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July 12 (Reuters) - Several major global banks raised their terminal rate forecasts for the Bank of England's (BoE) key interest rate after the central bank surprised with a larger-than-expected 50 basis points (bps) hike to 5% in the June meeting. Deutsche Bank on Tuesday raised its forecast for the August meeting to a 50 bps hike amid wage pressure concerns but removed its forecast for a rate increase in November. It had earlier forecast a 25 bps raise each in August, September and November meetings. Following are forecasts from some global banks:Compiled by Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi AichOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: BoE, Rashmi Organizations: Bank of England's, Deutsche Bank, Research, Thomson Locations: Bengaluru
Detroit automakers, like their global counterparts, have been focused on cost reductions, which in some cases include job cuts, to help accelerate a shift to electric vehicles (EVs) from gasoline-powered vehicles. Contract talks between the UAW and the Detroit automakers have gone on until the strike deadline and beyond in past years. "To win, we're likely going to have to take action," UAW Fain said on Wednesday. The Detroit Three want to close the cost gap they have with foreign automakers with non-unionized U.S. factories. In fiscal 2019, GM's fourth-quarter profit took a $3.6 billion hit from a 40-day UAW strike.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, Shawn Fain, Fain, Jim Farley, we're, UAW Fain, Biden, Tesla, GM's, Nathan Gomes, Sriraj Organizations: United Auto Workers, UAW, International Workers, REUTERS, Detroit Three, General Motors, Ford Motor, Chrysler, Detroit, WHO, Ford, Detroit automakers, FROM, Reuters, EV, Deutsche Bank, Lear Corp, Anderson Economic Group, Thomson Locations: New York, Manhattan , New York City , New York, U.S, Bengaluru
Both Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt on Monday told an audience in the City of London that high wage settlements were harming their efforts to contain inflation. Much of the increase in pay has been driven by the private sector, with annual wage growth increasing to 7.6% in the three months to April. However, Bank of England Governor Bailey noted in his Mansion House speech on Monday that the British economy has proven unexpectedly resilient. Last summer saw a slew of strikes and protests as real wages, which reflect the power of a worker's pay after accounting for inflation, declined at a record rate. "No question about it, current nominal wage growth remains far too high relative to the sustainable rate of probably around 3.5-4.0% yoy.
Persons: Mark Kerrison, Andrew Bailey, Jeremy Hunt, Stuart Cole, BoE, Rishi Sunak, Danni Hewson, AJ Bell, Bank of England Governor Bailey, Sanjay Raja, Raja, Equiti's Cole, Bailey, Kallum Pickering, Pickering Organizations: National Education Union, Department for Education, Getty, LONDON, Bank of England, National Statistics, . Finance, City of, Equiti, Monetary, Deutsche Bank, MPC, Treasury, Bank, The, England's Locations: London, United Kingdom, City, City of London, Ukraine
In recent weeks, banks have stepped up efforts to prevent such losses, according to commercial real estate (CRE) analysts and industry data. The 23 largest U.S. banks held 20% of office and downtown retail CRE loans, according to the U.S. Federal Reserve. Small banks also have high exposure to CRE loans as a percentage of their assets. About $2.1 billion of office loans pooled in CMBS matured in May, almost double the total amount from January through April, for example. If borrowers agreed to loan extensions, some $10.8 billion of office loans maturing this year would be pushed to later years, Moody's said.
Persons: Shaishav Agarwal, Agarwal, Steve Jellinek, Moody's, Kevin Fagan, Fagan, ” Fagan, Eliasaf, , Banks, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Matt Tracy, Paritosh Bansal, Nick Zieminski Organizations: U.S, Deutsche Bank, U.S . Federal, Manhattan, Northwind, Thomson Locations: York
Analysts at Goldman Sachs have picked a number of global stocks it says are trading at a discount — and said two of its picks could rise more than 100% over the next 12 months. The analysts picked telecommunications company BT Group , giving it an estimated 130% potential upside in the next year. Goldman also gave Lloyds Bank potential upside of 78%, and said South African technology group Naspers could rise by 71% over 12 months. 'Upside risks' The stocks all appear on Goldman's list called "value buys with earnings upside potential." The bank gave Intesta Sanpaolo a 58% potential upside to its 12-month price target.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, John Sawtell, Goldman, Andrew Lee, Sanpaolo, Chris Hallam, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Goldman, BT Group, BT, Natwest, Deutsche Bank, Lloyds Bank, Porsche Locations: African
Stocks rise, dollar retreats ahead of inflation data
  + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Markets are awaiting U.S. inflation data on Wednesday to see if price pressures are continuing to moderate, which could provide clues on the interest rate outlook. The MSCI All-World index (.MIWD00000PUS) rose 0.3%, lifted by gains in European shares, as the STOXX 600 (.STOXX) rose 0.6% and U.S. stock index futures , rose 0.2-0.4%, suggesting a modest rise at the opening bell. Economists polled by Reuters expect the consumer price index to have risen by 3.1% in June, after May's 4% increase. "There is a massive eye on tomorrow's inflation data - it comes to late in the day for the July meeting. Analysts expect earnings to have shrunk 6.4% in the second quarter year-on-year, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.
Persons: Toby Melville, Craig Erlam, Jim Reid, Wells, Julie Zhu, Jamie Freed, David Evans, Chizu Organizations: London Stock Exchange Group, City of, REUTERS, Federal, Reuters, U.S ., Treasury, Deutsche Bank, London Metal Exchange, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Refinitiv, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, China, U.S, Brent, Wall, Hong Kong
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe like investment-grade bonds now, happy to move to high-yield bonds after recession: Deutsche BankChristian Nolting of Deutsche Bank discusses his asset allocation strategy right now and explains why "now is a good entry point" for private markets.
Organizations: Deutsche Bank Christian, Deutsche Bank
The bullish view Just four of the 15 strategists expect the S & P 500 to end the year higher than current levels, albeit very slightly. He expects the S & P 500 to end the year at 4,500 — up 2.3% from its current level. Instead, Peng said the S & P 500 's performance will likely broaden over the second half of this year. She expects the S & P 500 to remain flat by the end of the year at 4,300. UBS expects the S & P 500 to end the year at 4,100 — a drop of 7% from current levels.
Persons: Stocks, BlackRock Karim Chedid, Jerome Powell, Karim Chedid, Chedid, Chadha, Charles Schwab Liz Ann Sonders, Ken Peng, Peng, Savita Subramanian, Andreas Bruckner, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Matt Rowe, Mark Haefele, Christian Abuide, Sameer Samana, Rowe, Wouter Sturkenboom, Sturkenboom Organizations: CNBC Pro, Investment, iShares EMEA, BlackRock, Reserve, Deutsche Bank, Citi Global Wealth Investments, Big Tech, Bank of, Equity, Nomura, UBS Global Wealth Management, Federal Reserve, UBS, Lombard, RBC Wealth Management, U.S, Global Market, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment, Nomura Private Capital, EMEA, APAC, Northern Trust, Wells Fargo Investment Institute Locations: U.S, Asia, Europe, Wells Fargo, Northern, Samana
Deutsche Bank analysts recently shared their 29 top stock picks for the next 12 months. Upcoming rate hikes and a looming recession have kept investors apprehensive about the future of the stock market — but not enough to impede the ongoing bull rally. 29 top stock picks for the next yearIn a report from July 7, Deutsche Bank analysts updated their quarterly Fresh Money List, which reflects their top investment ideas to hold over the next twelve months. Since the creation of this list in 2017, Deutsche Bank's basket of stocks has outperformed the S&P 500, returning 167% versus the S&P's 124% gain. The full list of Deutsche Bank's updated basket is below, along with each company's ticker, market capitalization, price target, sector, and respective analyst commentary.
Persons: That's, Charles Schwab's Joe Mazzola, Dave Sekera, Diane Jaffee Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Nasdaq, Deutsche
But even bullish firms like Goldman Sachs agree that further upside is very limited. But some strategists think this year's robust rally has legs, including those at Goldman Sachs. Only one firm, Deutsche Bank, set an S&P 500 target that wasn't exceeded in the first half of the year. Though that bear case may sound compelling, Goldman Sachs doesn't buy into it. Below are those companies, along with the ticker, market capitalization, and upside to price target for each.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin Organizations: Investors, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan
But even as the dust settles from a string of government seizures of failed midsized banks, the forces that sparked the regional banking crisis in March are still at play. What is coming will likely be the most significant shift in the American banking landscape since the 2008 financial crisis. JPMorgan shares are up 7.6% this year, while the KBW Regional Banking Index is down more than 20%. Some of those pressures will be visible as regional banks disclose second-quarter results this month. "The fundamental issue with the regional banking system is the underlying business model is under stress," said incoming Lazard CEO Peter Orszag.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, Brian Graham, Banks, KeyCorp, Matt O'Connor, Peter Orszag, SVB, Chris Wolfe, Wolfe, you've, You've, Goldman Sachs, Lazard's Orszag, Orszag, Janet Yellen, Sen, Elizabeth Warren, Klaros, Graham Organizations: First, JPMorgan, Silicon Valley Bank, CNBC, Klaros, Deutsche Bank, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Justice Department Locations: First Republic, Silicon Valley, SVB, KBW, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Republic
July 10 (Reuters) - Billionaire activist investor Carl Icahn has amended the terms of his personal loans to separate them from the price of Icahn Enterprises' (IEP.O) depositary units, the investment firm disclosed in a filing on Monday. The move comes months after short-seller Hindenburg's criticism triggered a massive fall in the shares of his investment company. Icahn and its affiliates have entered into a three-year loan agreement with banks, including Bank of America, N.A. In the amended loan agreement, Icahn will provide additional collateral of $2 billion from his personal funds and 320 million IEP shares. It also said IEP units were inflated by more than 75%.
Persons: Carl Icahn, Icahn, Hindenburg, Jaiveer Shekhawat, Niket, Gursimran Kaur, Dhanya Ann Thoppil, Pooja Desai Organizations: Billionaire, Icahn Enterprises, Bank of America, Bank of Montreal, Deutsche Bank AG, Thomson Locations: Bengaluru
JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup, as well as Delta Air Lines are slated to post their latest quarterly results. Expectations for this earnings season are downbeat, with analysts forecasting a roughly 7% year-over-year drop, FactSet data shows. Thursday PepsiCo is set to report earnings before the bell, followed by a conference all at 8:15 a.m. Delta Air Lines is set to report earnings in the premarket, and management is slated to hold a call at 10 a.m. Friday JPMorgan Chase is set to report earnings before the market open, followed by a call at 8:30 a.m.
Persons: bode, Steve Powers, DAL, Leslie Josephs, JPMorgan Chase, JPM, Hugh Son, Wells Fargo, Wells, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Delta Air Lines, PepsiCo, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Deutsche Bank, PepsiCo —, Investment Group, FactSet, JPMorgan, Management Locations: America, U.S, Wells
A lawyer for Woehrmann said DWS' internal investigations "did not reveal any evidence of misconduct on the part of my client". A spokesperson for prosecutors in Frankfurt, where DWS is headquartered, would only say an individual was targeted but would not name the person. DWS declined to comment on Woehrmann, but has said that it stands by its financial disclosures and fund prospectuses and is cooperating with investigators. At present, we cannot estimate when and how the proceeding of the Frankfurt Public Prosecutor’s Office will be concluded," DWS said. Woehrmann resigned as CEO of DWS last year after German prosecutors raided the offices of DWS and Deutsche Bank in Frankfurt over the allegations.
Persons: DWS's, Asoka Woehrmann, Patrizia, Woehrmann, DWS, BaFin, Matthias Inverardi, Miranda Murray, Sabine Wollrab, Susan Fenton, Louise Heavens Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Frankfurt Public, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, Frankfurt
It leads to 22.5% weight loss, according to a Lilly trial published last year. The effect achieves far more weight loss than predecessors. An even earlier stage biotech firm, Antag Therapeutics in Denmark, told Reuters that the ballooning obesity market has improved its fundraising prospects. It curbs appetite by restoring the natural release of GLP-1 and other hormones, without causing nausea, Phase I data showed. The effect of the drug on weight loss is being tested in the Phase II study.
Persons: Rebecca Vogt, Handout, Wegovy, Vogt, Jayson Dallas, Noushin Irani, Mounjaro, Eli Lilly's, Lilly, Andrew Levin, Rivus, Mark Fineman, Ashish Nimgaonkar, Nimgaonkar, Alexander Sparre, Ulrich, Tim Opler, Opler, Stifel, Maggie Fick, Josephine Mason, Daniel Flynn Organizations: REUTERS, Nordisk's, Food and Drug Administration, U.S, Reuters, Rivus Pharmaceuticals, Investors, Deutsche, FDA, Pfizer, Capital Management, Rivus, Therapeutics, Johns Hopkins University, pharma, Antag Therapeutics, Aphaia Pharma, Thomson Locations: Irving , New York, U.S, GLP, Buffalo , New York, United States, Dallas, Baltimore , Maryland, Denmark, Switzerland
CNBC Daily Open: Jobs, jobs and more jobs
  + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Half a million jobsU.S. private sector companies added 497,000 jobs in June, according to payroll processing firm ADP. The ADP jobs report doesn't necessarily give a good estimate of the Department of Labor's jobs report. Worst days and lowest levelsU.S. stocks fell Thursday as traders grew concerned over what the scorching hot ADP jobs report means for interest rates.
Persons: Dow Jones, Janet Yellen, Yellen, Bitcoin Bitcoin, Larry Fink, Deutsche Bank's Maximilian Uleer Organizations: CNBC, Department, Treasury, U.S ., Treasury Department, BlackRock, Deutsche Bank's Locations: Yellen, China U.S, Beijing, China, U.S, BlackRock
A lawyer for Woehrmann said DWS' internal investigations "did not reveal any evidence of misconduct on the part of my client". A spokesperson for prosecutors in Frankfurt, where DWS is headquartered, would only say an individual was targeted but would not name the person. DWS declined to comment on Woehrmann, but has said that it stands by its financial disclosures and fund prospectuses and is cooperating with investigators. At present, we cannot estimate when and how the proceeding of the Frankfurt Public Prosecutor’s Office will be concluded," DWS said. Woehrmann resigned as CEO of DWS last year after German prosecutors raided the offices of DWS and Deutsche Bank in Frankfurt over the allegations.
Persons: DWS's, Asoka Woehrmann, Patrizia, Woehrmann, DWS, BaFin, Matthias Inverardi, Miranda Murray, Sabine Wollrab, Susan Fenton, Louise Heavens Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Frankfurt Public, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, Frankfurt
[1/7] Rebecca Vogt, a former user of the weight-loss drug Wegovy, poses for a photo, in Irving, New York, U.S., June 20, 2023. It leads to 22.5% weight loss, according to a Lilly trial published last year. An even earlier stage biotech firm, Antag Therapeutics in Denmark, told Reuters that the ballooning obesity market has improved its fundraising prospects. It curbs appetite by restoring the natural release of GLP-1 and other hormones, without causing nausea, Phase I data showed. The effect of the drug on weight loss is being tested in the Phase II study.
Persons: Rebecca Vogt, Handout, Wegovy, Vogt, Jayson Dallas, Noushin Irani, Mounjaro, Eli Lilly's, Lilly, Andrew Levin, Rivus, Mark Fineman, Ashish Nimgaonkar, Nimgaonkar, Alexander Sparre, Ulrich, Tim Opler, Opler, Stifel, Maggie Fick, Josephine Mason, Daniel Flynn Organizations: REUTERS, Nordisk's, Food and Drug Administration, U.S, Reuters, Rivus Pharmaceuticals, Investors, Deutsche, FDA, Pfizer, Capital Management, Rivus, Therapeutics, Johns Hopkins University, pharma, Antag Therapeutics, Aphaia Pharma, Thomson Locations: Irving , New York, U.S, GLP, Buffalo , New York, United States, Dallas, Baltimore , Maryland, Denmark, Switzerland
Investors have become "too complacent" in the calm before a potential storm for stock markets, according to Deutsche Bank's Maximilian Uleer. Stock market volatility is usually indicated through the VIX index and is often considered a barometer of fear and uncertainty in the market. Downside protection for investors Uleer also highlighted a number of opportunities for investors to lock in their gains for this year. In the illustrated example above, the portfolio would suffer a maximum loss of 3.41% even if the stock market declined further, not accounting for trading costs, by mid-December. Potential upside Despite the near-term risks, the market strategist pointed to the travel and leisure sector for upside potential.
Persons: Deutsche Bank's Maximilian Uleer, It's, I'm, Uleer, CNBC's Organizations: Deutsche Bank's, Stock, PMI, Deutsche Bank, Uleer, Downside, Airlines Locations: China, Europe, Refinitiv
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDeutsche Bank strategist: 'We're at exactly the point where the market is getting too complacent'Maximilian Uleer, head of European equity and cross asset strategy at Deutsche Bank, said he is surprised at how calm the stock market is despite a number of uninspiring data points out of Europe and China.
Persons: Maximilian Uleer Organizations: Deutsche Bank Locations: Europe, China
The U.S. economy has shifted from a "rolling recession" to a "rolling recovery," according to market veteran Ed Yardeni. Instead, it has experienced what the head of Yardeni Research calls a "rolling recession" — various industries being hit at different times since early last year. In addition, one unique factor influencing the U.S. economy is the large-scale fiscal stimulus, like the Inflation Reduction Act, implemented before an actual recession, according to Yardeni. When questioned about the strength of this recovery, Yardeni confirmed that he'd doubled his growth forecast for the second quarter. Don Mason | Tetra Images | Getty ImagesThe U.S. economy has shifted from a "rolling recession" to a "rolling recovery," according to market veteran Ed Yardeni.
Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, CNBC's, he'd, Don Mason Organizations: Federal Reserve, Yardeni Research, Goods, Consumers, Deutsche Bank Locations: U.S
Indicators like GDP and unemployment show the economy remains intact. But forward-looking indicators continue to point to an imminent downturn. Unemployment is still historically low at 3.7% as monthly job reports continue to post healthy gains, making forecasters look silly. He added: "Investors who over-rely on coincident data may be in for a rude awakening as restrictive rates continue to work their way through the economy." Below, we've compiled some of the forward-looking indicators that show a recession is brewing, or may already be underway.
Persons: Jason Pride, we've Organizations: Deutsche Bank Locations: Glenmede
MOSCOW, July 4 (Reuters) - RusKhimAlyans, a subsidiary of Russian gas giant Gazprom (GAZP.MM), has filed lawsuits seeking a total of 31 billion roubles ($348 million) from Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) and Commerzbank (CBKG.DE), Russian court documents show. RusKhimAlyans, in which Gazprom has a 50% stake, is seeking more than 22 billion roubles from Deutsche Bank and over 8 billion roubles from Commerzbank, according to the documents filed at the Court of Arbitration of St Petersburg and the Leningrad Region. In 2021, Linde and Renaissance Heavy Industries signed an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract with Gazprom and its partners for the Ust-Luga gas complex. Linde notified the customer in May and June 2022 that it had suspended work under the contract due to European Union sanctions imposed after Russia sent thousands of its troops into neighbouring Ukraine. ($1 = 89.0585 roubles)Reporting by Vladimir Soldatkin; Editing by David Goodman and Emelia Sithole-MatariseOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Linde, Vladimir Soldatkin, David Goodman, Emelia Organizations: Gazprom, Deutsche Bank, Linde, Renaissance Heavy Industries, Ust, Thomson Locations: MOSCOW, Commerzbank, Petersburg, Leningrad Region, Baltic, Ust, Luga, Russia, Ukraine
FRANKFURT, July 3 (Reuters) - Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) on Monday said that it had completed a fourth and final phase of a years-long technology integration process with Postbank. Germany's largest bank said it would result in cost savings in 2023 and 2024, with annual savings of 300 million euros ($326.52 million) from 2025. Germany's largest bank began acquiring Postbank, with its millions of clients and roots in the country's postal system, in 2008 during the global financial crisis, but it has struggled to complete its integration. Some customers did not have access to all services over the weekend as the bank completed the merger of its IT platforms with Postbank customers. Deutsche will now begin to decommission Postbank hardware and software, contributing to the cost savings.
Persons: Tom Sims, Miranda Murray Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Deutsche, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, Germany's
"We are positioned for a very big bond rally, and we think that risky assets are completely underestimating the risk of a recession or something nasty happening," he added. (.MERW0G1)An early sign that the bond outlook is improving came last week with data showing euro zone business growth stalled in June. In response, German bond yields, which move inversely to prices, posted their second biggest daily drop since March. But highlighting how hard economic data has become to read, higher-than-expected U.S. first quarter growth and German inflation sent yields surging on Thursday. Major central banks fighting a surge in inflation have collectively raised borrowing costs by over 3,750 bps since September 2021.
Persons: Jason Reed, Mike Riddell, Viraj Patel, Vanda's Patel, BoE, Urban, Jill Hirzel, Dhara Ranasinghe, Harry Robertson, Catherine Evans Organizations: U.S . Federal, REUTERS, Bond, U.S, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Reuters, Allianz Global Investors, Vanda Research, Deutsche Bank, General Investment Management, Insight Investment, Thomson Locations: Washington, hawkish, Canada, Britain, Norway, Sintra, Germany, United States, U.S
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