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☆ South Korea March factory activity contracts at sharpest pace in six months
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Steam rises from stacks at the Lotte Chemical Corp. plant in the Yeosu Industrial Complex in Yeosu, South Korea. South Korea's factory activity contracted at the fastest pace in six months in March, a survey showed on Monday, as output and new orders fell at quicker rates and suggested weaker global demand will drag on the domestic economic recovery. The S&P Global's seasonally adjusted purchasing managers' index (PMI) for South Korean manufacturers declined to 47.6 in March from 48.5 in February. It was the lowest reading since September 2022 and the ninth consecutive month below 50, line separating expansion and contraction. Sub-indexes showed output shrank by the most in five months, while new orders fell by the most in three.

☆ US manufacturing sector weakest in nearly three years in March -ISM
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday that its manufacturing PMI fell to 46.3 last month, the lowest reading since May 2020, from 47.7 in February. It was the fifth straight month that the PMI remained below the 50 threshold, which indicates contraction in manufacturing. Reports last month also showed orders for capital goods excluding aircraft eking out a small gain in February as did manufacturing output. But it noted that manufacturing depending on bank credit also "tend to have larger firms that other things equal will have an easier time finding alternative sources of capital." The ISM survey's forward-looking new orders sub-index fell to 44.3 last month from 47.0 in February.

☆ The housing market is a total paradox now, and these recent mixed signals are adding to the confusion
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-01 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Housing indicators have sent mixed signals, muddying the picture on where the market is headed. Regional differences have also been playing a considerable role in the data. Meanwhile, Adams added that national averages can obscure stark regional differences, which have varied significantly, potentially causing diverging viewpoints. Here are some recent mixed signals:The US housing market is crashing and soaring at the same timeThe regional divide in the housing market is exemplified in this east-west split. "Existing-home sales, pending contracts and new-home construction pending contracts have turned the corner and climbed for the past three months."

☆ US consumer mood darkens but banking turmoil impact limited so far, UMich says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The University of Michigan's monthly Consumer Sentiment Index slid to 62.0 in March from 67.0 in February and a mid-month reading of 63.4. "This month's turmoil in the banking sector had limited impact on consumer sentiment, which was already exhibiting downward momentum prior to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank." Still, consumers had more pessimistic assessments of both their current situation and the future than they did a month ago, the survey showed. The survey also showed consumers' views of inflation over the near-term moderated further over the course of the month. One-year inflation expectations fell to 3.6% from 4.1% in February and 3.8% two weeks earlier.

☆ UK mortgage approvals rose more than expected in February: BoE
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The increase follows reports from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveys and mortgage lender Halifax that show the downturn in the housing market is no longer accelerating, even if conditions remain weak. Britain's housing market slowed sharply after September when former prime minister Liz Truss's economic plans triggered a spike in mortgage rates and a dramatic fall in approvals. "Reflecting the partial unwinding of the spike in mortgage rates following the 'mini' budget, mortgage approvals rose to their highest level for three months in February," said Andrew Wishart, economist at consultancy Capital Economics. "However, with mortgage rates unlikely to fall much further in the near term, lending will remain weak." Net mortgage lending value terms, which lags approvals, fell in February to 738 million pounds from 2 billion pounds in January, the lowest reading since July 2021.

☆ The bank crisis threatens to spark a credit crunch as Main Street banks pull back
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

A possible consequence of the banking crisis is that households and businesses may soon find it harder to get a loan from their bank. Around $1 trillion in deposits have been pulled from smaller and mid-sized banks since the Fed began hiking rates last year, with half that fleeing banks since SVB collapsed. "The uncertainty generated by deposit movements could cause banks to become more cautious on lending," JPMorgan strategists wrote in a note. "This risk is heightened by the fact that mid- and small-size banks play a disproportionately large role in US bank lending." This likely could impact the trajectory of the economy, as regional and community banks are a massive source of credit to Main Street borrowers.

Some banks are rolling out the welcome mat for cryptocurrency firms that found themselves in need of banking services after the downfall of two big crypto-friendly lenders, Signature Bank and Silvergate Capital Corp.As crypto companies have scrambled to establish new bank relationships, industry executives say they have received a positive reception from regional banks such as Customers Bancorp ., based in West Reading, Pa., and Fifth Third Bancorp , based in Cincinnati.

☆ Pennsylvania Chocolate-Factory Explosion Death Toll Rises to Seven
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Ginger Adams Otis | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Authorities were investigating the cause of a large explosion at a chocolate factory in Pennsylvania that killed at least seven people, officials said. Two victims were discovered late Sunday in the rubble, bringing the death toll to seven, West Reading Mayor Samantha Kaag said in a statement Monday.

☆ Death toll in Pennsylvania chocolate factory blast rises to seven
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/4] A general view shows smoke coming out from a chocolate factory after fire broke out, in West Reading, Pennsylvania, U.S., March 24, 2023 in this picture obtained from social media. Twitter @Based_In410/via REUTERSMarch 27 (Reuters) - The death toll from an explosion at a chocolate factory in Pennsylvania has risen to seven people, with authorities ending a search for those believed to be missing following Friday's blast. Palmer Co in West Reading, a town of 4,500 about 60 miles (97 km) northwest of Philadelphia. Seven other people were taken to local hospitals with injuries, said the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency (PEMA) on Friday. Palmer Company was founded in 1948.

☆ Pennsylvania Chocolate Factory Explosion Leaves Four Dead
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-26 | by ( Ginger Adams Otis | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Officials are investigating the cause of the explosion at the R.M. Palmer factory. Rescue crews continued to comb through the debris caused by a chocolate factory explosion in Pennsylvania that killed four people and left three others unaccounted for, officials said Sunday. Palmer Co. factory in West Reading, Pa., occurred just before 5 p.m. Friday. It destroyed the building and caused damage to a second structure, officials said.

☆ Explosion at Pennsylvania chocolate factory kills at least 2, 1 found alive overnight as others still missing
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( Aaron Mcdade | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A Friday evening explosion leveled a chocolate factory in Reading, Pennsylvania. The explosion killed at least two, and sent several to the hospital; others are still missing. Palmer chocolate factory in West Reading, Pennsylvania. One was transferred to another facility, two were admitted to Reading Hospital in fair condition, and the other five were released. The chocolate company has been a part of West Reading for decades since it started in 1948.

☆ NY Fed report shows near-term inflation expectations retreating sharply
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Meanwhile, the expected level of inflation three years from now held steady at 2.7%, matching the level last seen in October 2020, while expected inflation five years from now was seen hitting 2.6%, up from January's 2.5%. The New York Fed survey arrived just ahead of the Fed's March 21-22 policy meeting. The New York Fed report was conducted ahead of the SVB situation and does not reflect its impact. Households last month saw declining price pressures for gasoline, food, rent, medical care and college. But the New York Fed noted that last month's reading remains well below the 12-month average of an expected 3.4% rise in home prices.

☆ Takeaways from the February jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-11 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Minneapolis CNN —February’s jobs report had a little something for everyone. In February, the construction industry added 24,000 jobs, marking 12 consecutive months of employment growth. Friday’s report showed that “a modicum of slack crept back into the jobs market,” wrote Wells Fargo economists Sarah House and Michael Pugliese. However, Friday’s jobs report likely won’t spur a more dovish turn from the Fed, said Sean Snaith, an economist and director of the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Forecasting. “We didn’t go from a four-alarm fire to a five-alarm fire with this data report, but the inflation flames aren’t out either,” he wrote in a note Friday.

☆ UK house prices slide further but market pessimism eases: RICS
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Suban Abdulla | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) house price balance, which measures the difference between the percentage of surveyors seeing rises and falls in house prices, fell to -48 in February from -46 the previous month - the lowest reading since April 2009. While Thursday's survey still showed the housing market firmly in decline, some measures indicated that a more stable picture was emerging in 2023, RICS said. Tarrant Parsons, senior economist at RICS, said he expected housing market activity to remain subdued over the coming months. "Given the ongoing weakness in demand, house prices remain on a downward trajectory, and are expected to see further falls through the first half of the year at least," Parsons said. In contrast, another lender, Nationwide, last week said house prices dropped by the most in more than 10 years in February.

☆ US businesses see moderation in inflation ahead, Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Lindsay Dunsmuir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

But after some softening late last year, the economy has since rebounded and price increases have reaccelerated. But there were also hopeful signs, with supply chains easing further and price increases moderating in many of the Fed's regional districts. "Looking ahead, contacts expected price increases to continue to moderate over the year," the report said. That said, inflation remained "widespread" according to the survey, and in the labor market "finding workers with desired skills or experience remained challenging." Fed policymakers have made clear that there would have to be some easing in labor market shortages in order for wage pressures to ease.

☆ Euro zone factory output returned to growth in February -PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

S&P Global's final manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dipped to 48.5 in February from January's 48.8, in line with a preliminary reading but still below the 50 mark separating growth from contraction. That healing of supply chain strains led to another sharp diminishing of the cost burden faced by factories. The input prices index slumped to 50.9 from 56.3 in January, its lowest reading since September 2020. However, the output prices index remained high. "Although factory selling prices continued to rise sharply, albeit with the rate of increase easing to a two-year low, this in part reflects the usual lagged effect of changes in costs feeding through to output prices," Williamson said.

☆ US manufacturing sector still shrinking; raw material prices rebound
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Nevertheless, the rebound in prices at the factory gate suggests inflation could remain elevated for a while after monthly consumer and producer prices surged in January. The ISM's manufacturing PMI edged up to 47.7 last month from 47.4 in January. Paper products, textile mills, furniture and related products as well as nonmetallic mineral products, computer and electronic products were among the 14 reporting contraction. Comments from some manufacturers in the ISM survey were supportive of this thesis. Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said "new order rates remain sluggish due to buyer and supplier disagreements regarding price levels and delivery lead times."

☆ UK grocery price inflation hits record 17.1%
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( James Davey | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Grocery inflation in Feb at highest level ever recordedMilk, eggs, margarine show fastest price risesShoppers face 811 pounds rise in annual grocery billLONDON, Feb 28 (Reuters) - British grocery inflation hit 17.1% in the four weeks to Feb. 19, another record high, dealing the latest blow to consumers struggling with a cost-of-living crisis, industry data showed on Tuesday. "This February marks a full year since monthly grocery inflation climbed above 4%. He said its research found that rising grocery prices are the second most important financial issue for the public behind energy costs. Kantar said UK grocery sales increased 8.1% over the 12 weeks to Feb. 19, masking a drop in volumes when accounting for inflation. UK grocers' market share and sales growth (%)Source: Kantar($1 = 0.8295 pounds)Reporting by James Davey; editing by Grant McCoolOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Philadelphia Fed manufacturing gauge plunges unexpectedly
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Feb 16 (Reuters) - Manufacturing activity in the Mid-Atlantic region dropped off sharply and unexpectedly in February, and goods producers reported input cost increases accelerated for the first time in 10 months while their own price increases slowed dramatically, signaling margin pressures were building. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's monthly manufacturing index plunged to -24.3 this month from -8.9 in January, belying expectations among economists for a third straight monthly improvement. Moreover, firms expect smaller price increases for consumers in the next 12 months than they did in November. In a special question, firms said they expect to impose 4.5% price increases for their own products in the year ahead, down from 4.8% when asked the same question in November and also lower than the 7.0% price increases they'd realized over the last year. Wage increases were also expected to be lower at 4.8% in the year ahead, down from 5.0% in the November survey.

☆ Americans in January expected mostly stable gains in future inflation, NY Fed says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Respondents to the regional Fed bank's latest Survey of Consumer Expectations said they expected inflation one year from now to hold steady at 5%. Respondents projected higher food and energy costs, while they saw steady future gains for rent and medical costs. The survey also found that respondents in January saw expected future household earnings growth at 3.3%, down from the expected 4.6% rise in the prior month. The New York Fed noted this was the biggest one-month drop ever for this measure. Meanwhile, expected future spending growth moderated to 5.7% last month, from the 5.9% forecast in December.

☆ Fed's Kashkari sticks to 5.4% rate hike view after 'surprising' jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Lindsay Dunsmuir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"I think it surprised all of us," Kashkari said in an interview with broadcaster CNBC, referring to a blowout January jobs report in which more than half a million employment gains were reported by the U.S. government. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to speak later on Tuesday at 1240 EST (1740 GMT). Last week the U.S. central bank increased its benchmark overnight lending rate by a quarter-of-a-percentage-point to 4.5%-4.75%. Powell reiterated expectations that the Fed was eyeing a pause in the 5%-to-5.25% range as sufficiently restrictive in its fight against high inflation. January's jobs report, however, upended investor expectations after the U.S. economy added far more jobs than expected and the unemployment rate fell to 3.4%, the lowest reading since 1969.

☆ Fed may need to push rates higher, Bostic tells Bloomberg
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Feb 6 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve may need to lift borrowing costs higher than previously anticipated given the unexpectedly strong reading on jobs gains in January, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic said on Monday. Unless the report proves to be anomalous, “It’ll probably mean we have to do a little more work,” Bostic told Bloomberg News. “And I would expect that that would translate into us raising interest rates more than I have projected right now.”The Fed could also consider raising the rate by half-a-percentage-point, he told Bloomberg News, though that is not his base case. Bostic had previously said he expects the Fed to need to push its benchmark rate, now in the 4.5%-to-4.75% range, to the 5%-to-5.25% range in order to get policy sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation back down to the Fed's 2% target. Reporting by Ann Saphir in Berkeley, Calif.; Editing by Leslie Adler and Jonathan OatisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Homebuyers, rejoice! You can afford to bid on a more expensive home now that mortgage rates have fallen below 6%
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( Robert Davis | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The US housing market is warming back up because of declining mortgage rates. The average for 30-year mortgage rates have just dipped below 6% for the first time in months. Mortgage rates dipped below 6% on February 2, according to Mortgage Daily News, marking their lowest reading since September 2022. The declining mortgage rates have helped to bring buyers back to the market and bolster purchasing power. "We went from sellers controlling everything, to now being more of a neutral, and even almost a buyer's market."

☆ The Jobless Rate Is at a Half-Century Low. In These States, It’s Even Lower.
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-28 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

A hiring sign at a restaurant in Illinois, which last year had the second-highest state unemployment rate in the country at 4.7%. The national unemployment rate fell to a seasonally adjusted 3.5% in December, matching the lowest reading in a half century. Some states had significantly lower rates. Utah had the nation’s lowest rate at 2.2% last month, according to the Labor Department. Other states’ rates were much higher, led by Nevada’s at 5.2%.

☆ U.S. GDP rose 2.9% in the fourth quarter, more than expected even as recession fears loom
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The U.S. economy finished 2022 in solid shape even as questions persist over whether growth will turn negative in the year ahead. The growth rate was slightly slower than the 3.2% pace in the third quarter. Stock market futures rose following the report while Treasury yields were mostly higher as well. Despite the fairly strong economic data, most economists think a recession is a strong possibility this year. Corporate profit reports from the fourth quarter also are signaling a potential earnings recession.

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