State legislatures across the country are enacting draconian abortion bans that are producing predictably tragic outcomes. It has become blindingly obvious what happens when Republicans legislate what Americans do with their sex organs. For years even before the fall of Roe, conservatives have used hard-edge anti-trans messaging in both red and swing state races, only to come up short. issues as a wedge in races in swing states from the Midwest to the Sunbelt to New England. The data suggest that opposition to trans rights cannot overcome — or possibly even make a dent in — the advantage that comes to Democrats in swing states for supporting abortion rights.

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