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☆ Downside targets to watch for Nvidia, according to the charts
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-18 | by ( David Keller | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

It's time to consider downside targets for A.I.-darling Nvidia. The first half of 2024 was all about stocks like Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) riding the A.I. On the short-term chart of NVDA, we can see a series of bearish engulfing patterns in mid-June and again in mid-July. And when the price returned to that price range earlier this month, we saw the same pattern of short-term distribution. This support level also lines up with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April to June rally phase, and also lines up with the 50-day moving average.

Persons: I'd, David Keller Organizations: A.I, Nvidia Corp, Nvidia, Nasdaq, CMT, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL

☆ The stock market is flashing warning signs as tech shares are a 'valuation timebomb,' SocGen says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-18 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The SocGen strategist has been warning of a recession and coming stock crash for months. The tech sector is showing a number of signs that valuations are an overstretched "timebomb," he said. AdvertisementThe stock market is flashing warning signs that the tech stock frenzy is about to end, according to one of Wall Street's most bearish analysts. "As time marches on, there are few of us left who were in the industry during the 2000 Nasdaq crash let alone the 1987 crash. Analysts are expecting tech stocks to post forward earnings growth of around 30% year-over-year, Edwards noted, though tech stocks have actually been posting around 20% yearly earnings growth.

Persons: Albert Edwards, —, He's, Edwards, Russell, Morgan Organizations: Service, Societe Generale, Nasdaq, Tech

☆ The small cap rally ‘has legs,’ says Citi’s stock strategist Scott Chronert
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-18 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

After a difficult two years for small cap stocks, the sector finally appears on path for a comeback, according to Citi Research head of U.S. equity strategy Scott Chronert. The small cap benchmark Russell 2000 index is up 4.3% week to date alone amid a 9.4% rally in July. As investors become more enthusiastic on the prospect of forthcoming interest rate cuts, they've started to sell off mega cap technology names — which have led the market rally — in favor of the rate-sensitive small cap sector. Banks currently have an "easier" valuation starting point, according to Chronert. The sector overall contains little exposure to tariffs — which has become a major campaign platform of former president Donald Trump.

Persons: Scott Chronert, they've, Chronert, CNBC's, Russell, Banks, Donald Trump Organizations: Citi Research, Federal, Trump, CNBC, Market, Survey

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Trump picks VP, Dow record close, bitcoin 'digital gold'
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-16 | by ( Abid Ali | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Record highThe Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at an all-time high after former President Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt. Trump's VP pickDonald Trump has chosen Senator JD Vance of Ohio as his vice presidential running mate for the 2024 election. Fed may not waitPowell said the central bank will not wait until inflation reaches its 2% target to cut interest rates. Fink believes bitcoin can offer uncorrelated returns and act as a hedge against currency debasement caused by excessive deficits.

Persons: Donald Trump, Russell, Jerome Powell, Trump's, JD Vance, Ohio, Trump, Vance, Biden, Powell, you've, Larry Fink, Fink, bitcoin, CNBC's, Goldman, Goldman Sachs, Denis Coleman, Colin Langan Organizations: CNBC, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, Federal, Truth, Trump, Republican, BlackRock, Goldman, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wall Locations: U.S, Wells

☆ Using 'bear put spreads' to cash in on a stock that's run too far, too fast
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-16 | by ( Nishant Pant | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

I feel like the stock has gone too far, too fast, however, and provide an options trade that wins if the shares pull back. Ross (ROST) has benefited significantly from this trend, with its stock rising by 20% over the past two-and-a-half months. Support and Resistance: Using basic support and resistance concepts, we can identify short-term resistance around the 150 level. With ROST trading around $148.08, my plan is to buy an at-the-money (ATM) put spread. Regardless of ROST's current trading price, my long strike will be set above the current price, and the short strike will be positioned below it.

Persons: ROST, Nishant Pant Organizations: Ross Stores, RSI, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL

☆ Markets expected to get a short-term boost after Trump survives shooting
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-15 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at the Butler Farm Show in Butler, Pennsylvania, U.S., July 13, 2024. Brendan Mcdermid | ReutersU.S. stocks are expected to get a short-term boost in the aftermath of the failed assassination of former president Donald Trump over the weekend, as analysts say the likelihood of his re-election in November has increased. "The events on Saturday, if they do anything, they strengthen the case for President Donald Trump to win the election in November. watch nowPolls showed Trump retaining his lead over President Joe Biden a day after the shooting at a Republican rally in Pennsylvania. "These events, as unfortunate as they are in terms of political change, do not really change the direction of global markets and the global economy," he said Monday.

Persons: Donald Trump, Brendan Mcdermid, Rob Casey, CNBC's, Trump, Casey, Brian Gardner, Joe Biden, Biden, Guillaume Menuet, It's Organizations: Reuters, Trump, Global Advisors, Republican, Democratic, BMI, Fitch Solutions, CNBC, EMEA, Citi Global Wealth Locations: Butler , Pennsylvania, U.S, Reuters U.S, Washington, Pennsylvania

☆ Tesla rally driven by 'retail puppy love' and won't last, warns Wells Fargo
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-15 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Tesla 's massive rally might soon run out of steam, Wells Fargo warned investors in a new note. Analyst Colin Langan reiterated his underweight rating on the electric vehicle manufacturer, contrasting with Wall Street's bullish sentiment. TSLA YTD mountain TSLA YTD chart Langan attributed the rally to temporary optimism driven by better deliveries, the approval of Elon Musk's compensation package , hype around Tesla's robotaxi and technical factors. Retail interest likely surged in recent months, while professional investors took the opportunity to cover short positions or raise underweight holdings. "The stock rose ~40% (S & P +4%) over the last month, mostly driven by 'razzle-dazzle' headlines as most fundamentals remain weak," Langan wrote in a report entitled, "Will retail puppy love last?"

Persons: Tesla, Wells, Colin Langan, Langan, Elon, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Tesla

☆ A part-time trader who gained 127% in 5 months this year shares how he finds stocks and an 'immediate' buy signal for an imminent breakout
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-13 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Read previewJohn Rodrigues works a full-time 9-to-5 job as an associate manager in operations at PGIM, Prudential's investment management arm. And vice versa, if the index is high, it signals high volatility and fearful investors, indicating that the market may be reaching a low. Here, he can see different metrics for stocks, allowing him to watch for signals he likes to trade on. He also looks at the stock's day's volume; if it rises above 25% of its 50-day volume, it's another likely trade. But perhaps one of the best signals that a breakout is about to really outperform the market is those with very high volume relative to the past two years.

Persons: —, John Rodrigues, doesn't, Bob Brinker, Brinker, Rodrigues, Norman Zadeh, " Rodrigues Organizations: Service, New York Stock Exchange, Business, Companies, Nasdaq, Investors Intelligence, IBD, Micro Locations: PGIM, Chicago

☆ A famed economist who called the 2008 recession shares 5 signs the US is on the brink of a downturn — all while the stock market shows concerning weakness beneath the surface of record highs
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-13 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

But don't bet on a soft landing outcome for the US economy as the Fed gets set to cut rates, says famed economist David Rosenberg. AdvertisementRosenberg ResearchRosenberg's downbeat views on the labor market come amid his skepticism about the impressive rallies in major stock-market indexes like the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500. Still, as Rosenberg points out, some say the Fed needs to act urgently as the labor market weakens. Waiting too long to lower interest rates to support the economy will only increase the odds of the job market breaking down." Rosenberg has been consistently bearish on the US economy in recent months, while the labor market has continued to prove him wrong.

Persons: —, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's, Eli Lilly, Russell, Neil Dutta, Dutta Organizations: Service, Fed, Rosenberg Research, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics ', Survey, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Macro

☆ Wall Street is bullish on stocks for the 2nd half of the year. Here are each firm's exact forecasts.
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-12 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The most bullish S&P 500 price target is 6,000 from Evercore ISI, which represents a gain of about 7%. While the average year-end S&P 500 price target is 5,429, according to data from Bloomberg, the median year-end price target is 5,600. Yardeni Research: S&P 500 price target of 5,800Yardeni Research raised its year-end S&P 500 price target to 5,800 from 5,400 this week. Goldman Sachs: S&P 500 price target of 5,600Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin boosted his S&P 500 price target to 5,600 from 5,200 last month. UBS: S&P 500 price target of 5,600UBS raised its S&P 500 price target to 5,600 from 5,400 in May, and that's after the bank raised its price target in February.

Persons: —, Julian Emanuel, Emanuel, they're, Oppenheimer, John Stoltzfus, Stoltzfus, Eric Wallerstein, Wallerstein, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin, Jonathan Golub Organizations: Wall, ISI, Service, Bloomberg, CNBC, Security, Yardeni, Research, Federal Reserve, Ned Davis Research, UBS, Chicago, & $ Locations: bearish

☆ Citi says take profits in AI 'highfliers,' gives safe alternatives if tech shares start to fall
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-09 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

It's time for investors to consider taking profits in some high-flying artificial intelligence names, according to Citi. The value of AI linchpin Nvidia has more than doubled year to date, while Super Micro Computer has tripled. Given this backdrop, Pettit recommends investors take profits in popular AI names — most notably the enabler stocks like semiconductors — and allocate funds "across the theme's value chain." MCD YTD mountain Shares this year Several popular consumer staples stocks are in the basket, including Kraft Heinz and J.M. Hartford Financial Services Group is the most negatively correlated stock in the basket, with shares up 25% this year.

Persons: propping, Drew Pettit, Pettit, Kraft Heinz, J.M, Chubb Organizations: Citi, Nvidia, Gilead Sciences, Hartford Financial Services, Allstate, Honeywell, Exxon Mobil . Correction Locations: Biopharmaceutical

☆ This software stock is about to hit heavy resistance. How to trade it with options
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-09 | by ( Nishant Pant | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

I believe Salesforce shares are about to hit resistance and there's an options trade that will win if the stock falters. Salesforce (CRM) dropped an eye-popping 22% despite beating earnings estimates in its last earnings report on May 29. As is common with growth stocks, which trade at a high valuation, beating earnings estimates is important, but even more crucial is forward guidance. The trade To construct my trade, I am selling a $265 call option which happens to coincide with upside gap fill resistance and buy a $270 call option as a single unit. As long as CRM doesn't go above $265 by my expiration date, this trade will return 30% ROI in 18 short days.

Persons: Nishant Pant Organizations: CRM, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL

☆ Goldman trader is on correction watch because everyone — including himself — is too bullish
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-08 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Goldman Sachs' Scott Rubner is now on correction watch because everyone, including himself, is too bullish on stocks, he said. "This is the last bullish U.S. Equity email that I will be sending out for now, as the last standing bears have capitulated and everyone is in the pool," Rubner wrote on Monday. Kolanovic came to prominence after forecasting a recovery during the coronavirus pandemic but had maintained a bleak outlook on equities over the past two years even as the S & P 500 surged to new highs. Rubner anticipates the S & P 500 could top out around mid-July. "Since 1928, July 17th has marked the local top for the month heading into a materially lower August," Rubner wrote.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Scott Rubner, Rubner, Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: U.S, Equity, JPMorgan

☆ CNBC Daily Open: French left-wing shock victory, Boeing guilty plea
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-08 | by ( Abid Ali | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. However, recent profit-taking and valuation concerns led to a pullback and a rare downgrade from a Wall Street analyst. Get the CNBC Daily Open report in your inbox every morning and keep up to date with the markets wherever you are. Kolanovic wasn't the only Wall Street strategist to be caught out by the bull run — but rival banks have incrementally increased their calls.

Persons: Skydance, David Ellison, Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Lori Calvasina, Calvasina, Tesla, Tom Narayan, Squawk, Narayan, Tom Sosnoff, Bill Ackman, Warren Buffett, Sosnoff, — CNBC's Pia Singh, Alex Harring, Holly Ellyatt, Ruxandra Iordache, Ryan Browne, Samantha Subin, Lim Hui Jie, Leslie Josephs Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Nvidia Nvidia, Wall, Paramount, Skydance Media, Paramount Global, Hollywood, Boeing, Justice Department, JPMorgan, RBC Capital Markets, RBC Locations: Hollywood

☆ Nvidia is poised to surge another 16% as signs point to 'exceedingly robust' demand for its next-gen Blackwell chip, UBS says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-08 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The bank said recent supply chain checks show "exceedingly robust" demand for Nvidia's next-gen chips. Nvidia's potential $5 EPS in 2025 would give it a valuation of 25.6x on a forward price-to-earnings basis. Based on recent supply chain checks, UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri said "demand momentum for Blackwell rack-scale systems remains exceedingly robust." Sell-side consensus estimates expect Nvidia to deliver earnings per share of $3.62 in 2025, which gives it a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 35x. Also boding well for more gains for Nvidia is the growing "wall of worry" surrounding the stock in recent weeks.

Persons: —, Timothy Arcuri, Blackwell, Nvidia's, Arcuri Organizations: UBS, Nvidia's, Service, Nvidia, Hopper

☆ The stock market will drop 32% in 2025 as the Fed fails to save the economy from a recession, research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-07 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500 will plunge 32% in 2025 as a recession finally hits the US economy, BCA Research predicts. The firm said the Fed will fail to prevent a recession as it takes its time cutting interest rates. And perhaps most importantly, the Fed's plan to blunt any economic decline via interest rate cuts simply won't work. For example, the average mortgage rate paid by consumers is around 4%, compared to current mortgage rates of around 7%. That means even if the Fed cuts interest rates and mortgage rates decline, the average mortgage rate paid by consumers will continue to rise.

Persons: —, Peter Berezin, Berezin Organizations: BCA Research, Service, Federal, Wall

☆ Why Nvidia just got a rare stock downgrade
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-05 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Nvidia stock was downgraded to 'Neutral' by NewStreet Research on valuation concerns. AdvertisementNvidia stock got a rare downgrade on Wall Street on Friday. Ferragu said that while Nvidia still has the strongest AI franchise amongst its competitors, a "more prudent view on the stock" is necessary after its year-to-date rally of 157%. Downbeat opinions on Nvidia are rare among Wall Street analysts, with 89% of the 72 analysts who cover the company rating the stock a "Buy," according to data from Bloomberg. AdvertisementFerragu's $135 price target falls in-line with the average 12-month price target on the stock at $134.77.

Persons: Pierre Ferragu, —, Ferragu Organizations: NewStreet Research, Service, Nvidia, NewStreet, Wall Street, Bloomberg

☆ The stage is set for 2 rate cuts this year, but investors need to be careful adding more exposure to the stock market, JPMorgan strategy chief says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Recent data sets the Fed up to cut interest rates twice this year, JPMorgan's David Kelly said. The bank's chief global strategist predicted Fed rate cuts were coming in September and December. Yet, he warned that stocks are expensive, and investors should be wary of adding exposure at high valuations. The chief global strategist predicted central bankers would begin dialing back interest rates at the September policy meeting, with another cut likely in December. But rate cuts shouldn't be the signal for investors to flock to the stock market, Kelly said.

Persons: JPMorgan's David Kelly, —, David Kelly, That's, Kelly, We've, John Hussman Organizations: Service, Asset, CNBC

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Tesla powers S&P 500, Nasdaq to record highs
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-04 | by ( Abid Ali | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Record highsThe S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite closed at record highs in a shortened session ahead of the July 4 Independence Day holiday. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell as the latest economic data indicated the jobs market was cooling. Despite some officials advocating for potential rate hikes, the Federal Open Market Committee ultimately decided to hold rates steady. [PRO] Tesla bull caseWedbush analyst Dan Ives raised his Tesla price target to $300 from $275, with a bull case of $400 by 2025.

Persons: Nela Richardson, Elliott Management's, Elliott, Bob Jordan, Gary Kelly, JPMorgan's Kolanovic, Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Dubravko, Dan Ives Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Dow Jones, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Federal, Market Committee, ADP, Southwest Airlines Locations: U.S

☆ RBC Wealth Management: Too early to turn bearish on markets
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRBC Wealth Management: Too early to turn bearish on marketsFrederique Carrier, head of investment strategy at RBC Wealth Management, outlines two factors that would "herald a more difficult time."

Organizations: RBC Wealth Management, Frederique

☆ Oil prices hold firm as traders wait on U.S. stockpile data for signs of where demand is heading
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-03 | by ( Spencer Kimball | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Crude oil futures held firm on Wednesday as traders waited for the latest round of U.S. inventory data for signs of whether gasoline demand is picking up. U.S. crude oil gained about 6% last month on expectations of a tighter third quarter with stockpiles forecast to draw down as summer fuel demand picked up. The Department of Energy will release the latest U.S. crude oil and gasoline stockpiles data at 10:30 a.m. Here are today's energy prices:Hurricane Beryl is barreling across the Caribbean and could hit the Texas Gulf Coast as a tropical storm on Saturday. "We used to think about hurricanes as unquestionably a potential bullish near-term development for oil markets, now the picture is not so clear," Croft told CNBC's "Last Call" on Tuesday evening.

Persons: Beryl, Helima Croft, Croft, CNBC's Organizations: Department, Energy, AAA, Texas Gulf, National Hurricane, RBC Capital Markets Locations: Caribbean, Texas Gulf Coast, U.S

☆ An options bet that wins if homebuilder stocks continue to weaken under high rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-03 | by ( Tony Zhang | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Back in late May I published a bearish thesis on the homebuilders and laid out a trade for D.R. Since then, homebuilders have continued to underperform the S & P 500 and as 10-year yields continue to climb back towards 4.5%. I believe that there is further downside and currently there is another opportunity to take another bearish trade on DHI. Just earlier this week the $140 support level was broken and we can now confirm a new bearish trend. The total risk on this trade would be $625 per contract if DHI is above $140 at expiration.

Persons: Horton, homebuilders, DHI Organizations: D.R, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: DHI

☆ One of the biggest bears in this bull market is leaving JPMorgan
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-03 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A top strategist at JPMorgan who was caught offside by the stock market rally is quitting the investment firm. Marko Kolanovic, who served as chief global markets strategist and co-head of global research, is leaving the bank to explore other opportunities, according to a source familiar with the internal announcement. In his place, Hussein Malik will become the sole head of global research, and Dubravko Lakos-Bujas will serve as chief markets strategist. Kolanovic rose to prominence among market watchers for correctly predicting a stock market rebound in the middle of the Covid-19 pandemic. JPMorgan's current year-end prediction for the S&P 500 is 4,200, while no other major firm in the CNBC Market Strategist Survey is below 5,200.

Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Hussein Malik, Dubravko, Kolanovic Organizations: JPMorgan, CNBC Market, ., Bloomberg News

☆ A full breakdown of the S&P 500's chart and what it indicates about the second half
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-02 | by ( Frank Cappelleri | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Let's look at what the the S & P 500's first half taught us about the chances for more gains in the second half. From Q1 1995 through Q2 1998, the S & P 500 was up 14 straight quarters. Below are four important factors we're continuing to watch closely into the year's second half. 116 of them are up more than the S & P 500 (+14.8%) through July 1 st , 2024. Good closes The S & P 500 has closed above its intra-day mid-point 77/125 trading days through Monday.

Persons: We've, That's, they'll, Frank Cappelleri Organizations: CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL

☆ Stock futures are little changed after S&P 500 rises to kick off back half of 2024: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-01 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. stock futures are little changed Monday night after the major averages closed higher to start the second half of 2024, as tech stocks outperformed. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 26 points, or 0.07%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures dipped 0.06% and 0.1%, respectively. The central bank leader will be part of a panel discussion and will not be issuing prepared remarks beforehand. He will join ECB President Christine Lagarde and Roberto Campos Neto, governor of Brazil's central bank.

Persons: Kevin Gordon, Charles Schwab, Gordon, Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Roberto Campos Neto, Sara Eisen, Dow Jones Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, European Central Bank Forum, ECB Locations: Brazil's

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