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—Katie Stockton with Will Tamplin Access research from Fairlead Strategies for free here . Fairlead Strategies Disclaimer: This communication has been prepared by Fairlead Strategies LLC ("Fairlead Strategies") for informational purposes only. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this information must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed absent the written consent of Fairlead Strategies.
Persons: Katie Stockton Organizations: Micron Technology, Inc, MU, Fairlead, CNBC Pro, Securities
After reaching the 4,700 level in mid-December, the S & P 500 has essentially been rangebound between 4,700 and 4,800. While the S & P 500 has remained rangebound, the NYSE advance-decline line (second panel) has already broken to a new swing low. The next panel shows the percentage of S & P 500 members that are trading above their 50-day moving average. Finally, we have the S & P 500 Bullish Percent Index, which reveals the percentage of S & P 500 members that are currently showing a bullish signal on their point & figure charts. I'd need to see a breakdown below S & P 500 4,450 before I'd begin to really question that thesis.
Persons: We've, I'd, David Keller Organizations: NYSE, Nasdaq, David Keller https
Some closely watched momentum indicators and a bullish overall chart suggest popular AI chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices is headed for new highs in the near future. The stock hit a new 52-week high and now sits 3.6% below the stock's all-time high of $164.46 set in the fourth quarter of 2021. Many chart analysts expect the stock to blow past that level in the near future. "Anytime a stock makes a new all-time high, it tells me something special is taking place with the company," said JC O'Hara, chief technical strategist at Roth Capital Partners. "Investors should be positioned in these risk stocks that typically outperform in a rising market environment and AMD checks that box," he said.
Persons: Dan Wantrobski, Janney Montgomery Scott, JC O'Hara, Wantrobski, Capital's Todd Gordon, Oppenheimer's Ari Wald Organizations: Devices, AMD, Roth Capital Partners, Nasdaq
I was surprised this week to note the large number of health-care names represented on the new highs list. Here are three stocks in the health-care sector that could provide further upside potential based on their improving technical characteristics. That all changed in November, when BSX finally broke above this well-established resistance level, pushing into the upper $50s this month. From November 2022 to June 2023, AMGN dropped from around $295 to $215, shedding about 27% of its value in just seven months. With any breakouts like this one, it's important to watch the previous resistance level which often serves as price support going forward.
Persons: I've, BSX, Stryker, SYK, AMGN, David Keller Organizations: Boston, Stryker Corp, Inc, David Keller https
Cracks are beginning to appear in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index . I have shown a chart of Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) which is an ETF that tracks the Nasdaq 100. Finding a stock to put on a bearish trade The stock I have picked for a bearish trade is Netflix (NFLX) . Starting Nov. 29, NFLX price candles are forming lower highs and lower lows, which is the easiest way to spot a downtrend. The trade structure I am using here is called a "bear put spread" also known as a "put debit spread".
Persons: NFLX, Nishant Pant Organizations: Netflix, Trade Management
Dollar rises, recouping losses from strengthened Fed rate cut bets
  + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The dollar index, which tracks the currency against six major peers, rose by 0.4% to 103.71, while the euro was last down nearly 0.5% at $1.0828. "I think it's the fact that U.S. policy rate expectations have gone too far and will unwind more in December than rate expectations elsewhere," said Colin Asher, senior economist at lender Mizuho in London. "November was... a very poor month for the U.S. dollar, in part driven by expectations of easier Fed policy," Asher said. The dollar was trading higher against the yen at 147.34, after falling to 146.24 in the Asian session, its lowest since mid-September. "A steady USD decline needs more than just an expectation of Fed rate cuts, it also needs strong growth outside of the U.S. which doesn't seem to be the case currently," said Charu Chanana, market strategist at Saxo Markets.
Persons: Colin Asher, Asher, Sterling, Jerome Powell, Charu, denting, Christine Lagarde Organizations: Federal Reserve, Mizuho, U.S ., Saxo Markets, European Central Bank Locations: London, Germany
Historically, November is the best month of the year for the stock market, and December is third, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. Under the surface this week, we also saw signs of a possible market rotation in the works. Rotation watch : We must look to next week's trading for confirmation that we're in the grips of a rotation or simply a head fake. Signs of the former were on display this week as the two of the biggest sector winners of the year, communication services and technology , trailed the market. Jobs, jobs, jobs : The most important release of the week comes Friday in the form of the November nonfarm payrolls report.
Persons: Jerome Powell, That's, Locker, it's, Hock Tan, We'll, Joann, JOAN, JM Smucker, OLLI, Campbell Soup, Brown, Forman, LULU, Smith, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Spencer Platt Organizations: Wall, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Broadcom, Marvell Technology, Cisco Systems, VMWare, Club, PMI, Labor, Signet Jewelers, SIG, Brands, Toll, Thor Industries, Natural Foods, GameStop, Vail Resorts, MTN, Smith & Wesson, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: Asana, ASAN, New York City
Asia stocks closing in on strongest month since January
  + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Kane Wu | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
A man is reflected on an electric stock quotation board outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan April 18, 2023. The MSCI Asia-ex-Japan stocks index (.MIAPJ0000PUS) is up 6.7% so far this month, setting it on course to mark the best month since January. South Korea's KOSPI (.KS11) has led the rally in Asia with 10.5% gains this month, followed closely by Taiwan (.TWII) and Japan's Nikkei Average index (.N225). Ten-year U.S. yields are down more than 60 basis points in November, on track for the steepest monthly drop since late 2008. U.S. financial conditions are the loosest since early September and have eased 100 basis points in a month, according to Goldman Sachs.
Persons: Issei Kato, Korea's, Christopher Waller, Waller, Redmond Wong, Goldman Sachs, J.P.Morgan, Brent, Kane Wu, Vidya Ranganathan, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Fed, Stock, U.S, Wednesday, Saxo Markets, Organization of, Petroleum, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, HONG KONG, U.S, Asia, Taiwan, Greater China, China, Russia, Hong Kong
"Immaculate disinflation" is becoming a reality, according to Nobel economist Paul Krugman. Inflation coming down without sparking a recession is a dream scenario for Wall Street. By a number of metrics, the economy is better off than it was a few years ago, Krugman said. AdvertisementWall Street's dream scenario is becoming a reality – and despite gloomy sentiment in pockets of the market, the economy is actually doing way better than people think, according to Nobel laureate Paul Krugman. But slowing inflation hasn't triggered a rise in unemployment or the start of a recession, pushing Wall Street closer to its dream scenario.
Persons: Paul Krugman, Krugman, , Joe Biden Organizations: Service, Commerce Department, New York Times, Bank of America, RBC Capital Markets, Deutsche Bank
A bitcoin is seen in an illustration picture taken at La Maison du Bitcoin in Paris, France, June 23, 2017. Anticipation of easing U.S. borrowing costs and a possible U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund have lifted crypto prices since the summer, with market bitcoin gaining by about half since the end of August. Ether , the layer 1 token linked to the Ethereum blockchain on which most layer 2 tokens are based, has leapt 13.8% to $2,028.80 in the past month. They are often among the last ones to catch a bid when broader crypto market rises and among the first ones to sell off when sentiment is shaken. Numerous projects and their tokens were launched as the crypto market boomed in 2020, before sinking during the crypto winter of 2022.
Persons: Benoit Tessier, It's, Matteo Greco, Joshua Peck, Peck, Alyse Killeen, Fineqia International's, Lisa Mattackal, Medha Singh, Tom Wilson Organizations: La Maison du, REUTERS, Fineqia, Reuters, Thomson Locations: La, Paris, France, U.S, Stillmark, Bengaluru
A woman picks a gold earring at a jewellery shop in the old quarters of Delhi, India, May 24, 2023. While India's gold demand has been solid so far in 2023, matching strength in the domestic economy, it appears that some momentum may be coming out of the market. The high price of gold for consumers in China may further crimp demand in the fourth quarter, after the World Gold Council reported a decline in third. The recent price rally is likely to trim demand growth in India in the current quarter. But countering the positive drivers are signs that high prices are undermining demand growth in the key markets of China and India.
Persons: Anushree, they're, Hong Kong, Sonali Paul Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S . Federal Reserve, Hong, Hong Kong Census, Statistics Department, Gold, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Delhi, India, Rights LAUNCESTON, Australia, China, Hong Kong, Hong, Central
The stock market could have 23% upside if a key technical level is breached, according to Bank of America. BofA analyst Stephen Suttmeier said a decisive break above 4,600 for the S&P 500 would confirm a bullish chart pattern. AdvertisementA continuation of bullish technical trends in the stock market could catapult the S&P 500 higher by as much as 23% from current levels, according to Bank of America. The S&P 500 traded just above 4,550 on Monday. To fuel the potential stock market upside, Suttmeier said asset managers have plenty of buying power left.
Persons: Stephen Suttmeier, , Suttmeier Organizations: Bank of America, Service, Bank of America . Bank, Nasdaq
"Our view is very clear," Kinger Lau, Goldman Sachs chief China equity strategist, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" on Tuesday. China rebalancingWith just under six weeks of the year remaining, the MSCI China and CSI 300 indexes are both poised for third-straight annual losses. Goldman Sachs noted both mutual and hedge fund mandates globally are running with multi-year low allocations in Chinese stocks. Key changesIn their latest outlook paper, Goldman Sachs strategists upgraded the food and beverage sector to overweight from market weight and technology hardware sector to overweight from underweight. Real estate has been a key driver of the downturn in the Chinese economy after Beijing started cracking down on the debt levels of mainland developers in 2020.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Kinger Lau, CNBC's, it's, Lau Organizations: Getty, 20th Central Committee, Chinese Communist Party, CSI Locations: Beijing, China
U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Against the weaker greenback, the euro hit its highest since August at $1.09365, while the yen firmed at a one-month high of 148.68 per dollar. The Japanese yen remained on the stronger side of 150 per dollar and was last 0.3% higher at 149.17. The onshore yuan rose 0.5% to an over three-month high of 7.1700 per dollar, while the offshore yuan similarly got a boost and jumped roughly 0.6% to an over three-month top of 7.1703 per dollar. The Aussie was last 0.5% higher at $0.6546, having struck a three-month high of $0.6563 earlier in the session, while the kiwi gained 0.54% to $0.6025.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Carol Kong, Vishnu Varathan, CBA's, Rae Wee, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, New Zealand, Fed, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Treasury, ., Mizuho Bank, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, Asia, China
The yuan struck three-month highs in both the onshore and offshore markets, propped up by China's central bank, while the Australian dollar similarly scaled a three-month top against the falling greenback. "If we do see risk appetite improve again, then the dollar can definitely weaken further." Against the weaker dollar, the euro rose to an over two-month high of $1.0924, ahead of flash PMI readings in the euro zone due later this week. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar edged roughly 0.5% higher to $0.6546, its strongest level since August, while the New Zealand dollar rose 0.52% to $0.60235. The onshore yuan rose 0.5% to an over three-month high of 7.1753 per dollar, while the offshore yuan similarly got a boost and jumped roughly 0.6% to an over three-month top of 7.1745 per dollar.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Carol Kong, Sterling, Vishnu Varathan, CBA's, Rae Wee, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Fed, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Treasury, ., Mizuho Bank, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, Asia, China
Chartbook: Oil and gas positionsAs in previous weeks, sales in the most recent week were led by crude (-16 million barrels), especially NYMEX and ICE WTI (-11 million), with some extra sales in Brent (-5 million). Funds held a larger position of 171 million barrels in Brent, but that was in only the 28th percentile, still significantly bearish. Funds purchased 9 million barrels over the seven days ending on Nov. 14 and had purchased a total of 25 million barrels since Oct. 17. The net position had doubled to 51 million barrels (46th percentile) on Nov. 14 up from 26 million barrels (19th percentile) four weeks earlier. Related columns:- U.S. gasoline stocks add to crude oil turbulence (November 17, 2023)- U.S. oil prices slide as stocks accumulate at Cushing (November 16, 2023)- Oil traders turn bearish, daring OPEC⁺ to cut again (November 14, 2023)- Oil prices slump as fundamentals reassert themselves (November 9, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.
Persons: John Kemp, Barbara Lewis Organizations: ICE, Funds, ICE WTI, Fund, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Brent, NYMEX, Saudi Arabia, Russia, bearishness, United States, Cushing
Both numbers topped estimates, and still the stock fell after hours, trading below $240 a share as of this writing. At nearly 9 times revenues and 45 times forward earnings estimates, PANW is not a cheap stock, moreover it is still up sharply on the year, and outperforming considerably. Stock replacement strategy One possibility is a stock replacement, selling one's stock holding and replacing that exposure with options. By using a call spread one can maintain some exposure to the upside in the event the stock bounces back. PANW YTD mountain Palo Alto Networks (PANW) CSCO on the other hand, by some measures at least, is a cheap stock, at just 13 times earnings.
Persons: PANW, we've, CSCO, Chuck Robbins, Scott Herren, ANET Organizations: Palo Alto Networks, Cisco, Verizon, Mobile, Comcast, Arista Networks, Broadcom, Flex, Nvidia, CNBC Locations: Palo
Chinese stocks too have done poorly. 'High confidence in the tradable value' While the Chinese economy "is not very strong," Wong has "high confidence in the tradable value," of Chinese stocks. Stocks to play Goldman is overweight on several sectors including online retail, media/entertainment, tech hardware, health care equipment and services and food & beverage. Other stocks the investment bank sees outperforming "as the China growth story evolves" include internet services provider NetEase , technology hardware manufacturer Xiaomi , and manufacturing conglomerate BYD . China-focused ETFs Elsewhere, Saxo's Wong has his eye on the new infrastructure (such as 5G technology), industrial technology and agricultural technology themes.
Persons: Redmond Wong, Wong, Goldman Sachs, Stocks, Goldman, Saxo's Wong, — CNBC's Michael Bloom, Clement Tan Organizations: Shenzhen Component, Saxo, CNBC, National Bureau of Statistics, Tech, Baidu, Galaxy Entertainment, Mining, China Resources Beer, Miniso, Hong Kong Exchange, CSI Agriculture, CSI 5G Communications, CSI Technology, Enterprises Locations: Shenzhen, China, Taiwan, India, South Korea, Brazil, Mexico
Overnight the Nasdaq (.IXIC) jumped 2.4%, bonds surged and the dollar slumped more than 1.6% on the euro. Yields fall when bond prices climb. In foreign exchange trade, the dollar suffered its heaviest selling in 12 months, with the sharpest losses against risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar. In Japan, the Bank of Japan stepped back and pared its regular bond buying as markets rallied. Ten-year Japanese government bond yields hit a one-month low of 0.775%.
Persons: Androniki, Sam Rines, Chetan Seth, Brent Donnelly, Tom Westbrook, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Nikkei, REUTERS, Nasdaq, Federal, CPI, Japan's Nikkei, New Zealand, Nomura, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, Texas, U.S, Canada
DMI (Directional Movement Index): DMI is composed of 3 lines, DI+ (green line), DI- (red line) and ADX (blue line). When the DI- (red line) is above the DI+ (green line), it indicates a downtrend which is what XLE is experiencing at the moment. Note that both DI- and DI+ are changing direction which provides further confirmation that XLE is turning around. THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.
Persons: , XLE Organizations: SPDR Energy, Exxon Mobil, Natural Resources, Valero Locations: oversold, Chevron, XLE
As airlines continue to add capacity after a year of record demand for revenge travel, consumer demand after the pandemic is showing signs of slowing. Airline stocks have already lost about a third of their value in the last three months, yet hotel shares have held up fairly well. If we look at the implied volatility of MAR options, it isn't particularly high, however the skew between at-the-money options and out-of-the-money options are quite high and provide a unique opportunity to sell a neutral to bearish call spread. I'm looking out to the Dec 22 Weekly expiration to sell the $195/$205 call vertical spread. (Reminder a vertical spread involves buying or selling options with same expiration but different strikes.)
Persons: it's Organizations: NYSE, Marriott Locations: Europe, Asia
Morning Bid: Rate cut prospects fuel stock rally
  + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Nov 6 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. It's been an upbeat start to the week in Asia as markets cast aside concerns about rate hikes, and go straight to pricing in early cuts. Futures imply an 80% probability the ECB will begin easing as soon as April, and the first BoE rate cut is almost fully priced for August. An outlier here is the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) which might well resume hiking on Tuesday after four months of steady policy outcomes. But expectations were already so low that it's the dollar that has all the downside in the disappointment stakes.
Persons: Wayne Cole, It's, BoE, Ueda, Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Huw Pill, Lisa Cook, Sam Holmes Organizations: Federal, ECB, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia, Atlanta, EU, Bank of England, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: Wayne, Asia, South Korea, Europe
UK pound coins plunge into water coloured with the European Union flag colours in this illustration picture, October 26, 2017. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 6 (Reuters) - The pound rose on Monday, extending the previous week's rally, as a slide in U.S. bond yields continued to weigh on the dollar. Sterling was last up 0.23% at $1.2409, trading at its highest in more than a month after posting its best weekly performance in a year last week with a rise of 2.1%. The Bank of England also held interest rates, at a 15-year high of 5.25%, last week as it painted a gloomy picture of the UK economy. Gross domestic product data, due on Friday, is expected to show the UK economy shrank 0.1% in the third quarter after growing 0.2% in the three months to June.
Persons: Dado, Sterling, Francesco Pesole, Harry Robertson, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: European Union, REUTERS, U.S, Federal Reserve, ING, Graphics Sterling, Financial, Bank of, Gross, Thomson Locations: U.S, American, Bank of England
SHANGHAI, China (Reuters) -China will further expand market access and increase imports, its premier told a trade fair in Shanghai on Sunday, amid criticism from European firms who said they wanted to see more tangible improvement in the country’s business environment. China will promote coordinated development of trade in goods and services, protect an international business environment, and relax market access including lifting restrictions on foreign investment in manufacturing, he said. The import expo was launched by President Xi Jinping in 2018 to promote China’s free trade credentials and counter criticism of its trade surplus with many countries. China’s imports have slumped this year amid a slowdown in the world’s second largest economy, although data released last month indicated that the downtrend could be starting to ease. China will “actively promote” its application to join the Comprehensive Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), Li also said in his speech on Sunday.
Persons: Li Qiang, Tingshu Wang, ” Li, Xi Jinping, Li, Anthony Albanese, Organizations: Hangzhou Olympic Sports Centre, China, European Chamber of Commerce, Micron Technology, Nestle, Burberry, Australian, Pacific Locations: SHANGHAI, China, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Afghan, Australia, United States, Taiwan, Ukraine, Costa Rica, Uruguay, Ecuador, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam, Britain
Two of the semiconductor stocks that reported this week saw some big post-earnings moves and substantially above-average options trading activity. Among the biggest winners were Wolfspeed Inc. (WOLF) and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) . AMD WOLF 5D mountain AMD vs Wolfspeed, 5 days Are options markets aligned with these spikes or fading them using them as opportunities to initiate new bearish positions? Betting against Wolfspeed Wolfspeed popped sharply after a modest topline beat. Betting on AMD Unlike WOLF, AMD was up over 50% year-to-date going into the print so the pop wasn't a short-covering rally.
Persons: Wolfspeed, Roth MKM, Canaccord Genuity, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Wolfspeed Inc, Devices Inc, AMD, Carbide, JPMorgan, Citi, Deutsche Bank, WOLF, Management, Nvidia, supercomputing
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