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☆ Bond investors expect smaller Fed rate hike but brace for inflation shocks
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Davide Barbuscia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The less aggressive stance - which followed better-than-expected consumer price data in October - fueled a bond rally over the past month. Fresh data on inflation will come with the release of the November Consumer Price Index on Tuesday, one day before the Fed's policy decision will be announced. Fed funds futures traders on Friday were pricing in a 93% probability of a 50 basis points rate hike this month, which would bring the Fed's policy rate to a 4.25%-4.5% range. As of September, Fed's policymakers saw the fed funds rate ending 2023 at 4.6%. Therefore, I have to believe that 10-year Treasury yields are probably too low," he said.

☆ U.S. producer prices increase in November; trend slowing
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The report from the Labor Department on Friday also showed underlying producer prices increasing at their slowest pace since April 2021 on a year-on-year basis. "Easing producer prices foreshadow an improving inflation environment," said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina. However, the monthly increase in producer prices illustrates the need for continued tightening." A 3.3% increase in food prices was offset by a 3.3% drop in energy costs. Excluding the volatile food, energy and trade services components, producer prices gained 0.3% in November.

☆ European shares rise as industrials, financials gain on China optimism
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Amruta Khandekar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The ECB may raise rates by 50 basis points next week, according to a Reuters poll, following two straight 75 basis point increases. Industrial stocks such as Siemens AG (SIEGn.DE) were among the biggest boosts to the index, while some China-exposed financials such as Prudential Plc (PRU.L) also rose. Energy stocks (.SXEP) led sectoral declines, falling 0.4% dragged down by a fall in shares of heavyweights such as Shell Plc and BP Plc (BP.L). Credit Suisse shares rose nearly 3% after the embattled bank hailed a "milestone" in its turnaround plan on Thursday after raising 2.24 billion Swiss francs ($2.39 billion) as part of a 4 billion franc cash call. Reporting by Amruta Khandekar; Editing by Vinay Dwivedi and Saumyadeb ChakrabartyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ ECB to raise deposit rate by 50 bps on Dec 15 as bloc enters winter recession: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

According to the Dec. 5-8 Reuters poll, banks will earn 2.00% on deposits after policymakers meet on Thursday, the most since 2009. The refinancing rate will also move up by 50 basis points, to 2.50%. When it last met in late October, the Governing Council topped up key rates by 75 basis points. The U.S. Federal Reserve is also widely expected to downshift to a 50 basis point move following four consecutive 75 basis point increases at the conclusion of its policy meeting on Wednesday, the day before the ECB decision. Findings in the poll agreed and showed inflation would top out this quarter, at 10.3%, and then decline.

☆ Dow has worst week since September as investors look ahead to CPI, Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Jeff Marks | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The next day, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to announce a decision on the next stage of rate hikes. But what's still a question mark is how high the Fed will take rates up, and for how long, given the current economic slowdown. The yield on the 10-Year Treasury moved higher this week amid renewed expectations the Fed will need to raise interest rates higher than expected. ET: Consumer price index FOMC meeting begins Wednesday, December 14 After the bell: Lennar (LEN), Trip.com (TCOM) FOMC meeting ends; rate decision at 2 p.m. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

☆ Morning Bid: Five Alive
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

And given that investors are overwhelmingly positioning for peak rates by mid year and Fed rate cuts after that, the 'good news is bad news' reactions re-emerged on Monday. Futures markets pushed their implied Fed 'terminal rate' next May back above 5% - from as low as 4.85% shortly after Fed Chair Jerome's peculiarly dovish speech last week. There were further signs that China's COVID restrictions are being lifted gradually - though that's ambiguous for global inflation outlooks more generally. There will also be attention later on the U.S. Senate runoff in Georgia - although Democrats have control of the Senate regardless. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ The 'Powell pump' pushing the recent rally in the S&P 500 is over, and stocks may have further to fall as Fed moves and a looming recession keep investors away
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The "Powell pump has been erased," and the S&P 500 has lost gains made over the week after Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke, a City Index analyst said. It "remains to be seen ... whether the bulls will step in once again at these levels," wrote analyst Fawad Razaqzada. "So, the Powell pump has been erased," Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index, wrote in a Tuesday note about the index's technical levels. Stock market bears so far this week have "successfully defended" the key 4,077 resistance level, he said. The fed funds rate is at a range of 3.75% to 4% after six rate increases in 2022.

☆ Fed Could Pencil in Higher Interest Rates Next Year While Slowing Hikes in December
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( Nick Timiraos | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Federal Reserve officials have signaled plans to raise their benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage point at their meeting next week, but elevated wage pressures could lead them to continue lifting it to higher levels than investors currently expect. They have raised rates this year at the fastest pace since the early 1980s, including by 0.75 point at each of their past four meetings to combat inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated last week that the central bank was prepared to downshift the size of rate increases at its coming meeting on Dec. 13-14.

☆ Fed to Weigh Higher Interest Rates Next Year While Slowing Rises This Month
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( Nick Timiraos | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

A reading from the Commerce Department showed consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose 0.8% after an unrevised 0.6% increase in September. The core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index, excluding volatile items, eased to 0.2%, against expectations of 0.3%. "People are feeling that the worst is behind us," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York. The S&P 500 index (.SPX) closed above its 200-day moving average for the first time since April in the previous session, while the Nasdaq index (.IXIC) ended over 4% higher. FEDWATCHInvestors also await nonfarm payrolls data on Friday, with the ADP report on Wednesday suggesting cooling demand for labor.

☆ Tesla delivers its first electric Semi trucks promising 500 miles of range
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Peter Valdes-Dapena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

The Tesla Semi was first shown as a prototype in 2017. The fully electric semi truck features an unusual design in which the driver sits in the center of the cab rather than on one side. Tesla has boasted of the truck’s performance — saying it accelerates much more quickly, even with a full load, than traditional diesel-powered semi trucks. A video during the presentation showed, according to Tesla, a fully loaded Tesla Semi accelerating up a steep grade and passing other trucks. Since it has no multi-geared transmission, as diesel trucks do, it’s also much easier to drive than other semi trucks, Musk said.

☆ Morning Bid: Powell clears the decks
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

LONDON, Dec 1 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. Intended or not, investors clearly read Wednesday's keynote speech by the Federal Reserve chair as a green light for a yearend relief rally in beaten down assets. On the face of it, Fed chief Jerome Powell merely confirmed what most had already assumed - that the Fed would downshift the size of its interest rate rises to half a point next month. The upshot is that markets have dragged their implied peak Fed rate next year back below 5% and continue to price up to half a point of cuts by the end of 2023. Core PCE inflation numbers are due later and another barrage of Fed speakers to hold Powell's take up to the light.

☆ Futures flat after strong Wall Street rally; Salesforce slides
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Ankika Biswas | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Futures: Dow dips 0.16%, S&P flat, Nasdaq off 0.11%Dec 1 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were little changed on Thursday after a strong Wall Street rally in the previous session on hopes of a potential downshift in the Fed's policy on aggressive rate hikes, while Salesforce fell on news of its co-CEO to step down. The S&P 500 index (.SPX) closed above its 200-day moving average for the first time since April in the previous session, while the Nasdaq index (.IXIC) ended over 4% higher. "Seeing a little bit of profit taking," said Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments in New Vernon, New Jersey. Powell, however, cautioned that the fight against inflation was far from over and indicated that the terminal rate will be "somewhat higher" than the 4.6% indicated by policymakers in their September projections. ET, Dow e-minis were down 56 points, or 0.16%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 2 points, or 0.05%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 13.25 points, or 0.11%.

☆ Morning Bid: Uneasy Chair
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. While inflation looks past its peak, labour markets remain super tight and Powell speaks before another crucial nationwide employment report on Friday. Futures market expectations for peak Fed rates next May ticked back above 5% ahead of the speech, with about 35 basis points of rate cuts from there still priced by yearend. China and Hong Kong shares extended gains on Wednesday as market participants cheered an easing of COVID-19 measures in Guangzhou city. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Australia house prices forecast to slump 16% from peak
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Australian house prices have nearly doubled since the financial crisis but that boom has led to a build-up of household debt that could become a risk to financial stability. Although average house prices have fallen 6.5% since a peak late last year, with losses spreading to every state capital, they are still well above pre-pandemic levels. "We expect a peak to trough housing fall of 15-20% and this should be considered an orderly descent," said Adelaide Timbrell, senior economist at ANZ. While lower house prices would help improve affordability, it would be a bitter pill to swallow for recent homeowners, watching their capital decline and facing higher repayments as interest rates rise. AMP, ANZ, Knight Frank and Macquarie said average house prices would have to fall between 25% and 45% to make Australian housing affordable.

☆ Dollar extends losses as Fed minutes signal slower rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-24 | by ( Samuel Indyk | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"As long as the Fed see a stronger labour market, they don't have a big concern about tightening," Christensen said. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against six major peers, was down 0.2% at 105.75, after sliding 1.1% on Wednesday. The euro held onto gains after the account of the European Central Bank's October meeting showed policymakers feared that inflation may be getting entrenched, justifying their outlook for further rate hikes. Meanwhile, billionaire investor Bill Ackman said he's betting the Hong Kong dollar will fall and that its peg to the U.S. dollar could break. The Japanese yen was one of the strongest gainers among major currencies, climbing 0.9% against the dollar to 138.285.

LONDON, Nov 24 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar held onto losses on Thursday after the minutes from the Federal Reserve's November meeting supported the view that the central bank would downshift and raise rates in smaller steps from its December meeting. "As long as the Fed see a stronger labour market, they don't have a big concern about tightening," Christensen said. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against six major peers, was little changed at 105.93, after sliding 1.1% on Wednesday. The euro was up 0.3% against the Swedish krone after Sweden's Riksbank raised rates by 75 basis points, in line with expectations in a Reuters poll. The Japanese yen was one of the strongest gainers among major currencies against the dollar, climbing 0.6% to 138.77.

Restrictions in Beijing and elsewhere tightened further on Tuesday, though currency traders seemed to think the previous day's moves were sufficient. In Europe on Tuesday, data from the European Central Bank showed the euro zone's current account deficit narrowed in September. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell to a new two-year low of $15,479 on Monday, another victim of Monday's rush to the dollar, and also amid jitters about the health of crypto broker Genesis. The lending unit suspended redemptions last week, citing fallout from the collapse of FTX, which filed for bankruptcy on November 11. Reporting by Rae Wee and Alun John; editing by Kim Coghill, Jason Neely and Emelia Sithole-MatariseOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

"What's going on in China is going to take centre stage," said Joseph Capurso, head of international and sustainable economics at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. MUFG analysts noted that more cautious remarks from Fed officials were also been a factor in the dollar losing some momentum on Tuesday. The major factor driving dollar moves in recent months has been market expectations of how aggressively the Federal Reserve will raise rates. The dollar fell 0.5% on the offshore yuan to 7.1412, having gained 0.7% overnight. The lending unit suspended redemptions last week, citing fallout from the collapse of FTX, which filed for bankruptcy on Nov 11.

☆ Dollar pauses climb; China COVID fears mount
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

China's capital warned on Monday that it was facing its most severe test of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a surge in COVID cases sparking fresh restriction measures. The offshore yuan gained 0.3% to 7.1574 per dollar in Asia trade, after falling more than 0.7% overnight. "It could just be a consolidation phase after yesterday's pretty big move up," said Capurso of the U.S. dollar. The Japanese yen last traded 0.2% higher at 141.79 per dollar, after slumping more than 1% to the weaker side of 142 per dollar in the previous session. "It's more like a cork in the ocean, subject to risk aversion as well as movements in 10-year Treasury yields."

☆ Dollar steadies as China COVID fears linger
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

China's capital warned on Monday that it was facing its most severe test of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a surge in COVID cases sparking fresh restriction measures. The offshore yuan traded 0.1% higher at 7.1665 per dollar in early Asia trade on Tuesday, after falling more than 0.7% overnight. The Japanese yen slumped more than 1% to the weaker side of 142 per dollar overnight and last traded 142.01. "It's more like a cork in the ocean, subject to risk aversion as well as movements in 10-year Treasury yields." "Fed comments remained in line with the recent slant of rhetoric," said economists at ING in a note.

☆ Dollar steadies as China Covid fears linger
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar pared some of its strong overnight gains on Tuesday after investors flocked to the safe-haven currency on nerves over China's Covid flare ups, though cautious risk sentiment kept the greenback in demand. China's capital warned on Monday that it was facing its most severe test of the Covid-19 pandemic, with a surge in Covid cases sparking fresh restriction measures. The offshore yuan traded 0.1% higher at 7.1665 per dollar in early Asia trade on Tuesday, after falling more than 0.7% overnight. The Japanese yen slumped more than 1% to the weaker side of 142 per dollar overnight and last traded 142.01. "It's more like a cork in the ocean, subject to risk aversion as well as movements in 10-year Treasury yields ."

☆ Gold ticks up as dollar pauses advance; focus on Fed minutes
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

One kilo gold bars are pictured at the plant of gold and silver refiner and bar manufacturer Argor-Heraeus in Mendrisio, Switzerland, July 13, 2022. Spot gold rose 0.2% to $1,740.56 per ounce by 0033 GMT. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said on Monday the real-world impact of the U.S. central bank's interest rate hikes is likely greater than what its short-term rate target implies. SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 0.2% to 906.06 tons on Monday. Spot silver advanced 0.4% to $20.92 per ounce, platinum also rose 0.3% to $985.30, while palladium added 0.6% to $1,877.14.

☆ Fed's Mester says she supports smaller rate hike in December
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Nov 21 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve can downshift to smaller interest rate hike increments from next month as it fine-tunes its policy actions to help bring down high inflation while keeping the economy humming, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Monday. I don't have a problem with that, I do think that's very appropriate," Mester said in an interview with broadcaster CNBC. "But I do think we're going to have to let the economy tell us going forward what pace we have to be at." Investors overwhelmingly expect a rate increase of 50 basis points at the Fed's next policy meeting on Dec. 13-14. "Right now my forecast is that we're going to see some real, good progress on inflation next year," Mester said.

☆ Fed to lift rates by 50 basis points, but peak policy rate may be higher
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( Prerana Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. consumer price inflation unexpectedly fell below 8% last month, bolstering already well-established market expectations the Fed would go for smaller rate hikes going forward after four consecutive 75-basis-point increases. Peak rate forecasts ranged between 4.25%-4.50% and 5.75%-6.00%. But 16 of 28 respondents to an additional question said the bigger risk was that rates would peak higher and later than they expect now, with another four saying higher and earlier. "While markets are focused on peak inflation, underlying inflation trends are persistent. This could force the Fed to keep raising the federal funds rate well into next year and beyond levels currently anticipated," said Philip Marey, senior U.S. strategist at Rabobank.

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