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SINGAPORE, Dec 28 (Reuters) - Asian equities were subdued on Wednesday, while the dollar held firm, with investors looking for direction after China took further steps towards reopening its COVID-battered economy. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was down 0.9 basis points at 3.849%, hovering around the five-week high of 3.862% it touched in the previous session. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was down 2.3 basis points at 3.920%, while the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was down 1.9 basis points at 4.349%. "The spring salary negotiation next year is the most important to watch for further meaningful policy change for the Bank of Japan." The dollar index , which measures the safe-haven greenback against six major currencies, rose 0.077%.
Dollar hits one-week high vs yen, drops against pound
  + stars: | 2022-12-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar touched a one-week high against the yen on Wednesday, boosted by a jump in Treasury yields and investor expectations for a rebound in Chinese growth as COVID-19 curbs loosen. Meanwhile, the pound headed towards its largest one-day rise against the dollar in two weeks as Britain's markets reopened after a long weekend. That day, the yen staged its biggest one-day rally against the dollar in 24 years, closing 3.8% higher, as traders speculated about an eventual unwinding of stimulus. The dollar was up 0.2% against the Japanese yen at 133.785. The Australian dollar rose 1% against its U.S. namesake to $0.680, while the New Zealand dollar strengthened by 1.1% to $0.634.
"The biggest challenge for Japan's economy is a lack of wage growth. Unless wages rise, consumption won't pick up and companies won't increase investment," Kihara said, speaking during a television programme. While companies are responsible for deciding how much they hike pay, the government can help achieve higher wages through tax incentives, Kihara said. "The government will increase its focus on achieving wage growth. Japan's consumer inflation hit a four-decade high of 3.7% in November, well above the BOJ's target, hitting households who have yet to see wages rise enough to make up for the spike in prices of consumers goods.
Dollar flat as investors digest China's loosening of COVID rules
  + stars: | 2022-12-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar was flat on Tuesday after China said it would scrap its COVID-19 quarantine rule for inbound travelers - a major step in reopening its borders, even as COVID cases spike. At the same time, Beijing downgraded regulations for managing COVID cases to the lighter Category B from the top-level Category A. "There seems to be no let-up in the pace of relaxing COVID restrictions despite the surge in COVID cases in the mainland." Elsewhere, the euro rose 0.1% against the dollar to $1.0640. With UK markets closed for a public holiday, trading in sterling was muted, leaving the pound down against the dollar at around $1.2031.
China will stop requiring inbound travellers to go into quarantine on arrival starting Jan. 8, the National Health Commission said on Monday, even as COVID cases spike. At the same time, Beijing downgraded the regulations for managing COVID cases to the less strict Category B from the top-level Category A. "There seems to be no let-up in the pace of relaxing COVID restrictions despite the surge in COVID cases in the mainland," said Christopher Wong, a currency strategist at OCBC. "It's worth remembering that the dollar rose in each of the past four years in January. "While ... (the) policy tweak has added uncertainty to the BOJ outlook, we continue to lean toward BOJ policymakers making no further policy adjustments through the end of 2023," said analysts at Wells Fargo.
TOKYO, Dec 27 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has modified its stimulus measures to ease the transition away from an unconventional monetary policy when Governor Haruhiko Kuroda retires in April, former top currency diplomat Takehiko Nakao told Reuters in an interview. "The BOJ has not succeeded so much in raising inflation expectations and bringing down real interest rates while side-effects became larger. "The yen was too strong back then, but now the yen is clearly too weak," Nakao said, declining to specify preferred levels under current circumstances. Nakao said Japan's waning economic power and its excessively expansionist policy are weighing on the yen and making Japanese assets vulnerable to takeovers by overseas investors. "It is helpful that raising interest rates lead to some strengthening of the yen."
Haruhiko Kuroda, governor of the Bank of Japan, speaks during a news conference at the central bank's headquarters in Tokyo on Dec. 20, 2022. Yuya Yamamoto | Jiji Press | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesBank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Monday brushed aside the chance of a near-term exit from ultra-loose monetary policy but voiced hope that intensifying labor shortages will prod firms to raise wages. "Labor market conditions in Japan are projected to tighten further, and firms' price- and wage-setting behavior is also likely to change," Kuroda said. "In this sense, Japan is approaching a critical juncture in breaking out of a prolonged period of low inflation and low growth," he said. The BOJ shocked markets last week with a surprise widening of the band around its 10-year yield target.
The Nikkei share average (.N225) rose 0.65% to close at 26,405.87, while the broader Topix (.TOPX) edged up 0.24% at 1,902.52. "Japanese shares rose because U.S. equities gained at the end of last week, but the trading is very quiet with most participants in the U.S. and Europe away for holidays," said Shuji Hosoi, senior strategist at Daiwa Securities. Heavyweight Fast Retailing (9983.T), owner of the Uniqlo brand, rose 2.0% and chip-making equipment maker Tokyo Electron (8035.T) gained 2.22%. "The 10-year government bond yield hovers below the top end of the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) policy band, which prompted a sell-off of banking shares," Hosoi said. The volume of shares traded on the Tokyo bourse's main board was 0.85 billion, compared to the average of 1.25 billion in the past 30 days.
Kuroda said the BOJ's decision last week to widen the allowance band around its yield target was aimed at enhancing the effect of its ultra-easy policy, rather than a first step toward withdrawing its massive stimulus programme. "Labour market conditions in Japan are projected to tighten further, and firms' price- and wage-setting behaviour is also likely to change," Kuroda said. The BOJ shocked markets last week with a surprise widening of the band around its 10-year yield target. The outcome of next year's spring wage negotiations between big companies and unions will also be key to the outlook for wage growth, he said. Speaking at the same meeting, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida called for business leaders' help in achieving wage growth high enough to compensate households for the rising cost of living.
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.1% last month after climbing 0.4% in October. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE index gained 0.2% after increasing 0.3% in October. The so-called core PCE price index rose 4.7% on a year-on-year basis in November after increasing 5.0% in October. The Canadian dollar also benefited from data showing that the Canadian economy grew by 0.1% in October versus September, with another 0.1% increase in GDP seen likely in November, Statistics Canada data showed. Against the yen, however, the dollar rose 0.4% to 132.82 yen .
Morning Bid: Grinch (re)appears
  + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
And so the safe-haven U.S. dollar is back on the prowl, with Asian shares (.MIAPJ0000PUS) set to end in the red for a second straight week. Investors will now focus on U.S. personal consumption expenditures data, due later on Friday, which will provide more clues on the direction of inflation as traders look ahead to 2023. Some are clinging to the hope that central banks will likely pause interest rate hikes next year in the face of an economic slowdown. But as Generali Investments strategists put it, central banks are still showing their teeth, committed to tackling inflation, and an outright policy pivot looks distant. In the corporate world, chip stocks slumped worldwide after Micron's (MU.O) dour forecast on what the chipmaker called a "significant supply demand mismatch".
Equity funds record largest ever weekly outflows -BofA
  + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( Lucy Raitano | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
U.S. value funds and passive equities also recorded record weekly net outflows, of $17.2 billion and $27.8 billion respectively, the bank said. BofA said "tax loss harvesting" was behind the record outflows, a strategy that involves selling assets at a loss to offset capital gains taxes. Local emerging market bonds drew their first net inflow since April, while emerging market equities recorded a third week of inflows, adding a net $3.2 billion. On a sector basis they favour value over growth, and industrials and banks over tech and private equity. Bond funds recorded net outflows of $10 billion, prompting a small drop in BofA's "Bull & Bear" indicator to 3 from 3.1 last week - which was its highest since March 15th.
Asian shares slide as fears over hawkish Fed mount
  + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
SINGAPORE, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Asian shares eased on Friday, tracking a dive on Wall Street, while the dollar firmed as strong U.S. data revived fears the Federal Reserve will have to retain its hawkish stance to tame inflation. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) slid 0.69%, snapping a two-day winning streak. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index (.AXJO) lost 1.01%, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) opened 1% lower. The data from the United States "flamed fears that further monetary policy tightening in 2023 will be necessary to cool inflation," said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against six other currencies, fell 0.057% to 104.32.
Sterling was just a touch higher at $1.2038 having slumped to a three-week low of $1.1993 overnight. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased less than expected last week, pointing to a still-tight labour market, data released on Thursday showed. BOJ SURPRISEThe yen was marginally lower at 132.39 per dollar on Friday, but was on track for its third largest weekly gain this year of more than 3%. "Japan's inflation figures will be closely scrutinised from here on," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Elsewhere in Asia, the Chinese offshore yuan rose slightly to 7.0038 per dollar.
"It's important to continue checking how a future exit from ultra-loose monetary policy could affect markets and whether market participants are prepared for the move," the member said. Some in the nine-member board also said the BOJ must be mindful of how future interest rate rises might affect mortgage loans, the minutes showed. The remarks highlight the growing attention the BOJ policymakers was placing on prospects of higher inflation, and the possibility of a future withdrawal of stimulus. At the October meeting, the BOJ kept ultra-low interest rates and its dovish guidance despite revising up its inflation forecasts in a show of resolve to keep focusing on supporting a fragile economic recovery. Reporting by Leika Kihara; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman and Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBank of Japan's yield curve control policy tweak is a step in the right direction, fund manager saysVikas Pershad of M&G Investments discusses the central bank's yield curve control policy tweak and says "what we have gotten this week is a tacit acknowledgement from the BoJ that Japan's dalliance with deflation is done."
Japan’s Yield Curve Control Is a Tool Worth Keeping
  + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( Jon Sindreu | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Like a heavy power drill, the Bank of Japan’s policy of capping bond yields seems to be difficult to use without cracking the wall. Unlike many of the tools tested by central banks since 2008, though, it may be worth keeping in the box. Haruhiko Kuroda has so far stood apart from other central bankers in refusing to unwind extra-loose monetary policy. Under his “yield curve control,” or YCC, the 10-year Japanese government-debt yield remains pegged at 0%. Yields have since jumped close to the new ceiling.
"Private sector demands will drive growth in fiscal 2023," the government said in a statement, although warning of downside risks from an overseas economic slowdown, inflation, supply bottlenecks and market fluctuations. The official forecast was much higher than economists' median estimate of a 1.1% expansion in a recent Reuters poll. The government and the BOJ have repeatedly called for higher pay hikes as a key to Japan's post-pandemic economic growth with sustainable price inflation. Meanwhile, it raised its consumer inflation forecast to a 3.0% increase from 2.6% seen in July. Higher wage growth and a sustained solid economic recovery are crucial to how quickly the BOJ can unwind its massive monetary stimulus.
Inflation may be picking up in Japan but that's in large part due to the yen's weakness this year. chartJapan's economic surprises index is still negative, having rolled over this month. Others, like the China and emerging market indexes, have fallen off a cliff in recent days and are deeply negative. China's economic surprises index is hovering around its lowest level since June, and the emerging market index this week hit its lowest and most negative level in over a year. With the U.S. economic surprises index now in negative territory and the lowest since September, growth fears are mounting and risk assets are feeling the heat.
Yen rises in cautious calm after BOJ policy tweak
  + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
The greenback, which rose 0.6% against the yen in the previous session, had failed to meaningfully recoup its 3.8% slump following Tuesday's news. "The BOJ opened the door, obviously, for further unwinding of its super-loose policies," said Sean Callow, a senior currency strategist at Westpac. Against the euro , the yen steadied at 140.27, while trading at 159.73 per pound . Sterling rose 0.14% against the dollar to $1.2102, after having slid 0.85% overnight. "In a world where risk sentiment is still very fragile, currencies whose countries have a twin deficit are at risk compared to others."
Dollar steady after strong U.S. data, yen set for weekly gain
  + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The euro was up slightly against the dollar, standing 0.16% higher at $1.061, after slipping less than 0.1% on Thursday. Yet the Japanese currency was on track for a weekly gain of around 3% after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) tweaked a key bond market policy earlier this week. The Japanese currency jumped almost 4% on Tuesday - its biggest daily rise since 1998 - after the BOJ changed a key policy, making Japanese assets look more attractive. "Getting to 130 (yen per dollar) is certainly possible," said Erik Nelson, macro strategist at Wells Fargo. Nelson said that low trading volumes going into the holidays were causing currencies to fluctuate more than usual.
Asia shares join Wall St bounce, yen keeps climbing
  + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
read moreThat helped spark a rally on Wall Street with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both adding another 0.3% on Thursday. EUROSTOXX 50 futures rose 0.1% and FTSE futures 0.3%, though turnover was subdued by the usual seasonal lull. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) firmed 1.1%, while Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) rose 0.75%. "Insurance firms will be most affected by falling bond prices, whereas pension funds have most to lose from a stronger exchange rate. The dollar was already down at 131.93 yen , having shed 3.5% for the week so far, though it had found some support around 130.40.
Japan’s consumer inflation hits fresh 40-year high
  + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
Japan’s core consumer inflation hit a fresh four-decade high as companies continued to pass on rising costs to households, data showed, a sign price hikes were broadening and could keep the central bank under pressure to whittle down massive stimulus. Japan’s core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food but includes energy costs, rose 3.7% in November from a year earlier, data showed Friday, matching market forecasts and perking up from a 3.6% gain in October. “We’ll likely see a rush in price hikes next year that could be more intense than this year,” as companies face rising labor and distribution costs, Teikoku Data Bank said. We can’t rule out the chance of a big overshoot in inflation,” one member was quoted as saying in the October minutes. The CPI data will likely be among key factors the BOJ will scrutinize when it produces fresh quarterly inflation forecasts at a two-day policy meeting ending on January 18.
Japan's core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food but includes energy costs, rose 3.7% in November from a year earlier, data showed on Friday, matching market forecasts and perking up from a 3.6% gain in October. Reuters GraphicsAside from utility bills, prices rose for a broad range of goods from fried chicken, smartphones to air conditioners, in a sign of mounting inflationary pressure, the data showed. But an index stripping away such one-off factors may remain elevated and keep pressure on the BOJ to remain vigilant to the chance of a demand-driven rise in inflation. "We'll likely see a rush in price hikes next year that could be more intense than this year," as companies face rising labour and distribution costs, Teikoku Data Bank said. The CPI data will likely be among key factors the BOJ will scrutinise when it produces fresh quarterly inflation forecasts at a two-day policy meeting ending on Jan. 18.
The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index rose on Wednesday for the first day in five, snapping its longest losing streak since October. On the data front South Korean producer price inflation, Thai trade balance and Taiwanese unemployment and industrial production figures are all scheduled for release. Bank Indonesia is expected to follow the U.S. Fed's example and slow the pace of interest rate hikes while stressing that the battle against inflation is far from over. chartLooking at the broader market picture, the U.S. yield curve continues to retrace its recent historic inversion, with spillovers from the Bank of Japan's yield curve control shock on Tuesday playing a part. The U.S. 2s/10s curve is on course to steepen for a third consecutive week, something not seen since October last year.
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