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WASHINGTON, May 17 (Reuters) - U.S. single-family homebuilding increased in April, but data for the prior month was revised sharply lower, suggesting that the embattled housing market was struggling to find a floor, despite a retreat in mortgage rates. Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, rose 1.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 846,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday. Data for March was revised down to show single-family homebuilding falling to a rate of 833,000 units instead of increasing to a pace of 861,000 units as previously reported. A survey on Tuesday showed the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market index increased in May to the midpoint mark of 50 for the first time since July 2022 as a dearth of previously owned homes supported new construction. The housing market has taken the biggest hit from the Federal Reserve's fastest monetary policy tightening campaign since the 1980s to tame inflation.
New home construction rose in April after a dip in March
  + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
However, housing starts, a measure of new home construction, were down 22.3% from a year ago, according to data released Wednesday by the Census Bureau. After surging in February following five consecutive months of falling, housing starts fell in March. Single‐family housing starts in April rose 1.6% from the revised March figure, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 833,000. Building permits, which track the number of new housing units granted permits, fell in April after also dropping in March. Building permits were down in the Northeast and Midwest, but climbed in the South and West.
Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services rebounded 0.7% last month, the Commerce Department said. Data for March was revised slightly down to show these so-called core retail sales slipping 0.4% instead of 0.3% as previously reported. Core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product. Economists estimated that core retail sales adjusted for inflation rose by about 0.6% in April. Sales at food services and drinking places, the only services category in the retail sales report, rose 0.6%.
It's the fifth straight month of gains and the first reading of builder sentiment since July that wasn't negative, which would be a reading below 50. With mortgage rates now double what they were a year and a half ago, some potential sellers may be reluctant to trade to another home at a higher rate. Homebuilders also drew more buyers by offering incentives, like buying down mortgage rates. Sentiment in the Midwest rose 2 points to 39. In the South, it increased 3 points to 52, and in the West moved 3 points higher to 41.
Consumers barely kept up with inflation in April, as retail sales increased but fell short of expectations, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. The advanced sales report showed an increase of 0.4%, below the Dow Jones estimate for 0.8%. Excluding auto-related figures, sales increased 0.4%, which was in line with expectations. As the numbers are not adjusted for inflation, the headline increase equaled the 0.4% monthly rise in the consumer price index. Miscellaneous store retailers led gainers with a 2.4% increase, while online sales rose 1.2% and health and personal care retailers saw a 0.9% rise.
Yes, You Can Still Sell Your House—Maybe Even Buy One
  + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Justin Lahart | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
PHOTO: Joe Raedle/Getty ImagesThe spring home-selling season is under way, and America’s housing market is a mess. Just not quite the mess it was at the end of last year. Last week, the National Association of Realtors reported that a seasonally adjusted 4.44 million existing (previously owned) homes were sold in March at an annual rate. That was down from February’s 4.55 million and far below the 5.69 million registered in March of 2022. Also last week, the National Association of Home Builders said that its housing-market index—a measure of builders’ views on the market—rose to 45 this month from March’s 44.
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US existing home sales resume downward trend in March
  + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Last month's sales likely reflected some contracts signed in February, when mortgage rates started rising again after mostly decreasing in January. "Consumers appear to be very sensitive to changes in mortgage rates," said Lawrence Yun, the NAR's chief economist. "The week-to-week changes in mortgage rates are having a big impact." Home resales, which account for a big chunk of U.S. housing sales, tumbled 22.0% on a year-on-year basis in March. A survey on Monday showed the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market index climbed to a seven-month high in April.
5.5% may be a magic number for mortgage rates
  + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
Mortgage rates more than doubled over the past year, reaching as high as 7.08% in November, according to Freddie Mac’s average weekly mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed rate loan. The survey found that 5.5% mortgage rates seem to be the tipping point. A majority of respondents — 71% — said they are not willing to accept a mortgage rate above 5.5%. Looking at forecasts of mortgage rates for the rest of the second quarter of 2023, no major forecast is even predicting rates under 6%. Furthermore, 5.5% is lower than the historical average for mortgage rates.
The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF climbed Tuesday with shares of the country's largest home builders rising. Home construction fell 0.8% to a 1.42 million annualized rate, with a decline in construction starts of multifamily units. Despite the weakness in housing data, Bespoke outpointed that housing stocks have been rallying, pushing the ITB ETF close to 52-week highs. The ETF and housing starts data have tended to track each other over the past ten years. "They usually say the market looks six months forward, but in the case of housing stocks and housing data, recently it's been more like five," it said.
Summary Single-family housing starts increase 2.7% in MarchSingle-family building permits jump 4.1%Overall housing starts fall 0.8%; permits drop 8.8%WASHINGTON, April 18 (Reuters) - U.S. single-family homebuilding increased for a second straight month in March, while permits for future construction surged, offering some glimmers of hope for the depressed housing market ahead of the busy spring selling season. The improvement in the single-family housing market segment, which was reported by the Commerce Department on Tuesday, likely reflected buyers taking advantage of a retreat in mortgage rates. A survey on Monday showed falling mortgage rates and tight supply of previously owned houses were supporting the new home market. Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, rose 2.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 861,000 units last month. Single-family housing starts dropped 27.7% on a year-on-year basis in March.
Other data on Monday showed manufacturing activity in New York state increased for the first time in five months. Housing and manufacturing have been hammered by the Federal Reserve's fastest interest rate hiking campaign since the 1980s. The survey's measure of current sales conditions rose two points to 51. The survey's measure of future business conditions rose to 6.6 from 2.9 in March. The capital spending index rose 3.2 points to 16.5, while the technology spending measure fell to 10.3 from 13.3 in March.
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose to 45 in April, a one-point gain. Builders in the report cited a lack of listings on the resale market, which gave them an unusually strong edge. Slightly lower mortgage rates are also helping demand — though rates are still higher than they were a year ago. "Builders note that additional declines in mortgage rates, to below 6%, will price-in further demand for housing," said Alicia Huey, NAHB chairman and a custom homebuilder and developer from Birmingham, Alabama. It marked the first time both of the indicators were positive since June, when mortgage rates really took off.
Homebuilder sentiment rises in April
  + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Diana Olick | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHomebuilder sentiment rises in AprilCNBC's Diana Olick joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss April's National Association of Home Builders Index numbers.
The housing market is not a generation-versus-generation cage match. "So the fact that they are now trailing behind the baby boomer population just speaks to the difficulty of the housing market today." A lot has changed in the housing market since the NAR's survey period. In a housing market of "haves" and "have nots," equity-rich homeowners have the edge over hopeful first-time buyers. Millennials know that they have time on their side, since boomers will eventually age out of the market entirely.
WASHINGTON, March 16 (Reuters) - U.S. single-family homebuilding and permits for future construction rebounded in February, offering hope that the housing market was probably stabilizing after being hammered by higher mortgage rates. Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, increased 1.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 830,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. Single-family homebuilding increased in the Northeast and West, but tumbled in the densely populated South as well as the Midwest. Single-family housing starts dropped 31.6% on a year-on-year basis in February. The inventory of single-family housing under construction fell 1.7% to a rate of 734,000 units.
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose two points to 44. "But given recent instability concerns in the banking system and volatility in interest rates, builders are highly uncertain about the near- and medium-term outlook." Of the index's three components, current sales conditions rose two points to 49, and buyer traffic rose three points to 31. Accordingly, the housing market continues shifting as growing household and family formation continued to drive demand against a chronic supply shortage." In the South it rose five points to 45, and in the West it moved four points higher to 34.
Washington, DC CNN —US home building fell again in January, marking five straight months of declines, even as mortgage rates moderated and inflation cooled. Housing starts, a measure of new home construction, fell by 4.5% in January from December. Starts in January fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.31 million, down from the revised December estimate of 1.37 million. Housing starts had big drops in May and July last year, when spiking mortgage rates pushed many prospective home buyers to the sidelines. With mortgage rates that have trended lower since November, builders have begun to feel more optimistic that conditions may improve in 2023.
Washington, DC CNN —Home builder confidence jumped this month by the largest amount in almost 10 years, as falling mortgage rates pulled in more buyers. All three metrics rose in February for the second straight month, showing the strongest reading since September and the largest monthly increase for builder sentiment since June 2013. “Even as the Federal Reserve continues to tighten monetary policy conditions, forecasts indicate that the housing market has passed peak mortgage rates for this cycle,” he said. But mortgage rates that are lower now than they were last fall are improving affordability for buyers. The average mortgage rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage rate peaked last year at 7.08% in November, according to Freddie Mac.
Feb 15 (Reuters) - Confidence among U.S. single-family homebuilders improved for a second straight month in February - and by much more than economists had anticipated - in a fresh signal the housing market was turning a corner after last year's huge slump. The reading - the highest since September - was also higher than all 33 projections in a Reuters survey of economists, which had a median estimate of 37. A reading below 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as poor rather than good. Moreover, it appears that the peak in mortgage rates has passed, said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. NAHB said all four regions saw improved sentiment and the index tracking expectations for future sales rose for a third month.
America's homebuilders are growing more bullish as buyer demand picks up, driven in part by slightly lower mortgage rates. Homebuilder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes in February rose seven points to 42, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. This is the highest reading since September and the largest monthly gain since June 2013. The index stood at 81 in February of last year, before mortgage rates began to rise. Builders say affordability is improving, as mortgage rates fall back from their highs of last fall and start to settle in a narrow range.
U.S. stock futures slipped on Tuesday night following the release of January's hotter-than-anticipated consumer price index. Inflation data for January came slightly above economists' estimates, indicating a potentially longer path in the Federal Reserve's fight against rising prices. Commenting on the monthly uptick in inflation data, Yardeni added, "I think we're going to have some bumps along the road. Key inflation data will also be announced on Wednesday. Investors will also be looking toward the latest retail sales data to gauge consumer demand and retail inflation.
According to two separate indices existing home prices rose to the highest level in 6 years. Joe Raedle | Getty ImagesThe U.S. housing market cooled off pretty dramatically last year, after mortgage rates more than doubled from historic lows. Now, as demand appears to be coming back into the market, due to a slight drop in mortgage rates, prices are pushing back. But mortgage rates began to fall in December, and prices reacted immediately. Lower mortgage rates are driving the new demand.
The cost of homeownership will rise for millions of Americans in coming weeks as new property-tax assessments arrive in the mail. Property taxes have risen across much of the country in recent years. In the most recent data available, the median tax bill increased more than 8% to $2,795 per homeowner in 2021 compared with 2019, said David Logan , senior economist at the National Association of Home Builders.
The Biden administration announced several new protections for renters on January 25. At the same time, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, an independent organization that helps regulate the mortgage market, will create new policies that encourage development of affordable-rental units. Insider reviewed the documents the White House released concerning the new initiatives. The idea comes as many renters continue to organize in order to combat what they see as unwarranted rent increases and evictions. Some home builders like Jerry Konter, the chairman of the National Association of Home Builders, disagreed with the new protections for renters.
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