U.S. shale production costs are soaring and there is no sign that tight-fisted investors will change their demands for returns rather than investment in expanding drilling.
At Helmerich & Payne (HP.N), one of the largest drilling contractors, its R&D budget will rise only $1 million, from 2022's $27 million.
The U.S. government expects overall oil production to reach a new peak next year, but it has several times this year cut its forecasts.
Shale production declines rapidly after peaking compared to conventional oil wells, falling about 50% after the first year.
Lower production rates are "a longer-term prospect," said Mike Oestmann, chief executive of shale producer Tall City Exploration.
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