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☆ Investors are 'sleepwalking' into market turmoil and a recession early next year, top economist Steve Hanke warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Investors are ignoring the risks of market turmoil and a recession in early 2024, Steve Hanke warns. The full impact of the decline in US money supply hasn't been felt yet, he says. Hanke is worried about the federal debt, but doesn't see BRICS nations threatening dollar dominance. "I'm saying, 'No, we haven't seen the decline in the money supply hit the real economy yet,'" Hanke continued. "Money is a fuel that runs the economy, and we had a huge buildup of excess fuel," Hanke said.

Persons: Steve Hanke, hasn't, Hanke, Johns Hopkins, We're, Ronald Reagan Organizations: Service, Johns, Stansberry Research Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ More firms on Wall Street are bracing for a stock sell-off. Here's why JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and others say the market's huge gains are at risk.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Some Wall Street analysts are sounding the alarm for a coming sell-off in stocks. That comes as the S&P 500 enjoys its best year since 1927, gaining 18% from January. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. That comes as the S&P 500 enjoys one of its best years since 1927, largely thanks to Wall Street's excitement for artificial intelligence. But he sees the overall S&P 500 ending the year at 4,600-4,800, above current levels.

Persons: Eduardo Munoz JPMorgan, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Shannon Stapleton Wells, Scott Wren, Wren, Brendan McDermid, Rosenberg, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, REUTERS, Reuters BlackRock, Rosenberg Research, Dow Locations: Wall, Silicon

Sterling initially dropped, reflecting disappointment after traders had priced in a 30% chance of another 50 bp hike. Longer-term gilt yields, more responsive to investors' perceptions about the economic growth trajectory, rose by the most in a month. Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey attends a press conference for the Monetary Policy Report August 2023, at the Bank of England in London, Britain, August 3, 2023. Two-year gilt yields have risen by more than 120 basis points this year, more than double the increase of their U.S. equivalent. On Thursday, two-year gilt yields were down 5 bps in late trade, while those on 30-year debt rose 10 bps, the most in a month, to 4.66%.

Persons: BoE, Andy Burgess, Andrew Bailey, Sterling, we've, Bank of England Andrew Bailey, Alastair Grant, Jeremy Hunt, Carl Shepherd, they'll, juicier, Peter Goves, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: Bank, Bank of England, Monetary, REUTERS, Conservative, Newton Investment Management, Swiss, MFS Investment Management, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: AMSTERDAM, LGIM, London, Britain, U.S

☆ Stocks could see a sharp sell-off as the possibility of resurgent inflation threatens the FOMO-fueled rally, Wells Fargo says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Investors shouldn't chase the current FOMO-fueled rally in stocks, Wells Fargo warned. Core inflation accelerated 0.2% in June, and though payrolls rose by a less-than-expected 209,000 jobs last month, the labor market remains resilient, a factor that could potentially drive inflation higher. "If inflation's descent flattens out and reverses as interest rates rise higher, we believe the sectors that have driven this rally should be vulnerable to sharp pullbacks," Wren warned. Wells Fargo predicted the S&P 500 would end the year between 4,600-4,800. In addition to stubborn inflation, investors could also be slammed with a corporate earnings recession, Morgan Stanley has warned.

Persons: Wells, Wells Fargo, Scott Wren, Wren, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Service Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ CEOs made 272 times more than their workers in 2022, earning nearly $17 million on average
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

CEOs at 500 major firms make 272 times more than their workers, according to a new report. That's per the latest executive pay report from the AFL-CIO, which looks at S&P 500 compensation. On average, CEOs make $16.7 million, a $5 million increase over the last decade. Over the last ten years, CEOs' paychecks have swelled by $5 million on average — leading to average compensation of $16.7 million in 2022, according to the AFL-CIO's latest iteration of its annual Executive Paywatch report. On average, CEOs in that field make nearly $38 million.

Persons: paychecks, Duncan Crabtree, —, Brandon Rees, Rees, Insider's Jennifer Sor Organizations: AFL, CIO, Service, SEC, SAG Locations: Wall, Silicon, Ireland

☆ Bank of England caught between inflation fight and recession risk
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( William Schomberg | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A woman carrying a Union Flag umbrella stands near the Bank of England in the City of London, Britain, July 30, 2023. Analysts and investors are mostly expecting a quarter-point increase in Bank Rate, taking it to a 15-year high of 5.25%. But they also say they must quash an inflation rate that is the highest among major economies. INFLATION THREATBritish consumer price inflation fell by more than expected in June to 7.9% in annual terms, down sharply from 8.7% in May. Reuters GraphicsHOUSING MARKETThe most obvious impact of the increase in the BoE's Bank Rate from 0.1% in December 2021 to the current 5.0% has been in the housing market.

Persons: Adams, BoE, Andrew Bailey, Bailey, GfK, Sumanta Sen, Kripa Jayaram, Vincent Flasseur, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: Flag, Bank of England, City of, REUTERS, Analysts, Reuters, Nationwide, Halifax, insolvencies, Reuters Graphics LABOUR, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, BoE's, England, Wales, Germany

☆ Fed recap: Details from the Federal Reserve's July hike and Powell's market-moving comments
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

"We now believe that the Fed is on a prolonged 'hawkish hold,'" she said. "In our base case, their next move will likely be a cut but it will take until 2024 until we see it. That said, Powell will have no choice but to keep the threat of hikes alive, lest he encourage markets to prematurely price in cuts and re-ignite inflation expectations." "Indeed, throughout this coming extended pause, the risk to our base case will likely almost always be for one last hike to cement the disinflationary trend," she added. — Tanaya Macheel

Persons: Frances Donald, Powell Organizations: Fed, Manulife Investment Management

☆ Here's the inflation breakdown for June, in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The CPI is a key barometer of inflation, measuring prices of anything from fruits and vegetables to haircuts and concert tickets. Hourly earnings increased 0.2%, on average, from May to June after accounting for inflation, according to BLS data. 'Encouraging' inflation signals moving forwardThe inflation slowdown has been broad-based, Zandi said. watch nowGrocery price inflation is also down significantly from its peak around 14% last summer, which had been the highest rate since 1979. Economists say it's a near certainty that housing prices will continue to fall through the second half of the year.

Persons: Michael M, Mark Zandi, Zandi, we're, Mark Hamrick, Andrew Hunter, Ben Bernanke, Olivier Blanchard, Stephanie Roth, Roth Organizations: Lincoln Market, Santiago, Getty, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's, BLS, Capital Economics, Finance, U.S . Federal Reserve, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Morgan Private Bank Locations: Brooklyn , New York, U.S, Ukraine

☆ UK economy shows strains and gains, complicating Bank of England's job
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( William Schomberg | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

But the BoE is also aware that the economic impact of its 18-month campaign of rate hikes has yet to be felt fully. Below is a summary of key measures of the economy that the BoE will be watching before its next announcement on interest rates on Aug. 3. INFLATION THREATBritish consumer price inflation held at 8.7% in annual terms in May, down from a peak of 11.1% last October but the highest among the Group of Seven advanced economies. Reuters GraphicsINSOLVENCIESThere are signs that companies, especially smaller ones, are struggling as borrowing costs rise and the economy barely grows. Reuters GraphicsGraphics by Sumanta Sen, Kripa Jayaram and Vincent Flasseur; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: BoE, GfK, Sumanta Sen, Kripa Jayaram, Vincent Flasseur, Paul Simao Organizations: Bank of England's, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Nationwide, Halifax, Reuters, insolvencies, Wales, Reuters Graphics LABOUR, Thomson Locations: BoE's, Britain, England, Germany

☆ Stock futures are flat on Wednesday evening: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures were little changed in overnight trading following a losing session on Wall Street. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq-100 futures hovered around the flat line. The shortened trading week resumed Wednesday after a break for the Fourth of July holiday. The shortened trading week continues Thursday with a slew of fresh economic data points, including ADP private payrolls data for June and initial jobless claims. A reading of S&P Global services PMI and ISM services PMI are also on deck.

Persons: Powell, Malcolm Ethridge Organizations: Futures, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, JetBlue Airways, American Airlines, Spirit Airlines, Federal, CIC Wealth, P Global, PMI

☆ Disinflation will have a positive market impact in the near term: Vital Knowledge's Adam Crisafulli
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDisinflation will have a positive market impact in the near term: Vital Knowledge's Adam CrisafulliAdam Crisafulli, Vital Knowledge founder, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to discuss the day's market action, disinflation's impact on markets, and more.

Persons: Adam Crisafulli Adam Crisafulli Organizations: Vital Knowledge

☆ London stocks open lower on recession fears; homebuilders worst hit
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

SummarySummary Companies FTSE 100 down 0.2%, FTSE 250 off 0.4%June 23 (Reuters) - UK's benchmark indexes extended their slide on Friday, led by a decline in homebuilders, as investors' concerns over recession heightened following the Bank of England's outsized interest rate hike. The benchmark FTSE 100 (.FTSE) was down 0.2% at 0706 GMT, while the FTSE 250 (.FTMC) mid-cap index lost 0.4%. Both indexes were on track for their worst weekly drop since the U.S. banking turmoil in March. Retail sales, however, unexpectedly rose in May, suggesting most consumers were coping with rigid inflation's impact on their spending power. Reporting by Ankika Biswas in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-PhillipsOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: BoE, Ankika Biswas, Sherry Jacob, Phillips Organizations: Bank of England's, Federal Reserve, GSK, Thomson Locations: homebuilders, U.S, Norway, Switzerland, Bengaluru

☆ UK shoppers boost spending again despite inflation's squeeze
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( William Schomberg | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

But Friday's retail sales figures showed that, at least for now, British consumers were weathering the cost-of-living storm. "But our view is still that the growing drag on activity from higher interest rates will eventually tip the economy into recession, generating a 0.5% peak to trough fall in real consumer spending." The statistics agency said the one-off holiday to celebrate the king's coronation was not factored into its seasonal adjustments, meaning it helped to boost the sales volumes reading. Retail sales volumes in May were 2.1% lower than a year earlier. The Reuters poll of economists had pointed to a fall of 2.6% in sales volumes on an annual basis.

Persons: Sterling, King Charles, Ruth Gregory, Samuel Tombs, Heather Bovill, William Schomberg, William James, Catherine Evans Organizations: Bank of, Bank of England, U.S ., Office, National Statistics, Capital Economics, ONS, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Britain

☆ Americans’ buying power rose for first time since March 2021 amid falling inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Images By Tang Ming Tung | Digitalvision | Getty Images"This is clearly a function of inflation starting to come down," Terrazas said. 'Unprecedented' pay jumps during pandemicWage growth started to spike in 2021 as workers enjoyed the benefits of a hot job market. In some cases, workers' pay growth was strong enough to outrun inflation's impact — especially for those who quit their jobs for higher-paying gigs elsewhere. Meanwhile, wage growth has also declined but at a slower pace — translating to a net boost to Americans' financial well-being in May relative to last year. These data sets are more inclusive than that of wage growth.

Persons: Tang Ming Tung, Terrazas, Julia Pollak, Pollak, Mark Zandi, Aaron Terrazas, Zandi Organizations: ZipRecruiter, CPI, . Bureau, Moody's, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: U.S, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ Investors should ride this market rally to new all-time highs early next year by making these 10 investments now, according to 6 market strategists
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-19 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

If the S&P 500 can avoid a pullback, it could make a push toward its all-time high. Investors who weren't ready for the remarkable stock market rally of the last three months may not have completely missed out yet, according to several strategists Insider recently spoke with. While some top investing minds think this market rally isn't trustworthy, others are confident that the path of least resistance for US stocks is higher. He believes the S&P 500 is more likely to hit new highs in early 2024 than retest its Fall low of about 3,500. The S&P 500 is trading at roughly 19.2x forward earnings, he said, adding that equal-weighted funds have a forward earning ratio of about 15.5x.

Persons: Brad Bernstein, we've, I've, Bernstein, Jason Draho, Bernstein's, Draho, Jack Caffrey, Caffrey, Michael Sheldon, chartmaster David Keller, Keller, who's, David Keller, StockCharts.com, Brian Belski, Sheldon, Belski, that's Organizations: Federal Reserve, UBS Wealth Management, UBS Global Wealth Management, JPMorgan Asset Management, Fed, RDM Financial, BMO Capital Markets, BMO Capital Locations: US

Asia-Pacific markets are set to largely rise on Tuesday ahead of the U.S. inflation report and Federal Reserve's two-day meeting later in the day – the central bank is widely expected to hold rates for the first time in 15 months while inflation's annual outlook marked a two-year low in the latest New York Fed survey. Japan's Nikkei 225 is set to reach new 2023-highs – its futures contract in Chicago is at 32,795, and its counterpart in Osaka at 32,644 against its last close at 32,434. Australian markets come back from a public holiday with futures for the S&P/ASX 200 at 7,123, just slightly higher than the index's last close of 7,122. However, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index is set to snap a four day winning streak, with futures at 19,358 compared to the HSI's close of 19,404.31.

Persons: Hong Organizations: Fed, Nikkei Locations: Asia, Pacific, Chicago, Osaka

☆ Here's the inflation breakdown for May 2023, in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The CPI is a key barometer of inflation, measuring prices of anything from fruits and vegetables to haircuts and concert tickets. Where consumers saw inflation, deflation in MayConsumers saw gasoline prices decline 5.6% between April and May, according to the CPI report. "Energy prices at this time last year were just absurd," Leer said. watch nowBut food and energy prices can be volatile. "The progress on core inflation has stalled out in recent months," said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.

Persons: Michael M, Leer, Greg McBride, They're, Ben Bernanke, Olivier Blanchard Organizations: Lincoln Market, Santiago, Getty, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumers, CPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, U.S . Federal Reserve, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Bankrate Locations: Prospect, Brooklyn, New York City, U.S, Ukraine

☆ Restaurants grapple with a surge in beef prices
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Kate Rogers | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRestaurants grapple with a surge in beef pricesCNBC's Kate Rogers joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss surging beef prices, food inflation's impact on menu prices, and the forces driving the protein price hikes.

Persons: Kate Rogers

Since the release of their last economic projections in March, the unemployment rate has fallen and inflation has largely moved sideways. She expects the Fed to keep its policy rate steady this month "while hinting at potential further hikes," a way to compromise among different views and keep pressure on financial conditions. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and others insist that sort of erratic path is not their base case. The intent, rather, is to reach a "sufficiently restrictive" policy rate and remain at that level until it is clear inflation is falling towards the Fed's 2% target. "I do think they are done" with rate increases, he said, but "I cannot rule out another hike in June."

Persons: they've, Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO, Jerome Powell, Philip Jefferson, Larry Meyer, Ian Shepherdson, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Market Committee, Reuters Graphics Reuters, North, Fed, Consumer, Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Labor Department, Pantheon, Thomson Locations: U.S, North American, Washington

☆ Mega-cap tech dominance in the S&P 500 is obscuring investor bets that the US may already be in a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The jump in S&P 500's big tech stocks is masking concerns among investors that the US is already in recession, BlackRock Investment Institute says. The US has logged back-to-back quarters of contraction in gross domestic income. The S&P 500 has tacked on about 9% this year. Last week, the government said gross domestic income declined 2.3% in the first quarter of 2023 on a seasonally adjusted annual basis. Its aggressive series of hikes last year contributed to driving the S&P 500 down more than 18% last year.

Persons: —, Jean Boivin Organizations: BlackRock Investment Institute, US, Service, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Fed Locations: BlackRock, Germany, Europe's, U.S

☆ The AI boom shakes up stocks, disrupts tech, and could be on the brink of its 'iPhone' moment
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Over the last several months, I've turned to ChatGPT for research, book summaries, and even pasta recipes. It was only in March that Bank of America strategists declared that AI was on the brink of its "iPhone moment," and that it was about to change the world forever. In the stretches he's referring to, stocks appreciated 15% on average, and inflation's also declined, something that would be welcome news for the Fed right now. The giant's quarterly iPhone sales slowed last quarter, and shareholders may have to brace for another snag. Apple's "base business is stagnating and its high-margin apps platform could be disintermediated by ChatGPT plugins," Wood said.

☆ Britons face biggest tax rise since 1979, think tank says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Suban Abdulla | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, May 16 (Reuters) - Britons face the biggest tax-raising drive since the start of former prime minister Margaret Thatcher's term of office in the coming years as more people are pushed into paying the top rate of income tax, a leading think tank said on Tuesday. Britons pay income tax at a rate of 20% on income over 12,570 pounds ($15,865) a year and 40% on income over 50,270 pounds with a higher rate beyond that. Isaac Delestre, an IFS research economist, said inflation's recent surge was pushing up nominal earnings of many workers and dragging them into the higher tax rate bracket. The Conservative Party pledged not to increase income tax rates in its 2019 election manifesto. "A third of the expected record fall in household incomes this year is likely to be a result of this tax rise," the IFS said.

☆ Kellogg CEO Steve Cahillane joins Jim Cramer fresh off of quarterly earnings beat
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Kellogg CEO Steve Cahillane joins Jim Cramer fresh off of quarterly earnings beatKellogg CEO Steve Cahillane joins 'Mad Money' host Jim Cramer to discuss the companies quarterly earnings results, growth opportunities, and inflation's impact on sales and prices.

☆ Gold flirts with all-time highs as banking concerns deepen
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a workroom at Krastsvetmet precious metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia, January 31, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander ManzyukGold made another run toward record highs on Thursday as U.S. banking concerns accelerated a flight to the safe-haven asset and sustained its stellar rally driven by bets for a pause in U.S. rate hikes. Spot gold was up 0.3% at $2,045.79 per ounce after climbing earlier to $2,072.19, shy of a record high of $2,072.49. The Fed Funds target rate stands in the 5%-5.25% range, with markets expecting rate cuts in the second half of the year. In physical markets, lofty prices have tarnished gold demand in top Asian retail hubs.

☆ A $1.1 trillion investment chief shares her 3-part checklist for confirming a recession has started — and details 4 stocks she expects to outperform no matter what
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( James Faris | Akin Oyedele | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Nuveen investment chief Saira Malik is still forecasting a recession in the next year. Malik also shares four top stocks investors can buy to set themselves up for long-term success. "The consumer — which I would have said was holding up very well — I'm worried about tighter banking conditions, tighter banking credit on the consumer," Malik said. Additionally, the labor market is now showing cracks, even though the unemployment rate remains historically low at 3.5%. 4 stocks set to outperform in a downturnDespite her concerns about the economy, Malik doesn't see a massive market sell-off coming.

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