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Gold stalls as Fed caution keeps investors at bay
  + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Bars of gold are seen at the Krastsvetmet company, one of the world's largest producers of precious metals in Moscow, Russia on January 31, 2023. Gold prices were subdued on Wednesday as investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision, where the U.S. central bank is expected to stay put on interest rates, but prospects loom for further hikes later this year. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $1,929.86 per ounce by 0517 GMT, holding below its highest level since Sept. 5 reached on Tuesday. The Fed's rate-setting policy committee will release a new policy statement and interest rate decision at 1800 GMT, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to hold a press conference at 1830 GMT. A more hawkish Fed on the back of stronger-than-expected August U.S. CPI and PPI data released last week should see downside risk to gold prices, NAB Commodities Research said in a note.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Jun Rong, Janet Yellen, Wang Tao Organizations: Treasury, Fed, IG, CPI, PPI, NAB Commodities Research Locations: Moscow, Russia, ., U.S
Higher energy costs led to a bigger-than-expected spike in Canadian inflation, overnight data showed, lifting the loonie and triggering selling in the Treasury market. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields hit their highest since 2007 at 4.371% overnight and were last at 4.36%. The Fed meeting leads a week jammed with central bank meetings and data over the next few days. British inflation figures are due on Wednesday, followed by central bank meetings in Sweden, Switzerland, Norway, Britain and Japan on Thursday. Rising yields have kept a lid on gold prices, with spot gold last trading at $1,929 an ounce.
Persons: Brent, presser, Jerome Powell's, Sam Rines, Powell presser, Masato Kanda, Kristina Clifton, Miral Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Brent, Nikkei, U.S, STERLING, OF CPI, Bank of, New Zealand, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: presser China, SINGAPORE, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Texas, Sweden, Switzerland, Norway, Britain, U.S, China, Australia, Argentina
Canadian dollar gives back earlier gains on hawkish Fed
  + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
A Canadian dollar coin, commonly known as the "Loonie", is pictured in this illustration picture taken in Toronto January 23, 2015. The Fed held interest rates steady but projected another rate increase by the end of the year and monetary policy kept significantly tighter through 2024 than previously expected. "The U.S. dollar is climbing against its major rivals as Treasury yields push higher across the front-end of the curve, and risk-sensitive assets - from equities to the Canadian dollar - are weakening," Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay, said in a note. The Canadian dollar was trading nearly unchanged at 1.3450 to the greenback, or 74.35 U.S. cents, after trading in a range of 1.3396 to 1.3464. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, settled 1% lower at $90.28 a barrel, giving back some recent gains.
Persons: Mark Blinch, Price, Karl Schamotta, Fergal Smith, Nick Zieminski Organizations: REUTERS, Canadian, U.S, U.S . Federal, Fed, Bank of Canada, BoC, Thomson Locations: Toronto, TORONTO, Canadian
Our mission is the primary driver behind the CNBC FA 100 list, now in its fifth year, which ranks the nation's top financial advisor firms. The CNBC FA 100 highlights firms that help clients navigate decisions beyond their investment portfolio. However, "it's that volatility where I think the value of a CFP professional or a professional advisor really makes a difference," he added. It's that volatility where I think the value of a CFP professional or a professional advisor really makes a difference. 10 questions to ask your next financial advisor
Persons: we're, what's, Kevin Keller, Goldman Sachs, there's Organizations: CNBC, AccuPoint Solutions, SEC, CFP, Federal Reserve Locations: Northwestern, U.S
John Hussman says stocks are due for substantial losses amid high valuations. Here's Hussman's favorite measure of valuation: total market cap of non-financial-sector stocks-to-total revenues of those stocks. Hussman FundsAnother valuation measure Hussman likes is the Shiller cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio. Hussman Funds"Current market conditions create what we continue to view as a 'trap door' situation for the equity market. Another reason Hussman's outlook is so dire is that stock valuations remain high relative to where risk-free Treasury yields are.
Persons: John Hussman, Hussman, Here's, Warren Buffett Organizations: Hussman Investment Trust, Hussman, Fed, Treasury, America, Bank of America, Reserve
There's no indication that interest rates are too high, Leon Cooperman told CNBC. The billionaire investor also sees a return to this year's stock market highs as unlikely. "What's the sign that interest rates are too high?" "I don't expect we will see a new high in the market for a long time. "In 2000, everybody was hot on the internet: Cisco, Cisco, Cisco.
Persons: Leon Cooperman, Cooperman, We've Organizations: CNBC, Service, Omega Advisors, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Cisco Locations: Wall, Silicon, Georgia
Raindrops hang on a sign for Wall Street outside the New York Stock Exchange in Manhattan in New York City, New York, U.S., October 26, 2020. ET, for a snapshot of the U.S. economy, ahead of the keenly awaited inflation data scheduled for next week and the Fed's policy decision on Sept. 20. Investors will also parse comments from Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan later in the day. ET, Dow e-minis were down 76 points, or 0.22%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 11.5 points, or 0.26%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 50 points, or 0.32%. Reporting by Shristi Achar A and Amruta Khandekar in Bengaluru Editing by Vinay DwivediOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Mike Segar, Russ Mould, AJ Bell, Susan Collins, Lorie Logan, General Mills, Shristi Achar, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: Wall, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Companies, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Federal Reserve, Investors, Global, ISM, Traders, Boston Fed, Dallas Fed, Dow e, Apple, Alaska Air Group, Southwest Airlines, United Airlines, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, Russia, Saudi Arabia, China, Bengaluru
With U.S. crude oil prices rallying on Tuesday, Nolte also cited recent strength in oil prices as a damper to the Fed's efforts to push inflation back to 2%. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 29, 2023. The Dow Jones Transport index (.DJT) finished off 2.2%, weighed down by a slide in airline stocks as rising oil prices implied higher fuel costs. Shares of Airbnb (ABNB.O) rallied 7% while Blackstone (BX.N) added 3.6% on news that their stocks would join the S&P 500 index. The S&P 500 posted 12 new 52-week highs and 25 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 50 new highs and 142 new lows.
Persons: Blackstone, Christopher Waller, Paul Nolte, Murphy, Nolte, Sam Stovall, Brendan McDermid, Goldman Sachs, advancers, Sinéad Carew, Shristi, Arun Koyyur, Shounak Dasgupta, Richard Chang Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Monday, Monday . U.S, Treasury, Sylvest Wealth Management, Traders, Labor, CFRA Research, Dow Jones, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Transport, United Airlines, U.S, Blackstone, Oracle, Barclays, NYSE, Thomson Locations: Monday ., Elmhurst , Illinois, New York City, U.S, Saudi Arabia, Russia, New York, Bengaluru
Passersby are reflected on an electric stock quotation board outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan April 18, 2023. "They almost certainly have to hike again this year because today's inflation data shows there's still more work to do." INFLATION WATCHGovernment bond yields in the euro zone rose broadly after inflation data suggested the ECB may still have to hike rates again. Germany's two-year bond yields rose 7 bps to 3.09% . Spanish inflation rose 2.6% in August, as economists polled by Reuters had expected.
Persons: Issei Kato, Patrick Armstrong, there's, SEB, Elisabet Kopelman, Jerome Powell's, Naomi Rovnick, Shashwat Chauhan, Mark Potter, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, European Central Bank, ECB, Nasdaq, Wall, SEB Group, Fed, Reuters, Bank's, U.S, Treasury, Brent, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, Spain, North Rhine Westphalia, Germany's, United States, Gulf, Mexico, Bengaluru
On Wednesday, European shares nudged higher (.STOXX), while a gauge of Asian shares gained 0.35% (.MIAPJ0000PUS) and Japan's blue-chip Nikkei touched its highest in over two weeks (.N225). Spanish inflation rose 2.6% in August, as economists polled by Reuters had expected. Economists polled by Reuters expect the headline euro zone inflation rate to have moderated to 5.1% in August from 5.3% in July, still far above the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% goal. Euro zone inflation has exceeded the target level for two years. Germany's two-year yield rose 7 bps to 3.099% after regional Germany inflation data.
Persons: Issei Kato, SEB, Elisabet Kopelman, Jerome Powell's, Europe's, Sylvia Ardagna, Ardagna, Germany's, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Naomi Rovnick, Dhara Ranasinghe, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Nikkei, SEB Group, Fed, Reuters, Bank's, Barclays, ECB, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, SINGAPORE, Asia, Spain, Germany, North Rhine Westphalia, Germany's
REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsTOKYO, Aug 30 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar on Wednesday clawed back some of the previous session's sharp declines as investors looked ahead to more labour market data for clues on the path for Federal Reserve policy. The dollar index - which measures the currency against six major peers including the yen and euro - added 0.09% to 103.64 as of the Asian afternoon. On Tuesday, it had surged to a 10-month peak at 147.375 leading into the JOLTS report, only to end the day with a 0.45% decline. The Aussie dollar dipped as much as 0.46% after the data but eventually shook the data off to trade little changed at $0.64775. The Chinese yuan weakened slightly in offshore trading to 7.3002 per dollar, but remained well above the Aug. 17 low of 7.3490.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, pare, Matt Simpson, Simpson, Naoki Tamura, Jerome Powell, bitcoin, cryptocurrency, we're, Chris Weston, Kevin Buckland, Tom Westbrook, Lincoln, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Federal Reserve, U.S ., Treasury, Bank of Japan, Money, Fed, Reserve Bank of Australia, People's Bank of, Thomson Locations: People's Bank of China
Bank notes of the Australian Dollar lying on a table in Hamburg, Germany, 19 February 2016. The Japanese yen hovered around 146 per dollar following its overnight rebound from a 10-month trough at 147.375, as a drop in Treasury yields took away support for the U.S. currency. The Australian dollar dropped from near a two-week peak after inflation there cooled by more than economists predicted in July. The Aussie dollar dipped as much as 0.46% after the data before last trading 0.17% lower at $0.64685. The Chinese yuan weakened slightly in offshore markets to 7.2929 per dollar, but remained well above the Aug. 17 low of 7.3490 per dollar.
Persons: China's, Cryptocurrency bitcoin, Matt Simpson, Simpson, Jerome Powell Organizations: U.S, U.S ., Treasury, Money, Fed, Reserve Bank, People's Bank of Locations: Hamburg, Germany, U.S, Tuesday's, People's Bank of China
The Wall Street firm upgraded the 5-year securities, known as TIPS, to most preferred from neutral on Wednesday. The yield on 5-year TIPS hit 2.24% on Wednesday, the highest real yield the sector has seen in over 15 years, said Leslie Falconio, head of fixed income strategy in UBS Americas' chief investment office. TIPS yields account for inflation, but Treasury yields are nominal and don't take inflation into account. "While investors were confronted with historically high inflation, TIPS proved to be a disappointment as the interest rate component dramatically underperformed," she said. Those higher real yields also have been a contributor to rising nominal yields, she said.
Persons: Leslie Falconio, Falconio, Michael Bloom Organizations: UBS, Federal Reserve Locations: UBS Americas
The week ahead will "revolve around three things," Infrastructure Capital Management CEO Jay Hatfield remarked on the week ahead. "Nvidia's earnings, Nvidia's earnings and, to a lesser degree, Jackson Hole." Nvidia earnings Many investors expect Nvidia will beat expectations for the second quarter when it reports results next Wednesday . More commentary from Jackson Hole If Nvidia is the key microeconomic event next week, Jackson Hole will dominate macroeconomic discussion. Powell delivers his address at the annual central bank forum hosted by the Kansas City Fed next Friday morning.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Jay Hatfield, Jackson, Management's Yung, Yu Ma, Hans Mosesmann, Hatfield, Powell, Ross Mayfield, Ray Farris, Fed Governor Bowman, Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal, Infrastructure Capital Management, Dow, Nasdaq, Treasury, Fitch, Federal Reserve, BMO, Nvidia, Rosenblatt Securities, Infrastructure Capital Management's, Kansas City Fed, Fed, Infrastructure Capital, Credit Suisse, Richmond Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, PMI, New, Body, Devices, Autodesk, Chicago, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, Intuit, Ulta Locations: , Wyoming, China, Infrastructure Capital Management's Hatfield, Powell, . Kansas, Michigan
10-year Treasury yields are surging as the economy stays hot. For the first time since 2007, 10-year yields rose above 4.3% on Thursday after seeing a 31% surge since April. If or when that eventually happens, Treasury yields are likely to follow, presenting those who hold the assets with an opportunity. Bond yields fall when demand for the assets rise, pushing up their price. David Kelly, the chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, sees 10-year rates averaging 3.7% in the years ahead.
Persons: Gautam Khanna, Jason Draho, Lawrence Gillium, Craig Brothers, Brothers, Leslie Falconio, David Kelly, Kelly Organizations: Wall, Insight Investment, UBS Global Wealth, LPL, Bel Air Investment Advisors, Morgan Asset Management, Monopoly, Treasury Locations: Treasurys
FTSE 100 falls at open on BAE drag, hawkish Fed minutes
  + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
Signage for the London Stock Exchange Group is seen outside of offices in Canary Wharf in London, Britain, August 3, 2023. REUTERS/Toby Melville/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSummaryCompanies FTSE 100 down 0.4%, FTSE 250 off 0.3%Aug 17 (Reuters) - UK's FTSE 100 fell at open on Thursday driven by declines in defence stocks after BAE Systems slipped, while global sentiment turned cautious after minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's July meeting were perceived to be hawkish. The blue-chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) was down 0.4% by 0711 GMT, while more domestically focussed FTSE 250 (.FTMC) dropped 0.3%. Shares of BAE Systems (BAES.L) fell 3% after the British defence group said it agreed to buy Ball Corp's (BALL.N) aerospace business for about $5.55 billion in cash. Precious metal miners (.FTNMX551030) fell 0.9% as gold prices touched five-month lows on a stronger dollar and rise in bond yields.
Persons: Toby Melville, Siddarth, Nivedita Organizations: London Stock Exchange, REUTERS, BAE Systems, U.S, U.S . Federal, Bank of Georgia, Thomson Locations: Canary Wharf, London, Britain, U.S ., Bengaluru
A representations of virtual currency Bitcoin is seen in front of a stock graph in this illustration taken May 19, 2021. The central bank minutes from the July meeting cautioned that Fed officials see "upside risks" to inflation that could potentially lead to more rate hikes. At that meeting, Fed raised its benchmark interest rate to the highest in more than 22 years . The eventual debut of a spot bitcoin ETF, one of crypto's biggest positive catalysts, also lost some steam this week, he added. Several of the top crypto assets by market cap – including Binance's BNB coin , Ripple's XRP and the Solana and Polygon coins – were lower by more than 3% Thursday.
Persons: Fed, Bitcoin, Sylvia Jablonski, Needham's John Todaro, Ripple's XRP Organizations: Treasury, Metrics, Fed, CNBC, SEC, Solana Locations: U.S, Defiance,
US stocks closed lower on Wednesday after Fed minutes showed officials remain worried about inflation. Markets have been confident in their belief that the July rate hike was the last of the Fed's cycle. "The Fed wants to talk tough on inflation, but it's obvious they are done with rate hikes. "The July 26 rate hike was most likely not a one and done as the latest round of data suggests." The Fed will have another inflation report and another jobs report to sift through before it makes another policy decision.
Persons: Jamie Cox, Quincy Krosby Organizations: Service, Reserve, Harris Financial, LPL, Fed, Dow Jones, Nasdaq Locations: Wall, Silicon
The inverted yield curve and The Conference Board's LEI are two indicators that inform his view. Instead, investors should be paying attention to indicators like the Treasury yield curve, The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, and money growth. Here's the yield curve. And the start of a recession typically comes a bunch of of months after the yield curve inverts. The yield curve didn't invert until less than a year ago.
Persons: Bob Doll, LEI, Doll, Wall, — Bank of America's Michael Gapen, Michael Feroli —, we're, Louis, It's, Rosenberg Research's David Rosenberg, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Greg Boutle, Tom Lee Organizations: Federal Reserve, — Bank of America's, Crossmark Global Investments, BlackRock, Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Fed, Louis Investors, Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg, BNP, Institute for Supply, Institute for Supply Management, of Labor Statistics Locations: Wells
Investors should buy technology stocks ahead of a year-end rally, according to Wedbush's Dan Ives. Ives said Friday that the combination of solid second-quarter earnings and a less hawkish Fed should boost stock prices. "With the Fed waving the white flag on rate hikes, we see a green light risk-on environment into year-end," Ives said. "We firmly stick with our bullish call that a 12% to 15% [rally] in tech stocks will be in the cards heading into year-end as the new tech bull market has begun," Ives said. That strength in AI should help boost technology stocks, as should a less hawkish Fed.
Persons: Wedbush's Dan Ives, Ives, Dan Ives, headwinds Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Microsoft, Apple, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, Rome
This year, it’s largely been a different story, with bond yields rising on better-than-expected economic data. The S&P 500 (.SPX) has rallied over 16% from its March lows, despite a roughly 50 basis point increase in the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note over that time. That dynamic has changed in recent days, however, as Treasury yields have approached last year’s high while the S&P 500 has fallen 2% from its July peak. The bank’s analysts called rising yields "an underpriced risk" for the equity market. The S&P 500 fell 2.3% last week, its biggest weekly drop since March.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, it’s, Keith Lerner, Moody's, Peter Tuz, Refinitiv, Lerner, Matthew Miskin, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Grant McCool Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, U.S ., BofA Global Research, Advisory Services, Fitch, Apple, Chase Investment, John Hancock Investment Management, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, United States, China, Charlottesville , Virginia, Truist
This year, it’s largely been a different story, with bond yields rising on better-than-expected economic data. The S&P 500 (.SPX) has rallied over 16% from its March lows, despite a roughly 50 basis point increase in the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note over that time. That dynamic has changed in recent days, however, as Treasury yields have approached last year’s high while the S&P 500 has fallen 2% from its July peak. The bank’s analysts called rising yields "an underpriced risk" for the equity market. The S&P 500 fell 2.3% last week, its biggest weekly drop since March.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, it’s, Keith Lerner, Moody's, Peter Tuz, Refinitiv, Lerner, Matthew Miskin, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Grant McCool Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, U.S ., BofA Global Research, Advisory Services, Fitch, Apple, Chase Investment, John Hancock Investment Management, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, United States, China, Charlottesville , Virginia, Truist
What to expect from the Fed’s decision on rates
  + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks during an annual gathering of central bankers and economists in Wyoming next month could shed more light on what to expect for the September decision. There are three possibilities for what the Fed might do moving forward, according to economists: a second consecutive rate hike in September, one in November, or no more rate hikes after July. The Commerce Department releases the June reading of the Fed’s favorite inflation measure Friday. The Fed held rates steady for nine straight meetings over the span of a year the last time it paused a rate-hiking campaign in 2006. Nearly all of the Fed’s decisions have been unanimous since the central bank began lifting rates in March 2022, with the exception of two meetings early in the Fed’s current inflation battle.
Persons: it’s, Jerome Powell’s, It’s, haven’t, inflation’s, Ben Bernanke, Raphael Bostic, there’s, hawkish, “ Powell, ” Seema Shah, Powell, Christopher Waller, you’re, , José Torres, ” Powell, Jerome Powell Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, Fed, Commerce Department, Market Committee, Atlanta Fed, Asset Management, CNN, , The Labor Department, Interactive Locations: Washington, Wyoming,
What to expect from this week’s Fed meeting
  + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
After the Fed’s July monetary policy meeting, which concludes on Wednesday, investors will be looking for more details around that potential hike. That’s why the Fed is trying to retain the option of another rate increase in case inflation proves to be more resilient than expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks during an annual gathering of central bankers and economists in Wyoming next month could shed more light on what to expect for the September decision. There are three possibilities for what the Fed might do moving forward, according to economists: a second consecutive rate hike in September, one in November, or no more rate hikes after July. Whatever the Fed decides to do won’t come without a vigorous debate, and perhaps even a dissent, though the Fed has a tradition of collegiality.
Persons: , it’s, Jerome Powell’s, It’s, haven’t, inflation’s, Ben Bernanke, Raphael Bostic, there’s, hawkish, “ Powell, ” Seema Shah, Powell, Christopher Waller, you’re, , José Torres, ” Powell, Jerome Powell Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, Fed, Commerce Department, Market Committee, Atlanta Fed, Asset Management, CNN, , The Labor Department, Interactive Locations: Washington, Wyoming,
The U.S. Treasury started rebuilding its account through T-bills after the government's debt ceiling was suspended last month. Since early June, the Treasury General Account at the Fed has increased by about $460 billion. "The risk of reserve scarcity in the near-term has receded as more cash has left the RRP facility," said Gennadiy Goldberg, Head of US Rates Strategy at TD Securities USA. "However, money market funds shifted their allocation out of the RRP facility into outright purchases of T-bills and private repo markets," they said. Reporting by Davide Barbuscia; Editing by Dan Burns and Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Gennadiy Goldberg, Davide Barbuscia, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: YORK, Treasury, U.S . Treasury, Fed, Federal, Securities USA, Citi, repo, ON, Thomson Locations: U.S
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