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SummarySummary Companies Oil price structure implies demand bulls are retreating2-mth Brent spread in contango, implying oversupply concernECB poised for further rate hikesLONDON, June 27 (Reuters) - Oil prices slipped on Tuesday ahead of data shedding light on U.S. appetite for fuel during the summer driving season, with the Brent benchmark's price structure indicating bulls are retreating. U.S. inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute industry group is expected after 2000 GMT, followed by government data on Wednesday. For the two-month spread , the market is in shallow contango, the opposite price structure, indicating traders are factoring in a currently slightly oversupplied market. The oil market has shrugged off a clash between Moscow and Russian mercenary group Wagner which was averted on Saturday. Russian oil loadings have kept on schedule.

Persons: Brent, Craig Erlam, Christine Lagarde, Wagner, PVM's Tamas Varga, Saudi Arabia's, Premier Li Qiang, Trixie Yap, Jan Harvey, Louise Heavens Organizations: Brent, U.S, West Texas, Central Bank, American Petroleum Institute, Reuters, Saudi, Premier, Thomson Locations: contango, U.S, Moscow, Russian, China

Companies NK Rosneft' PAO FollowJune 19 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Monday as questions over China's economy outweighed OPEC+ output cuts and the seventh straight drop in the number of oil and gas rigs operating in the United States. "(China's) economy is navigating through powerful headwinds," said PVM oil analyst Tamas Varga. In recent weeks global road traffic has been declining, said Jorge Leon, Rystad Energy's senior vice president, which may also point to slowing growth and drag on oil prices. Iran's crude exports and oil output have hit record highs in 2023 despite U.S. sanctions, according to consultants, shipping data and a source close to the matter, adding to global supply when other producers are limiting output. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia this month agreed on a new oil output deal and the group's biggest producer, Saudi Arabia, also pledged to make a deep cut to its output in July.

Persons: Brent, Tamas Varga, Jorge Leon, Rystad Energy's, Leon, Nia Williams, Ahmad Ghaddar, Katya Golubkova, Emily Chow, David Goodman, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: NK Rosneft, West Texas, of, Petroleum, Thomson Locations: United States, U.S, China, Europe, Russia, Saudi Arabia, British Columbia, London, Tokyo, Singapore

☆ Oil falls on China growth uncertainties
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-19 | by ( Ahmad Ghaddar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Companies NK Rosneft' PAO FollowLONDON, June 19 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Monday as questions over China's economy outweighed OPEC+ output cuts and the seventh straight drop in the number of oil and gas rigs operating in the United States. Brent crude fell 17 cents, or 0.2%, to $76.44 a barrel by 0944 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude lost 31 cents, or 0.4%, to $71.47. "(China's) economy is navigating through powerful headwinds," said PVM oil analyst Tamas Varga. The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by eight to 687 in the week to June 16 for the lowest total since April 2022. , , . Iran's crude exports and oil output have hit record highs in 2023 despite U.S. sanctions, according to consultants, shipping data and a source close to the matter, adding to global supply when other producers are limiting output.

Persons: Brent, Tamas Varga, Ahmad Ghaddar, Katya Golubkova, Emily Chow, David Goodman Organizations: NK Rosneft, West Texas, Reuters, of, Petroleum, Thomson Locations: United States, China, U.S, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Tokyo, Singapore

☆ Oil falls as economic fears overshadow Saudi output cut
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Rowena Edwards | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Brent crude futures were down $1.50, or 1.96%, to $75.21 a barrel by 1046 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.47, or 2.04%, to $70.68 a barrel. Backwardation in Brent crude oil futures — where the current value is higher than in later months — steepened after the weekend announcement with the six-month spread hitting a five-week high of $2.20/bbl on Monday. The U.S. services sector barely grew in May as new orders slowed, and market participants are waiting to see if the U.S. Federal Reserve will hike or hold interest rates in June. Higher interest rates could curb energy demand.

Persons: Brent, Backwardation, — steepened, Ole Hansen, Tamas Varga, PVM, Rowena Edwards, Arathy Somasekhar, Trixie Yap, Sriraj Kalluvila, Jason Neely Organizations: EIA, LONDON, Saudi, Brent, . West Texas, Citi, bbl, PMI, Saxo Bank, The, U.S . Federal, U.S . Energy Information Administration, Thomson Locations: Saudi Arabia, OPEC, U.S, Europe, China, Brent, The U.S, London, Houston, Singapore

☆ Analysis: Saudi Arabia's 'icing on the cake' oil cut could feed US producers
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Dmitry Zhdannikov | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

With the new Saudi reduction, the group has agreed to take some 4.6 million bpd off the market in July, equivalent to 4.6% of global demand of 100 million bpd. OPEC+ also agreed on Sunday to extend the group's existing supply cuts of 3.66 million bpd into 2024. In response, oil prices rose nearly $2 a barrel early on Monday to $78 per barrel . "This market needs stabilisation," Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said on Sunday, calling his surprise decision to deepen Saudi production cuts "the icing on the cake" for the deal. So far this year, a weakening global economy, concern about the U.S. banking crisis, and a slow Chinese recovery from COVID-19 restrictions have capped oil prices.

Persons: Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Prince Abdulaziz, Natasha Kaneva, Morgan, Tamas Varga, Jorge Leon, Sunday's, JPM, Kaneva, Alex Lawler, Ahmad Ghaddar, el, Dmitry Zhdannikov, Simon Webb, Barbara Lewis Organizations: Saudi Energy, OPEC, White, International Energy Agency, Rystad Energy, United, Thomson Locations: Saudi, Saudi Arabia, OPEC, U.S, Russia, Ukraine, Riyadh, United States, States, COVID, Angola, Nigeria, United Arab Emirates

U.S. Federal Reserve officials on Wednesday suggested interest rates could be kept on hold this month and the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill suspending the government's debt ceiling, improving the chance of averting a disastrous default. "Oil markets may have been oversold in the last two trading days," said CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng. "Sentiment rebounded amid the debt bill's passage in the House and (the) Fed's rate hike pause signal." Mixed demand indications from China, the world's biggest oil importer, have nonetheless weighed on the market, as has industry data showing a rise in U.S. crude inventories. Market sources citing American Petroleum Institute (API) figures on Wednesday said that U.S. crude inventories rose by about 5.2 million barrels last week.

Persons: Tina Teng, Tamas Varga, Alex Lawler, Rowena Edwards, Arathy Somasekhar, Andrew Hayley, David Goodman Organizations: Representatives U.S, U.S . Federal, U.S . House, Brent, West Texas, American Petroleum Institute, of, Petroleum, Reuters, Thomson Locations: China, OPEC, Russia, London, Houston, Beijing

☆ Explainer: Why is OPEC+ cutting oil output?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A global recession could lead to lower oil prices. Oil prices have also come under pressure from concerns about the U.S. debt ceiling negotiations and fears of a debt default in the world's biggest oil consumer. Surprise production cutsPUNISHING SPECULATORSThe cut will also punish oil short sellers or those who bet on oil price declines. The United States, which released most stocks, said it would buy back some oil in 2023, but later ruled it out. OPEC observers also say the group needs nominal oil prices to be higher because of money printing by the West in recent years has lowered the value of the U.S. dollar.

Persons: Brent, Alexander Novak, PVM Oil's Tamas Varga, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen, Joe Biden's, Ahmad Ghaddar, Dmitry Zhdannikov, Barbara Lewis Organizations: OPEC, Saudi Energy, Standard Chartered, International Energy Agency, West, U.S ., Thomson Locations: Russia, Vienna, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Russian, Brent, Washington, Ukraine, United States, U.S

☆ Oil stable after smaller ECB hike, demand woes linger
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Rowena Edwards | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Brent futures were up 28 cents, or 0.39%, to $72.61 a barrel at 1228 GMT. The European Central Bank (ECB) eased the pace of its interest rate hikes on Thursday and kept its options open on future moves as it continues its fight against stubbornly high inflation in the euro zone. The 25-basis-point increase to the ECB's three policy rates was the smallest since it started lifting them last summer. "Today's decision signals that the ECB has entered the final stage of its current tightening cycle," ING said in a note. Prices have plunged this week on concerns about the U.S. economy and signs of weak manufacturing growth in the world's largest oil importer China, sliding further after the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday.

☆ Oil slips on weak China data and rate hike expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Rowena Edwards | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

May 2 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Tuesday on weak economic data from China and expectations of interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) this week. Brent crude fell 42 cents, or 0.53%, to to $78.89 a barrel by 1037 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude lost 46 cents, or 0.61% to $75.20. Price pressure followed official data on Sunday showing manufacturing activity in China, the world's top crude importer, fell unexpectedly in April. Investors will look for market direction from expected interest rate hikes by inflation-fighting central banks, which could slow economic growth and dent energy demand. A poll on Monday showed that U.S. crude oil stockpiles, meanwhile, are expected to have fallen for a third consecutive week, providing some oil price support.

☆ Oil slumps 5% to five-week low amid US debt default fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices sank about 5% to a five-week low on Tuesday on concerns about the economy as U.S. politicians discuss ways to avoid a debt default and investors prepare for more rate hikes this week. Oil prices and Wall Street's main indexes both fell after U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the government could run out of money within a month. Later this week, investors will look for market direction from expected interest rate hikes by central banks still fighting inflation. Concerns about diesel demand in recent months, meanwhile, has pressured U.S. heating oil futures to their lowest level since December 2021. Over the weekend, data from China, the world's top crude importer, showed manufacturing activity fell unexpectedly in April.

Oil prices dropped almost 4% on Wednesday as jitters about a U.S. economic downturn overshadowed a larger-than-expected fall in U.S. crude inventories. The OPEC+ group of leading oil producers does not see the need for further oil output cuts but is always able to adjust its policy, Novak said. Data on Thursday showed U.S. economic growth slowed by more than expected in the first quarter, although jobless claims fell in the week ending April 22. Oil prices were also pressured as weak risk sentiment spread from the banking sector after First Republic Bank's continued slump. Analysts see weak refinery margins as a major contributor to the recent oil price decline, with oil broker PVM's Tamas Varga pointing to heating oil and gasoil as "the main possible culprit for the outsized weakness".

☆ Oil prices stable as economic fears balance OPEC+ cuts, U.S. stock draw
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Rowena Edwards | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] Flames emerge from flare stacks at Nahr Bin Umar oil field, north of Basra, Iraq March 9, 2020. REUTERS/Essam Al-Sudani/File PhotoLONDON, April 5 (Reuters) - Oil prices were stable on Wednesday, as the market weighed gloomy economic prospects against expectations of U.S. crude inventory declines and OPEC's voluntary output cuts announcement. Bullish sentiment continued after voluntary cuts pledged by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+. However, weak manufacturing activity in the U.S. and China - the two biggest oil consumers - have capped oil oil price gains. Record Russian diesel flows to the Middle East in March, and the sluggish performance of middle distillates contracts have "acted acted as a brake on any attempt to push crude oil prices meaningfully higher," Varga said.

☆ OPEC+ announces surprise oil cuts, while U.S. calls the move inadvisable
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Crude oil storage tanks at the Juaymah Tank Farm in Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura oil refinery and oil terminal in 2018. Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ oil producers on Sunday announced further oil output cuts of around 1.16 million barrels per day, in a surprise move that analysts said would cause an immediate rise in prices and the United States called inadvisable. Oil prices last month fell towards $70 a barrel, the lowest in 15 months, on concern that a global banking crisis would hit demand. The latest reductions could lift oil prices by $10 per barrel, the head of investment firm Pickering Energy Partners said on Sunday, while oil broker PVM said it expected an immediate jump once trading starts after the weekend. The Saudi energy ministry said the kingdom's voluntary reduction was a precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market.

☆ Oil slide resumes as banking fears offset China demand hopes
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Alex Lawler | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Credit Suisse unease sparks global sell-offChinese economy shows signs of gradual recoveryChina reopening expected to boost oil demand -IEALONDON, March 15 (Reuters) - Oil extended losses on Wednesday with Brent crude hitting a three-month low as unease over Credit Suisse spooked world markets, offsetting hopes of a Chinese oil demand recovery. "Fears of contagion are clearly gaining traction," Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM told Reuters. "As a result, the dollar is stronger and equities are weakening - bad omens for oil." Wednesday's monthly report from the International Energy Agency provided support by flagging an expected boost to oil demand from China, a day after OPEC increased its Chinese demand forecast for 2023. Investors are now awaiting official U.S. oil inventory data later on Wednesday to see if it confirms the 1.2 million barrel rise in crude stocks reported on Tuesday by the American Petroleum Institute.

☆ Oil pares gains on European rate hike fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Oil prices pared early gains on Thursday as signs of a strong economic rebound in top crude importer China were offset by fears over the impact of potential increases to European interest rates. China's seaborne imports of Russian oil are set to hit a record high this month as refiners take advantage of cheap prices. However, the market was pressured by growing expectations of rate increases by the European Central Bank (ECB) after faster than expected acceleration in consumer prices in France, Spain and Germany. "Resurfacing inflation worries contributed to the souring mood," said PVM Oil analyst Tamas Varga. Record exports of U.S. crude oil, however, kept the build smaller than in recent weeks, the Energy Information Administration said.

☆ Oil rises on China growth hopes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Ahmad Ghaddar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Brent crude futures for April , due to expire on Tuesday, were up by 87 cents, or 1.1%, to $83.32 per barrel by 1059 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained $1.18, or 1.6%, to $76.89 a barrel. JPMorgan's oil analysts maintained their 2023 average price forecast on Brent crude futures at $90 per barrel. The market will be looking to the latest U.S. oil stocks data due from the American Petroleum Institute industry group on Tuesday and the government's Energy Information Administration on Wednesday for further demand indicators. Distillate inventories, which include diesel and heating oil, were expected to have decreased by about 500,000 barrels last week.

☆ Oil rebounds almost 2% on China growth hopes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Oil prices rose nearly 2% on Tuesday, erasing the previous session's losses, as hopes for a strong economic rebound in China offset worries about U.S. interest rate hikes dragging down consumption in the world's biggest economy. Expectations of demand recovery in China underpinned gains, with the market awaiting key data over the next two days. "China's economic recovery will drive its demand for commodities higher, with oil positioned to benefit the most," JPMorgan analysts said in a client note. Similarly, JPMorgan's oil analysts maintained their 2023 average price forecast on Brent at $90 a barrel. Meanwhile in the U.S., crude production fell in December to 12.10 million bpd, its lowest since August 2022, Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed.

LONDON, Feb 9 (Reuters) - Oil prices dipped in U.S. trading hours on Thursday after the country's oil inventories hit their highest in months and on signs that the Federal Reserve could keep raising interest rates. "Relentlessly rising U.S. commercial inventories and potentially entrenched inflation limit any immediate upside potential," said PVM analyst Tamas Varga. He said recovering Chinese demand and falling inflation were set to support oil prices in the second half of the year. Crude oil stocks in the United States rose last week to their highest since June 2021, helped by higher production, the Energy Information Administration said. read more GLOB/MKTSBut the prospect of stronger demand from China provided some support to oil prices, as the world's second largest oil consumer ended more than three years of stringent zero-COVID policy.

LONDON, Feb 9 (Reuters) - Oil prices were steady on Thursday, as optimism over recovering Chinese demand was offset by U.S. oil inventories hitting their highest in months and signs the U.S. Federal Reserve could keep raising interest rates. He said recovering Chinese demand and falling inflation were set to support oil prices in the second half of the year. Crude oil stocks in the United States rose last week to their highest since June 2021, helped by higher production, the Energy Information Administration said. read more GLOB/MKTSBut the prospect of stronger demand from China lent some support to oil prices, as the world's second-largest oil consumer ended more than three years of stringent zero-COVID policy. "We expect Chinese oil consumption to increase by around 1.0 million barrels a day this year, with strong growth emerging as early as late in Q1," analysts from ANZ bank wrote in a note.

☆ Oil falls on rate hike worries, Russian export flows
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Rowena Edwards | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies OPEC+ seen sticking with oil output policy at Feb. 1 meetingInvestors watch for central bank rate hikesPositive China data caps weaknessLONDON, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Tuesday as the prospect of further interest rate increases and ample Russian crude flows outweighed demand recovery expectations from China. March Brent crude futures fell by $1.01, or 1.19%, to $83.89 per barrel by 0920 GMT. The March contract expires on Tuesday and the more heavily traded April contract fell by 90 cents, or 1.07%, to $83.60. Interest rate decisions will shed some light on the prospects of economic and oil demand growth," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. Higher rates could slow the global economy and weaken oil demand.

☆ Oil rises on China demand hopes, U.S. inflation in focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Alex Lawler | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Summary China reopening leads to optimism demand will riseLooming EU ban on Russian oil products imports in focusComing up: U.S. CPI data, 1330 GMTLONDON, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Oil rose about 1% on Thursday supported by optimism over China's demand outlook and hopes that upcoming inflation data from the United States will point to a slower increase in interest rates. Top oil importer China is reopening its economy after the end of strict COVID-19 curbs, boosting optimism that demand for fuel will grow in 2023. The market is also bracing for an additional curb on Russian oil supply due to sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said the upcoming EU ban on seaborne imports of petroleum products from Russia on Feb. 5 could be more disruptive than the EU ban on seaborne imports of crude oil from Russia implemented in December 2022. Additional reporting by Laura Sanicola and Emily Chow; editing by Jason Neely and Susan FentonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Oil steadies amid China demand hopes, caution ahead of U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Alex Lawler | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Summary China reopening leads to optimism demand will riseLooming EU ban on Russian oil products imports in focusComing up: U.S. CPI data, 1330 GMTLONDON, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Oil steadied on Thursday as optimism over China's demand outlook was tempered by caution over whether upcoming inflation data from the United States will point to a slower increase in interest rates. Top oil importer China is reopening its economy after the end of strict COVID-19 curbs, boosting optimism that demand for fuel will grow in 2023. The market is also bracing for an additional curb on Russian supply due to sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said the upcoming EU ban on seaborne imports of petroleum products from Russia on Feb. 5 could be more disruptive than the EU ban on seaborne imports of crude oil from Russia implemented in December 2022. Additional reporting by Laura Sanicola and Emily Chow; editing by Jason NeelyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Oil edges higher as petroleum demand set to touch record next year
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

ETHOUSTON, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Oil prices edged slightly higher on Tuesday as the U.S. government forecast record global petroleum consumption next year and as the dollar hovered at seven-month lows. A weaker dollar can boost demand for oil, as greenback-denominated commodities become cheaper for holders of other currencies. But analysts said a revival of Chinese demand may only give oil prices limited support under downward pressure from the global economy. Goldman Sachs expects that the growing ability of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to raise prices without hurting demand too much will limit downside risks to its bullish oil forecast for 2023. Separately, U.S. stockpiles of crude oil and distillates were expected to have fallen last week, a Reuters poll showed.

☆ Oil rises 1% as petroleum demand set to touch record next year
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

ETHOUSTON, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed marginally on Tuesday as the U.S. government forecast record global petroleum consumption next year and as the dollar hovered at seven-month lows. Thursday's data "could easily clarify the direction of the financial and oil markets for weeks to come", said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. A weaker dollar can boost demand for oil, as greenback-denominated commodities become cheaper for holders of other currencies. But analysts said a revival of Chinese demand may only give oil prices limited support under downward pressure from the global economy. Separately, U.S. stockpiles of crude oil and distillates were expected to have fallen last week, a Reuters poll showed.

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