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Here are stocks that win when inflation slows
  + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Inflation moderated a tad in April, and so stocks that win historically when inflation eases could be big winners ahead if that trend continues. The easing in inflation could give a boost to stocks that have historically tracked the opposite direction of rising prices, according to Bank of America analysis. The Wall Street firm created an "Anti-Inflation" screen with S & P 500 companies whose relative performance has a strong negative relationship — or beta — with inflation. Amazon is on the top of the list with the strongest negative relationship to inflation. Consumer staples should also benefit from easing inflation, including Clorox and Kroger , which have historically moved in opposite direction to inflation.
Bed Bath & Beyond is closing hundreds of stores this year after filing for bankruptcy. Another 360 Bed Bath & Beyond locations and 120 buybuy Baby locations are set to shutter their doors by the end of June. BoA expects these hot spots to be gobbled up by off-price retailers that have near-term plans to expand. TJX's HomeGoods subsidiary is a runner-up, with only 38% of BBBY stores being within a one-mile radius and 52% within two miles. Off-price retailers' store proximity to Bed Bath & Beyond store locations.
Analysts at a major Wall Street research firm see multi-year growth and share gains ahead for off-price retailers. Under this scenario, lower-income consumers will choose to spend their money at off-price retailers. The analysts like Ross Stores (ROST) best, and called Burlington Stores (BURL) high-risk, high-reward, with a multi-year turnaround story. Bank of America, in a note this week, emphasized that the off-price retailers, including TJX, will be eager to take over the additional closed Bed Bath & Beyond locations. Bottom line We're encouraged to hear from Bernstein that lower-income consumers might be ready to spend more at off-price retailers, leading the analysts to say they would view "Q1 off-price weakness as an entry point" into the stocks.
Consumers across all income levels are pulling back on spending, according to a Barclays Capital promotions tracker, prompting analyst Adrienne Yih to downgrade a host of retail stocks. However, Yih said, the pace of sales and discounting suggests that this scenario — a V-shaped recovery — is now less likely. FIGS 6M mountain Barclays downgraded Figs shares to underweight from equal weight. Figs shares shed 6%, Canada Goose fell more than 5% and Victoria's Secret was down more than 3%. CPRI YTD mountain Capri shares have fall 31% since the year started.
Lululemon – Lululemon shares surged more than 16% before the Wednesday open after posting a strong holiday quarter and sharing upbeat guidance for the current fiscal year. The athleisure wear company reported adjusted earnings of $4.40 a share on $2.77 billion in revenue and said same-store sales climbed by 27%. Carnival Corp — Shares of the cruise line climbed 2.5% in premarket trading after Susquehanna upgraded Carnival to positive from neutral. Micron fiscal second quarter results missed analyst expectations on both the top and bottom lines, according to Refinitiv consensus estimates. Paychex Inc. — Shares of the payroll services company were up nearly 3% premarket ahead of fiscal third-quarter earnings due after the close on Wednesday.
UBS shuffles retailers: Ross Stores (ROST) to sell; Burlington (BURL) to sell; Club name Foot Locker (FL) to sell. Apple Pay Later allows four payments over six weeks. Users can apply for Apple Pay Later loans of between $50 and $1,000. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade.
Micron Technology — The semiconductor manufacturer added 5.3% after management said it was planning a bigger headcount reduction than previously expected. Carnival — Shares gained 3.6% after being upgraded by Susquehanna to positive from neutral. The move comes a day after the stock gained 6.1% following an upgrade by Wells Fargo to equal weight from underweight. Urban Outfitters , Burlington Stores , Foot Locker , Ross Stores — Shares of major retailers declined Wednesday after UBS downgraded the group to sell from neutral. Petco — Shares of the pet health and wellness company gained 5% after CEO & Chairman Ron Coughlin disclosed a 61,000 share purchase.
Work from home has in part jacked up food prices, and the increase is about 14% above just last year. The only bank that looks like Silicon Valley Bank is First Republic Bank (FRC) because it, too, has suffered huge deposit withdrawals. Nike (NKE)said China orders were good, so did Club stock Starbucks (SBUX). As counterintuitive as it is, the banking row will give the 4.8% fed funds rate a chance to cool consumer spending. This gives stocks a window to advance until we begin earnings season with what will no doubt be a cautious banking sector.
Off-price chains are likely to get a boost in the months ahead as shoppers seek low prices. Ross Stores is planning to open 100 new locations this year, while T.J. Maxx plans 150 openings, and Burlington as many as 80. 2023 is looking like a strong year for off-price chains like Burlington Stores, Ross Stores and T.J. Maxx, as shoppers look to save money where they can. Off-price chains could benefit from retail closures and bankruptciesAs other retailers close swaths of stores nationwide, discounters are expanding. Paul Weaver/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty ImagesAnalysts see a banner year ahead for BurlingtonBurlington may be the smallest of the major off-price retailers, but it's poised to have a big year.
Logistics Giant Kuehne + Nagel Seeks Expansion
  + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Paul Berger | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +5 min
Kuehne + Nagel CEO Stefan Paul. Photo: Kuehne + NagelAs a forwarder, Kuehne + Nagel helps companies move freight around the world by ocean, air and land and is a dominant player in the automotive, industrial, retail, aerospace, healthcare and high-tech industries. What do you see as potential growth areas for Kuehne + Nagel in the contract logistics space? Does that make it easier for a company like Kuehne + Nagel to jump in? How would that affect Kuehne + Nagel?
In these tough times, investors would be well advised to find stocks that are positioned to navigate a potential economic downturn. To help with the process, here are five stocks chosen by Wall Street's top professionals, according to TipRanks, a platform that ranks analysts based on their past performance. However, the company issued conservative guidance for fiscal 2023 due to the impact of high inflation on its low-to-moderate income customers. Further, he thinks that Kontoor's fiscal 2023 outlook "will likely prove conservative." Poser raised his fiscal 2023 and 2024 earnings per share estimates, reiterated his buy rating for Kontoor Brands and increased the price target to $60 from $53.
(See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
The latest Fed projection for the so-called terminal rate — the level where the rate hikes stop — was just over 5%. Before this past week, those intraday levels hadn't been seen since November 2022. ET: ISM Services Looking back January's hot reading on core PCE on Friday was the most influential economic number of the past week. In Club earnings this past week, Nvidia (NVDA) was certainly the highlight. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
The optimism about inflation and the U.S. economy is quickly waning on Wall Street, and the early 2023 rally for stocks is fading. The market was under pressure again on Friday after a hotter-than-expected reading for personal consumption expenditures, sending rates higher and stocks lower. Economic updates Next week brings a new round of economic indicators to see how the sticky inflation is affecting consumers and business. Other looks at the economy will come through key earnings reports. Speech by Fed Governor Christopher Waller Friday: 9:45 a.m. Markit Services PMI 10:00 a.m. ISM Services PMI 3:00 p.m.
Feb 21 (Reuters) - TJX Cos Inc (TJX.N) is likely to see a strong growth in annual sales as inflation pushes bargain-hungry but brand-conscious customers to off-price retailers offering cheaper deals and promotions. A case in point is Nordstrom Inc (JWN.N), which cut its annual profit forecast after its off-price store chain Rack failed to attract people despite heavy discounting due to inventory mismanagement. Jessica Ramirez, analyst at Jane Hali and Associates, said TJX is in tune with what the customer is shopping for and are interested. "TJX is very strong with their assortment ... they have been able to bring a lot of good names into their product offerings," she said. Reporting by Ananya Mariam Rajesh and Aatrayee Chatterjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Arun KoyyurOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
That's likely to make off-price retailers like Club holding TJX Companies (TJX) even more attractive to many Americans looking for cost-saving deals in the new year. Total retail sales in the U.S. dropped 1.1% in December month-on-month, the Commerce Department said Wednesday, in the second consecutive monthly decline. Retail sales had fallen by 1% in November. Morgan Stanley analysts expect off-price retailers to benefit from consumers shifting spending habits away from high-end shopping toward discounts. Off-price retailers like TJX have a great opportunity to snag a wide range of merchandise from big-box retailers with elevated inventory for very cheap prices.
Dollar General announced more than 1,000 store openings in 2022, per company Coresight Research. Other companies that opened many stores in 2022 include Aldi, Ross Dress For Less, and Five Below. And discount stores have reaped the benefits: Dollar General's stock soared to an all-time high in November 2022, for example. With so many people looking to save money, discount stores led the pack for retailers in opening new locations next year. Dollar General — 1,024 storesDollar General.
Brick-and-mortar stores are acting like mini fulfillment centers. These shifts, which began with the pandemic, have lingered even as life in the US has mostly returned to normal. Stores have become a lot like fulfillment centersPATRICK T. FALLON/AFP via Getty ImagesThe pandemic didn't kill brick-and-mortar retail, but it did change it. Big-box retailers are opening stores againWith all these changes, you'd think brick-and-mortar retail would be on its deathbed. Big-box retailers are opening more stores than they're closing for the first time in years, despite experts warning that brick-and-mortar would never recover from the pandemic.
Credit Suisse has refreshed its list of top U.S. stock picks. Microsoft is among Credit Suisse's "top of the crop" ideas, along with Discover Financial and Motorola Solutions . Here are 10 of Credit Suisse's top picks: Microsoft is a recurring "top of the crop" pick, chosen by Credit Suisse analysts for its potential to "disproportionately benefit" from the accelerated shift from infrastructure and platform layers to cloud-first roadmaps. Among the newcomers, Ross Stores is one of Credit Suisse's top picks among discount retailers. Credit Suisse's price target is about 4% from Tuesday's closing price.
Certain stocks are poised to gain the most if high inflation is past its peak, according to analysts from the Bank of America. In the past-peak inflation environment, certain stocks are set up to potentially gain, according to a Dec. 6 note by Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at Bank of America Securities. This means that as inflation subsides, these stocks should get a boost. Other retail names on Bank of America's list include O'Reilly Automotive , Clorox , Ross Stores , Home Depot and Lowe's . Some of these companies picked out by Bank of America have also been able to hold up amid rising inflation.
Because of this, Morgan Stanley compiled a list of fortress stocks that could situate and protect investors' portfolios for a pending recession. It offers a cash-to-enterprise value of 11.3%, with free cash flows expected to grow just 1.6% next year, before jumping to nearly 31% the year after. The company's free cash flows are forecasted to grow 20.9% next year and 11.1% the following year. Multiple semiconductor names were included in the screen, including Qualcomm , which offers cash as a percentage of enterprise value of 4.3%. The company is expected to grow free cash flows by 64% next year, but that's forecasted to slow to just 17.4% the following year.
The holiday shopping season got off to a solid start over the weekend, as Black Friday's online sales beat expectations and started to build some much-needed momentum for the retail sector. According to Adobe's online sales tracker, consumers shelled out a record $9.12 billion shopping online on Black Friday. In another early look report, traffic on Black Friday at brick-and-mortar retail stores rose about 3% over 2021, according to retail tracker Sensormatic, which attributed the rise to increased promotional activity and "favorable in-store experiences." The analysts point out that this year's holiday shopping calendar is one day longer than in 2021. Bottom line With holiday shopping underway, we continue to like off-price retailers in these trying times.
The best performer this week was electronics retailer Best Buy , which is up about 14% this week. Its performance comes off per-share earnings and revenue beats reported in third-quarter earnings Tuesday. The stock is rated a buy by 61.1% of analysts, whose average price target implies shares should go up about 2.4%. Shares of discount retailer Ross Stores popped after the company beat expectations for per-share earnings and revenue last week. Just over half, or 52.2%, of analysts give it a buy rating, with an average upside of 1.6%.
A major rally could be ahead of some stocks that are forming "golden cross" patterns heading into the year-end. A golden cross chart pattern forms when the 50-day moving average climbs above the 200-day moving average. These names underperformed this year through the end of the third quarter, but they're outperforming the S & P 500 in the fourth quarter. However, it has since rebounded 28% in the fourth quarter, while the S & P 500 is up more than 10% in that time. The discount retailer is up 33% in the fourth quarter, when it was down 26% through the first three quarters this year.
At the same time, the bank called TJX its "top pick within off-price retail for supply chain margin recovery." The retail industry has been weighed down by a global supply chain crisis in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. But with the Federal Reserve aggressively raising interest rates to suppress demand and rein in inflation, supply chain bottlenecks are now beginning to ease. Cowen's take Costco's supply chain this year has been interrupted by port delays, shortages of raw materials and labor costs. On TJX, we agree that supply chain volatility creates opportunities for the off-price retailer, as its business model targets name brands struggling with excess supply.
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