DIRS.INFO The most relevant business & tech news

☆ Jamie Dimon says the US can avoid a commercial real estate crisis if the economy sticks a soft landing
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-27 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said commercial property distress likely won't reach crisis levels. But the CEO dismissed analysts' estimates of 70%-80% odds of a "soft landing," saying he predicts "half of that." NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementJamie Dimon said the distress in the US commercial property sector won't become a full-blown crisis, and will only deteriorate if the US hits a recession.

Persons: Jamie Dimon, — Organizations: Service, JPMorgan Chase, CNBC, Business

☆ Distress soared 440% in a key corner of the commercial real estate debt market in the last year
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-26 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: 1 min

Distress in a corner of the commercial mortgage market rose 440% in the last year. Loans packaged into commercial real estate CLOs saw a big uptick in distress. Distress levels in an important corner of the commercial real estate debt market have rocketed higher in the last year. Commercial mortgages packaged into collateralized loan obligations and sold to investors as bonds saw a distress rate of 8.6% in January, marking a huge jump from the beginning of 2023 when the rate was 1.4%. The amount of outstanding loans packaged into CLOs is about $80 billion, according to a report by data and analytics firm CRED iQ.

Persons: CLOs Organizations: CLOs, Business

☆ The US is heading towards stagflation, which would be terrible news for stocks, JPMorgan says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-21 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

JPMorgan warned that today's economic situation could shift towards 1970s-era stagflation, characterized by high inflation and low growth. Such a situation would drive investors away from stocks towards fixed-income assets offering higher returns. JPMorgan says current geopolitical tensions have parallels to the 1970s and could similarly drive inflation. AdvertisementThe US economy is at risk of tilting towards stagflation, or a period marked by low growth and persistently high inflation, which would prompt investors to favor stocks over bonds, says JPMorgan. An uncertain geopolitical environment, combined with high interest rates, would likely reduce liquidity, JPMorgan said.

Persons: —, JPMorgan, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon Organizations: JPMorgan, Service Locations: Vietnam, Israel, Ukraine, China

☆ A closely watched gauge of economic activity says no recession headed for the US
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-20 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index fell to its lowest level since April 2020. It marks the first time since July 2022 that the gauge is not signaling a recession ahead. The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index– a gauge of future economic activity — dropped 0.4% to 102.7 in January, signaling the lowest level since April 2020 when the US economy was struck by the COVID-19 pandemic-spurred lockdowns. "The U.S. LEI fell further in January, as weekly hours worked in manufacturing continued to decline and the yield spread remained negative," the Conference Board's Justyna Zabinska-La Monica said on Tuesday. As a result, the leading index currently does not signal recession ahead."

Persons: —, LEI, Monica, Andrew Hollenhorst, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Conference Board, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S

☆ New home construction in the US plummeted to a 5-month low in January
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-20 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Housing starts collapsed 14.8% month-over-month in January to a five-month low, according to Census Bureau data released Friday. The decline in new construction flies against the trends of strong and rising demand throughout 2023 and into this year. It also marks a reversal from a period of rising supply seen recently, with new housing starts jumping 14.8% last November. David Rosenberg, economist and president of Rosenberg Research, said in a note that it's hard to determine how much seasonal factors like inclement weather played a part in sending construction starts tumbling last month. Rosenberg added that a strong pipeline of multifamily construction will continue to impact the market for the foreseeable future.

Persons: David Rosenberg, West . Rosenberg Organizations: Business, Rosenberg Research Locations: Midwest, West

☆ Troubled commercial real estate loans outstrip reserves at top US banks
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-20 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Reserves held by big banks as a buffer against loan losses dipped below the amount of delinquent commercial real estate debt, per the FT.Late payments on commercial mortgages have jumped in the past year. Commercial real estate loans at least 30 days delinquent soared to $9.3 billion among the top banks last year. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe volume of commercial mortgages at least 30 days late on payment soared past total reserves held by the largest US banks last year.

Persons: —, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo Organizations: Service, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, The Financial Times, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Business Locations: Wells

☆ The odds of no interest-rate cuts in 2024 are growing
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-20 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

In today’s big story, we’re looking at the chances of there being no rate cuts this year, and how the markets would react. What's on deck:This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. The big storyCuts are canceledAaron Schwartz/Xinhua via Getty ImagesDon't count your chickens before they hatch and don't price in your rate cuts before they materialize. Last December, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that three cuts were on the table for 2024, which he reiterated earlier this month. AdvertisementBonds could struggle, though, with further delays on rate cuts raising the risk that debt markets suffer another meltdown like they did last fall.

Persons: —, Mark Zuckerberg, Aaron Schwartz, ”, won’t, Jerome Powell, Phil Rosen, There's, BI’s Yuheng Zhan, NYCB’s, Ark's Cathie Wood, Paul Judge, Tessa Flippin, Claude Grunitzky, Gayle Jennings O'Byrne, Black VCs, Masayoshi Son, OpenAI’s, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover, Grace Lett Organizations: Service, UFC, Business, Xinhua, Getty, Federal, Paramount, Fed, Big Tech, JPMorgan Private Bank, Discover, Discover Financial, Nvidia, Opportunity, Equity Alliance, Wocstar Fund, Opportunity Fund, Equity Alliance Wocstar, Google, Walmart, Pandora, Home Locations: Japan, Ukraine, Moscow, Russia, Fox, New York, London, Chicago

☆ There's a 'meaningful' chance the Fed's next move is a rate hike, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-16 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

A wave of inflationary signals means that the Federal Reserve's next move could be a rate hike, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said. His read on recent key inflation indicators in January, including a 3.1% year-over-year increase in the consumer price index and a 0.9% rise in the producer price index, formed the basis of his rationale. When it comes to identifying deflationary trends in shelter prices, Summers noted that many economists tend to focus solely on rental markets. AdvertisementSummers noted that the Fed isn't going to want to let up too soon and risk cutting rates while inflation is still a problem. The disease tends to come back and it tends to be harder to go after the second time."

Persons: Larry Summers, Summers, there's Organizations: Federal, Bloomberg, Business

☆ Housing-market activity stalls in January amid uncertain rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-16 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . After showing stronger signs of life in recent months, activity in the US housing market shifted back to low gear in January. The culprit behind the slowdown has been more subdued expectations for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has, in turn, kept mortgage rates high. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.87% last week, an uptick after a period of steady declines.

Persons: —, Hal Bennett, Bennett Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Investors Locations: Bellevue , WA

☆ Investors bought a record 26% of the affordable houses in the US last quarter
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-15 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US property investors snapped up 26.1% of low-priced homes in the fourth quarter, a record share. Single-family homes accounted for more than two-thirds of investors' purchases in Q4, at 68.6%. Zooming in, low-priced homes accounted for 46.5% of investor purchases, with mid-priced homes at 24.6% and high-priced homes at 28.8%. Inventory is still low across the country as sellers cling to lower mortgage rates they locked in years ago. It's worth noting though that big institutions make up a small percentage of investors in the market buying homes.

Persons: —, Redfin, Carrie Caruthers, Sheharyar Organizations: Service, Department of Housing, Urban Development Locations: California

☆ 30-year mortgage rate rises to the highest level in 2 months
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate spiked to 6.87% in the last week, the highest level in two months. Elevated borrowing costs for prospective buyers sent mortgage applications lower. A hot inflation report for January is likely to keep borrowing costs elevated as the Fed stays hawkish. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped to 6.87% in the week ending February 9th, marking the highest level since early December 2023's average of 6.43%, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data released on Wednesday. AdvertisementThe uptick in mortgage rates reversed the declines seen over the past few months.

Persons: —, Joel Kan, bode, Redfin Organizations: Service, Mortgage Bankers Association Locations: American

☆ What the latest inflation data means for interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

In today's big story, we're looking at what a hotter-than-expected inflation report means for markets and the econom y . That silver lining doesn’t address the elephant in the room: What does the latest CPI data mean for interest rates? AdvertisementMadison Hoff/Noah Sheidlower/Business InsiderThe hot inflation report comes just a few weeks after some industry experts felt the market was in a perfect position. Stubbornly elevated inflation means Powell might be less willing to cut rates and risk further fueling inflation. It’s particularly painful for smaller companies, which tend to carry floating-rate debt more susceptible to elevated interest rates.

Persons: —, Angela Weiss, Insider’s Madison Hoff, BI’s Aruni Soni, Madison Hoff, Noah Sheidlower, we’ve, Jerome Powell, Powell, Jim Zelter, BI’s Yuheng Zhan, Alyssa Powell, Peter Thiel, bitcoin, Noah Berger Sam Altman’s, Jensen Huang, Altman's, Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, Bezos, Rob Dobi, doomsayers, Brace, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb, George Glover Organizations: Business, Service, Dow Jones, Bank of America, Apollo Global Management, Federal Reserve Bank of New, BlackRock, Strategic Investors Group, BI, Fund, Reuters, Apple Vision, BI Sky, Employees, Cisco Systems, Sony, McLaren Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Dubai, Miami, Washington, New York, London

☆ Small business sentiment dropped by most in 13 months in January as inflation, labor costs bite
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Small business owners' confidence level dropped in January, the National Federation of Independent Business said. AdvertisementSmall business sentiment logged the biggest drop in 13 months in January as business owners say inflation and high labor costs are creating headwinds. On top of that, small business owners anticipating increased sales in the next three months declined to -16% from -4% the prior month. "In January, optimism among small business owners dropped as inflation remains a key obstacle on Main Street." "The weaker small business optimism print seems at odds with a notable increase in consumer confidence during January," Wells Fargo said in a note.

Persons: —, NFIB, they're, Bill Dunkelberg, Wells Fargo Organizations: National Federation of Independent Business, Service, Federal Reserve, Fed

☆ Corporate borrowers are coming under stress even as the rest of the economy looks strong, top Apollo exec says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

There are "pockets of stress" within an otherwise strong US economy, Apollo's co-president Jim Zelter said. Many corporate borrowers are grappling with high debt and a slow recovery from the pandemic. AdvertisementCorporate borrowers represent "pockets of stress" within an otherwise robust economy, according to Apollo Global Management co-president Jim Zelter. A string of strong economic indicators has been released in recent weeks. The conundrum for investors has been that strong economic data pushes back on expectations for rate cuts in the near-term.

Persons: Jim Zelter, Zelter, —, there's, it's Organizations: Service, Apollo Global Management, Bloomberg, Fed

☆ New rules for banks would be the 'end of real-estate finance as we know it,' MBA says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Basel III proposals would cripple commercial property financing, MBA CEO Bob Broeksmit said. "Basel III could be the end of bank real-estate finance as we know it," Broeksmit said. Basel III could be the end of bank real-estate finance as we know it," Broeksmit said at the CREF 24 conference in San Diego on Monday. This isn't the first time Basel III has raised alarms, and some groups outside of the banking industry have also criticized the proposals as too stifling. Consumer groups last month joined the chorus of bankers in calling for the rejection of the Basel III proposal over fears that it would strangle credit availability for underserved borrowers.

Persons: Bob Broeksmit, Broeksmit, —, They're Organizations: Service, Mortgage Bankers Association, Consumer, Basel III Locations: Basel, San Diego, Washington ,

☆ US banks have loaned $1 trillion to less regulated 'shadow banks'
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-12 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

US banks have given out $1 trillion of loans to non-regulated "shadow banks." Regulators said that these alternative lenders increase banks' exposure to higher risk debt. Several major banks including Citigroup and Wells Fargo have strengthened their ties with alternative asset lenders. AdvertisementThe amount of loans made by US banks to less regulated shadow lenders surpassed $1 trillion in January. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.

Persons: — Organizations: Regulators, Citigroup, Service, US Federal Reserve, Business Locations: Wells

☆ The commercial real estate crisis will prompt the Fed's first rate cut in May, top economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Yet, nearing mission-accomplished on inflation won't be the reason the central bank cuts rates, according to one top economist. Instead, Komal Sri-Kumar, president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, says that the ongoing commercial real estate crisis will force the Fed to cut rates as early as May. Lessons from the 2008 crisis show that the Fed should cut sooner rather than later to avoid the worst of the pain, Sri-Kumar said. The fears stem in part from exposure to commercial real estate. "The commercial real estate problem is also now in Europe.

Persons: —, Komal, Kumar, Lehman, Janet Yellen, it's, China's, Jerome Powell, Tom Lee Organizations: Service, Sri, Kumar, Business, Lehman Brothers, York Community Bank, Evergrande Locations: China, Europe, Japan

☆ US CEOs say they are feeling optimistic about the economy for the first time in 2 years
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-08 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

American CEOs are finally feeling more upbeat about the US economy, with the mood turning more positive for the first time in two years. Notably, the latest survey marks the first time the gauge has returned a positive reading since the first quarter of 2022. More CEOs also say they expect to expand their workforce in the next 12 months. Additionally, the percentage of leaders holding a bleak outlook for the economy dropped from 47% to just 27%. A resolution to the current military conflicts, AI advancements, and potential rate cuts were listed as the biggest potential positive developments for global business in 2024.

Persons: Roger W, Ferguson, Jr, Major Organizations: Business, Conference, Federal Reserve Locations: Israel, Ukraine, Russia, China

☆ Commercial real estate investment plummeted to the lowest level since 2012 last year
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-08 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewThe US commercial real estate market saw a steep drop in investment last year, with capital flows into the market plummeting by more than 50% to the lowest level since 2012. That brought the full-year investment total to $348 billion, a 52% decline from 2022, according to CBRE. CBRE noted a 91% year-over-year drop in direct real estate company investments to $1.4 billion in Q4, citing increased financing costs. New York took the lead with $33 billion in investment, followed by Los Angeles at $30 billion. AdvertisementThe dimming outlook for commercial real estate —offices in particular — is linked to the tighter financing conditions that many commercial landlords now face.

Persons: —, CBRE, Barry Sternlicht Organizations: Service, Business, New York, Los, Starwood Capital, Capital Locations: Los Angeles

☆ Younger Americans are falling behind on credit card and car payments, New York Fed says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-06 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Delinquencies are rising among younger borrowers in particular, the New York Fed said. Younger borrowers have surpassed pre-pandemic levels of credit card delinquencies. AdvertisementYounger Americans are falling behind on paying credit card and auto loans, with the rate of late payments rising above pre-pandemic levels in the last quarter, the New York Federal Reserve said in a report. Total credit card balances hit $1.13 trillion and auto loans outstanding increased to $1.61 trillion. Advertisement"Serious credit card delinquencies increased across all age groups, notably with younger borrowers surpassing pre-pandemic levels," New York Fed researchers wrote.

Persons: — Organizations: New York Fed, Service, New York Federal Reserve, NY Fed, Fed

☆ The US Treasury will reportedly send officials to China to smooth out economic tensions between the superpowers
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-05 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The Treasury will send officials to China this week to discuss a range of economy issues, the NYT reported. Talks will revolve around business and market practices that have put the superpowers at odds. President Joe Biden and Xi Jinping agreed last year to communicate more on economic issues. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy .

Persons: Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, —, haven't Organizations: Treasury, Service, New York Times, Business Locations: China

☆ The Fed pushed back against imminent rate cuts this week. Here's what that means for the housing market.
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-01 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

More importantly, though was Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's pushback against the idea that rate cuts are imminent. So, what does this mean for the housing market, which is eagerly anticipating lower rates to make housing even slightly more affordable? According to Redfin, pushing out timelines for Fed rate cuts means mortgage rates are likely to remain elevated for longer this year, but it doesn't mean relief is off the table for homebuyers in 2024. "Regardless of any short-term volatility in mortgage rates, we expect rates to come down gradually throughout the year," Redfin's Chen Zhao wrote following the Fed meeting. AdvertisementThe real estate group notes that other forces are at work in the mortgage market as well, and the Fed isn't the only input.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell's pushback, Redfin's Chen Zhao, Redfin, we'll, Powell, Fannie Mae Organizations: Service, Reserve, Business, US Department of, Treasury, Bank of America

☆ China rolls out fresh property relief measures to stem the fallout from Evergrande's meltdown
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Officials in China are boosting property sector relief measures to blunt the impact of Evergrande's collapse. The new measures are part of a wider series of economy-boosting initiatives, especially in the real estate sector, which constitutes one-quarter of the country's economy. The crisis in the property sector stems from huge debt and overbuilding in the last decade, which has resulted in a liquidity crisis for many property developers, including Evergrande. The company's troubles sent country's property sector into a tailspin starting in 2022 when it defaulted on some of its offshore bonds. China is moving mountains to hold the real estate sector's crisis from pouring into other sectors.

Persons: — Organizations: Service, Beijing, China's Ministry of Housing, China Mingsheng Banking Corp, China Securities Journal, Guangzhou, Reuters, Bloomberg Locations: China, Hong Kong, Nanning, Guangxi, Chongqing, Suzhou, Shanghai, restructurings

☆ The office meltdown will result in $1 trillion of losses, real estate billionaire Barry Sternlicht says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Billionaire Starwood CEO Barry Sternlicht sees losses on office properties hitting $1 trillion, per Bloomberg. Office values have plummeted as remote work proves to be a lasting legacy of the pandemic. AdvertisementThe ailing office market is headed for $1 trillion of losses, billionaire and Starwood Capital CEO Barry Sternlicht said. Per Bloomberg, Sternlicht said at the Global Alts conference in Miami Beach that US office properties, once a $3 trillion market, are worth about $1.8 trillion now. The cratering values have been the result of remote work being solidified as a lasting legacy of the COVID-19 era.

Persons: Barry Sternlicht, —, Per, Sternlicht Organizations: Starwood, Bloomberg, Service, Starwood Capital, Per Bloomberg, Global, Business Locations: Miami Beach

☆ Global trade will fall this year amid slower growth and Red Sea turmoil, WTO official says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-29 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Read previewThe World Trade Organization is likely to slash 2023 and 2024 trade projections due amid weaker-than-expected global economic activity and disruptive attacks by Houthi militants in the Red Sea. The WTO previously projected a rise of 0.8% in merchandise trade volumes for 2023 and a 3.3% increase for 2024. Ossa said the WTO would publish updated forecasts in the coming months, and various global organizations have trimmed their GDP growth forecasts this year, impacting the WTO's trade predictions. He also emphasized a growing uptick in consumer prices due to surging shipping costs since the Houthi attacks began. The Galaxy Leader cargo ship is escorted by Houthi boats in the Red Sea in this photo released November 20, 2023.

Persons: —, Ralph Ossa, Ossa, haven't, Joe Biden Organizations: Service, Trade Organization, Business, WTO, Reuters, Galaxy Leader, Houthi Military Locations: Red, Iran, Suez, Europe

Search resuls for: "Yuheng"

25 mentions found