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☆ I'm very keen on the Fed taking a pause, says Pantheon Macroeconomics' Ian Shepherdson
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailI'm very keen on the Fed taking a pause, says Pantheon Macroeconomics' Ian ShepherdsonIan Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest jobless claims data, the Fed's rate hike campaign, and more.

Persons: Ian Shepherdson Ian Shepherdson Organizations: Fed, Macroeconomics

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Pantheon Macroeconomics' Ian Shepherdson
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Pantheon Macroeconomics' Ian ShepherdsonIan Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest jobless claims data, the Fed's rate hike campaign, and more.

Persons: Ian Shepherdson Ian Shepherdson Organizations: Macroeconomics

☆ German exports rise unexpectedly in April on China reopening
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BERLIN, June 5 (Reuters) - German exports rose unexpectedly in April, boosted by deliveries to China following its post-pandemic reopening, but analysts warned that the momentum could be short-lived. German exports increased by 1.2% on the previous month, the federal statistics office said. Exports to China were up 10.1%, while exports to the U.S. were up 4.7% and exports to the European Union rose 4.5%, the office said. The foreign trade balance showed a surplus of 18.4 billion euros ($19.68 billion) in April, up from 14.9 billion euros the previous month. "The temporary push in exports to China will fade with time," ING's global head of macro at ING Carsten Brzeski told Reuters.

Persons: Alexander Krueger, Hauck Aufhaeuser, Claus Vistesen, ING Carsten Brzeski, Holger Schmieding, Klaus Wohlrabe, Rachel More, Maria Martinez, Kirsti Knolle, Gareth Jones Organizations: Reuters, European Union, Macroeconomics, ING, Thomson Locations: BERLIN, China, Hauck Aufhaeuser Lampe, U.S, Ifo

☆ Yes, you can have a red-hot jobs market and a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The U.S. jobs market is still sizzling and the economy is heading for a recession: Both things can be true. May's nonfarm payrolls growth again stunned Wall Street, with the count climbing by 339,000, well ahead of Wall Street estimates that have consistently undershot the report since January 2022. However, there's an old adage on the Street that when it comes to recessions, the jobs market is always the last to know. Central bank policymakers specifically have targeted a slowdown in the labor market in their quest to bring down inflation. The weak services reading comes with an ISM manufacturing reading — most recently at 46.9 — in contraction for seven straight months.

Persons: Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson, Kumar, Andrew Hunter, Hunter, DataTrek, Nicholas Colas Organizations: Federal, Pantheon, Fed, Sri, Kumar, Services, Capital Economics, Research, Atlanta Locations: payrolls

☆ The job market held up in May. But the Fed may have already decided to pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Washington, DC CNN —The US labor market picked up momentum in May, once again defying expectations of a slowdown. Many economists, including those at the Fed, still expect a recession later in the year. The labor market and signs of future disinflationThe May jobs report mostly showed that the labor market held up. Some top economists have argued that the strong labor market has had a minor, albeit growing, impact on inflation. Hawkish Fed officials still think the Fed’s job isn’t done.

Persons: That’s, Joe Biden’s, ”, Philip Jefferson, Patrick Harker, “, ” Harker, It’s, ” Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter’s, you’ve, you’d, Dave Gilbertson, hasn’t, Ben Bernanke, ” Jack Macdowell, Louis President James Bullard, Bullard, Louis Fed’s, Louis, Jerome Powell, there’s, Ian Shepherdson, Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, National Association for Business Economics, CNN, Employers, of Labor Statistics, BLS, UKG, The Palisades Group, Hawkish Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Louis Fed, Pantheon Locations: Washington, Washington ,

☆ Elon Musk is wrong about a housing-market crash
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Alcynna Lloyd | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Selma Hepp, the chief economist at CoreLogic, said that's not going to happen. The nation's dearth of housing supply will keep home prices high and prevent a crash. On Monday, the billionaire — who has built a multi-million dollar portfolio of real estate properties — shared one of his most contentious opinions so far in 2023: "Commercial real estate is melting down fast. She said the housing naysayers are wrong and that the housing market is instead heading towards a recovery. Hepp attributes the real estate market's rebound to an imbalance of housing supply and demand that has heightened competition amongst borrowers.

Persons: Elon Musk, Selma Hepp, that's, —, Ray Farris, Ian Shepherdson, Freddie Mac, Hepp, CoreLogic, San Francisco — Organizations: Service, Privacy, SpaceX, Credit Suisse, San Locations: West Coast, Diego, Durham , Connecticut, Boston, New York City, Redfin

Since the release of their last economic projections in March, the unemployment rate has fallen and inflation has largely moved sideways. She expects the Fed to keep its policy rate steady this month "while hinting at potential further hikes," a way to compromise among different views and keep pressure on financial conditions. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and others insist that sort of erratic path is not their base case. The intent, rather, is to reach a "sufficiently restrictive" policy rate and remain at that level until it is clear inflation is falling towards the Fed's 2% target. "I do think they are done" with rate increases, he said, but "I cannot rule out another hike in June."

Persons: they've, Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO, Jerome Powell, Philip Jefferson, Larry Meyer, Ian Shepherdson, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Market Committee, Reuters Graphics Reuters, North, Fed, Consumer, Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Labor Department, Pantheon, Thomson Locations: U.S, North American, Washington

☆ UK house prices fall by most since 2009, higher rates to bite-Nationwide
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, June 1 (Reuters) - British house prices fell by the most since 2009 in the 12 months to May and the country's housing market faces further headwinds after a recent jump in borrowing costs, mortgage lender Nationwide said on Thursday. Compared with May last year, the average house price was down 3.4% after a 2.7% annual fall in April, Nationwide said. House prices edged down by 0.1% in May from April after a monthly 0.4% rise in April, Nationwide said. Martin Beck, an economist with the EY Item Club, a forecasting group, said the 4% fall in house prices from last August's peak was modest compared with the 7% rise in house prices over the past two years. Analysts at Capital Economics said prices would fall another 8% while Pantheon Macroeconomics said they would drop 4%.

Persons: Liz Truss's, Headwinds, Robert Gardner, Gardner, Martin Beck, BoE, Beck, William Schomberg, Muvija M, Paul Sandle, Christina Fincher Organizations: Nationwide, Bank of, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: Bank, Bank of England

☆ Pantheon: Impact of debt deal on the economy likely modest
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPantheon: Impact of debt deal on the economy likely modestIan Shepherdson, chief U.S. Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, goes over the probable impact of the U.S. debt deal on the economy.

Persons: Ian Shepherdson Organizations: Economist, Macroeconomics

Analysts say the proposed debt ceiling deal could have only marginal effects on the US economy. "The impacts will be negative but small," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, told CNN. Here's what's in the proposed deal and how it would show up in the broader economy:What's in the deal? It would keep non-defense spending relatively flat in fiscal 2024 and then set a cap of 1% in spending increases for fiscal 2025. The debt deal and GDP.

Persons: Mark Zandi, Goldman Sachs, Ian Shepherdson, Gregory Daco Organizations: Moody's, CNN, Internal Revenue Service, Pantheon, Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: West Virginia

☆ US home prices just jumped for the second-straight month, suggesting the housing downturn could be over. Here are the 6 cities where prices are rising the fastest.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

In the 20-city version of the index, all 20 of the cities saw home prices rise month-over-month. "That said, the challenges posed by current mortgage rates and the continuing possibility of economic weakness are likely to remain a headwind for housing prices for at least the next several months." "A shortage of listings, plentiful jobs, and strong wage growth are largely offsetting the headwind to housing from high mortgage rates," Adams told Insider. Their reasons include high mortgage rates, historically low affordability, and a potential recession. Below, we've listed in descending order the six cities in the Case-Shiller 20-city index that posted month-over-month growth of at least 2%.

Persons: Craig J, Lazzara, Bill Adams, Adams, Suisse's Ray Farris, Rosenberg Research's David Rosenberg, Ian Shepherdson, American Enterprise Institute's Desmond Lachman, Skylar Olsen Organizations: Home, NSA, Redfin, Comerica Bank, American Enterprise Locations: Denver, Detroit, San Francisco, San Diego, Seattle, Minneapolis, West Coast, Miami , Florida, Tampa , Florida, Charlotte, North Carolina

☆ Debt ceiling deal won’t have much impact on the US economy, analysts say
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The US economy is the world’s largest, so the relatively modest effects on growth could be good news for investors who feared the debt ceiling crisis could have posed a greater and more widespread drag. Here’s what’s in the proposed deal and how it would show up in the broader economy. What’s in the debt ceiling dealThe deal would suspend the federal government’s $31.4 trillion debt limit through January 2025. The debt deal and GDPEconomists at Goldman Sachs expect the deal to reduce federal spending by as much as 0.2% of gross domestic product per year over the two years of the deal, compared with their baseline estimate. “Getting this uncertainty out of the way for markets and decision makers has a real impact,” said Mike Skordeles, head of US economics at Truist Advisory Services.

Persons: Joe Biden, Mark Zandi, Biden, Goldman Sachs, ” Goldman Sachs, Ian Shepherdson, Gregory Daco, ”, Mike Skordeles, Zandi, ” Michael Reynolds Organizations: DC CNN, House Republicans, Moody’s, CNN, Internal Revenue Service, Congressional, Pantheon, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Truist Advisory Services, Investment, “ Locations: Washington, West Virginia

☆ Investors are losing hope for a Fed pause and bracing for another interest-rate hike instead. Here's what 8 experts have predicted.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Investors are losing hope that the Federal Reserve will pause its interest-rate hikes in June. For example, several market experts have warned the commercial real estate industry is at risk if the Fed keeps raising borrowing costs. "But I do think it's possible they're going to raise a little more. Ed Yardeni, market veteran"The market has been remarkably resilient, mostly because the economy has been remarkably resilient," Yardeni said in a CNBC interview. "So I think they're where they want to be – and I think they're going to keep it here."

Persons: They're, —, Mohamed El, David Solomon, Goldman Sachs, Solomon, It's, Jamie Dimon, Dimon, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, Doom, Roubini, Mark Zandi, Zandi, Mark Nash, Nash Organizations: Federal, Service, Bank, Signature Bank, First Republic, Fed, Erian, Allianz, CNBC's, JPMorgan, CNBC, Bloomberg, NYU Stern, Jupiter Asset Management

☆ Famed economist David Rosenberg says home prices are set to fall further as buyers retreat to the sidelines and a hawkish Fed means stubbornly high mortgage rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

With mortgage rates unlikely to budge and incomes unlikely to grow, prices are due to drop. Housing affordability is calculated by accounting for three variables: home prices, mortgage rates, and incomes. Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics who said in the 2005 that a housing downturn would spark a recession, made the same argument in recent weeks. Now that's quite striking because mortgage rates are no longer at peak, but applications are still falling. This would send interest rates — and therefore mortgage rates, which trade closely with Treasury rates — higher, further hurting demand and affordability, Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi recently told Fortune.

☆ German economy enters recession as first-quarter GDP data is revised lower
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-25 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The German economy entered a technical recession in the first quarter of this year, as households tightened spending. Data from the German statistics office on Thursday showed a downward revision to GDP (gross domestic product) from zero to -0.3% for the first three months of the year. The European Central Bank is expected to raise rates again at its next meeting on June 15. German Central Bank Governor Joachim Nagel said earlier this week that the ECB has "several" more rate increases ahead. He is one of the most hawkish members of the central bank.

☆ The biggest home buyers in America are now selling more property than they're buying
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Commercial property headwinds aside, today we're looking at the residential housing market, which is undergoing its own shifts, but not exactly in the same direction. Tell someone that the housing market is so unfavorable right now that the biggest home buyers in the country are actually net sellers now. American Homes 4 Rent, for example, bought 312 single-family homes and sold 666 to start the year. Similarly, Invitation Homes, the largest owner of single-family rentals in the US, bought 194 homes and sold 297 in the first quarter of 2o23. Naturally, the housing market has slowed down for everyday Americans, too, given the steep mortgage rates and lack of affordability.

☆ There's one simple reason why US housing inventory is set to remain low for the foreseeable future
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The share of outstanding mortgages financed at less than 3% jumped during the pandemic, said Pantheon Macroeconomics. New home listings in April were down more than 20% from a year ago, according to Realtor.com, with steepening mortgage rates a factor. It also found that about 97% of outstanding mortgages are fixed for 15 years or for 30 years, and 60% are just one to four years old. "In other words, most existing homeowners are not going to move unless they absolutely have to, due to death, divorce, or an—irresistible—job offer," said Clancy. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is averaging 6.55%, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association on Thursday.

☆ Housing market shifts are driving out some of the biggest home buyers in the country
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Institutional investors bought 90% fewer homes in the first two months of 2023 compared to a year ago. High rates and home prices have turned some big buyers into net sellers this year. That trend accelerated from the fourth quarter, when institutional home-buying activity slumped 79% from a year ago, according to Fortune. Among the institutional investors, American Homes 4 Rent was a net seller of homes in the first quarter, buying 312 single-family homes and shedding 666, per Fortune. Similarly, Invitation Homes — the largest owner of single-family rentals in the US — was a net seller in the first quarter.

☆ UK economy limps along as high inflation hits spending
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

“Sky-high inflation, negative real wage growth and general cost of living pressures are weighing on the consumer, and in turn the services industry which is typically a key growth engine for the UK economy,” she added in a note. The Bank of England raised interest rates for the 12th consecutive time Thursday in its battle with double-digit inflation. The central bank expects the UK economy to grow by 0.25% this year and by 0.75% in 2024 — a much more positive assessment than in February, when it forecast contractions of 0.5% and 0.25%, respectively. Inflation still highConsumer price inflation in the UK remains stubbornly high, holding above 10% in the year to March. “With inflation still in double digits, it feels depressingly like a re-run of the 1970s.”The Bank of England expects inflation to fall sharply over the coming months.

☆ Credit Suisse's chief US economist says home prices will likely fall another 5-10% — and that gridlock between buyers and sellers will prevent both appreciation and a larger crash
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Credit Suisse's Chief US Economist Ray Farris says home prices will see a 'long recession.' Rather, the market is likely to go through a sort of holding period, where activity stays low and prices neither boom nor bust. You can spread the housing market over many more locales in the US and that's what's happening." And the way I think of that, as a base case, it means that even as mortgage rates come down, the housing market doesn't recover rapidly. Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner is one economist that — like Farris — doesn't expect a recession, and only sees prices falling another 4% this year.

☆ A chief economist who called the 2008 housing crisis says home prices are set to drop another 15% as falling mortgage rates and a recession will create a supply-demand imbalance
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

This will drag 30-year mortgage rates — which track closely with 10-year Treasury rates because they typically have a lifespan of around 12 years — down to 6% or lower. One might argue that falling mortgage rates would also stimulate demand enough to meet the rise in supply, holding prices relatively steady. Now that's quite striking because mortgage rates are no longer at peak, but mortgage applications are still falling. Tight monetary policy and a pullback in lending will lead to a cooling labor market, he said, and that's bad for housing demand. Below is the National Association of Realtors' Housing Affordability Index, which takes into account incomes, home prices, and mortgage rates.

☆ 'Recession is a done deal': A renowned market bear who called the dot-com bubble warns a deep and long downturn will destroy corporate profit margins — setting stocks up for disaster
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-06 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

But as data continues to come out in the months ahead, Edwards says to pay attention to details beneath the headline numbers. Sure enough, revisions to February and March numbers reported on Friday paint a picture of a weakening labor market. "I think the recession will lead to a collapse in margins and profits and do a lot of damage." In terms of his view on the labor market, Edwards has company in Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. But bulls do remain, and they're betting on a scenario where inflation continues to come down — it hit 5% in March, down from its 9.1% peak last year — and the labor market remains intact.

☆ 'I think they're overdoing it': A chief economist who called the 2008 recession says the Fed is 'making a huge mistake' by continuing their rate hikes — and warns the economy is likely to unravel in s
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

He's now warning a recession is on the US economy's doorstep amid a credit crunch. One is the fact that the Fed's rate hikes haven't completely worked their way into the economy yet. A credit crunch means consumers are less able to spend and businesses are more likely to fail, heightening recession risks. Well no, it means everything was fine, but it doesn't guarantee that things will remain fine," Shepherdson said. "The credit crunch plus just the lag effect of the interest rate increases I think means it is not going to be fine."

☆ King Charles' coronation will be an economic boost, Buckingham Palace says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Michael Holden | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/3] A souvenir King Charles flag hangs inside a shop ahead of the Coronation of King Charles and Camilla, Queen Consort in London, Britain, April 30, 2023. REUTERS/Henry NichollsLONDON, May 3 (Reuters) - The coronation ceremony for King Charles on Saturday will be the most glorious display of pageantry seen in Britain for a generation and will provide an economic boost to the nation, its organiser and Buckingham Palace have said. The royals will, as is traditional, wave to the crowds from the balcony of Buckingham Palace afterwards, and there will be a flypast by military aircraft. As the palace has previously acknowledged, the service itself will be different to that of Queen Elizabeth seven decades ago, reflecting the different eras. ($1 = 0.8015 pounds)Reporting by Michael Holden; Additional reporting by David Milliken; Editing by Jonathan OatisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ A former IMF official says it's 'very likely' US home prices fall 15-20% as a credit crunch creates a lose-lose scenario for the housing sector and the debt ceiling standoff threatens a substantial re
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

A credit crunch, an already-slowing economy, and the debt-ceiling standoff risk a downturn. If these smaller institutions are loaning out less money, this further hurts demand in the housing market, meaning home prices have to fall accordingly. On the other hand, a credit crunch puts the US economy at significant risk of a recession, Lachman said. "Housing gets hit by tighter credit conditions, but then it also gets hit if the economy goes into recession." KPMG's Yelena Maleyev believes prices could fall as much as 20%, while Interactive Brokers' José Torres sees 15% downside.

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