull markets are hard-pressed to last when the number of stocks entering 'bear market territory' grows," Lowry noted.
Persons: You'd, Chadha, SPX, Venu Krishna, Lowry, Russell, Quincy Krosby Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Barclays, Street Journal, Lowry Research, LPL
Oppenheimer reiterates Meta as outperform Oppenheimer raised its price target on the stock to $350 per share from $285 and said it's well-positioned. Deutsche Bank upgrades Rio Tinto to buy from hold Deutsche Bank said shares of the metals and mining company are very attractive. Morgan Stanley reiterates Disney as overweight Morgan Stanley lowered its price target on the stock to $110 from $120 but said it's standing by the shares. " Morgan Stanley downgrades Dollar General to equal weight from overweight Morgan Stanley said in its downgrade of Dollar General that it sees too many risks right now. Morgan Stanley upgrades Equitrans Midstream to overweight from underweight Morgan Stanley said the energy company is better positioned after the debt ceiling raise.
Persons: Tesla, Canaccord, Oppenheimer, it's, TD Cowen, Cowen, Bernstein, it's bullish, Needham, Coinbase, Morgan Stanley, Disney, KeyBanc, Jefferies, Wolfe, Wells, Wells Fargo, Estee Lauder, Morgan Stanley downgrades, Equitrans, Stifel, Brett Parker, JPMorgan Chase Organizations: U.S, Formula, Deutsche Bank, Rio Tinto, Disney, Media, Target, Costco, Jefferies, Oracle, Palo Alto Networks, Alpha, Citi, Micron, Wells Fargo, Nike, Bank of America, Apple, of America, Pipeline, Barclays, Meta, JPMorgan Chase, JPMorgan Locations: China, Rio, Lido, Binance, Palo, SKX
TipRanks recognized the 10 best analysts in the services sector for identifying the best investment opportunities. TipRanks leveraged its Experts Center tool to zoom in on analysts with a high success rate, and analyzed every recommendation made by analysts in the services sector over the past decade. TipRanks' algorithms calculated the statistical significance of each rating, the average return, and analysts' overall success rate. Top 10 analysts from the consumer goods sectorThe image below shows the most successful Wall Street analysts from the services sector. Jake Bartlett - Truist FinancialJake Bartlett has the 10th spot on the list, with a success rate of 66%.
Persons: JACK CELH TFII, Simon Dawson, TipRanks, Jason Seidl, Cowen Jason Seidl, Patrick Brown, Raymond James Patrick Brown, Scot Ciccarelli, Brian Nagel, Oppenheimer Brian Nagel, Carlo Santarelli, Gary Prestopino, Barrington, Helane Becker, Cowen, Walter Spracklin, Spracklin, Jeff Van Sinderen, Jake Bartlett Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Reuters, Truist, FIVE, Caesars Entertainment, United Airlines Holdings, RBC, RBC Capital, TFI, Holdings Locations: London, Britain, Canadian
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMidwestern housing market looks hot while sun belt region stays cold, says Zillow’s Skylar OlsenZillow’s Skylar Olsen and Deutsche Bank’s Joe Ahlersmeyer join 'Power Lunch' to discuss the U.S. housing market with a 7 percent mortgage rate putting pressure on the sector.
Persons: Zillow’s Skylar Olsen Zillow’s Skylar Olsen, Joe Ahlersmeyer Organizations: Deutsche
Data from Evident shows it advertised 3,651 AI-related jobs in three months. JPMorgan is leading the way in Wall Street's shift towards AI, according to data reported by Bloomberg. The bank advertised 3,651 jobs globally from February through April with roles related to AI, per Bloomberg. JPMorgan's job adverts are nearly double that of its closest competitor, Citigroup, which advertised around 2,100 AI-related roles across the same time period, Bloomberg reported. Only Deutsche Bank and BNP Paribas also advertised more than 1,000 AI-related jobs, according to the report.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Larry Fink, Insider's Rebecca Ungarino Organizations: JPMorgan, Bloomberg, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, BNP, CNBC, Wednesday, BlackRock
JPMorgan downgrades Okta to neutral from overweight JPMorgan Chase said it sees too many macroeconomic pressures for the company. " JPMorgan downgrades Target to neutral from overweight JPMorgan Chase said in its downgrade of the stock it sees a "weakening" consumer. Bank of America initiates Toast as buy Bank of America said the restaurant tech company is "best in class." JPMorgan upgrades Domino's Pizza to overweight from neutral JPMorgan Chase said in its upgrade of Domino's that it's too cheap to ignore. Bank of America reiterates Dick's as buy Bank of America said it's bullish on the company's new store format.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Johnson, it's, Salesforce, JPMorgan downgrades, JPMorgan Chase, we've, Horton, PulteGroup, TOST, BorgWarner, Morgan Stanley, Tesla, XOM, Cowen, Phillips, Wedbush, Macquarie, Dick's, it's bullish, DKS Organizations: AAP, Barclays, JCI, RBC, Chevron, JPMorgan, JPMorgan downgrades Target, Deutsche Bank, " Bank of America, Bank of America, Restaurant Association, BorgWarner Deutsche Bank, Citi, Meta, ExxonMobil, UBS, CSX, Garden Entertainment, Knicks, Rangers, Networks Locations: Europe, New York
London CNN —With the threat of an unprecedented US debt crisis receding fast, the global economy looks to have dodged a huge shock. While an immediate crisis has likely been avoided, the litany of problems that had been temporarily overshadowed by the specter of a US default — among them, high inflation, rising interest rates and sluggish growth — haven’t gone away. Bloomberg/Getty ImagesInflation still too highAgainst that backdrop, inflation has eased in Europe’s second biggest economy, mimicking falls in Germany, Spain and Italy. But it could still arise from two longstanding threats: the Ukraine war and the climate crisis, both of which pose risks to global supply chains and food prices. The war helped drive international food prices to an all-time high last year.
Persons: specter, haven’t, , Carsten Brzeski, , Charlotte de, Neil Shearing, Vladimir Putin, Michael Bociurkiw, Bociurkiw, Marcelo del Pozo Organizations: London CNN —, ING, Charlotte de Montpellier, Bloomberg, Getty, Data, United, Deutsche Bank, Capital Economics, Atlantic Council, Isla Mayor, ” Gro Intelligence Locations: United States, China, Germany, France, Beijing, Europe’s, Spain, Italy, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Moscow, Russian, Russia, Isla, Europe
Snowflake should emerge as a long-term artificial intelligence winner despite a host of near-term snowstorms, Wall Street analysts think. The cloud stock dropped more than 16% last Thursday after the company shared product revenue guidance that fell short of consensus expectations and results that indicated slowing growth. Even with these headwinds, many analysts remain positive on Snowflake's long-term trajectory, viewing an acquisition and the transition to the cloud as two catalysts for the stock. Deutsche Bank's Brad Zelnick said in a recent note that AI, among other developments, should drive customer stickiness and improved use cases. A murky future Not everyone seems optimistic about Snowflake's AI potential, however.
Persons: Snowflake, Brent Thill, Piper Sandler's Brent Bracelin, Raymond James, Simon Leopold, Frank Slootman, Goldman Sachs, Kash Rangan, Rangan, Brad Zelnick, Redburn, Alex Haissl, Haissl, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wall Street, Wolfe Research, Snowflake's Summit, Deutsche, Palo Alto Networks Locations: Snowflake, Las Vegas
LONDON, May 31 (Reuters) - The European Commission will propose greater transparency in the trading of credit default swaps of eight top banks to mirror rules in U.S. markets, a European Union document seen by Reuters showed on Wednesday. So-called single name credit default swaps have come under regulatory scrutiny after the fall and state-backed rescue of Credit Suisse triggered high volatility on the CDS market for some systemic banks, Deutsche Bank in particular, on March 24. "One of the conclusions on the events of Friday, 24 March, was that single name CDS contracts are opaque and illiquid," the EU executive body said in a document for a meeting of EU states on Thursday. The Commission said it proposes to re-insert CDS on Santander, BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, Deutsche Bank, ING Bank, Intesa Sanpaolo, Societe Generale and DZ Bank into the scope of derivatives transactions subject to post trade transparency. Incomplete and asymmetrical reporting of CDS contracts linked to systemically important banks causes insecurity in markets during shocks, the paper said.
Persons: Intesa, Huw Jones, Jon Boyle, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: European, Reuters, Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Santander, BNP, Credit Agricole, ING Bank, Societe Generale, DZ Bank, Thomson Locations: EU
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said the firm is spending a lot of time analyzing artificial intelligence. The firm's experts believe AI will increase productivity by 30%, Fink said on Wednesday. A BlackRock team called AI Labs that works on natural language processing and other areas. If AI can meaningfully increase productivity, Fink said, then "you don't have to own just these AI companies. Bank of America research analysts have called AI a "baby bubble" for the investment mania around the tech.
Persons: Larry Fink, Fink, " Fink, He's, Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing, OpenAI's ChatGPT, ChatGPT, Catalyst, Andreessen Horowitz Organizations: BlackRock, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche Bank CEO Christian, of America Locations: BlackRock, New York, Palo Alto , California, Edinburgh, Scotland
Here are Wednesday's biggest calls on Wall Street: Needham initiates Sovos Brands as buy Citi said Sovos' Brands Rao's Tomato Sauce will be a $1 billion brand in the next three-to-four years. " Citi reiterates Anheuser-Busch InBev as buy Citi said investors should buy the dip in the beer giant. Deutsche Bank upgrades Avis to buy from hold Deutsche said the rental car company that it has upside potential. "In a tougher recession and sharp travel fall-off where revenue growth is cut in half, we estimate mid to high single digit EPS risk, implying an excellent risk/reward given valuation. Citi reiterates Nvidia as buy Citi said investors should "stay long" in shares of Nvidia.
Persons: Needham, Sovos, Michael Angelo's, Bernstein, Wedbush, it's, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Bud, Baird, Mobileye, XYL, Wells, Key, AMBA, Mizuho, Piper Sandler, Piper Organizations: Brands, Citi, Amazon, Worldwide, Conference, SeaWorld, Anheuser, Busch InBev, Deutsche Bank, Avis, Deutsche, UBS, American Express, American, Palo Alto Networks, JPMorgan, Chevron, Service, Nvidia, TAM, Liberty, Microsoft Locations: US, Noosa, Cupertino, European, Wells Fargo, CrowdStrike, Zscaler, Palo, America, F2023E
Default wave imminent, will peak in 2024, Deutsche Bank says
  + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
Deutsche expects default rates to peak in the fourth quarter of next year. It forecast peak default rates to reach 9% for U.S. high-yield debt, 11.3% for U.S. loans, 4.4% for European high-yield bonds and 7.3% for European loans. The estimate for a U.S. loan peak default rate of 11.3% would be a near all-time high, compared to a peak of 12% during the 2007-2008 global financial crisis and 7.7% during the U.S. technology bubble in the late 1990s, Deutsche noted. Within the European high-yield bond market, real estate was the sector facing the greatest pressure and accounted for over half of all European high-yield distressed debt, Deutsche said. Still, that would not prevent a base case of rising default rates, Deutsche said.
Persons: Chiara Elisei, Dhara Ranasinghe, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Deutsche, U.S, U.S . Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: United States, Europe, Germany, U.S
Ambarella — The chip stock fell 11.76%. Hewlett Packard Enterprise – Shares of the tech company slid 7.09% a day after the company posted a mixed quarterly report. HP – The stock fell 6.05%. Its adjusted earnings per share of 80 cents topped the 76 cents per share expected. Twilio – The tech stock rallied 11.09%.
Persons: David Zinsner, Ambarella, KeyBanc, Carvana, Twilio, KeyCorp, CNBC's Hakyung Kim, Jesse Pound, Brian Evans, Tanaya Macheel, Fred Imbert Organizations: Intel, Avis Budget, Deutsche Bank, Nvidia —, Nvidia, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, HP, Refinitiv, Micron Technology, Goldman Sachs Global Semiconductor Conference, Micron, Partners, Zions Bancorp, Citizens Financial Group, Truist Locations: China,
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