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Search resuls for: "Shepherdson"


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A "deep recession" in the housing market may lead the Fed to hike rates by less than expected in November, said Pantheon Macroeconomics. The Fed may opt to raise rates by 50 basis points instead of 75 basis points, which is what investors were widely pricing in. Still, the housing market is in a "deep recession," and the pain will spread beyond homebuilders soon to depress housing-related retail sales, he warned. The Fed has raised interest rates four times in 2022, leading 30-year mortgage rates to rise above 6% for the first time since 2008. The rate of the Housing Market Index's decline has slowed in recent months but the latest report likely doesn't mark the floor, said Shepherdson.
Higher-than-expected inflation in August means the Fed will likely back another jumbo-sized rate hike next week. Rate increases have already made mortgages, car loans, and credit cards much pricier for Americans. Fed officials have been clear that they'll only pull back on their rate hikes once they see "compelling evidence" that inflation is slowing down. And since it usually takes around one year for rate hikes to be fully felt throughout the economy, those tightening effects are set to only get more intense. Fed officials have also made it clear that they want to avoid the biggest risks that come with monetary tightening.
CNN —Lower gas prices helped consumer confidence bounce back in August, breaking a three-month stretch of worsening sentiment. “Expectations are more sensitive to movements in gas prices,” Shepherdson said in a research note, adding that the continued slide in gas prices could be a tailwind for the survey results. However, while the consumer confidence number is promising, “this is one month,” she cautioned. Consumer confidence is a pretty fickle reading.”The big risk is that what the gas pump giveth, the gas pump taketh away, as Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told CNN Business in an opinion column published Tuesday. “It is a real drain on disposable income [and] it ends up acting as a depressant on consumer confidence,” Stovall said.
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