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☆ Factbox: Key ECB policymaker comments since Feb rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

By smoothing our policy rate hikes – that is, moving in small steps – we can ensure that we calibrate (policy) more precisely. Boris Vujcic, Croatian central bank governor, Feb. 10"I would agree that we are likely to see more rate action beyond March." Joachim Nagel, German central bank chief, Feb. 7"From where I stand today we need further, significant rate hikes." Pierre Wunsch, Belgian central bank chief, Feb. 3"I don’t think we're going to move from 50 basis points (in March) to zero. Gediminas Simkus, Lithuanian central bank chief, Feb. 3"The March rate hike is not the last one.

☆ Analysis: ECB faces new communication challenge as inflation falls
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Balazs Koranyi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

But core inflation is proving stubborn and could still rise from last month's 5.2%. "We have to continue to emphasize that we have this medium term perspective," Klaas Knot, the Dutch central bank chief said. It has oscillated between focusing on current inflation, future inflation and core inflation. Wages are the biggest factor in that sector's prices and services inflation is still just above 4%. So wage growth of the magnitude of 5% or more could push services inflation even higher.

☆ Starboard nominates directors to the board at Rogers. Here’s how the firm could boost margins
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-11 | by ( Kenneth Squire | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Activist Commentary: Starboard Value is a very successful activist investor and has extensive experience helping companies focus on operational efficiency and margin improvement. On Dec. 15, 2022 , Starboard delivered a letter to the company nominating four directors for election to the board at the 2023 Annual Meeting. Both sides seem to share the same views regarding margin improvement, and there is a new CEO who Starboard likely supports. Having Starboard representation on the board would help management stay focused and get the support it needs. While Starboard is not advocating for any strategic transaction, the firm is an economic animal with fiduciary duties.

☆ ECB rates must rise significantly; broad disinflation not happening - Schnabel
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

FRANKFURT, Feb 10 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank must still raise interest rates significantly as broad disinflation has not yet started, even if overall price growth has been declining quickly, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said in a Twitter Q&A on Friday. "Rates must reach a sufficiently restrictive level ... (and) we’ll keep rates high until we see robust evidence that underlying inflation returns to our target." "We need to stay the course and raise rates significantly further," Schnabel said. "We need to see robust evidence that underlying inflation is returning to our target." But underlying price growth appears to be stubbornly high leading to fears that price growth could get stuck at levels above the ECB's 2% target, partly due to quick nominal wage growth.

☆ Morning Bid: Volatility stirs
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

World markets end a rough week of confusing and competing narratives in distinctly edgy form, with peculiarly subdued volatility gauges flickering back to life. Both 10 and 30-year yields hit their highest levels in over a month early on Friday. Job shedding in the digital sector continued, with Yahoo's plans to lay off more than 20% of its total workforce. That said, the year-on-year oil price trend continues to be negative, as it's been all year and base effects from last year's price spike around the Ukraine invasion will only deepen that and weigh on headline inflation further. Goldman Sachs lowered its oil price forecasts for this year and next, cutting its Brent 2023 price forecast by $6 to $92 per barrel - still above current levels around $86.

Meanwhile, the risk-sensitive Australian dollar rallied against a backdrop of gains for U.S. equity futures and a more hawkish Reserve Bank. Investors will closely watch consumer price inflation data on Tuesday for additional clues on the policy outlook. Market pricing anticipates the Fed funds rate peaking just above 5.1% by July then falling by the end of the year to 4.8%. "From where I stand today we need further, significant rate hikes," German central bank chief Joachim Nagel told the newspaper Boersen-Zeitung on Tuesday. His colleague Isabel Schnabel said it is not yet clear that the ECB rate hikes so far would bring inflation back to 2%.

☆ Sell-off fizzles out ahead of Fed, ECB and BoE speeches
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] The Federal Reserve building is seen in Washington, U.S., January 26, 2022. Then comes Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Economic Club of Washington during U.S. trading plus U.S. President Joe Biden's State of the Union address. DEADLY QUAKEAmong the main commodities, oil jumped for a second straight session driven by optimism about recovering demand in China, and after Monday's devastating earthquake in Turkey had shut down one of the region's major oil export terminals. "Equities have had a strong run since the start of the year so seeing an air pocket emerge now is no major surprise." Additional reporting by Scoot Murdoch in Sydney; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore and Jacqueline WongOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Euro zone can afford to keep fiscal taps running
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

If they don’t overdo it, governments can also ease the blow of the European Central Bank’s efforts to tame inflation. But euro zone leaders like Germany’s Olaf Scholz, France’s Emmanuel Macron and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni face pressure from economic policymakers to curb the handouts. The Commission estimates that the euro zone aggregate deficit will be 3.7% of GDP in 2023. As the ECB keeps a lid on growth to slay inflation, European governments can keep the fiscal taps open. Follow @guerreraf72 on TwitterloadingCONTEXT NEWSThe European Central Bank is putting pressure on euro zone governments to rein in fiscal spending.

"That would be a problem for any central bank." TUG OF WARLagarde's commitment also puzzled ECB-watchers because the central bank had previously said it wouldn't make such public predictions - known as forward guidance - anymore, but instead take each decision based on incoming data. This of course leads to a tug of war between the ECB and the markets on the narrative," he added. ING's Brzeski said the ECB lacked a clear thought-leader on its Governing Council who could steer markets like Lagarde's predecessor, Mario Draghi. "The cacophony of diverging voices and the lack of clarity on who is the leading voice keeps hurting the ECB," Brzeski said.

☆ Morning bid: No safety net?
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"I just think we need to keep going," Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said. And many forecasters are now wary the Fed will err on the side of tighter policy to ensure inflation is slayed. Markets wobbled on the prospect on Wednesday, with the S&P500 (.SPX) staging its biggest decline of the year so far. At 3.32%, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields fell to their lowest since September. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Major central bankers dispute role in tackling climate change as they battle inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell holds a news conference following the announcement that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by half a percentage point, at the Federal Reserve Building in Washington, U.S., December 14, 2022. Evelyn Hockstein | ReutersLONDON — Divisions are forming among the world's most influential central banks over their role in tackling climate change, as policymakers focus on reining in inflation. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told a conference hosted by Sweden's central bank on Tuesday that the Fed would not become a "climate policymaker" or get involved in matters beyond its congressionally established mandate. The surge in inflation and rising interest rates have derailed the plan to redirect ECB corporate bond holdings towards greener assets in support of the energy transition. The central bank has been forced to stop its bond purchases, as it looks to shrink its balance sheet.

"There are plenty of other people who can take measures to combat climate change and I worry that people, in their great enthusiasm for doing good, are actually putting at risk central bank independence," King said. They were in a minority in a conference packed with central bankers who had long accepted they had some duty towards the environment and, in many cases, were already taking some steps. "It would be misleading to use tighter financing conditions as a scapegoat for further delays in the green transition," Schnabel said. "By saying we have a role to play in helping to finance the green transition... we are increasing this misunderstanding of what our role is," said Wunsch, Belgium's central bank governor. Singapore's Ravi Menon, meanwhile, said central bankers should do much more to help the economy reduce its emissions than just focussing on the risks.

☆ Morning Bid: Paging Mr. Powell
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Asian stocks edged lower on Tuesday after recent gains even as Asian tourism-focused businesses geared up for a return of Chinese tourists after the country's borders reopened on Monday. Later on Tuesday, Fed boss Powell is set to make a speech that could give further clarity on the pace of rate hikes while U.S. inflation data out on Thursday will further cement expectations. In Japan, consumer inflation exceeded the central bank's 2% target for a seventh straight month in a sign of broadening inflationary pressure. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsMeanwhile, the French need to prepare to work longer than they do now. Reporting by Anshuman Daga; Editing by Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Investors wait to hear from Fed Chair Powell at central banking forum
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Powell is set to participate in a panel discussion on central bank independence at an event hosted by Sweden’s central bank, the Sveriges Riksbank. It will also be attended by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and European Central Bank member Isabel Schnabel, among others. That has enabled the Fed to start easing back on the size of its historically high rate hikes meant to cool the economy and fight rising prices. These three central banks are fighting in different conditions, but they share a similar battle strategy: Keep tightening. Thursday’s Consumer Price Index for December — which will be the new year’s first check on inflation — will also provide helpful clues to investors about whether US price hikes are sufficiently cooling.

☆ Morning bid: Obstacle course ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Atlanta Fed chief Raphael Bostic said they expect Fed rates - now at 4.25% to 4.5% - will need to rise to a 5% to 5.25% range to sap inflation. The other big market obstacle of the week is the onset of the U.S. corporate earnings season. Four American banking giants - JPMorgan (JPM.N), Bank of America (BAC.N), Citigroup (C.N) and Wells Fargo (WFC.N) - report earnings on Friday. Diaried events and data releases that may provide direction to U.S. and world markets later on Tuesday:* U.S. Dec NFIB small business survey. * U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem and European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel all speak at Swedish central bank event.

With liquidity lower due to holidays, the dollar index was down around 0.3% on the day at 103.720 . "But for the near-term outlook we’re looking for some more performance in the euro versus the dollar." The euro was up 0.2% on the day at $1.0681 , on track for a 6.2% annual loss versus the dollar, compared to last year's 7% drop. The British pound was down 0.1%, set for a 11% annual drop . Still, it was set for an 8.6% annual drop, hurt by dollar strength and a domestic economic slowdown.

Summary U.S. dollar up 8.6% so far in 2022Euro set for 6.2% annual lossLONDON/SINGAPORE, Dec 30 (Reuters) - The dollar was on track for its biggest annual gain since 2015 on Friday, in the last trading day of a year dominated by Federal Reserve rate hikes and fears of a sharp slowdown in global growth. In thin trading, the dollar index was down around 0.1% on the day at 103.900 . The euro was flat on the day at $1.066 , on track for a 6.2% annual loss versus the dollar, compared to last year's 7% drop. The Bank of Japan's ultra-dovish stance has seen the dollar gain 14.5% versus the yen so far this year, in the yen's worst performance since 2013. The onshore yuan was set for its worst annual performance in 28 years, hurt by dollar strength and a domestic economic slowdown.

☆ Gold ticks up in light trade after holiday weekend
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Gold prices edged up in early Asian hours on Tuesday, helped by a softer dollar, although trading was thin after the long Christmas weekend. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $1,810.00. Data on Friday showed U.S. consumer spending rose 0.1% in November after climbing 0.4% in October, while inflation cooled further. The European Central Bank must be prepared to take the heat and raise interest rates further, ECB policymaker Isabel Schnabel said in an interview published on Saturday. SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.1% to 913.01 tons on Friday.

☆ ECB must be ready to take the heat and raise rates more, Schnabel says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

FRANKFURT, Dec 24 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank must be prepared to take the heat and raise interest rates further, including by more than the market expects, if that is needed to bring down inflation, ECB policymaker Isabel Schnabel said in an interview published on Saturday. The ECB raised rates for a fourth straight time last week and hinted at further hikes - jolting euro zone bond markets and triggering a backlash from the Italian government. "Whether we will still need to go higher than that will depend on the future inflation outlook," she told German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. She added that the ECB will focus on medium-term inflation expectations, rather than current readings, and saw little risk of raising borrowing costs too far at present given that real interest rates are still very low. Schnabel said the ECB should weather the pressure.

☆ ECB's Schnabel sees little risk of overreacting to inflation
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

FRANKFURT, Dec 24 (Reuters) - European Central Bank policymaker Isabel Schnabel sees little risk of raising borrowing costs too far at present given that interest rates are still very low after they are adjusted for inflation, she said in an interview published on Saturday. "The danger of overreacting continues to be limited, as real interest rates are still very low," Schnabel told German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. Reporting By Francesco Canepa; editing by Philippa FletcherOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

[1/2] Signage is seen outside the European Central Bank (ECB) building, in Frankfurt, Germany, July 21, 2022. After being wrong-footed by sudden price rises, the ECB has been raising rates at an unprecedented pace. Inflation has soared since economies reopened after the COVID-19 pandemic, driven by supply bottlenecks and then surging energy costs following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. "We judge that interest rates will still have to rise significantly and at a steady pace," Lagarde told a news conference following its rate announcement. Money markets immediately moved to price in a peak deposit rate of just over 3% by July, compared to 2.75% before the meeting.

[1/2] Signage is seen outside the European Central Bank (ECB) building, in Frankfurt, Germany, July 21, 2022. Economists polled by Reuters expected the ECB to raise the rate it pays on bank deposits to 2% on Thursday before pushing it to 2.5% by March and 2.75% by June. The ECB was also due to lay out plans to stop replacing maturing bonds in its 5 trillion-euro portfolio, reversing years of debt purchases that have turned the central bank into the biggest creditor of many euro zone governments. The ECB will announce its policy decisions at 1315 GMT, followed by a news conference of President Christine Lagarde at 1345 GMT. "The counterpart of slower rate hikes will be hawkish guidance on the terminal rate ... accompanied by earlier or faster 'passive' QT."

☆ Inflation is falling. But the days when prices rose just 2% may never return
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-13 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Energy prices are pulling back because of fears of a global recession, and the price to ship a container across the ocean has plummeted. In the United States, consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 7.1% in November, the smallest increase since December 2021. Prices rose by 10.7% in the United Kingdom last month, down from 11.1% in October, according to data published Wednesday. But even if this bout of inflation has peaked, economists are warning the world may not return to simpler days when prices barely rose at all. At least for now, supply of critical minerals can’t keep up, which could force prices higher at times.

Headline inflation slowed in November for the first time in 1-1/2 years, to 10%, raising hopes that sky-high price growth has passed. ECB President Christine Lagarde will likely be careful about calling a peak after last year's "big mistake" of insisting surging prices were "transitory," said Pictet's Ducrozet. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane reckons wages would be a "primary driver" of price inflation even after energy price shocks fade. Closely-watched business activity data points to a mild recession and latest forecasts should show how the ECB views the coming slowdown. Lane believes record price growth will start to subside next year.

EARLY WARNING SIGNSAfter years of tame inflation, Fed officials and other central bankers say they have faced a chain of disruptive events beyond their control ranging from the COVID-19 pandemic to the Ukraine war. The central bank has made conservative estimates on inflation despite Russia cutting gas supplies to Europe in response to Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine. Even as some economists say an inflation peak could now be in sight, central bankers remain far from taming inflation. The concern among some central bankers is that politicians will respond by raising public spending and so aggravate the inflation pressure that their rate-hike cure is intended to heal. If that were to happen, central bankers “would have to reverse course to prevent the debt market from becoming more disorderly," Goodhart told Reuters.

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