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Dollar dips as Powell testimony disappoints hawks
  + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Powell told lawmakers the fight against inflation still "has a long way to go" and that despite a recent pause in interest rate hikes officials agreed borrowing costs would likely need to move higher. While noting that inflation remains very far from the Fed's target, Powell said it may make sense to still raise rates, at a more moderate pace. The dollar index , which measures the currency against six rivals, fell 0.43% to 102.07 following Powell's testimony to the House Financial Affairs Committee. Investors broadly expect rate hikes to resume at the Fed's July meeting, though financial market indicators reflect doubts that the Fed will deliver more increases beyond that. YEN UNDER PRESSURE, STERLING SEESAWSThe euro was 0.62 % higher against the dollar at $ 1.0985 .
Persons: Jerome Powell's, Powell, Karl Schamotta, Schamotta, Michael Brown, STERLING, Kazuo Ueda, Charles Schwab, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Tom Westbrook, Farouq Suleiman, Sam Holmes, Kim Coghill, Sharon Singleton, Alex Richardson, Richard Chang Organizations: YORK, U.S, Fed, House Financial, Committee, Investors, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia's, Fidelity, Citadel Securities, Thomson Locations: Beijing
The MSCI's broad gauge of world stocks ticked 0.2% higher, (.MIWD00000PUS), with Wall Street markets closed for the Juneteenth holiday. After a week in which the stock market cheered the Fed's decision to skip a rate increase in June, Powell is scheduled to deliver congressional testimony on Wednesday and Thursday. Billions of dollars have flowed into big tech in recent weeks, with analysts citing the productivity-improving potential of artificial intelligence for the rally. "The obvious narrative of AI has dominated this rally in tech stocks," said Dan Cartridge, portfolio manager at Hawksmoor. The 10-year British gilt yield stood at 4.462%, in an inverted yield curve pattern that can precede recessions.
Persons: BoE, Jerome Powell, Powell, Hawksmoor, Hong, HSI, Goldman Sachs, Brent, Naomi Rovnick, Stella Qiu, Tom Hogue, Gerry Doyle, Emma Rumney Organizations: Nikkei, Global, . Federal, Wall, Bank of England, Japan's Nikkei, People's Bank of, Friday's dovish Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: China, SYDNEY, Europe, U.S, Asia, Beijing, People's Bank of China
The MSCI's broad gauge of world stocks was steady (.MIWD00000PUS), with Wall Street markets closed for the Juneteenth holiday. After a week in which the stock market cheered the Fed's decision to skip a rate increase in June, Powell is scheduled to deliver congressional testimony on Wednesday and Thursday. "The obvious narrative of AI has dominated this rally in tech stocks," said Dan Cartridge, portfolio manager at Hawksmoor. "But a lot of it is also to do with interest rate expectations," he added, warning that the Fed staying hawkish would mean "we quite quickly see valuation compression again." Two-year British government bond yields , which reflect rate expectations, added 6 basis points (bps) to around 4.94% - near last week's 15-year high.
Persons: 25bps, Jerome Powell, Powell, Hawksmoor, Hong, HSI, Goldman Sachs, Brent, Naomi Rovnick, Stella Qiu, Christopher Cushing, Tom Hogue, Gerry Doyle Organizations: of England, Nikkei, Global, . Federal, Wall, Bank of England, Japan's Nikkei, People's Bank of, Friday's dovish Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: China, SYDNEY, Europe, U.S, Asia, Beijing, People's Bank of China
Both S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were mostly flat after Wall Street's bullish run met resistance on Friday. Cash U.S. Treasuries were untraded due to the Juneteenth holiday, while futures were largely steady. The People's Bank of China is widely expected to cut its benchmark loan prime interest rates on Tuesday, following a similar reduction in medium-term policy loans last week. Several major banks last week cut their growth forecasts for China after the recent disappointing data. U.S. crude futures fell 1.0% to 71.03 per barrel, and Brent crude was down 1.3% at $75.63 per barrel.
Persons: BOE, Jerome Powell's, bullish, HSI, Morgan Stanley, Robin Xing, Antony Blinken, Xi Jinping, POWELL, Powell, Ray Attrill, Brent, Stella Qiu, Christopher Cushing, Tom Hogue Organizations: Nikkei, . Federal, Nasdaq, Cash U.S, Japan's Nikkei, Bank of Japan's, U.S ., People's Bank of, National Australia Bank, The Bank of England, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: China, SYDNEY, Asia, Pacific, Japan, People's Bank of China, .
Dollar eases as chances for a U.S. rate rise ebb
  + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
LONDON, June 7 (Reuters) - The dollar dipped on Wednesday as chances faded for a rate hike next week by the Federal Reserve, while the Canadian dollar touched one-month highs as traders amped up bets for the country to raise rates and the Turkish lira hit record lows. "Over the last month or so, we've seen the market slowly pricing out the risks of a 2023 interest rate cut. Nonetheless, traders were attaching a higher chance that the BoC would raise Canadian interest rates again later on Wednesday. Against the dollar, sterling rose 0.3% to $1.2456, while the Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 139.40 and the euro rose 0.2% to $1.0718. Elsewhere, the Turkish lira slid as much as 7.6% to a record low of 23.16 per U.S. dollar.
Persons: Philip Lowe, Jane Foley, we've, Foley, Siong Sim, bitcoin, Coinbase, Binance, Zhao, Binance's, Rae Wee, Clarence Fernandez, William Maclean Organizations: Federal Reserve, Australian, Reserve Bank, U.S ., Rabobank, BoC, U.S, Canadian, Fed, Bank of Singapore, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, Thomson Locations: U.S, CHINA, China, Turkish, Singapore
For the record, exports posted a bigger-than-expected drop of 7.5% year-on-year, sending the trade surplus to a 13-month low, while imports remained mired in negative territory. Indeed, RBA Governor Philip Lowe was still explaining Tuesday's policy decision in a speech to bankers after the central bank wrong-footed economists who predicted there would be a rate pause for a second straight month. Expectations of a follow-up hike in July cushioned the Aussie from the weak Chinese trade numbers and Australia's own below-forecast first-quarter gross domestic product data. Stock markets in Asia were mixed, as were U.S. equity futures, following a slightly firmer finish on Wall Street. Light positioning could well persist into next week's lineup of major central bank meetings, as the earnings season draws to a close.
Persons: Sonali Desai China's, Philip Lowe, Fabio Panetta, Edouard Fernandez, Bollo, Luis de Guindos, Klaas, Sonali Desai, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Reuters, Bank, Bank of Canada, Stock, U.S, Thomson Locations: Beijing, Europe, Asia, Brussels
The Australian dollar is sliding towards a fourth consecutive monthly loss and at $0.6492 is barely above last week's seven-month lows. Aussie stocks (.AXJO) are eying their worst month since February with a 2.4% drop. Based on these factors, we raise our end-2023 targets for Japanese stocks, to 2,300 for TOPIX and 32,500 for the Nikkei 225." Benchmark 10-year yields dropped 12.4 basis points overnight and fell another 1.5 bps on Wednesday in Asian trade to 3.6808%. The drop in yields put a pause in what looks to be the U.S. dollar's best monthly rally since February.
Persons: stockmarkets, Carol Kong, Masashi Akutsu, Joe Biden, Treasuries, Philip Lowe, Sam Holmes Organizations: Nikkei, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, of America, Republican, Brent, Thomson Locations: China, Asia, Japan, SINGAPORE, Pacific, U.S, United States
"It feels like there's some optimism regarding talks on the debt ceiling," said Joseph Sroka, chief investment officer at NovaPoint in Atlanta. "Part of that may be political gamesmanship, but it's helping the market a little bit today." European stocks ended the session higher as investors eyed ongoing U.S. debt ceiling negotiations and Turkey's impending election runoff. Emerging market stocks rose 0.54%. Gold edged higher in opposition to the weakening dollar as the ongoing debt ceiling standoff stoked fears of a global economic slowdown.
[1/2] A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 11, 2023. "It feels like there's some optimism regarding talks on the debt ceiling," said Joseph Sroka, chief investment officer at NovaPoint in Atlanta. European stocks ended the session higher as investors eyed ongoing U.S. debt ceiling negotiations and Turkey's impending election runoff. Emerging market stocks rose 0.53%. Gold edged higher in opposition to the weakening dollar as the debt ceiling standoff wore on, and investors clung to hopes of interest rate cuts by year-end, despite comments from Fed officials.
[1/2] A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 11, 2023. European stocks pared initial gains and were last nominally higher as investors eyed ongoing U.S. debt ceiling negotiations and Turkey's impending election runoff. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.12% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.14%. Emerging market stocks rose 0.39%. Gold edged higher in opposition to the weakening dollar as the debt ceiling standoff wore on.
Outright short positions have mushroomed by 68% to 58,157 contracts in the space of three weeks. Outright long positions have been scaled back to 41,987 contracts, almost half the level of the February peak when investors were betting on a full-throttle post-COVID recovery in China. Fund managers are now net short of CME copper to the tune of 16,170 contracts, the largest collective bear bet since August last year. Investment funds have slashed their net long positioning from 25,737 contracts on April 14 to just 4,813 contracts as of May 5. Investment funds slash LME copper long positions as mood turns bearishWEAK RECOVERYChina's recovery from the stringent zero-COVID policy of last year has so far fallen short of expectations from a metals perspective.
PayPal shares fall after margin outlook disappoints
  + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPayPal shares fall after margin outlook disappointsCNBC's Deirdre Bosa reports on news from PayPal's quarterly earnings results.
CNN —Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein of California, who has been away from the Senate since February while recovering from shingles, will return to Washington on Tuesday, according to a spokesperson. Feinstein sits on the Senate Judiciary Committee, and without her vote on the panel, Democrats said that they would have to delay some of President Biden’s key judicial nominees. In April, Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna of California became the first member of Congress to call on Feinstein to resign. In April, the California senator asked Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer to temporarily replace her on the Judiciary Committee, and he proposed that Maryland Sen. Ben Cardin take her spot. She needs to get well so she can get back to work,” Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley, who is also 89, said.
China's services activity remained well within growth territory in April as a private survey showed a softer reading from March. Atlantide Phototravel | Corbis Documentary | Getty ImagesChina's services activity remained well within growth territory in April, even as a private survey showed a softer reading compared with March. The latest Caixin reading suggests that services activity is still "undergoing a fast recovery," according to Wang Zhe, senior economist at Caixin Insight Group. The continued expansion in China's services activity stood in contrast to the disappointing factory activity reported earlier in the week. "It is worth noting that manufacturing and services activity diverged, with employment and input costs in the manufacturing sector contracting significantly," Wang wrote.
May 4 (Reuters) - Paramount Global Inc (PARA.O) missed first-quarter revenue estimates on Thursday amid a weak advertising market in its TV business and cut its dividend. The company incurred a $1.7 billion charge in connection with its plan to integrate Showtime into its Paramount+ streaming service and remove certain programming. Paramount Global said its dividend cut to 5 cents per share will result in approximately $500 million in annualized cash savings. Paramount+, the company's flagship streaming platform, added 4.1 million subscribers during the quarter, compared with 9.9 million in the preceding quarter. Sales for its TV media segment declined by 8% from a year earlier and advertising revenue fell by 11%.
Paramount invested in original content to try to attract subscribers to its streaming platform, but is up against competition from established players such as Netflix (NFLX.O) and Walt Disney Co's (DIS.N) Disney+. Paramount+, the company's flagship streaming platform, added 4.1 million subscribers during the quarter, compared with 9.9 million in the preceding quarter. Sales for its TV media segment declined by 8% from a year earlier, and advertising revenue fell by 11%. Investment in original content and expansion of its streaming platform are consuming cash at the owner of the CBS network. The operating loss was $1.23 billion for the quarter, compared with an operating income of $775 million a year earlier.
Xifaxan sales were also up 7%. Internationally, reported Q1 sales of $247 million missed estimates but grew 1% compared to the year-ago period. Organic sales grew 5%, driven by strength in Canada and Europe. Organic sales grew 6%. Excluding Bausch + Lomb, the team reiterated their revenue guidance of $4.45 billion to $4.6 billion, as well as their adjusted EBITDA guidance of $2.3 billion to $2.4 billion.
Companies Enphase Energy Inc FollowApril 25 (Reuters) - Enphase Energy Inc (ENPH.O) reported market-beating profit in the first quarter on strong sales in Europe, but forecast second-quarter revenue below Wall Street expectations, sending its shares down as much as 17% in extended trading on Tuesday. The company expects second-quarter revenue between $700 million and $750 million, below analysts' estimate of $773 million, according to Refinitiv data. Enphase in February had expected first-quarter revenue in the range of $700 million to $740 million. Raymond James' Molchanov sees revenue growing in the second half of the year with the second quarter remaining flat. The company in March said shipments of its microinverters from Romania are expected to begin in the second quarter of this year.
Inflation, which hit a 41-year high of 11.1% in October, continued to eat into the spending power of workers whose pay is rising by less. Britain's headline inflation rate is now the highest in western Europe and compares with an average of 6.9% in the euro zone and 5.0% in the United States. Austria recorded a higher inflation rate than Britain in February. Reuters GraphicsPOLITICAL PRESSUREHigh inflation is a problem for Britain's government as well as the BoE, which forecast in February that inflation would be below 4% by the end of the year. Producer price inflation - which measures changes in prices charged and paid by manufacturers and often leads changes in CPI - tumbled in March due to lower oil prices.
Morgan Stanley's top equity strategist Mike Wilson is staying bearish on the stock market despite the latest rally. Wilson pointed to the potential for disappointing earnings and a tightening Fed as reasons investors should be cautious. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. He believes revenue growth is going to disappoint investors based on recent soft readings in inflation, which signals a decline in demand. Falling inflation, especially for goods, is a sign of waning demand, and inflation is the one thing holding up revenue growth for many businesses," Wilson warned.
Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is not running for president in 2024, per ABC News. Pompeo said that he would have managed the country's debt better than Trump. According to ABC News, Pompeo announced that he would not be running for president on Bret Baier's Fox News show on Friday. On March 5, Pompeo appeared on Fox News Sunday and joked that "President Pompeo" would have managed the country's debt better than Trump: "$6 trillion more in debt. Pompeo, despite his stature as a former Secretary of State and longtime GOP power player, has barely registered in polling.
Citi is bullish on Merck , saying that the company's drug pipeline is underappreciated by the market. The exclusive license and collaboration agreement for ADC development helps Merck in developing more cancer treatment drugs — and Citi thinks it could rival its competitors' offerings. Citi anticipates further upside for Merck shares from the Inflation Reduction Act. To be sure, Baum noted a key downside risk to his valuation is if the ADC pipeline disappoints. Further risks include lower-than-anticipated value share capture by the company's Melanoma treatment drug Keytruda, and a slowdown in its animal health business.
April 12 (Reuters) - American Airlines Group Inc (AAL.O) on Wednesday forecast first-quarter profit below market expectations, joining rival United Airlines (UAL.O) in signaling a hit from persistently high labor and fuel costs. "We had expected American to come in towards the better end in a similar manner as JetBlue's guidance update provided in mid-March," Syth added. Airlines' shares in 2023The airline industry has been able to survive the broader economic slowdown in the United States, thanks also to tight airline capacity due to shortages of aircraft and spare parts. On an adjusted basis, it forecast a quarterly per-share profit of between 1 cent and 5 cents, compared with its previous forecast of a near break-even. Southwest Airlines Co (LUV.N) closed down 1.4%, United was down 6.5% and Delta was down 2.4%.
[1/5] A woman works inside a cannabis shop, at Khaosan Road, one of the favourite tourist spots in Bangkok, Thailand, March 29, 2023. Thousands of cannabis shops and businesses have sprung up, especially in Bangkok and tourist spots, since Thailand became the first Southeast Asian country to decriminalise the drug. A deluge of marijuana smuggled in from abroad has swamped Thailand, driving down wholesale prices and hurting growers, the industry members said. He did not comment on the scale of smuggled cannabis in the market or its impact on farmers. "A lot of cannabis that's coming in from the U.S. is going to dispensaries in Bangkok or Phuket or Pattaya," she said.
Value trap? Growth trap? What to know to avoid getting snagged
  + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
It's a value trap! No, it's a growth trap! Value traps In the case of a so-called value trap, an investor buys a stock on the premise it provides deep value because its valuation is inexpensive relative to the company's earnings or cash flow. Growth traps While value traps reel in an investor for a supposedly undervalued opportunity, a growth trap's appeal comes from the promise that a relatively expensive stock will see rapid growth in the future. With a value trap, you may be stuck until earnings rebound with the next business- or economic cycle, while collecting a dividend in the meantime.
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