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Economists like to say the cure for high prices is high prices. In other words, consumers eventually start to hold back on spending when they are faced with increasing costs. On Monday, the New York Federal Reserve reported that consumers' three-year inflation outlook hit a record low. Many economists credit the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates starting in the spring of 2022 with helping to curb the upswing. It is that last factor that the Federal Reserve is keenly focused on.

Persons: “, Andrew Jassy, Wells Fargo, Mark Hamrick, ” Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve's, New York Federal Reserve, Federal, Fed, BLS, Gallup, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S, York

Wall Street is on edge heading into the July consumer price report after sharp stock swings this month reignited fears over the fate of the economy. Economists are predicting that inflation remained broadly unchanged in July — a reading that should allow the Federal Reserve to start easing the brakes on the economy next month by cutting interest rates. But a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the Consumer Price Index could intensify worries that the economy is moving quickly toward a more pronounced downturn, while a surprise acceleration is likely to rein in rate cut expectations that investors are already counting on to support the market. That leaves investors in search of an inflation “sweet spot,” Chris Larkin, head of trading and investing at E-Trade, said in a statement: “cool enough that no one will be second-guessing the likelihood of a September rate cut, but warm enough to push aside the recession concerns that have rattled the markets recently.”

Persons: ” Chris Larkin, ” Organizations: Federal Reserve

☆ Kamala Harris Has Shed Biden's Economic Record, Could Beat Out Trump
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Emily Stewart | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

When people say they're concerned about "the economy," it can mean a lot of things — grocery prices, gas prices, housing prices, healthcare. For one thing, it's not clear that voters think Harris, as vice president, has had much involvement in Biden's economic policies. People remember the Trump economy as a better time — interest rates were lower, prices were lower, houses seemed more affordable. AdvertisementThe task for Harris now is to lay out an economic identity and agenda before others beat her to it. The Trump campaign and the GOP are trying to tie her to the negative feelings around the Biden economy, to affordability and inflation.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Joe Biden's, Harris, Kamala, Donald Trump, Bill Clinton's, Jim Carville, —, it's, Biden, Trump, Harris — Trump, Evan Roth Smith, Smith, Eli Yokley, Mark Zandi, Tim Walz, Minnesota, Yokley, Whit Ayres, Donald Trump's, she's, He's, Bharat Ramamurti, Emily Stewart Organizations: Democratic, Republican, Financial Times, University of Michigan's Ross School of Business, Trump, Biden, Lake Research Partners, Democrat, Voters, Morning, Federal, Moody's, House, Democrats, National Economic, GOP, Business Locations: China, California, Las Vegas

☆ Reddit's increased reliance on Google traffic has Wall Street anxious to see if visitors sign up
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Jonathan Vanian | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

Reddit calls them logged-out users and, based on some industry estimates, they only monetize at about one-third the rate of logged-in users. The number of logged-out users surpassed logged-in users in the fourth quarter, and the gap has since widened. Logged-in users increased 31% in the second quarter to 42 million, while logged-out users increased at a much more robust rate of 74% to 49.2 million. Alan Gould, managing director at Loop Capital, said Google makes up "the vast majority of the logged-out users." By 2025, Reddit's logged-in users could represent an ARPU of $17.60 compared to $5.90 for logged-out users, Black said, based on the firm's estimates.

Persons: Spencer Platt, Tom Wahlin's, Hacker, Wahlin, we're, Lily Ray, Amsive, Ray, Reddit, Alan Gould, Daniel Konstantinovic, Konstantinovic, Benjamin Black, monetization, they'll, Reddit's, Black, Jen Wong, Wong, Steve Huffman, They'll, Huffman Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Getty, Aer, Google, U.S, Loop, Deutsche Bank, CNBC, AllGear Digital, YouTube Locations: New York City, U.S, Reddit

☆ World's largest sovereign wealth fund posts $138 billion in first-half profit as AI demand boosts tech
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Sam Meredith | In Samuelmeredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Norway's massive sovereign wealth fund on Wednesday posted first-half profit of 1.48 trillion kroner ($138 billion), primarily driven by robust returns on its investments in technology stocks. The so-called Government Pension Fund Global — the world's largest sovereign wealth fund — said it had a value of 17.75 trillion kroner at the end of June. Norway's sovereign wealth fund said its equity portfolio posted a return of 12.5% through the first half of the year, while its fixed income and unlisted real estate portfolios incurred marginal losses. It said higher capital costs had adversely affected the value of investments in the period from January to June. One of the world's largest investors, Norway's sovereign wealth fund was established in the 1990s to invest the surplus revenues of the country's oil and gas sector.

Persons: —, Nicolai Tangen, Tangen, NBIM's Tangen Organizations: Fund, Norges Bank Investment Management, Reuters

☆ Gold prices inch lower as U.S. inflation data looms
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices edged lower on Wednesday as investors remained on the sidelines ahead of a key U.S. inflation print later in the day that could set the tone for the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting. Gold prices edged lower on Wednesday as investors remained on the sidelines ahead of a key U.S. inflation print later in the day that could set the tone for the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting. Data on Tuesday showed that U.S. producer prices increased less than expected in July, reinforcing market view that cooling inflation will allow the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates soon. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he wants to see "a little more data" before he's ready to support lowering interest rates. Gold, often used as a hedge against geopolitical risks, thrives when interest rates are low.

Persons: Kyle Rodda, Raphael Bostic, Ismail Haniyeh Organizations: Federal, Fed, Federal Reserve, Traders, Atlanta Fed, Investors Locations: U.S, Iran, Gaza, Israel

☆ Mortgage refinancing surges 35% in one week, as interest rates hit lowest level in over a year
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Diana Olick | In Dianaolick | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

It appears to have taken a few weeks for current homeowners to realize mortgage rates had dropped dramatically. Applications to refinance a home loan surged 35% last week, compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted index. While rates dropped just 1 basis point last week, they were down 33 basis points in the past four weeks. They were also 62 basis points lower than the same week a year ago. Mortgage rates started this week essentially flat, but that could change with the release of the government's monthly inflation report, the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Persons: Joel Kan, Matthew Graham Organizations: Woodland, Lifestyle Homes, Mortgage, FHA, Index, Mortgage News Locations: Cold Springs , Nevada

☆ Dip buyers vindicated as CPI report revives economic 'soft landing' scenario
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This is the second day in a row that stocks have reacted with relief to an inflation report. The S & P 500 is now back to where it was just before the disappointing jobs report on Aug. 2. The S & P technology sector ETF (XLK) is also back to levels before the jobs report. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) has collapsed to 17 — also where it was just before the jobs report. Despite the growth scare that followed the jobs report, there are no signs of an imminent recession.

Persons: — Organizations: Federal, Treasury, Bloomberg News, Tech, Nvidia, Atlanta Fed Locations: Treasurys

☆ Social Security benefits aren’t keeping up with inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Tami Luhby | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

But the widowed 78-year-old now has to skimp on her meals because her Social Security benefits haven’t kept up with the rising costs for food, housing and health care in recent years. Social Security benefits have lost 20% of their buying power since 2010, according to a recent analysis by The Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group. Every January, Social Security recipients get an annual cost-of-living adjustment, known as a COLA, but the increases often don’t keep up with the actual rise in prices – hurting senior citizens, many of whom live on fixed incomes and depend heavily on their Social Security benefits. Social Security benefits have risen by 58% between 2010 and 2024, but the cost of goods and services purchased by typical retirees jumped 73% during that time, the league said. For Albrecht, it feels like her Social Security benefits have lost more than 20% of their buying power.

Persons: Janet Albrecht, haven’t, Albrecht, hasn’t, ”, Shannon Benton, That’s, “ Organizations: CNN, Security, Social, Social Security, Senior Citizens League Locations: an Indiana , Pennsylvania

☆ Annual inflation rate slows to 2.9% in July, lowest since 2021
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The consumer price index, a broad-based measure of prices for goods and services, increased 0.2% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.9%. Excluding food and energy, core CPI came in at a 0.2% monthly increase and a 3.2% annual rate, meeting expectations. The annual rate is the lowest since March 2021, while the core is the lowest since April 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics report. A 0.4% increase in shelter costs was responsible for 90% of the all-items inflation increase. Food prices increased 0.2% while energy was flat.

Persons: Joe Raedle, Dow Jones Organizations: Getty, Labor Department, Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: Miami , Florida

☆ These 4 Japanese stocks are trading at a 'deep discount': Bernstein
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Amala Balakrishner | In Amala-Balakrishner | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Japan's stock market has rebounded from last week's sell-off and investment firm Bernstein sees promise looking ahead, recommending a specific trading strategy and naming overweight-rated stocks. Both indexes have since recouped some losses, with the Topix and Nikkei ending 2.83% and 3.45% higher respectively on Tuesday. Below are four stocks from the investment bank's defensive screen, listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Stocks trading at a 'deep discount' Among the names on the bank's screen is video games company Nintendo . According to FactSet, analysts on average give Capcom over 19% upside, Keyence almost 24% upside and Bandai Namco 22.5% upside potential.

Persons: Bernstein, Rupal Agarwal, — CNBC's Michael Bloom, Charmaine Jacob, Arjun Kharpal Organizations: Nikkei, BOJ, Bank of, Tokyo Stock Exchange, U.S, Stocks, Nintendo, Capcom, Keyence Corp, Bandai Namco Holdings, Bandai Namco Locations: Bank of Japan, Japan

☆ UK inflation rose to 2.2% in July, after two months at the Bank of England's 2% target
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.K. inflation rose to 2.2% in July, coming in slightly below expectations but inching back above the Bank of England's 2% target, data from the Office for National Statistics showed Wednesday. The headline inflation had come in at 2% in both May and June, in line with the Bank of England's target rate. So-called core-CPI — which excludes food, energy, alcohol and tobacco prices — came in at 3.3% in July, down from the 3.5% print of July, the statistics office said. The data comes after the Bank of England earlier this month cut interest rates for the first time in over four years, taking the key bank rate to 5%. Uncertainty remains about when the central bank will cut rates again, and whether another cut will even take place this year.

Persons: BOE Organizations: Bank of England's, Office, National Statistics, Reuters, Bank of, Bank of England

☆ France's 'Olympics truce' ends, returning political tensions to the fore
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Tom Weller/voigt | Getty Images Sport | Getty ImagesTime is running out on the so-called "Olympic political truce" declared by French President Emmanuel Macron in late July, pushing the country's rocky political landscape back into focus. The left-wing New Popular Front alliance won the highest number of seats and prevented a much-discussed victory for the far-right National Rally. Meanwhile, Macron's own politics and allied government have been "widely rejected by the French," Massoc added, and no party will form an alliance with far-right National Rally. Even within the leftist grouping, parties are divided and some will refuse any sort of alliance with centrists, she said. Under the French political system, the parliament has relatively little power and between 2017 and 2022, 65% of texts adopted were laws proposed by the government rather than parliament, Massoc noted.

Persons: Emmanuel Macron, Tom Weller, voigt, Macron, —, tussles, Gabriel Attal, Lucie Castets, Elsa Clara Massoc, Gallen, Castets, Massoc, Les, Renaud Foucart Organizations: Stade de France, Olympic Games, Getty, Paris, Front, New Popular, National Assembly, University of St, CNBC, centrists, CAC, Lancaster University Locations: France, Paris, —

☆ Jefferies names 3 chip stocks to buy after the sell-off, giving all over 50% upside
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Amid a recent downturn in semiconductor stocks, Jefferies has identified three "top picks" in the sector, which it says present investors with a buying opportunity. The investment bank identified Dutch semiconductor toolmaker ASML and European suppliers to the chip making industry ASM and VAT as its top picks. This projected surge in demand is expected to positively impact a wide range of companies within the semiconductor industry. Jefferies expects "most semiconductor companies, including foundries, chip vendors, and front-end equipment suppliers, to beat and raise in coming quarters." The current downturn is not unprecedented in the cyclical semiconductor industry.

Persons: Jefferies, — ASML, Janardan Menon, SOXX Organizations: iShares Semiconductor, ASM, Jefferies, SOX Semiconductor Locations: China, U.S

☆ Dollar droops after benign inflation data; kiwi firm before RBNZ decision
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar remained on the back foot on Wednesday after tumbling versus major peers overnight as a benign reading for U.S. producer prices reinforced bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. Risk-sensitive currencies stayed strong after the unexpected softening in inflation buoyed equities, even with crucial U.S. consumer price index figures still looming later on Wednesday. New Zealand's dollar hovered near a four-week high ahead of a Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy decision, with markets split over the potential for a rate cut. The dollar was stable at 147.06 yen as it continued to consolidate around the 147 level this week. The kiwi edged up 0.07% to $0.6081, close to Tuesday's high of $0.60815, a level last seen on July 18.

Persons: CME's, Carol Kong, Sterling, Tony Sycamore Organizations: Australian, New, Reserve Bank of New, Traders, Federal, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, U.S, CPI, CBA, IG Locations: Reserve Bank of New Zealand

☆ Inflation milestone: Consumer Price Index slows below 3% for first time since March 2021
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

CNN —Price hikes slowed more than expected in July, and, for the first time in more than three years, the Consumer Price Index has landed below 3%. Consumer prices rose 2.9% for the 12 months ended in July, slowing from June’s 3% annual gain, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest CPI report released Wednesday. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.2% after posting a 0.1% decline the month before. Economists were expecting a 0.2% monthly increase and an annual rise of 3%, according to Fact Set consensus estimates. Core CPI inflation is now running at its slowest pace since April 2021.

Persons: CNN — Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics ’

☆ Inflation cooled in July, adding to the case for interest rate cuts at the next Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

It's the first time the inflation rate has been below 3% since March 2021, and it adds to the case that the Federal Reserve could cut rates at its next meeting. Over the month, the consumer price index rose 0.2% in July. The Fed is watching for inflation to cool before committing to rate cuts. Many economists think it's well past time for the Fed to cut interest rates and have expressed worries about the rapidly cooling labor market. AdvertisementThe labor market is cooling off, and it might be harder to get a job than a few years ago.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, Nick Bunker, Claudia Sahm, Powell Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, Core CPI, of Labor Statistics, Fed, North America, Bureau of Labor Statistics, New Century Advisors, Federal Reserve

☆ UK, U.S. inflation prints in focus as European markets head for higher open
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

LONDON — European stocks are expected to open higher Wednesday as investors in the region await key inflation prints from the U.S. and U.K. U.K. inflation data out on Wednesday will be the first print since the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points last month. After two months at 2%, economists polled by Reuters expect the headline inflation rate to tick higher, to 2.3%. Money markets are currently pricing in a high probability of more interest rate cuts by the BoE, amounting to 50 basis points this year. The central bank's key rate currently sits at 5%.

Persons: Germany's DAX, BoE Organizations: New Oxford, LONDON, CAC, IG, Bank of England, Reuters Locations: London, U.S

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Wall Street soars; Starbucks ousts CEO
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Abid Ali | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Wall Street soarsWall Street rose after producer prices came in softer than expected, raising hopes of a rate cut. Starbucks ousts CEOStarbucks surprised investors by replacing CEO Laxman Narasimhan with Chipotle CEO Brian Niccol, driving Starbucks' stock up more than 24% while Chipotle fell as much as 10%. Under Narasimhan's tenure, Starbucks' performance has struggled, marked by weak sales in the U.S. and China, its two largest markets. The latest inflation data strengthens the market's expectations of an interest rate cut at the Fed's September meeting.

Persons: Laxman Narasimhan, Brian Niccol, Chipotle, Niccol, Richard McPhail Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Treasury, Starbucks, Google, Gemini, Federal Reserve, PPI Locations: New York City, U.S, China

☆ Asia-Pacific markets continue winning run as U.S. producer prices rises less than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Asia-Pacific markets have extended gains on Wednesday after producer prices in the U.S. came in lower than expected for July. In Japan, business sentiment at manufacturers turned slightly less confident in August compared with the month before, according to the Reuters Tankan survey. The Tankan survey — which tracks the Bank of Japan's quarterly survey of the same name — showed that the sentiment index for manufacturers slipped to +10 in August, while the non manufacturers index fell to +24. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is also due to announce its latest decision on its official cash rate on Wednesday. Economist expectations are varied, with a Reuters poll forecasting the central bank will maintain rates at 5.5%.

Persons: Dow, — Organizations: Dow Jones, Reuters, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of New Locations: Ginza, Tokyo, Japan, Asia, Pacific, U.S, South Korea, China, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

☆ Treasury yields slip ahead of consumer inflation figures
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 3.929% after rising by 1 basis point. U.S. Treasury yields fell slightly on Wednesday as investors considered the latest inflation data and what it could mean for the economy and monetary policy. Treasury yields had tumbled on Tuesday after the producer price index increased 0.1% on a monthly bass in July, less than the forecast 0.2% rise. The wholesale inflation figure was released ahead of Wednesday's consumer price index. Investors will also be scanning the inflation figures for hints the outlook for interest rates.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, CPI, Federal, Traders, Fed

☆ The 'crazy' fix for Google's monopoly that investors are whispering about
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Alistair Barr | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The idea is that the US would require Google to make its Search index publicly available for anyone to use. AdvertisementBots and indexesA Search index is created by a bot crawling the web and collecting keywords and other information from sites. Related storiesGoogle's Search index is the biggest in the world. The Search index as part of the public commonsWouldn't this be taking something that belongs to Google, though? In the same way Bing powers DuckDuckGo, Google's open index could power other rival search engines that could offer different approaches to Google's search engine.

Persons: —, It's, wouldn't, it's, Amit Mehta's, Bing, DuckDuckGo Organizations: Service, Justice Department, Business, Google, Rivals, Mobile Virtual Network, Verizon, DOJ

☆ Dollar tenses for data verdict on rate cut risks
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The greenback was idling at 147.17 yen , having briefly touched a one-week high of 148.23 overnight before profit-taking emerged. More important will be the consumer price report and retail sales for July which could have a material impact on whether the Fed eases by 25 basis points or 50 basis points in September. The former outcome would likely lift Treasury yields and support the dollar, while the latter would have the opposite effect. The futures market clearly still sees recession as a risk with 101 basis points of Fed easing priced in by Christmas, and more than 120 basis points for next year. "Although the trend is moderating, inflation is too high for the Fed to justify the market pricing 100bp of rate cuts between September and year-end."

Organizations: Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Swiss, Atlanta Fed, ANZ

☆ Whoever can finally coin an effective economic message could win the White House
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Stephen Collinson | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

CNN —Voters keep telling pollsters that their economic insecurities are the biggest issue in the 2024 election. Former President Donald Trump will try to make a case against Kamala Harris’ role in the Biden economy on Wednesday in North Carolina. President Joe Biden dedicated his domestic agenda to restoring economic fairness and sought to revive manufacturing and repair the country’s crumbling infrastructure. As the effective incumbent in this race, Harris is vulnerable to any sudden shifts in the economic outlook. But with Trump seeking an opening to define her negatively — especially on the economy — Harris must act fast.

Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Biden, Trump, Joe Biden, Harris, Kamala, He’s, Price, “, Biden Administration’s, ”, —, ” Harris, ” Trump, hasn’t, “ You’ve, Scott Jennings, Anderson Cooper, “ You’re, Brad Todd, CNN’s Kasie, he’s, ” Todd, Kevin McCarthy, Elon Musk, Sen, JD Vance, Harris ’, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, Clinton, Obama, Obama –, –, — Harris, Tim Walz, She’s Organizations: CNN — Voters, Trump, Home Depot, Republican, Democratic, Biden, CNN, Fox News, Air Force, Democratic National Convention, NPR, PBS, Marist, New York Times, Siena College, Minnesota Gov, pharma Locations: North Carolina, Asheville , North Carolina, Maryland, Raleigh, Ohio, Chicago, Nevada, Phoenix, California, States, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin

☆ Investors are missing gains by passing on the market's least-loved stocks, investing legend Rob Arnott says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A portfolio of stocks booted from indexes would make an investor 74 times wealthier between 1991 and 2023, the research said. Authors Rob Arnott and Forrest Henslee announced the creation of NIXT, a fund that tracks deletions. The firm's founder and investing legend Rob Arnott and vice president Forrest Henslee wrote that stocks dropped by an index outperform for at least five years with remarkable persistence. After being deleted from an index, nixed stocks can outdo the market by an average of 5% a year. When an index decides to remove an asset, it's essentially creating excessive selling momentum, Arnott wrote.

Persons: Stocks, Rob Arnott, Forrest Henslee, —, Arnott, That's Organizations: Research Affiliates, Service, Nasdaq, Research

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