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☆ Election forecasts are fueling the rally, but stocks need to hit this level to win over the bears
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. The multi-day bounce has now taken the S & P 500 back to where it sat as Fed Chair Powell started taking questions and overtly raised his own outlook for how high rates must go six days ago. The ICE Bank of America MOVE Index (the Treasury market's VIX) is still in an uptrend but these pullbacks have coincided with equity rallies all year. The average stock has dropped 36% from its high and the equal-weight S & P is at a relatively undemanding 14-times forward earnings. VIX bottoms (and equity rally tops) have come a few times this year near 19.

☆ Reports of possible Meta layoffs could point to 'self-help' moment for megacap stocks
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. Apple is holding the S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite in check, giving back more of its sizable outperformance and "stability premium," though oversold Big tech is seeing some relief. Heavy layoffs at Meta hinting that a "self-help" moment has arrived to hep preserve mega-cap tech platform margins even as last week's messy purge of busted-growth cloud stocks persists. The S & P 500 since 1950 has never been down the six or 12 months after a midterm vote, and the returns on average for the post-midterm year are twice all other years. All of this is pretty contingent, the S & P 500 still churning under resistance, earnings forecasts inching lower, much reliance by bulls on positioning and seasonal factors.

☆ A key threshold awaits the S&P 500, which could test the staying power of this October rally
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. The tape's refusal to buckle on bad news (the consumer price index report, megacap tech earnings blowups, etc.) Yet again, the market is trying to make its peace with a new higher threshold of rates that few foresaw coming even six months ago. Profit forecasts continue to drop though still at a measured pace for the fourth quarter, with 2023 an unknown. Weekend column gets into the ins and outs of seasonal factors, which fail just often enough for people to doubt them.

☆ Breaking down October's big stock bounce — and why the market didn't need Big Tech to do it
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. -The S & P has managed tentatively to have broken the downtrend from the mid-August peak and has rebuilt a bit of a cushion. Before the report AMZN had traded exactly in line with S & P 500 over the prior three years. -Market breadth today is mixed, 50-50, AAPL really pushing the indexes quite a bit on its own. VIX succumbing to stronger indexes and the "Friday effect," though will likely rebuild into the Fed next week.

☆ Tesla is testing a key chart level first reached after being added to the S&P 500
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. With one eye on the Treasury market and another on corporate results, the S & P 500 is sticky around the 3,700 level for a third straight day. The S & P 500 rebound from the Sept. 30 and Oct. 13 CPI-reaction low has cleared an initial hurdle, crossing above its 20-day average, something it had failed at three times since mid-August. There is now a solid LEI peak in place and the pre-recessionary clock has been ticking for a bit now. The lead times can be long (two years from 2005-2007) between LEI peak and formal recession.

☆ The biggest takeaway from Bank of America's earnings, and what it means for the broader stock market
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. There has been no net downside since June 16 even with yields higher, earnings expectations slipping and recession anticipation becoming entrenched. And the S & P has not even bounced back to Friday morning's high at this point, so it could be simply a bit more noisy, untrustworthy action. This market has many issues, but the valuation of the typical stock is no longer one of the top ones. Here we see year-ahead P/E ratios for the S & P 500, equal-weighted S & P 500 (back near late-2018 lows) and S & P 600 Small Cap (near Covid crash low).

☆ Where stocks are finding some support ahead of Thursday’s inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-11 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. This could simply be a matter of short-term oversold conditions, a pause in the bond-yield surge and general hesitation ahead of a crucial-seeming CPI report Thursday. There's some focus on the S & P 500's 200-week (1,000-day) moving average offering an excuse for some support here, as it did at the end of 2018. Forecasts have come in a lot (S & P 500 consensus down 7 percentage points ex-energy since July), but it's unclear if that's enough. VIX is sticky in the low-30s, a pretty agitated state, and likely will stay inflated into/through Thursday's CPI report.

☆ Assessing where the S&P 500 will bottom this time as it heads back toward June lows
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. Given how the oversold indicators are piling up, a test or near-test of buyer's appetites is underway or should be soon. Having 2022 act as the year when all the tough medicine was administered has some appeal both for policy makers and investors. -Seeing some migration toward lower-volatility stocks, pharma, staples, some energy and Microsoft bouncing small after a recent breakdown. Need new lows or a capital-markets accident to jerk it much higher.

☆ Higher rates are leaving investors around the world with nowhere to hide
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-20 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. Once again, nothing happening now is incompatible with this being a prolonged, messy bottoming effort longer term. Are equities still "too expensive" with bond yields here, the 10-year neat 3.5%? The S & P index, maybe, at 16.5x, with some cross-asset models saying it should be one or two multiple points cheaper. VIX getting puffed up 24 hours ahead of the Fed decision, near 27, mechanical stuff.

☆ Oversold conditions are starting to emerge for stocks ahead of the Fed's decision
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-19 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. Last week's decline after the hot consumer price index report pushed off the perceived moment of a Fed truce took the S & P 500 below the 3,900 area bulls were hoping would hold. The 2-year Treasury yield pushing 4% is rippling across asset classes, reflecting the combined inflation backdrop and anticipated Fed response. Some equity-valuation models tied strictly to this yield suggest the S & P 500 forward price-earnings "should" be more like 13x-14x rather than the current 16.5x. It's a crude instrument for gauging fair value but has largely been in tune with valuation trends in recent years.

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