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☆ Dollar firms on rate hike views after Fed minutes, yen treads water
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SINGAPORE, July 6 (Reuters) - The dollar was broadly higher on Thursday, after the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting cemented market expectations for a rate hike this month. Against the dollar, the euro touched a near one-week low of $1.0843 in early Asia trade, while sterling dipped 0.08% to $1.26925. Markets are now pricing in an 89% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at its policy meeting later this month, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Elsewhere, the yen rose more than 0.2% to 144.30 per dollar, as worries over potential intervention from Japanese authorities to shore up the yen capped its decline. The Chinese yuan last bought 7.2593 per dollar in the offshore market , after having fallen about 0.4% the previous session.

Persons: Alvin Tan, Sean Callow, it's, Rae Wee, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: Federal, Treasury, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, Fed, Westpac, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, China

☆ RBA to raise cash rate to 4.35% in August, economists split on peak: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The RBA began tightening policy in May 2022 and had raised rates at every meeting since, other than a pause in April. Along with a still-strong job market and a rebound in house prices, expectations have strengthened for a rate increase at the August meeting. More than 90% of respondents, 23 of 25, in a July 4-5 poll expected the RBA to increase its official cash rate (AUCBIR=ECI) by 25 basis points to 4.35% at the Aug. 1 meeting. "We suspect that the coming forecast update from the RBA staff will likely tip the balance in favour of an August rate hike. Boyton said he expected a peak cash rate of 4.60% but the outlook was uncertain following the central bank's recent pause.

Persons: Adam Boyton, Boyton, Chris Read, Morgan Stanley, Devayani Sathyan, Susobhan Sarkar, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, ANZ, CBA, NAB, Westpac, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Australia

☆ Reserve Bank of Australia to raise rates to 4.35% on July 4, decision on a knife edge, poll shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-02 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

While the latest monthly measure of consumer prices showed inflation slowed to 5.6% in May from 6.8% in April, it was still well above the RBA's 2-3% target range, suggesting more tightening may be required. "We don't think a pause in July will reduce the total number of cash rate hikes the Reserve Bank needs to do. Among major local banks, ANZ, NAB and Westpac expected a hike on Tuesday while CBA predicted no move. Just over half of economists, 16 of 30, predicted rates to peak at 4.60% or higher by end-September. Median forecasts showed rates would remain at 4.60% until end-2023.

Persons: Adelaide Timbrell, Taylor Nugent, Devayani Sathyan, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, Jonathan Cable, Kim Coghill Organizations: Reserve Bank of, ANZ, Bank, NAB, Westpac, CBA, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Reserve Bank of Australia, Australia

☆ RBA to raise rates to 4.35% on July 4 but decision on a knife edge: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

While the latest monthly measure of consumer prices showed inflation slowed to 5.6% in May from 6.8% in April, it was still well above the RBA's 2-3% target range, suggesting more tightening may be required. Just over half of economists, 16 of 30, predicted rates to peak at 4.60% or higher by end-September. Of the remaining, 13 saw rates at 4.35% and one expected no change from 4.10%. That was 25 basis points higher than the peak expected in a poll taken after the June meeting. Median forecasts showed rates would remain at 4.60% until end-2023.

☆ CBA lowers home loan buffer rates for some refinancing clients to 1%
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

June 21 (Reuters) - Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA.AX) on Wednesday cut its buffer rate for some borrowers refinancing their existing home loan to 1% from the industry standard of 3%, providing relief to many clients who would otherwise fail to qualify due to high interest rates. The country's prudential regulator advises lenders to refinance home loans only if they believe the customer could repay at 3% higher than current market rates. While CBA's alternate buffer is not in line with the regulator's recommendation, it does not break the serviceability buffer, the regulator said, as it allows exceptions to the policy but warns against high volumes. CBA has a quarter of the Australian mortgage market, where thousands of borrowers are expected to end their fixed rate loans this year, forcing them to shop around for new loans at current rates. "We know that due to the current interest rate environment some home owners are facing challenges refinancing their home loans so we are introducing an alternate interest rate serviceability buffer," CBA's Michael Baumann, executive general manager home buying said.

Persons: CBA's Michael Baumann, Sameer Manekar, Byron Kaye, Nivedita Organizations: Commonwealth Bank of Australia, prudential, CBA, Prudential Regulation Authority, Westpac Banking Corp, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: Bengaluru, Sydney

☆ Australian businesses, consumers at risk of sharp slowdown ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"There is a growing risk that the RBA's attempts to maintain an even keel 'run aground,'" said NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster. The survey, however, pointed to persistent price pressures, with the measure of labour costs and purchase costs accelerating, in a concern for the RBA. NAB on Tuesday raised its call on peak rates in the current cycle, adding two more quarter-point hikes to 4.6%. Markets are now pricing the risk of two more hikes, and see rates staying elevated for the remainder of the year. CONSUMERS UNDER THE PUMPData from Westpac and Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) also points to the strains consumers are feeling as high living costs and surging mortgage rates erode spending power.

Persons: Alan Oster, Bill Evans, Belinda Allen, Stella Qiu, Kim Coghill, Jamie Freed Organizations: NAB, RBA Westpac, SYDNEY, National Australia Bank, Reserve Bank of Australia, Westpac, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Melbourne Institute, CBA, Thomson

☆ Westpac to layoff 300 workers in business and retail unit, says trade union
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

June 12 (Reuters) - Australian lender Westpac Banking Corp (WBC.AX) will cut around 300 jobs in its consumer and business banking segments at a time of strong profit growth amid rising interest rates and soaring inflation, a local trade body said. The Finance Sector Union of Australia (FSU) said on Friday the country's third-largest bank would reduce headcount from its Consumer and Business Banking Division, citing a Westpac internal memo seen by the union. 2 mortgage provider reported a 22% rise in its first half net profit to A$4.00 billion ($2.70 billion) amid a high-inflationary environment. The bank could not be reached immediately for a comment on account of a public holiday on Monday. ($1 = 1.4839 Australian dollars)Reporting by Rishav Chatterjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi AichOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Julia Angrisano, Rishav Chatterjee, Rashmi Organizations: Westpac Banking Corp, Finance Sector Union of Australia, FSU, Consumer, Business Banking, Westpac, Reuters, ANZ Group, National Australia Bank, DBS, Australia's, Thomson Locations: Bengaluru

The Aussie was last up 0.6% at $0.6656, after leaping as high as $0.6686, a level last seen on May 16. "For this week it will be wait-and-see mode for euro-dollar," Al-Saraf said, expecting euro-dollar to remain rangebound around 1.07. Meanwhile, the dollar was flat at 139.58 yen , while sterling fell 0.2% to $1.2410. Elsewhere, bitcoin attempted to find its feet around $25,700, after tumbling 5.1% on Monday in its biggest drop since April 19. Reporting by Samuel Indyk and Kevin Buckland; Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Kim Coghill and Ed OsmondOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Sean Callow, Chris Turner, Mohamad Al, Saraf, bitcoin, Binance, Changpeng Zhao, Samuel Indyk, Kevin Buckland, Shri Navaratnam, Kim Coghill, Ed Osmond Organizations: Australian, Reserve Bank of Australia, U.S, Westpac, Bank of, BoC, Canadian, CENTRAL FOCUS, Market, Danske Bank, Fed, European Central Bank, Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Australian lender Westpac to raise interest rates after cenbank hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

June 6 (Reuters) - Top Australian lender Westpac Banking Corp (WBC.AX) said on Tuesday that it will raise its home loan variable interest rates by 25 basis points (bps), in line with the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) rate hike. In a surprise move, the RBA raised interest rates by a quarter-point to an 11-year high, and warned that further tightening may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target. The cash rate now sits at 4.1%, bringing the total RBA hikes in its price battle to a whopping 400 basis points since May last year. Westpac's new home loan rate will be effective from June 20, the bank said in a statement. Westpac is the first of the 'big four' banks to have passed on the central bank's latest rate hike to its customers, with the other three expected to follow suit soon.

Persons: Echha Jain, Savio D'Souza, Eileen Soreng Organizations: Westpac Banking Corp, Reserve Bank of Australia's, Westpac, Thomson Locations: Bengaluru

☆ RBA to hold rates at 3.85% in June, but may raise again soon: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/David GrayThe Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised rates last month after pausing in April, confounding financial markets and a majority of economists who were expecting the central bank to hold. The remaining eight in the poll taken between May 29 and June 1 poll expected a 25 basis point hike. Interest rate futures were pricing in a roughly one-in-three chance of a rate hike then. More than half of respondents, or 18 of 28, expected rates to reach 4.10% or higher by end-September, including four who saw rates at 4.35%. The remaining 10 expected rates to stay at 3.85%.

Persons: David Gray, Philip Lowe, “ we’ve, ”, Taylor Nugent, ” Nugent, Gareth Aird Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, REUTERS, David Gray The Reserve Bank of Australia, ANZ, CBA, NAB, Westpac, Economics Locations: BENGALURU, Sydney, Australia

☆ Aussie housing dip over, prices to rebound into next year on rate view
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Summary poll dataBENGALURU, June 1 (Reuters) - Australia's housing market outlook has improved significantly, with home prices expected to on average stagnate this year compared to the near double-digit fall predicted three months ago, according to a Reuters poll of housing analysts. They were then forecast to rise 4.5% in 2024, almost twice the expected rate from the previous poll. While ANZ and Westpac forecast no growth this year, CBA expected a 3.0% rise and NAB predicted a 4.0% decline in prices. "We are almost at the top of the RBA's hiking cycle, which means the headwind on property prices from rates ratcheting higher has largely run its course." (For other stories from the Reuters quarterly housing market polls:)Reporting by Vivek Mishra; Polling by Sujith Pai and Veronica Khongwir; Editing by Hari Kishan, Ross FinleyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Adelaide Timbrell, Gareth Aird, Shane Oliver, Vivek Mishra, Sujith Pai, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley Organizations: Bank of Australia, ANZ, Westpac, CBA, NAB, Economics, AMP, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, New Zealand

May 30 (Reuters) - Crown Resorts, the Australian casino operator bought by Blackstone Inc (BX.N) after three damaging inquiries, agreed to pay a A$450 million ($294 million) fine for breaking anti-money laundering laws, a step toward ending its darkest chapter. "We are pleased to have reached this agreement with AUSTRAC," said Crown Resorts CEO Ciarán Carruthers, who started in the role in September. "The company that committed these unacceptable, historic breaches is far removed from the company that exists today." Australian regulators over the recent years have penalised a slew of companies over breaches and non-compliances, with the country's "Big Four" banks fined the most. ($1 = 1.4743 Australian dollars)Reporting by Byron Kaye in Sydney and Harish Sridharan in Bengaluru; Editing by Shailesh KuberOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Factbox: Penalties imposed on Australian companies over the recent years
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Here are some of the major penalties imposed by the regulators:AMP LTD (AMP.AX)Troubled Australian wealth manager AMP Ltd was fined a court-mandated penalty of A$24 million in May for billing dead clients for insurance and financial advice. In October 2022, ANZ was penalised A$25 million for failing to provide certain benefits it had agreed to give customers. In October 2022, CBA's trading unit was fined A$20 million for compliance failures in delivering financial services. NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK (NAB.AX)National Australia Bank, the country's second-largest bank, was charged A$18.5 million penalty in August 2021 by a court for issuing misleading fee disclosure statements or none at all. WESTPAC BANKING CORP (WBC.AX)Australia's third-biggest lender, Westpac Banking Corp was ordered to pay A$113 million in penalties in April 2022 for multiple compliance failures across its businesses.

☆ Dollar on defensive after dovish Powell, debt ceiling setback
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

TOKYO, May 22 (Reuters) - The dollar nursed losses against the yen and euro on Monday following a surprise breakdown in U.S. debt ceiling negotiations and after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell indicated a preference to slow rate hikes. Investors now await a key meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and House Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy to discuss the debt ceiling on Monday. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six major peers, edged 0.04% lower to 103.00, after reaching 103.63 last week for the first time since March 20. European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde said Friday officials need to "buckle up" for "sustainably high interest rates" in order to achieve its inflation target. The Australian dollar ticked up 0.06% to $0.6655, while the New Zealand dollar advanced 0.13% to $0.62835.

☆ NZ central bank to hike by 25 bps, risk grows of higher peak for rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Lucy Craymer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Yet, while back in February the RBNZ forecast the cash rate would peak at 5.5%, a growing minority of economists expect a further tightening is possible in July. Four economists in a Reuters poll of 21 economists now expect the cash rate to reach 5.75 or higher. Fourteen expect rates to hold at 5.50% next quarter. After the April surprise, markets remain wary of another outsized 50-basis-point rate hike this week. The money market is now pricing 39 basis points of hikes, up from 20 basis points last week.

2 mortgage provider has told mortgage brokers that "if a customer is unable to meet serviceability under the standard assessment criteria", it might apply a modified serviceability assessment rate. Since the buffer is a guideline, banks are allowed to deviate from it. "APRA should consider officially lowering the serviceability buffer for refinancers." Representatives for Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA.AX) and ANZ Banking Group Ltd (ANZ.AX) were not immediately available for comment. ($1 = 1.4743 Australian dollars)Reporting by Byron Kaye and Lewis Jackson; Editing by Edwina GibbsOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Binance Australia says banking disrupted after payment provider cuts off service
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

SYDNEY, May 18 (Reuters) - The Australian arm of Binance, the world's largest crypto-currency exchange, on Thursday said some local customers will be unable to deposit or withdraw money after a third-party payment provider cut off its service. Binance on social media said users are unable to make Australian dollar deposits by bank transfer with immediate effect. "We are working hard to find an alternative provider to continue offering AUD deposits and withdrawals to our users," Binance said in a statement. The Australian Financial Review reported the provider was Westpac Banking Corp (WBC.AX), the country's second-largest retail bank. Reporting by Lewis Jackson and Byron Kaye in Sydney; Editing by Christopher CushingOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

[1/2] British Pound and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six main peers, was down 0.14% at 102.29, having reached 102.75 in early trading on Monday, its highest since April 10. "With all of that, do you really want to buy a lot of risky assets this year?" The weak Chinese data was also weighing on the Australian dollar which dropped as much as 0.5% to $0.6665. The dollar also gained on China's offshore yuan , rising to as much as 6.981, its highest since March 10.

[1/2] British Pound and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. Broader factors are also weighing on the pound as well, said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank: "A lot of the better news for sterling is already in the price. "With all of that, do you really want to buy a lot of risky assets this year?" The weak Chinese data was also weighing on the Australian dollar which dropped as much as 0.5% to $0.6665. The dollar also gained on China's offshore yuan , rising to as much as 6.9795, its highest since March 10.

☆ Analysis: Australian banks' bid to shake mortgage reliance brings new risks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Byron Kaye | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"When there's a macroeconomic downturn, it's generally institutional and business lending exposures that are impacted first," he added. For decades, Australian housing finance has significantly outpaced business lending, making home loan margins the engine of profits. A more recent exodus from non-lending retail services like financial advice has further weighted banks' allocation of capital to residential property. The big four banks said in earnings updates this month that their net interest margins peaked in late 2022 and have since narrowed. To hedge against interest rates risks, the Big Four may now chase new services-based revenues from commercial clients in non-lending segments, added Garland.

☆ Dollar weighed down by US default risks; Aussie, yuan hurt by weak China data
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar index - which measures the currency against a basket of six major peers - was little changed at 102.47. "The interesting thing is the dollar is weak, and usually when there's risk off, people buy the dollar," he said. The euro , which has the greatest weight in the dollar index, was little changed at $1.0870 on Tuesday, after bouncing off a five-week low overnight. The Australian dollar , which is not part of the dollar index, erased small early gains ahead of Chinese retail sales and industrial production data, then sank after the release. The dollar gained 0.2% to 6.9723 yuan in the offshore market , after touching 6.9749 on Monday for the first time since March 10.

☆ FOREX Dollar heavy amid U.S. default risks; Aussie, yuan slip on China data miss
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Westpac sees the potential for the dollar index to drop to around 101.05 in the near term. The euro , which has the greatest weight in the dollar index, was little changed at $1.0873 on Tuesday, after bouncing off a five-week low overnight. The offshore Chinese yuan weakened towards a two-month low. The dollar gained 0.14% to 6.9674 yuan, after touching 6.9749 on Monday for the first time since March 10. (This story has been corrected to say the dollar index retreated from 5-week high, not 5-month high, in paragraph 3.)

☆ Dollar heavy amid U.S. default risks; Aussie, yuan slips on China data miss
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar index - which measures the currency against a basket of six major peers - was little changed at 102.46, after sliding 0.26% overnight and retreating from a five-month high. Westpac sees the potential for the dollar index to drop to around 101.05 in the near term. The euro , which has the greatest weight in the dollar index, was little changed at $1.0873 on Tuesday, after bouncing off a five-week low overnight. The offshore Chinese yuan weakened towards a two-month low. The dollar gained 0.14% to 6.9674 yuan, after touching 6.9749 on Monday for the first time since March 10.

☆ Australian consumer mood bleak in May after surprise rate hike, budget
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SYDNEY, May 16 (Reuters) - A measure of Australian consumer sentiment fell in May after a surprise hike in interest rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and a "mildly disappointing" federal budget clouded the outlook for family finances and the economy. But Evans expects the RBA to leave rates on hold in June as it awaits more data on inflation and the economy. Some consumers may have had "unrealistic expectations" going into the budget with many expecting more support, Evans said. Higher living costs meant consumers were holding off on buying a major household item, with the index dipping 0.4%. Reporting by Renju Jose in Sydney; Editing by Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Dollar on back foot as U.S. default risk weighs
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The U.S. dollar remained under pressure on Tuesday, weighed down by the risk of a U.S. default as a standoff between Democrats and Republicans over raising the debt ceiling showed few signs of being resolved. The dollar index — which measures the currency against a basket of six major peers — was little changed at 102.39 after sliding 0.26% overnight, retreating from a five-month high. Westpac sees the potential for the dollar index to drop to around 101.05 in the near term. The euro , which has the greatest weight in the dollar index, ticked up 0.06% on Tuesday to $1.0879, after bouncing off a five-week low overnight. The Australian and New Zealand dollars, which are not part of the dollar index, remained bid ahead of China retail sales data, despite recent macroeconomic readings from their key trading partner pointing to tepid domestic demand.

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