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The Bank of England's Deputy Governor, Monetary Policy, Ben Broadbent speaks at a press conference at the Bank of England, London, Britain, May 11, 2023. The BoE said earlier this month that borrowing costs were likely to stay high for some time as it raised rates for the 14th time in a row. Investors expect another increase in the BoE's Bank Rate to 5.5% from its current level of 5.25% on Sept. 21, after the next scheduled meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee. Broadbent said the BoE's stance on interest rates would respond to "the evidence on spare capacity, and to indicators of domestic inflation, as and when it comes through." The chair of the Federal Reserve, Jay Powell, told the Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers on Friday that the Fed may need to interest rates further.
Persons: Ben Broadbent, Henry Nicholls, JACKSON, Broadbent, BoE, Jay Powell, Jackson, William Schomberg, Paul Sandle, Christina Fincher Organizations: of England's, Monetary, Bank of England, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, , Wyoming, United States, Ukraine, BoE's, Russia
The BoE said earlier this month it only saw inflation falling below 4% from the second quarter of 2024. The PMI survey recorded the slowest growth in output prices since February 2021. Manufacturers - who make up 10% of Britain's economy - reported the biggest fall in output prices since February 2016, echoing wider weakness in the sector. "Companies are reporting reduced orders for goods and services as demand is increasingly hit by the cost-of-living crisis, higher interest rates, export losses and concerns about the economic outlook," Williamson said. Manufacturers said this fall appeared to be an attempt to reduce the need for working capital at a time of rising interest rates.
Persons: Carl Recine, BoE, Queen, Chris Williamson, Sterling, James Smith, P's Williamson, Williamson, David Milliken, William Schomberg, Hugh Lawson Organizations: REUTERS, PMI, P, P Global Market Intelligence, Bank of England, ING, Manufacturers, Thomson Locations: Altrincham, Britain
But signs of a slowdown are mounting, highlighting the BoE's dilemma as it continues to grapple with inflation. But the BoE looks set to keep on raising rates with inflation still more than three times its 2% target. Below are key readings of Britain's economy that the BoE will assess before its next scheduled announcement on interest rates on Sept. 21. But many analysts expect the lagged impact of the BoE's rate rises to hit spending soon, adding to the drag on the economy. Many economists think the delayed impact of higher interest rates and still elevated inflation will hit growth in the coming months.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, BoE, Andrew Bailey, GfK, Sumanta Sen, Devika Organizations: REUTERS, Bank, Bank of England, Brexit, P, CIPS, Nationwide, Halifax, Reuters Graphics LABOUR, Employers, European Union, Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: Britain
Net borrowing, excluding state-owned banks, stood at 4.3 billion pounds ($5.49 billion) last month, less than the median forecast of 5.0 billion pounds in a Reuters poll of economists. In the first four months of the financial year, borrowing stood at 56.6 billion pounds. "As inflation slows, it's vital that we don’t alter our course and continue to act responsibly with the public finances," Hunt said in a statement after the data. Interest costs rose by 1.5 billion pounds compared with July last year to 7.7 billion pounds, the highest for July since records began in April 1997. The public finances were boosted by inflows of self-assessed income tax receipts which are typically strong in July, which stood at 11.8 billion pounds, 2.5 billion pounds more than in July last year.
Persons: Jeremy Hunt, Jessica Taylor, Handout, Hunt, Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss's, Ruth Gregory, Gregory, Gabriella Dickens, William Schomberg, Sachin Ravikumar, Andrew Heavens, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: REUTERS Acquire, Reuters, Bank of England, Conservative Party, Treasury, Capital Economics, Senior, National Statistics, Britain's, Thomson Locations: London, Britain
Asking prices for UK homes drop sharply - Rightmove
  + stars: | 2023-08-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
REUTERS/Toby Melville/File photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Aug 21 (Reuters) - Asking prices for homes in Britain fell sharply this month as rising mortgage costs caused sellers to lower their expectations of what they can get for their properties, an industry survey showed on Monday. Website Rightmove said average asking prices for homes dropped by 1.9%, the biggest monthly fall for August since 2018 and twice as steep as the usual summertime fall. Mortgage lenders Nationwide and Halifax both previously reported falls in selling prices in July. Rightmove's survey also showed the number of home sales was down 15% compared with 2019, before the pandemic. Average asking prices for homes were 2% below their peak in May but, reflecting the surge in demand during the pandemic, remained 19% higher than in August 2019, Rightmove said.
Persons: Toby Melville, Rightmove, William Schomberg, Suban Abdulla Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of England, Nationwide, Halifax, Homes, Thomson Locations: Bristol, Britain
UK jobs market lost some of its heat in July - survey
  + stars: | 2023-08-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
LONDON, Aug 21 (Reuters) - Britain's labour market is losing some of its inflationary heat with vacancies and advertised starting salaries falling in July for the first time this year, according to a survey published on Monday. Job search website Adzuna also said the number of job-seekers per vacancy rose slightly in July but the overall state of the labour market remained tight. The Bank of England is looking closely at the labour market as it considers how much further it needs to raise interest rates to smother high inflation. Adzuna said employers were becoming more secretive about pay rates as the labour market cooled with over half of adverts not disclosing salary details for the first time. Writing by William Schomberg, Editing by Kylie MacLellanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Adzuna, Andrew Hunter, William Schomberg, Kylie MacLellan Organizations: The Bank of England, Thomson
Official data showed sales volumes last month were 1.2% lower than in June. Food stores sales volumes fell by a monthly 2.6% while non-food stores sales volumes fell by 1.7%. However, July's data represented only the second time that sales volumes fell on a month-to-month basis so far in 2023, suggesting resilience in consumer demand. Market research firm GfK reported last month that consumer confidence fell in July for the first time since January. Retail sales volumes were 3.2% lower than a year earlier, the ONS said, compared with economists' forecasts for a 2.1% decline.
Persons: Sterling, Heather Bovill, Ruth Gregory, GfK, Samuel Tombs, BoE, Tombs, Spencer, James Davey, Kate Holton, Susan Fenton Organizations: Reuters, Office, National Statistics, Department, Bank of England, Capital Economics, Macroeconomics, Thomson
LONDON, Aug 16 (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said he was committed to the government's mechanism for increasing state pensions even though it is likely to cost billions of pounds more than usual given high inflation. The pension triple lock is a government promise to raise publicly funded pensions by the level of earnings, inflation or 2.5%, whichever is highest. "Of course the government is committed to its policy on the triple lock," Sunak told ITV News on Wednesday when asked whether he would stick to the pledge despite the rate of inflation. "When I set out that target people said 'oh that's very easy he’s not ambitious enough'," he told ITV. "I thought it was an ambitious target, but it's right to be ambitious for our country."
Persons: Rishi Sunak, Sunak, Jeremy Hunt, William Schomberg, Kylie MacLellan Organizations: British, ITV News, Bank of, ITV, Thomson Locations: that's
The ONS said falling gas and electricity prices were the biggest driver behind the drop in inflation, while food price inflation also eased. Despite the drop in the headline figure, Britain retains one of the highest rates of price growth in Western Europe, with only Iceland and Austria suffering higher inflation. The BoE is watching core inflation - which strips out volatile food and energy prices - and consumer services prices closely. Services inflation picked up to 7.4% from 7.2% in June. Financial markets on Wednesday showed a roughly two-thirds chance that the BoE's Bank Rate will hit 6% in February, up from 5.25% now.
Persons: Phil Noble, BoE, Sterling, Ruth Gregory, Jeremy Hunt, Andy Bruce, William Schomberg Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of, National Statistics, U.S, ONS, Bank, Capital Economics, Financial, Manufacturers, Thomson Locations: Altrincham, Britain, Bank of England, Western Europe, Iceland, Austria, BoE's
Annual pay growth including bonuses also accelerated, hitting 8.2%, the fastest outside the coronavirus pandemic period when government job subsidies distorted the data. Two-year British government bond yields, which are sensitive to speculation about BoE rate changes, hit their highest level in a month. Samuel Tombs, an economist with Pantheon Macroeconomics, said wage increases were set to slow in the second half of 2023. "The momentum in wage growth still is too strong for the Committee to take a break just yet," Tombs said. However, inactivity due to long-term sickness rose to a new record high, adding to the problems for employers seeking to fill job vacancies and adding to the pressure on pay growth.
Persons: BoE, Sterling, Samuel Tombs, Tombs, Andrew Bailey, Bailey, it's, Sharon Graham, Sachin Ravikumar, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Reuters, Sterling, Bank of England, Pantheon, Public, Unite, Union, Thomson Locations: Britain
Pay expectations in the public sector rose to 4%, the highest recorded by the CIPD, from 3.3%. Growth in earnings excluding bonuses - which typically runs slightly higher than pay settlements - was an annual 7.3% in the three months to May. The CIPD said businesses were also becoming more likely to match or exceed pay offers by rivals for their staff. However, almost a third of employers believed counteroffers were ineffective at keeping staff. "For some employers, counteroffers may only be valuable as a short-term option and ... employees will move if wider aspects of the job, such as workload, autonomy and environment, don't meet their expectations," the CIPD said.
Persons: Rishi Sunak, BoE, David Milliken, William Schomberg Organizations: Chartered Institute, Personnel, Private, of England, Data, Thomson
UK considers response to US ban on tech investments in China
  + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
A worker adjusts British and China (R) national flags on display for a signing ceremony at the seventh UK-China Economic and Financial Dialogue "Roundtable on Public-Private Partnerships" at Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing, China September 21, 2015. REUTERS/Andy Wong/File PhotoLONDON, Aug 10 (Reuters) - Britain said on Thursday it was weighing how to respond to a decision by U.S. President Joe Biden to prohibit some tech investments in China, adding it was continuing to assess potential national security risks. The U.S. government has said the measures are designed to address national security risks. A spokesperson for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's government said the executive order gave important clarity on the U.S. approach: "The UK will consider these new measures closely as we continue to assess potential national security risks attached to some investments." British investment in Hong Kong stood at 77.6 billion pounds.
Persons: Andy Wong, Joe Biden, Biden, Rishi Sunak's, James, Sunak, Kate Holton, William Schomberg, Sharon Singleton Organizations: China Economic, Public, REUTERS, U.S, Treasury, Thomson Locations: China, Diaoyutai, Beijing, Britain, U.S, London, Hong Kong, Xinjiang, United States
REUTERS/Umit BektasLONDON, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Britain said it had struck a deal with Turkey in a bid to slow the flow of illegal immigrants passing through the Mediterranean country on their way to Europe, including joint police operations against smuggler rings and the trade in boat parts. Customs data would be exchanged more quickly under the new memorandum of understanding, the British government said in a statement on Tuesday. "Our partnership with Turkey, a close friend and ally, will enable our law enforcement agencies to work together on this international problem and tackle the small boat supply chain," interior minister Suella Braverman said. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak made cutting the numbers of illegal migrants arriving in Britain a key pledge for this year as he tried to narrow the wide lead of the opposition Labour Party in opinion polls. Writing by William Schomberg; Editing by Alex RichardsonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Suella Braverman, Rishi Sunak, William Schomberg, Alex Richardson Organizations: Turkish Coast Guard, REUTERS, British, Labour Party, Thomson Locations: Lesbos, Canakkale, Turkey, Britain, Europe, Turkish
But the decline in house prices has so far been small compared with the surge in valuations during the COVID pandemic. Kim Kinnaird, director of Halifax Mortgages, said house prices were likely to continue falling into next year, echoing previous comments by the lender. A Reuters poll of analysts published in early June pointed to a 3% fall in house prices in 2023 before flat-lining in 2024. This should leave house prices 10.5% below their peak on the Nationwide measure." Nationwide, another mortgage lender, said last week its index of house prices fell by the most since 2009 in the 12 months to July.
Persons: Susannah Ireland, Kim Kinnaird, Kinnaird, Imogen Pattison, William Schomberg, Kate Holton, Bernadette Baum Organizations: City of, REUTERS, Halifax, Bank of England, Capital Economics, Nationwide, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, South London, Britain, Halifax
NatWest cuts forecast peak for BoE rates to 5.5% from 6%
  + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: 1 min
Signage at a branch of NatWest Bank pictured in central London, May 21, 2008. REUTERS/Luke MacGregor/File PhotoLONDON, Aug 3 (Reuters) - NatWest Markets cut its forecast for the peak in Bank of England interest rates to 5.5% after the BoE's announcement of a latest rate hike and new guidance on Thursday, down from 6% it previously forecast. "We are revising our Bank Rate forecast and now look for just one more 25bp hike to 5.5% in September," NatWest Markets' chief UK economist, Ross Walker, wrote in a note to clients. "The apparent rowing-back in the MPC's policy-tightening guidance leaves us comfortable maintaining our negative bias on sterling," NatWest added. Reporting by David Milliken Editing by William SchombergOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Luke MacGregor, Ross Walker, David Milliken, William Schomberg Organizations: NatWest Bank, REUTERS, NatWest, Bank of, NatWest Markets, Thomson Locations: London, Bank, Bank of England
A pedestrian carrying an umbrella walks near the Bank of England in the City of London, Britain, July 30, 2023. Market expectations for peak Bank Rate reached 6.5% on July 11 after data showed record wage growth before falling back to 5.75% after a sharp decline in consumer price inflation. Investors see a two-in-three chance of the BoE raising Bank Rate to 5.25% on Thursday but for most economists polled by Reuters the BoE's decision is finely balanced. However, some BoE critics argue it risks causing an unnecessary downturn, and that higher rates are a poor tool to tackle inflation caused by higher food and energy prices. "The main winners are banks, whose profits have flourished thanks to higher rates," said Fran Boait, co-executive director of campaign group Positive Money.
Persons: Hollie Adams, Bailey, BoE, Rishi Sunak, James Smith, Smith, Andrew Bailey, Dave Ramsden, Swati Dhingra, Silvana Tenreyro, Megan Greene, Fran Boait, ING's Smith, David Milliken, William Schomberg, Giles Elgood Organizations: Bank of England, City of, REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Mortgage, Investors, Reuters, ING, Kroll Institute, Monetary, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, Germany
A woman carrying a Union Flag umbrella stands near the Bank of England in the City of London, Britain, July 30, 2023. Analysts and investors are mostly expecting a quarter-point increase in Bank Rate, taking it to a 15-year high of 5.25%. But they also say they must quash an inflation rate that is the highest among major economies. INFLATION THREATBritish consumer price inflation fell by more than expected in June to 7.9% in annual terms, down sharply from 8.7% in May. Reuters GraphicsHOUSING MARKETThe most obvious impact of the increase in the BoE's Bank Rate from 0.1% in December 2021 to the current 5.0% has been in the housing market.
Persons: Adams, BoE, Andrew Bailey, Bailey, GfK, Sumanta Sen, Kripa Jayaram, Vincent Flasseur, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: Flag, Bank of England, City of, REUTERS, Analysts, Reuters, Nationwide, Halifax, insolvencies, Reuters Graphics LABOUR, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, BoE's, England, Wales, Germany
Although borrowing remains high after the shocks of the coronavirus pandemic and last year's energy price surge, the budget deficit in June stood at 18.5 billion pounds ($23.8 billion), down by 0.4 billion pounds from June 2022. A Reuters poll of economists had pointed to higher borrowing of 22 billion pounds last month. "Now more than ever we need to maintain discipline with the public finances," Hunt said after Friday's borrowing figures. As this week's fall in inflation showed, we will start to see results if we stick to our plan to halve inflation, grow the economy and get debt falling." However, a measure of consumer confidence fell in July for the first time since January as households felt the hit from higher inflation, borrowing costs and taxes.
Persons: Hunt, Jeremy Hunt, Rishi Sunak, Samuel Tombs, Tombs, Martin Beck, Beck, David Milliken, Angus MacSwan Organizations: LONDON, Conservative Party, National Statistics, Conservatives, Pantheon, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Britain
UK two-year fixed mortgage rates fall for first time since May
  + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
REUTERS/Phil Noble/File PhotoLONDON, July 20 (Reuters) - A key British mortgage rate fell on Thursday for the first time in nearly two months, coming off the previous day's 15-year high as concerns about the outlook for inflation and Bank of England interest rates eased. The average two-year fixed residential mortgage rate - the most common form of home finance - fell to 6.79%, its first drop since May 27, from 6.81% on Wednesday, figures from financial data provider Moneyfacts showed. Those concerns in turn pushed two-year fixed-rate mortgages above the peak they hit last October, when then Prime Minister Liz Truss' budget plans caused turmoil in Britain's bond market. However, a lower-than-expected consumer price inflation reading on Wednesday caused BoE rate rise expectations to weaken and pushed down two-year swap rates which underpin mortgage borrowing costs. The average interest rate for a mortgage with a five-year fixed-rate period also fell on Thursday, edging down to 6.31% from 6.33% on Wednesday, Moneyfacts said.
Persons: Phil Noble, BoE, Liz Truss, Moneyfacts, Suban Abdulla, William Schomberg Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of, Moneyfacts, Investors, Thomson Locations: Manchester, Britain, Bank of England, BoE's
Market research firm GfK's headline gauge of consumer confidence fell to -30 this month from -24 in June, the first decline since January, and below the -26 forecast in a Reuters poll of economists. The fall was the biggest month-on-month drop in GfK's confidence measure since March to April 2022 when inflation accelerated after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Staton said the recent slowdown in inflation will do little to improve consumer confidence. The Bank of England has increased interest rates at 13 meetings in a row since the end of 2021, raising its Bank Rate to 5% in June. The resilience of consumer confidence in the first half of this year was helped by low levels of unemployment and separate data published on Friday showed employers still seeking to hire.
Persons: Joe Staton, Staton, " Staton, Neil Carberry, Suban Abdulla, William Schomberg Organizations: Bank of, Confederation, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Bank of England
Sterling weakened against the U.S. dollar and the euro as the Office for National Statistics said the consumer price inflation growth rate was its lowest since March 2022 but stayed above the pace of price growth in other big, rich economies. The BoE said in May it expected June inflation would fall to 7.9%. Economists polled by Reuters had expected the core measure of price growth to hold at 7.1%. Reuters GraphicsFood price and non-alcoholic drinks price inflation slowed to 17.3% - still a major strain on the finances of many households - from 18.3% in May. Services prices, also monitored closely by the BoE, rose by 7.2% in annual terms, slowing from 7.4% in the 12 months to May.
Persons: Sterling, BoE, Paul Dales, Rishi Sunak, Jeremy Hunt, Hunt, William Schomberg, Andy Bruce, Kate Holton, Catherine Evans Organizations: Reuters, Bank of, Bank of England, U.S ., National Statistics, Capital Economics, Investors, Reuters Graphics, Labour Party, Sunak's Conservative Party of, Manufacturers, Thomson Locations: Bank of England, Britain
The BoE said in May it expected June inflation would fall to 7.9%, moving further away from October's 41-year high of 11.1% but still way above its 2% target. Economists polled by Reuters had expected the core measure of price growth to hold at 7.1%. Despite June's drop, Britain's inflation rate remains the highest among the world's top seven rich economies. In Western Europe, only Iceland had a higher rate of inflation in June. Suren Thiru, Economics Director at ICAEW, an accountancy body, said July's inflation rate was likely to slow to below 7%.
Persons: Sterling, BoE, James Smith ,, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, Rishi Sunak, Jeremy Hunt, Hunt, William Schomberg, William James, Sarah Young, Catherine Evans Organizations: Reuters, Bank of, Bank of England, U.S ., Reuters Graphics, National Statistics, Labour Party, Sunak's Conservative Party of, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Manufacturers, Thomson Locations: Bank of England, May's, Western Europe, Iceland, Britain
For markets, BoE communication is bottom of the class
  + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank expectations have meanwhile risen only marginally. For investors, clear communication from central bankers is crucial as they transmit their policy to borrowing costs through markets. The BoE was the first major central bank to start hiking rates. In contrast, they have long bet on more hikes than the BoE's main forecasts have implied are needed to tame inflation, rates futures show. BoE messaging, suggesting a reluctance to hike, has made it "very difficult" to own gilts recently, he said.
Persons: BoE, Toby Melville, Shamik Dhar, Andrew Bailey, Bailey, Schroders, Azad Zangana, Zangana, Liz Truss, Myles Bradshaw, Chris Jeffery, Jerome, Powell, Christine, Lagarde, it's, Craig, Yoruk, Dhara Ranasinghe, William Schomberg, John Stonestreet Organizations: Bank of England, REUTERS, Fed, ECB, of England, Traders, . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, BNY Mellon Investment Management, Bank of England's, Investors, Graphics, of England's, Reuters, Asset Management, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, U.S, Dhar
But the Resolution Foundation think-tank said younger people could benefit from the partial reversal of the decades-long climb in the value of household wealth. "The future path of interest rates is very uncertain," Ian Mulheirn, Research Associate at the Resolution Foundation, said. "The current surge could be a blip, or herald a new era for the UK. The Resolution Foundation said 2.1 trillion pounds ($2.75 trillion) had been lost in terms of household wealth over the last year after an unprecedented surge in recent decades which took wealth to 17.5 trillion pounds in 2021. Younger people could also feel the benefit of higher rates on their pension savings, the foundation said.
Persons: Ian Mulheirn, Mubin Haq, William Schomberg Organizations: Bank of England, Seven, abrdn, Trust, Thomson Locations: Britain
"The burst of business optimism seen in the spring has faded under the weight of inflation and rising interest rates," Deloitte's chief economist, Ian Stewart, said. The survey showed early signs of cooling in the labour market with CFOs signalling a further easing in recruitment difficulties and a slowdown in wage growth. The survey of 69 CFOs - 13 of them from FTSE 100 firms and 21 from FTSE 250 companies - was conducted between June 15 and June 27. The CBI called on the government to deliver a clear and stable policy environment and offer incentives for investment, among other measures. ($1 = 0.7625 pounds)Reporting by William Schomberg, editing by David MillikenOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Ian Stewart, Corporates, Rain Newton, Smith, William Schomberg, David Milliken Organizations: Finance, Deloitte, Bank of England, of British Industry, CBI, Thomson
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