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Oct 6 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. A batch of data from Japan includes household spending and consumption figures, leading indicators, and the latest foreign exchange reserves. But Bank of Japan money market data indicates that the yen's jump on Tuesday was not the product of yen-buying intervention. The big policy event in Asia will be the Reserve Bank of India's interest rate decision, and more importantly, its guidance. The rupee goes into the meeting trading at 83.00 per dollar, right down at August's record low 83.45 per dollar.
Persons: Jamie McGeever, payrolls Organizations: Bank, Reserve Bank, U.S, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Japan, Asia, U.S, India
"It's not going to be a matter of struggling to get the inflation rate higher. While higher interest rates are good news for savers, businesses and consumers have become used to paying nothing for money over the past 15 years. Reuters GraphicsREADING YIELDSA market-based Fed model that breaks down the 10-year Treasury yield into its components provides further insight into investors' thinking. This rise in term premium, which spent much of the last decade below zero, reflects high levels of uncertainty about economic outlook and monetary policy, investors said. While the market appears to be confident in its belief in the end of the era of zero interest rates, it is far less so about the economy's actual likely path.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Greg Whiteley, It's, Neel Kashkari, Kashkari, Adrian, Crump, Emanuel Moench, John Velis, Leslie Falconio, BNY's Velis, Velis, Paritosh Bansal, Anna Driver 私 Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal Reserve, York Fed, Minneapolis, Moench, Frankfurt School of Finance, Management, Americas, BNY Mellon, UBS Global Wealth Management, San, San Francisco Fed Locations: Washington ,, U.S, DoubleLine, San Francisco
Jamie Dimon has warned that it's possible for US interest rates to rise as high as 7%. "If I was advising a company, I would say, are you prepared for 7% rates? AdvertisementAdvertisementJamie Dimon has warned that it's possible for US interest rates to surge as high as 7%, thanks to inflationary pressures stoked by factors including huge fiscal spending and the global energy transition. "I absolutely think they're possible," the JPMorgan CEO told the The Economic Times in an interview, referring to 7% rates. The Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate is currently in the 5.25%-5.5% band, up 525 basis points since early 2022.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, , Dimon didn't, I'm, Dimon Organizations: JPMorgan, Economic Times, Service, Federal Reserve Locations: disinflationary, China, that's
Net neutrality may be US regulators’ next quagmire
  + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Jonathan Newton/Pool via REUTERS Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Sept 26 (Reuters Breakingviews) - U.S. regulators risk another quagmire. The Federal Communications Commission wants to reinstate net neutrality rules that regulate how traffic flows on the internet. As with antitrust enforcers’ often-frustrated deal crackdown, the agency is stuck in a cycle of trying to litigate future problems, today. Regulators are trying to use yesterday’s tools to address the hypothetical problems of tomorrow. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Jessica Rosenworcel, Jonathan Newton, , Donald Trump, Joe Biden’s, Jennifer Saba, Jonathan Guilford, Sharon Lam, Aditya Sriwatsav Organizations: U.S . Senate Commerce, Science, Transportation Committee, Federal Communications Commission, REUTERS Acquire, Reuters, Verizon Communications, Netflix, Regulators, X, Republicans, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, Ukraine
Neel Kashkari, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, attends an interview with Reuters in New York City, New York, U.S., May 22, 2023. Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari thinks there's nearly a 50-50 chance that interest rates will need to move significantly higher to bring down inflation. In that instance, the inflation rate falls but stays above the Fed's 2% target, posing a challenge for policymakers. Noting that rate-sensitive areas such as housing and autos have held strong despite Fed tightening, Kashkari remarked, "These dynamics raise the question, How tight is policy right now? Services inflation, excluding the cost of renting shelter, has been coming down, but has otherwise remained elevated, raising longer-term concerns.
Persons: Neel Kashkari, there's, Kashkari Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Reuters, Minneapolis Federal Locations: New York City , New York, U.S, Minneapolis
Republicans leave Ukraine, weed, crypto in limbo
  + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy speaks with reporters at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, U.S. September 20, 2023. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Sept 21 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Legislative casualties of U.S. Congress’s budget fight are emerging. His caving to extreme members of the party augurs poorly for measures like Ukraine aid and cannabis banking. Republicans including Representative Matt Gaetz and Representative Andy Biggs have already denied calls for new Ukraine aid. By siding with further-right members, McCarthy gives them more power to hold the line.
Persons: Kevin McCarthy, Jonathan Ernst, Joe Biden, Biden, McCarthy, Matt Gaetz, Andy Biggs, Ben Winck, Bernie Sanders’s, Lauren Silva Laughlin, Sharon Lam Organizations: U.S, Capitol, REUTERS, Reuters, Republican, Wednesday, Banking, X, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, Ukraine, Washington
The Federal Reserve, as expected, left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday while raising forecasts for economic growth and lowering them for unemployment next year. “Job gains have slowed in recent months but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.”The central bank updated its forecasts for economic growth, unemployment and inflation. The GDPNow estimate from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is now pegging economic growth in the third quarter at 4.9%. But it would likely curb economic growth at a time when the Fed’s policies have restricted credit and other government stimulus is waning.
Persons: , ” Powell, , Powell, Andrew Patterson, Ruslan Lienkha, Victor Li, Jeff MacDonald, Joe Biden, Donald Trump Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, , Villanova University, Federal Reserve Bank of, GOP Locations: Saudi Arabia, Russia, U.S, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Cazoo’s debt fix points to bumpy ride
  + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
That’s not the fate of shareholders in UK-based and U.S.-listed Cazoo (CZOO.N), which has just announced a brutal debt restructuring. Under the deal announced on Wednesday, bondholders will swap $630 million of convertible notes for $200 million of fresh debt and a large slug of the equity. The debt cut will do little to fix Cazoo’s rickety engine. Although the company had 195 million pounds of cash at the end of June, it burnt through over 50 million pounds in the previous six months. And revenue this year is expected to fall nearly 40%, as customers racked by high interest rates tighten their belts.
Persons: That’s, Cazoo, Aimee Donnellan, Bernie Sanders’s, Neil Unmack, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S
Pearson’s pricey CEO will rile shareholders
  + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
LONDON, Sept 20 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Pearson (PSON.L) is baiting shareholders with its choice of new CEO. The 57-year-old will receive 13 million pounds’ worth of cash and restricted shares on top of his normal pay as compensation for leaving Microsoft. Such generosity is questionable considering that in April nearly half of the London-listed company’s shareholders voted against a pay package of more than 8 million pounds for Bird. Despite its greater digital focus, Pearson’s revenue is expected to flatline over the next three years, LSEG forecasts show. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Pearson, Andy Bird, Omar Abbosh, There’s, Aimee Donnellan, Bernie Sanders’s, Francesco Guerrera, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, Microsoft, Disney, X, Thomson Locations: London
UK disinflationary shock sharpens Bailey’s dilemma
  + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey speaks as he attends a press conference for the Monetary Policy Report August 2023, at the Bank of England in London, Britain, August 3, 2023. Alastair Grant/Pool via REUTERS Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Sept 20 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey finally got some good news on Wednesday. UK annual inflation fell to 6.7% in August, from 6.8% in July, confounding market expectations of a rise to 7%. Domestic disinflationary forces offset a nearly 30% rise in oil prices to bring headline inflation to the lowest level since February 2022. Higher petrol prices did add around 0.3 percentage points to the consumer price index, according to Capital Economics.
Persons: Bank of England Andrew Bailey, Alastair Grant, Andrew Bailey, disinflation, Francesco Guerrera, Bernie Sanders’s, Neil Unmack, Streisand Neto Organizations: Bank of England, Monetary, REUTERS Acquire, Reuters, Capital Economics, CPI, Thomson Locations: London, Britain
Disney’s theme parks reveal shrunken treasure
  + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Sept 20 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Bob Iger can’t get off the roller coaster. Walt Disney’s (DIS.N) chief executive plans to double the Magic Kingdom’s investment in theme parks and other experiences to $60 billion over the course of about 10 years. On the other, Disney’s dwindling cash and the increasing demands for it is cause for concern. One issue is that Disney’s free cash flow has plummeted. No wonder adding theme parks to the list is making shareholders skittish.
Persons: Bob Iger can’t, Walt Disney’s, Iger, Jennifer Saba, Bernie Sanders’s, Jeffrey Goldfarb, Sharon Lam Organizations: Writers Guild of America, Walt Disney Studios, Reuters, Disney, Comcast, Pearson’s, Thomson Locations: Burbank , California, U.S, Hulu
Striking United Auto Workers members Laura Zielinski and Aisha Cochra hold their strike signs outside the Stellantis Jeep plant in Toledo, Ohio, U.S. September 19, 2023. The fledgling auto workers strike, if it lasts and broadens out, could be just that. A prolonged nationwide strike could put already-low inventory under heavy strain, posing "significant" upside risk to auto prices. The United Auto Workers strike against the 'Detroit Three' automakers General Motors, Ford and Stellantis entered its fifth day on Tuesday. Annual inflation has plummeted this year and by some measures now has, or is close to having, a "2" handle - the central bank's 2% goal is within sight.
Persons: Laura Zielinski, Aisha Cochra, Rebecca Cook, Morgan Stanley, Michael Feroli, JP Morgan, Cox, Stellantis, Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner, Jamie McGeever, Andrea Ricci Organizations: United Auto Workers, REUTERS, Rights, Fed, Reuters, U.S . Consumer, Bureau of Labor Statistics, General Motors, Ford, Cox Automotive, UAW, UBS, University, Thomson Locations: Toledo , Ohio, U.S, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, Detroit
Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), at a rates decision news conference in Frankfurt, Germany, on Thursday, Sept. 14, 2023. The ECB raised interest rates again, acting for the 10th consecutive time to choke inflation out of the euro zone's increasingly feeble economy. The European Central Bank last week signaled that its Governing Council feels rates may have got there. Federal ReserveFed Chair Jerome Powell made clear last month that further hikes were on the table, and the central bank is deeply concerned about inflation experiencing a fresh acceleration if financial conditions ease. The consumer price index rose at its fastest monthly rate this year in August, mainly driven by energy prices, and was 3.7% year-on-year.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Berenberg's Holger Schmieding, Raphael Thuin, Thuin, Jerome Powell, J . Safra Sarasin Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Bloomberg, Getty, Deutsche Bank, Tikehau, Federal, U.S . Federal, J ., Fed, Markets, Reuters, Bank of England Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Europe, U.S
Member of the rate-setting Monetary Council of the National Bank of Hungary Gyula Pleschinger speaks during an interview with Reuters in Budapest, Hungary, September 14, 2023. REUTERS/Krisztina Than Acquire Licensing RightsBUDAPEST, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Hungary's central bank could cut its base rate to 10-11% by the end of the year from 13%, a rate-setter told Reuters, warning however against big or unexpected moves amid the fallout from a larger-than-expected rate cut in Poland last week. Once that alignment takes place, the NBH will simplify its policy toolkit further, which could include making the interest rate corridor around its base rate symmetrical, he said. "From that point onwards, we will take all of our steps in a very serious, data-driven mode, looking at the market, tracking the market," Pleschinger said. Asked about the fallout from the National Bank of Poland's much-larger-than-expected 75 bps interest rate cut last week that saw regional currencies weaken, Pleschinger said Hungary's central bank should tread carefully.
Persons: National Bank of Hungary Gyula Pleschinger, Gyula Pleschinger, unwinding, Pleschinger, Disinflation, Gergely Szakacs, Hugh Lawson Organizations: National Bank of Hungary, Reuters, REUTERS, Rights, European, National Bank of, Thomson Locations: Budapest, Hungary, Poland, National Bank of Poland's
SocGen on Tuesday raised its S&P 500 price target for the end of 2023 to 4,750 from 4,300. In the coming months, calls for a recession will be "deleted/delayed," the SocGen equity strategists said in a report. "We believe the S&P 500 will be the ‘last man standing’, in terms of defending its returns," the strategists said in the report. SocGen gave an S&P 500 target of 3,800 for the second quarter of next year, saying they expected a "shock" to the index "likely driven by a contraction in U.S. consumer spending." Such a yield move would push the S&P 500 back to 4,000, the strategists said.
Persons: Stephane Mahe, SocGen, Lewis Krauskopf, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Societe Generale, REUTERS, Generale, Japan's Nikkei, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Nantes, France, U.S, Europe, China
An electronic board shows Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes, at the Lujiazui financial district in Shanghai, China October 25, 2022. REUTERS/Aly Song/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 11 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. According to Goldman Sachs's real-time indexes, financial conditions in China, emerging markets and globally are now the tightest since last November. The economic data spotlight this week will shine on China. Money supply, loan growth, social financing (a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy), retail sales, industrial production, unemployment, house prices and fixed asset investment are all due for release by September 15.
Persons: Aly, Jamie McGeever, Goldman Sachs's, Diane Craft Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Nasdaq, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Shanghai, Shenzhen, China, India, Beijing, Asia, Japan, Philippine, Indonesia, Malaysia
.SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 YTD My last column before a late-summer hiatus, published July 15 with the S & P about 1% higher than Friday's close, began: "Enough for now? There's been no net progress since then after a modest push higher, 5% pullback and partial bounce. There's no doubt the market is sensitive to these yield moves, unsure how the economy and market might handle them. There's an insistence among plenty of cautious market participants that stocks are only as high as they are because eventual Fed rate cuts are anticipated. Not to be too literal, but this at least would suggest some more seasonal choppiness before a potential break higher.
Persons: There's, Oleg Melentyev, , Goldman Sachs, Tony Pasquariello, China's Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S ., Federal, Treasury, Labor, Bank of, UAW, Atlanta Fed, Investment Locations: Europe, China, U.S
Elsewhere in Asian FX markets, China's yuan slid to a 10-month low on Wednesday through 7.32 per dollar and is a whisker from plumbing depths not recorded since late 2007. Investors could get further reminders on the currency's vulnerability from Chinese trade and FX reserves figures on Thursday. Chinese trade has been one of the biggest economic red flags this year. Beijing's nominal FX reserves have risen this year, even as the nominal value of Beijing's holdings of U.S. Treasuries has fallen to a 14-year low. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:- China trade (August)- Malaysia interest rate decision- Australia trade (August)By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Aly, Jamie McGeever, Treasuries, Josie Kao Organizations: REUTERS, FX, Asian FX, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, India, Japan, Asian, Beijing, U.S, Malaysia, Australia
"Further progress is likely to become more difficult as base effects fade, and supply-constraints could drive global energy and food prices higher again." Brent crude prices have risen 27% since mid-year and U.S. crude is up 30%, with U.S. retail pump prices already up almost 10% so far since June. Oil and inflation expectationsReuters GraphicsSLOWING DESCENTAnd alongside creeping worries about rising debt supply, the long end of bond markets has been rattled again by the oil price jump. And this has been a far bigger influence on the inflation trajectory than oil prices per se. Yet, restive crude prices will still cloud a messy and tricky battle with inflation expectations just as policy tightening cycles near an end.
Persons: Brent that's, Christian Keller, Akash Utsav, Andrew Goodwin, there's, George H.W, Jamie Freed Organizations: Brent, UBS, Organization for Economic Cooperation, Development, Barclays, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, U.S, Treasury, Oxford, Monetary Fund, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, Russia, tailwind, U.S, Europe, Britain, West, George H.W . Bush
Pumpjacks are seen during sunset at the Daqing oil field in Heilongjiang province, China August 22, 2019. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 6 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Oil is back in the spotlight after Russia and Saudi Arabia on Tuesday extended output cuts. Oil prices have essentially been disinflationary all year, meaning the year-on-year price change has always been negative, sometimes dramatically so. With the dollar, bond yields and oil prices all marching higher, it is little wonder investors are drawing in their horns.
Persons: Stringer, Jamie McGeever, Brent, Japan's Hajime Takata, Josie Kao Organizations: REUTERS, Reserve Bank of Australia, U.S ., Asia, Bank, Japan's, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Heilongjiang province, China, Asia, Taiwan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Australia
Morning Bid: Global business splutters, dollar surges
  + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
But the U.S. jobs picture underscores the "soft-landing" consensus - something Tuesday's updates on global business surveys from last month suggest may not be the case elsewhere. Even though messy workouts of China's ongoing property bust were some relief - as real estate giant Country Garden made some last minute dollar bond payments - the funk in the wider economy clearly persists. That saw the euro fall back against the dollar to levels not seen since mid-June. But that provided little solace to sterling , which was also pummelled by the dollar to its lowest since June. The sour business polls took some heat out of the recent oil price rebound , but did little to calm the long end of the bond market.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Mike Dolan, disinflation, Philip Lowe, Glazer, Luis de Guindos, Isabel Schnabel, Hugh Lawson Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Reserve Bank of Australia, Stock, Wall, English football, Manchester United, Sunday, Central Bank, ECB, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Europe, China
An aerial view shows the Central Bank of India building, in Mumbai, India, 28 September, 2022. (Photo by Niharika Kulkarni/NurPhoto via Getty Images)The global economy is set to slow down as inflation remains stickier than expected — but there may be some "pockets of resilience," according to Moody's Investors Service. Diron said the slowdown can be attributed to three factors: higher interest rates that persist, China's slowing growth, as well as financial system stresses. While central banks have managed to steer the global economy and "create a disinflationary trend" by raising interest rates, inflation risks are still a sticking point, she said. "There are still risks out there that inflation could prove stickier ... than currently expected, and that would lead to higher risks for longer and slower growth," explained the managing director.
Persons: Niharika Kulkarni, We're, Marie Diron, Diron Organizations: Central Bank of India, Getty, Moody's Investors Service, CNBC Locations: Mumbai, India, Asia
SHENZHEN, CHINA - MARCH 09: View of high commercial and residential buildings on March 9, 2016 in Shenzhen, China. "As a result, Chinese economic weakness and falling prices (especially Chinese producer prices) are likely to spill over into global markets — near-term good news for the Western central banks' fight against elevated inflation." "China's disappointing rebound is now feeding negatively into global sentiment and growth. Beyond the trade-related spillovers, a common global disinflationary pressure comes from commodity prices, where as a huge importer of commodities, Chinese domestic demand remains a key factor. "Weak Chinese domestic investment and broad-based excess capacity in manufacturing, as well as weak sales of new homes and land, are likely to continue to depress global commodity demand," Wilding and Liao said.
Persons: Zhong Zhi, Tiffany Wilding, Wilding, Carol Liao, Montgomery Koning, Liao, TS Lombard's Montgomery Koning Organizations: Getty, National Bureau, Statistics, Evergrande, TS Lombard, Lombard, U.S, Census, TS Lombard's Locations: SHENZHEN, CHINA, Shenzhen, China, U.S, Beijing, West, Germany
VIEW Turkey cements policy shift with super-sized rate hike
  + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
A logo of Turkey's Central Bank is pictured at the entrance of its headquarters in Ankara, Turkey October 15, 2021. "We should recall that sudden changes in interest rates usually have a delayed effect. "This was also the steepest rate hike since the CBT management reshuffle after the elections in May. We think the strong rate hike meant to address market concerns that the CBT wanted to avoid significant rate hike." TIMOTHY ASH, BLUEBAY ASSET MANAGEMENT, LONDON"Really solid move by the CBRT (central bank) to hike policy rates arguably above expectations by 750bps to 25%."
Persons: Cagla, GRZEGORZ DROZDZ, TIMOTHY ASH, 750bps, Hatice Karahan, Hatice Gaye, PIOTR MATYS, Governor Erkan, Erdogan, LIAM PEACH, Erkan, OZKARDESKAYA, SWISSQUOTE Organizations: Turkey's Central, REUTERS, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Ankara, Turkey, Turkish, EMERGINGMARKETWATCH.COM, SOFIA, GENEVA
US stocks still have further room to run, according to a Wednesday note from GlobalData TS Lombard. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe bull market in stocks that started earlier this year isn't ending anytime soon, according to a Wednesday note from GlobalData TS Lombard. TS Lombard highlighted eight charts to back up its bullish view on the US stock market. The Fed is approaching the top of its hiking cycle, although markets discounting early cuts may be too optimistic," TS Lombard said. Sentiment has largely normalized now; and the S&P 500, if anything, appears oversold today," TS Lombard said.
Persons: Andrea Cicione, Skylar Koning, Lombard, Disinflation, GlobalData Organizations: GlobalData, Lombard
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