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☆ S&P 500 may struggle in the next two months, according to history of past volatility spikes
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Bank of America found that the S & P 500 typically is lower two months after the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) spikes above 45. In the eight weeks after such a volatility surge, the S & P 500 is higher only 40% of the time and loses 0.72% on a median basis, BofA data shows. Typically, the broad market index gains 66% of the time and advances 1.95% on a median basis. Roughly three months after a Vix spike, the broad market index is higher 80% of the time, gaining 5.17% on a median basis, per BofA. One year later, the S & P 500 is up 80% of the time, rallying 18.18% on a median basis.

Persons: Stephen Suttmeier, it's Organizations: Bank of America Securities . Bank of America, BofA Securities

☆ 4 reasons why Wall Street's anxiety over excessive AI spending boom is 'premature,' Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Bank of America offered four reasons why investors are worrying too much about high AI spending. Investors can look forward to fresh catalysts ahead, such as Nvidia's upcoming Blackwell AI product, the bank said. Second, AI spending is focused on more than just creating new revenue streams. For instance, these expenditures help tech firms maintain social or e-commerce dominance, or protect their reign over the online search sector. "Concerns about the return on investment (ROI) on high AI capex is valid but premature and inconclusive in our view," the bank wrote.

Persons: —, Goldman Sachs Organizations: of America, Blackwell, Service, Bank of America, 5G, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, Apple

☆ Morgan Stanley names this derivative play on the big AI data center buildout a top stock pick
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Cummins should see more earnings upside as data center demand for backup power supplies remains strong, according to Morgan Stanley. Analysts led by Angel Castillo named Columbus, Indiana-based Cummins a top pick and reiterated an overweight investment rating. Castillo also raised his price target by $2 to $341, implying 16% upside from Friday's close. The analyst said data center-related growth was once thought of as immaterial to total sales for companies like Cummins and Caterpillar . On top of data centers, Morgan Stanley also pointed to an improved view on the North American truck business cycle due to emission regulations and Cummin's productivity initiatives.

Persons: Cummins, Morgan Stanley, Angel Castillo, Castillo, Morgan Stanley's Organizations: Cummins, Caterpillar, CMI Locations: Columbus , Indiana, American

☆ Watch Monday's full episode of the Halftime Report — August 12, 2024
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch Monday's full episode of the Halftime Report — August 12, 2024"Fast Money Halftime Report" is on the front lines of CNBC's market coverage. Host CNBC's Scott Wapner and the Street's top investors get to the heart of the action as it's happening and help set the agenda for the rest of the day. Watch today's full episode on CNBC PRO.

Persons: CNBC's Scott Wapner Organizations: CNBC PRO

While keeping his outperform rating, Vijay Rakesh chopped $10 off his price target to $145. The Oreo maker should see above-average earnings growth, Jordan said, and the stock itself is a high-quality core holding. — Alex Harring 5:50 a.m.: UBS lays out earnings expectations for Nvidia UBS is remaining bullish on Nvidia heading into the artificial intelligence giant's earnings report. Analyst Timothy Arcuri reiterated his buy rating and $150 price target heading into earnings expected later this month. His price target of $23, up from $20, implies a gain of 28.3% over the next 12 months.

Persons: Piper Sandler, Vijay Rakesh, Rakesh, Alex Harring, Shaun Kelley, Kelley, — Alex Harring, Eli Lilly, Eli Lilly's, James Shin, Shin, Jefferies, Samad Samana, Samana, Goldman, Goldman Sachs, Mills, Leah Jordan, Jordan, Kraft Heinz, Timothy Arcuri, Arcuri, Patrick Moley, Morley, HOOD, Fred Imbert Organizations: CNBC, UBS, Mizuho, Micron, Seagate Technology, Western, Bank of America, Gaming, Consumer, Terre Haute, Kentucky Derby, Deutsche Bank, Par Technology, Jefferies, Conagra Brands, Hershey, Nvidia UBS, Nvidia Locations: Churchill, Northern, Northern Virginia, Kentucky, Robinhood

☆ 3 reasons why recession alarms are flashing a false positive, market vet says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Fresh anxiety might also spring from the fact that the yield curve is finally disinverting, which is a recessionary signal on its own. "In other words, the Credit Crisis Cycle may be on pause this time." AdvertisementStable credit conditions also contradict a typical reason for why the yield curve inverted in the first place. They are usually correct, Yardeni noted, but not this time around. AdvertisementBut when this happens, shorter-term Treasurys typically roll off quicker than longer ones, Yardeni noted.

Persons: —, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Organizations: Service, Business, Federal Reserve, Federal, Valley Bank, ICE

☆ Market sell-off won't last for one key reason, CIO says: There's no tech bubble to burst
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Global markets are cautiously rebounding from an early-August rout — and one asset manager says there's no need to fear a burst tech bubble causing a persistent downturn. "I just don't see a tech bubble. Pointing to the Nasdaq, Singh noted that on an equally-weighted basis — giving each stock the same weight regardless of market capitalization — the index is flat over the last three years. "So if you have 100 stocks and seven of them are doing well because they have delivered [on] earnings, that's fine. The tech sector's recent bull run has in part been powered by the so-called "Magnificant Seven" of Apple , Amazon , Alphabet , Meta , Microsoft , Nvidia and Tesla .

Persons: —, there's, Wall, Manish Singh, CNBC's, Singh Organizations: Crossbridge, Nasdaq, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla

☆ On paper the stock market should be great, not on a knife's edge. But that's the opportunity
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-11 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +13 min

For example, this season started with the banks roaring higher on great numbers, legitimately great numbers led by a phenomenal Bank of America quarter. The later just made no sense because it is pulling away from Intel on the low end and if Nvidia really does have production problems then AMD is the de facto winner. In fact, the only stock that didn't suffer from an Nvidia relation, Apple, got through earnings without too much trouble. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade.

Persons: —, techs, We've, Warren Buffett, Buffett, industrials Eaton, Donald Trump, we've, execs, I've, Kamala Harris, Trump, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Rob Kim Organizations: Federal Reserve, of America, Bank of America, Club, Apple, Fed, SL Green, Boston Properties, Nvidia, Arista Networks, Micron, Dell, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Devices, Intel, AMD, Accenture, Deloitte, McKinsey, White, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC Locations: Lowe's

☆ Recession Fears Are Fueling Stock Market Crash, Wall Street Chaos
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-11 | by ( Linette Lopez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

While there was some demand for protection against the prospect of volatility reemerging, overall sentiment across Wall Street had gotten more bullish. Until Wall Street can be sure that the consumer will hold on (or not), conviction is easily shaken. After years of weird times and outsize gains, Wall Street is dancing on a knife's edge. After years of weird times and outsize gains, Wall Street is dancing on a knife's edge. What happened on Monday was a sudden realization that the new structure may assert itself before Wall Street imagined it would.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, we've, they'd, corporates, Dow, Mandy Xu, Cboe's, Wall, Torsten Slok, Slok, Shake, Kevin Gordon, Charles Schwab, they've Organizations: Dow Jones, Bank of Japan, Big Tech, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Wall, Apollo Global Management, Corporations, Companies Locations: Asia, Japan, Mexico

☆ There's a hidden risk lurking for AI stocks in 2025
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-11 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Depreciation costs could lead to AI stock price declines and valuation scrutiny, according to Baird's Ted Mortonson. AdvertisementThe lurking problem is that the useful lifetime of AI GPU chips can be a lot shorter than many expect, especially as AI chips go through an ever-accelerating innovation cycle, leading to higher-than-expected depreciation expenses that ultimately drag down profits. For example, the bank expects Alphabet to record $28 billion in depreciation costs in 2026, which is 24% more than current consensus estimates of $22.6 billion. AdvertisementBut even that has its limits because of how quickly Nvidia is releasing new GPU chips. And for Mortonson, it all comes back to the return on invested AI capital.

Persons: Ted Mortonson, —, doesn't, outlays, Ross Sandler, Baird, Morton, Sandler, Mortonson, there's Organizations: Barclays, Service, Companies, Nvidia, Business

☆ After a busy week of stock trades, we're looking ahead to some key inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-11 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Looking back, quarterly earnings also played a key role in big stock moves for the portfolio. Looking ahead, we'll see an update on some key inflation data, plus a closer look at the state of the housing and retail sectors. ET: Producer Price Index Earnings: Home Depot (HD), Pandora (PANDY), Nu Holdings (NU), Sea Limited (SE) Wednesday, August 14 8:30 a.m. ET: Consumer Price Index Earnings: Tencent Holdings (TCEHY), Cisco (CSCO), UBS (UBS), JD.com (JD) Thursday, August 15 8:30 a.m. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

Persons: Eli Lilly, Walt, Jim Cramer, we've, JD.com, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Spencer Platt Organizations: Dow Jones, Dow, Nasdaq, Walt Disney, Microsoft, Ford Motor, Wynn Resorts, DuPont, Devices, Procter, Gamble, Club, Abbott Laboratories, Federal, Traders, Sun Life, Nu Holdings, Sea, Tencent Holdings, Cisco, UBS, Philadelphia Fed, Walmart, Materials, Deere & Co, Ross Stores, Lenovo, Housing, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: U.S, Dover, Wells Fargo, Nextracker, Eaton

☆ Disney and this AI stock are among the most oversold stocks this week and could be due for a bounce
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-10 | by ( Sean Conlon | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

With this in mind, CNBC Pro screened for the most overbought and oversold stocks on the Street, as measured by their 14-day relative strength index, or RSI. Alternatively, stocks are viewed as oversold with an RSI below 30, which suggests a possible buying opportunity. While shares are slightly positive on the week, up nearly 1%, the stock has tumbled 10% in 2024. TTWO YTD mountain Take-Two Interactive Software, year-to-date Other stocks that made the oversold group are artificial intelligence infrastructure play Super Micro Computer and Ulta Beauty . The stock closed out the week nearly 25% higher and is up more than 41% this year.

Persons: Stocks, Hugh Johnston, Mars, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman Organizations: Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, CNBC Pro, Disney, Software, Lockheed, RBC Locations: U.S

☆ Markets just had the most volatile week since the pandemic outbreak — What we learned
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-10 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

A wild week of trading on Wall Street ended with the S & P 500 back roughly where it started, but the lessons learned by whipsawed investors over those five days could determine what happens next. The S & P 500 had its worst day since 2022 on Monday, and then its best since 2022 on Thursday. But with the S & P 500 ending the week down less than 0.1% in a calm session on Friday, the market seems to have stabilized. .SPX 5D mountain The S & P 500 finished the week nearly flat. And I think that has to do with investors really being a little bit skeptical about some of this equity market volatility."

Persons: Tim Hayes, Ned Davis, Gennadiy Goldberg, didn't, Jeremy Schwartz, Peter Berezin, aren't, Wellington, Frank Gretz, RJ O'Brien, Tom Fitzpatrick, Fitzpatrick Organizations: Wall, Treasury, Ned, Ned Davis Research, TD Securities, CNBC, Japan —, Nikkei, Bank of Japan, BCA Research, Wellington Shields, Associates Locations: Japan

☆ These dividend payers will beat the yields on cash as the Fed cuts rates, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-09 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

However, investors can continue generating portfolio income if they snap up the right dividend stocks. Dividend yields that are too high may also raise the question of whether the company can sustain these payments to investors. Data storage player Seagate Technology made the cut, with a three-year annualized dividend yield of 7.9%, according to Bank of America's analysis. Bank of America rates KeyCorp as a buy, and it sees the company and its peers benefiting as the Fed dials back its policy. Devon, which the bank rates as a buy, this week surpassed the Street's estimates on core earnings per share in the second quarter, per FactSet.

Persons: Savita Subramanian, Wamsi Mohan, Mohan, Ebrahim Poonawala, Kraft, Merck Organizations: Federal Reserve, FedWatch, Bank of America, Seagate Technology, Bank of, KeyCorp, Devon Energy, Kraft Heinz, Simon Property Group Locations: Devon, Bank

☆ Wells Fargo says buy stocks, not the stock market now. Here's its bargain list
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-09 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Recent market turbulence has unearthed some bargain prices for momentum stocks, according to Wells Fargo. He suggests that investors "buy stocks, not the stock market." Here's a closer look at stocks Wells Fargo is eyeing in light of the recent market volatility. Shares of the Facebook parent have gained roughly 45% in 2024, but have slumped 3% over the past month. Eli Lilly has climbed 53% in 2024, but is down roughly 8% over the past month.

Persons: Wells, Christopher Harvey, Harvey, Harvey isn't, Blayne Curtis, Eli Lilly, Lilly, Zepbound Organizations: Services, Nvidia, Jefferies, Facebook, Meta, LSEG, Netflix Locations: Wells Fargo, U.S, Wells

☆ An options strategy that will win during a market comeback, while withstanding more volatility
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-09 | by ( Jeff Kilburg | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The massive resurgence in volatility (as measured by the Cboe Volatility Index - VIX ) has revealed market vulnerability coupled with significant uncertainty. With the VIX hitting a multi-year high of 65 this week, elevated options premiums offer higher risk/reward scenarios. .VIX YTD mountain Cboe Volatility Index, YTD The VIX, also known as Wall Street's "fear gauge", vaulted above 60 earlier this week, the highest since pandemic induced volatility back in March 2020. In the event you disagree with my bullish view, feel free to take the other side of this trade. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.

Persons: Lehman Organizations: Lehman Brothers, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL

☆ Goldman sees nothing 'sinister' ahead like past times market volatility reached these kinds of levels
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-09 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Global markets reached levels of turbulence rarely seen this week, but traders at Goldman Sachs are unfazed and don't believe it is a sign of a big danger lurking. The S & P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average on Monday suffered their biggest one-day declines since 2022. The market then roared back with the S & P 500 posting its biggest gain since 2022 on Thursday. After the late-week comeback, the S & P 500 is only down for the week by about half a percent. .VIX 5D bar Wild week for VIX Goldman traders expect gains going forward, but they see the path higher as a "choppy" one.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Wall Street's, Goldman, VIX Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Eli Lilly, LLY Organizations: Goldman, Dow Jones, Monday, JPMorgan, pharma

☆ Under Armour shares surge 20% after posting 'better than feared' quarterly sales
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-08 | by ( Gabrielle Fonrouge | In Gabrielle-Fonrouge | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Under Armour apparel is displayed at a Dick's Sporting Goods store on May 16, 2024 in Petaluma, California. Under Armour on Thursday said sales are falling across its business, but the athletic apparel retailer posted better fiscal first-quarter results than feared, sending its stock surging in early trading. Under Armour previously expected full-year earnings of 2 cents to 5 cents per share, and adjusted earnings between 18 cents and 21 cents per share. The athletic apparel company is in the midst of a broad restructuring plan as it fights to regain relevance, reverse a sales slump and boost profits. Apparel revenue fell 8%, footwear sales dropped 15% and accessories revenue slid 5%.

Persons: Armour, It's, Stephanie Linnartz, Kevin Plank, Plank, Eric Liedtke, Eric, …, William Blair, Armour's Organizations: Sporting Goods, LSEG, Marriott, Armour's, Apparel, Adidas, UA Locations: Petaluma , California, North America

☆ A guide to the wild week of trading, from Monday's 'flash crash' to the yen to the volatility spike
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-08 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

.VIX YTD mountain Cboe Volatility Index in 2024 That is literally what the VIX measures: expectations for volatility over the next 30 days. Was Monday a 'flash crash'? A "flash crash" is a sudden and severe price drop that lasts for a very short period, usually a few hours. "It appears that the sell-off of August 5th qualified as a flash crash, although it was rather modest by historical standards," he told me. During the 1987 flash crash, Higgins said an investor was trying to orchestrate trades on the phone while he was preparing to go to his relative's funeral.

Persons: Jamie Dimon, Alec Young, haven't, Mark Higgins, Higgins Organizations: Bank of Japan, Yen Trust, JPMorgan Chase, Fund, Dow Jones Locations: Japan, backwardation

☆ Sunrun sees market opportunity after SunPower files for bankruptcy, company's shares surge
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-07 | by ( Spencer Kimball | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A contractor carries a SunRun solar panel on the roof of a home in San Jose, California, U.S., on Monday, Feb. 7, 2022. Sunrun stock jumped 11% on Wednesday as the rooftop solar installer sees an opportunity to snag market share after competitor SunPower filed for bankruptcy this week. "This presents an opportunity for Sunrun to continue our industry leadership and gain share in a financially disciplined and measured way," Powell told analysts on the company's second-quarter earnings call Tuesday. Sunrun has hired two former SunPower executives, Matt Brost and Ellen Struck, to lead the company's new homes business. Sunrun's stock is up about 50% over the past month, though shares are down about 6.7% so far this year.

Persons: SunPower, Mary Powell, Powell, Sunrun, Matt Brost, Ellen, Goldman Sachs, Brian Lee Organizations: Wall Locations: San Jose , California, U.S

☆ Eli Lilly reports earnings Thursday. Here's what Wall Street is watching
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-07 | by ( Christina Cheddar Berk | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Novo Nordisk shocked investors on Wednesday when its latest results fell short of Wall Street's expectations. While Eli Lilly's stock remains up about 32% year to date, concerns about increasing competition in the category have resulted in a nearly 16% decline for Lilly shares over the past month. Eli Lilly is making similar attempts with Zepbound, but its launch is at an earlier stage than Wegovy. Second-quarter sales of Ozempic, Novo's diabetes treatment, rose 4% from the first quarter, while Wegovy revenue grew 24% quarter over quarter. Barclays analyst Emily Field told clients in a research note that she would be a buyer of Novo Nordisk shares on the weakness.

Persons: Eli Lilly, Eli, Lilly, Wells, Mohit Bansal, Ozempic, Bansal, Emily Field, David Song, Song, Chris Schott, Schott Organizations: Novo Nordisk, LSEG, Lilly's, Management, Food and Drug Administration, Barclays, Tema, JPMorgan Locations: Wells Fargo, IQVIA, Amgen, MariTide, Novo, CagriSema

☆ Watch Tuesday's full episode of the Halftime Report — August 6, 2024
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch Tuesday's full episode of the Halftime Report — August 6, 2024"Fast Money Halftime Report" is on the front lines of CNBC's market coverage. Host CNBC's Scott Wapner and the Street's top investors get to the heart of the action as it's happening and help set the agenda for the rest of the day. Watch today's full episode on CNBC PRO.

Persons: CNBC's Scott Wapner Organizations: CNBC PRO

☆ Rivian tops Wall Street's second-quarter expectations amid cost cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Michael Wayland | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Rivian Automotive beat Wall Street's top- and bottom-line expectations for the second quarter as the electric vehicle maker continues to take costs out of its business. Through the first six months of the year Rivian produced about 23,600 vehicles, including only 9,162 during the second quarter due to downtime at the company's plant to retool and reduce costs. Shares of Rivian are off 37% this year amid slower-than-expected demand for EVs as well as Rivian's significant cash burn. Rivian's expenditures through the first half of the year were $537 million, including $283 million during the second quarter. Rivian ended the second quarter with $9.18 billion in total liquidity, including $7.87 billion in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments.

Persons: Rivian, RJ Scaringe Organizations: Rivian Automotive, LSEG, Volkswagen

☆ Wall Street's 'fear gauge' shows how the stock market has calmed down, at least for now
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

.VIX 5D mountain The VIX is well off its highs from Monday as the stock market tries to claw back its losses. The VIX, often called Wall Street's "fear gauge," reflects expected volatility over the next 30 days based on the price of S & P 500 options. "Excluding the current shock, there have been 39 VIX spikes to above 35 in our empirical analysis since 1999. Market shock of this magnitude happens on average more than once per year, but is unlikely to sustain. The lingering question now is whether the concerns that pushed the market into a cascade of selling are alleviated," Krosby said.

Persons: —, Howard Du, yesterday's selloff, Quincy Krosby, Krosby Organizations: Bank of America, LPL

☆ Market correction has more room to run, says Goldman Sachs
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Tuesday's market rebound doesn't mean the market is yet in the clear — instead, investors should brace for more market volatility following Monday's global sell-off, according to Goldman Sachs chief global equity strategist Peter Oppenheimer. The S & P 500 rose 1.04% on Tuesday in a broad relief rally that lifted all 11 of its sectors. Nonetheless, the correction hasn't yet fully run its course, Oppenheimer told CNBC's " Squawk on the Street " on Tuesday. However, Oppenheimer doesn't necessarily think the correction is bad for the market. According to Strategas strategist Todd Sohn, Monday's spike in the volatility index could be a positive omen for equities in the medium term.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Peter Oppenheimer, Oppenheimer, CNBC's, We're, He's, Todd Sohn, Sohn Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow

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