It’s clearer than ever after months of close polling and years of intense polarization: Who wins the 2024 presidential election could come down to tiny differences in who votes and who stays home.
But an analysis of the poll also shows how the composition of the electorate and small changes in who decides to vote could lead to small but important swings in the election.
The more Democratic-leaning turnout universe is one that sees more women, nonwhite voters and higher-educated voters turning out, as well as those from the cities and suburbs.
And the one favoring Republicans relies on the opposite: more white people, more men, more voters without college degrees and more from rural communities.
But in the meantime, the analysis shows how small changes can have a big effect on a close election.
Persons:
Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Trump, Harris, pollsters
Organizations:
NBC, ’, Hart Research Associates, Democratic, Trump