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☆ The stock market is quiet right now. Perhaps too quiet.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( Joe Ciolli | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

By multiple measures, the stock market is the calmest it's been since the end of 2021. JPMorgan quant guru Marko Kolanovic says the equity market is far too placid right now, considering all the headwinds it's facing. He says technical factors are suppressing volatility in the face of rising rates, credit tightening, and macro risks. download the app Email address By clicking ‘Sign up’, you agree to receive marketing emails from Insider as well as other partner offers and accept our Terms of Service and Privacy PolicyThe stock market is awfully quiet right now. Those rising rates have led to a tightening of credit availability, a dynamic reinforced by recent banking-system turmoil.

☆ Stock ETFs are seeing accelerated inflows even as grimmer Wall Street predictions warn of a bear market ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Zinya Salfiti | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stock ETFs pulled in more than $12.6 billion in April, according to data from Bloomberg. It's the largest inflow into such funds since January and more than double the pace seen in February and March. Investors are pouring large amounts into equity ETFs even as Wall Street predictions warn of a bear market ahead. Wall Street veteran Ed Yardeni wrote: "In late October, we concluded that sentiment was so bearish it had to be bullish." Then, the current bull market is likely to resume, in our opinion," according to the Yardeni Research founder.

☆ Zero-day options fad could be why Wall Street's fear gauge appears to be showing less fear
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-15 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The index gets its value derived from option prices on short-term bets being made on the S & P 500. Market strategists say one explanation for the muted VIX is the explosion of zero-day-to-expiration options (ODTEs), contracts that expire the same day that they're traded. "The VIX Index might have become obsolete as a risk barometer," Doug Ramsey, Leuthold Group's chief investment officer, said in a note. Daily notional volumes in these 0DTE options that track the S & P 500 index have exploded to reach a record $1 trillion, according to JPMorgan. LPL Financial analyzed VIX levels for all trading days when the S & P 500 was in a drawdown ranging from 18.5% to 28.5%.

The ECB's systemic risk indicator for the United States, for example, has returned to its lowest level in a year. The near $400 billion that dashed for money funds after the Lehman Brothers bust in late 2008 - despite credit fears in some of those funds - had completely retreated by early 2010. The relative interest rate attraction of bills and repos after the steepest Fed rate rises in 40 years should make this year's flows far stickier - unless or until the Fed were to embark on some dramatic rate easing. Either way, there's now no shortage of savings in cash if or when the lights go green. by Mike Dolan, Twitter: @reutersMikeD; Added chart from Andy Bruce; Editing by Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ JPMorgan's top stock strategist says market gains make little sense, S&P 500 to retest lows
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Top Wall Street strategist Marko Kolanovic said the recently rally in stocks was merely a dead cat bounce as there has been no material improvement in fundamentals. Stocks staged a swift comeback last month as investors shook off recession fears worsened by the banking crisis. The S & P 500 jumped 3.5% in March, while the Nasdaq Composite added 6.7%, notching its best quarter since 2020. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500 The S & P 500 hit a 52-week low of 3,491.58 on Oct. 13. Wall Street strategists on average see the S & P 500 ending the year at 4,127, implying that stocks would stall from here, according to CNBC's Market Strategist Survey , which rounds up 15 top strategists' forecasts.

☆ The stock market rally is over as commercial real estate risks begin to compound, JPMorgan's chief market strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The stock market rally is nearing its end as risks related to commercial real estate begin to rise, according to JPMorgan. The bank believes the highs for the stock market have been made in 2023, with further downside ahead. "Commercial real estate stresses appear to be compounding, amplified by banking shocks that could complicate their debt roll," Kolanovic warned. Kolanovic isn't the only one on Wall Street that's concerned about the sky-high debt pile that's coming due for commercial real estate. "Commercial real estate [is] widely seen as next shoe to drop as lending standards for CRE loans to tighten further," Bank of America's Michael Hartnett said last week.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: First Republic Bank is trying to save itself
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Markets might face a Minsky moment soon, warned Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan Chase's chief market strategist and co-head of global research. With that in mind, investors might want to heed Kolanovic's warning that a Minsky moment could be on the horizon. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Not everyone’s happy about UBS buying Credit Suisse
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

☆ JPMorgan's Kolanovic warns of possible 'Minsky moment' ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Add up the recent bank failures, geopolitical shocks and uncertainty about central bank policy and you get the potential for a "Minsky moment" in markets, according to JPMorgan Chase. Marko Kolanovic, the firm's chief market strategist and co-head of global research, warned that the current conditions of unsustainable speculation and easy policy are ripe for a market collapse. "The possibility of a Minsky moment in markets and geopolitics has increased," he wrote in a client note Monday. "Even if central bankers successfully contain contagion, credit conditions look set to tighten more rapidly because of pressure from both markets and regulators." "Cracks are beginning to emerge in US credit fundamentals, and Euro credit spreads will likely continue to widen unless we see meaningful policy intervention," Kolanovic wrote.

☆ 0DTE options could turn 5% intraday market decline into 25% rout -JPMorgan
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

March 6 (Reuters) - Trading in new near-dated U.S. options contracts can supercharge volatility in U.S. stocks, potentially leading to tremendous intraday declines, analysts at JPMorgan said. The U.S. equity options market has seen a rise in the trading of options contracts set to expire at the end of the trading day - dubbed 0DTE (zero day to expiry) options - with their daily notional value rising to about $1 trillion, according to JPMorgan data. Their recent growth has been eyed as one cause of intraday volatility, with JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic last month warning they could spark a massive volatility event under certain circumstances. Such a scenario could occur if the S&P 500 fell 5% in five minutes, triggering $30.5 billion in 0DTE option-related trading that would tack another 20 percentage points onto the index's decline, the bank’s analysts said. Furthermore, JPM noted that retail traders were not the main driver of volume growth in 0DTE options, with individual investors accounting for about 20% of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY.P) options volume and only around 5% of the S&P 500 same-day options.

☆ Daily trading in zero-day options hits a record $1 trillion, fueling concern of ‘Volmageddon 2.0’
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-05 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Daily notional volumes in these 0DTE options that track the S & P 500 index exploded to reach a record $1 trillion, according to JPMorgan data. What are 0DTE options? How does one profit from 0DTE options? 0DTE options give traders an opportunity to capitalize on positions quickly, especially when there's a catalyst to move the prices. Alternatively, he or she can sell the options contract before the expiration date at the market price of the contract to pocket the difference.

☆ Bank of America's stock chief warns the S&P 500 could fall another 26% as valuations remain too elevated and decades of market history show half of the criteria for a bottom still aren't being met
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-04 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The S&P 500 could fall to as low as 3,000, they said. In a note this week, Wilson said that the S&P 500 remains overvalued relative to history by price-to-earnings and price-to-sales metrics. S&P 500 P/E multiples are 9% above their median while P/Sales multiples are 23% above median," Wilson said. "History implies that for the current level of real rates the S&P 500 multiple is ~2.5x overvalued," the chief market strategist said. Wilson's end-of-year target for the S&P 500 is 3,900, while Krishna and Kolanovic have targets of 3,725 and 4,200, respectively.

☆ The Fed's own economists are warning of a 19.5% housing correction and more rate hikes could set off a 'domino effect'
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

For more on that, I recommended reading my colleague Dan DeFrancesco's excellent 10 Things on Wall Street newsletter. And for today, let's see why the Fed's own economists are warning of a nearly 20% housing correction. They argued US home prices would have to tumble nearly 20% to bring the housing market back to fundamentals — and additional Fed rate hikes could lead to an even worse housing correction. Have you entered or exited the housing market in the last year? These four charts explain the troubling state of the housing market right now.

☆ Premarket stocks: Bad sign for stocks: Bond yields are white hot again
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

The recent global bond rally appears to be tapering off as investors are getting a cold wet dose of reality about Fed rate hikes. Bonds compete with stocks for investors’ dollars, and when yields go up, equities often go down. That tonal shift has sent stocks lower and Treasury yields higher, as investors rethink their views on the path of interest rates. The Federal Reserve’s efforts to date to bring down inflation while maintaining a strong labor market appear achievable, she added. “As a result, although Fed rate hikes could slow the labor market in the coming months, we think labor supply faces persistent headwinds in the longer run.”

☆ Interest rates suggest the stock market is wildly overvalued, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market is wildly overvalued based on current interest rates, according to JPMorgan. Interest rates have surged over the past year, with the 2-year US Treasury note yielding just over 4.8% as of Tuesday morning compared to just 1.3% a year ago. Such a swift surge in interest rates has put pressure on market valuations while at the same time exposing vulnerabilities in corporate profits. "History implies that for the current level of real rates the S&P 500 multiple is ~2.5x overvalued," Kolanovic warned. That's a marked shift from expectations of rate cuts just a few weeks ago, and could keep strong downward pressure on the stock market.

☆ The stock market's euphoric rally has been a head fake, Wall Street's top strategists warn
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-25 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The year-to-date rally can't last, according to Morgan Stanley's chief US equity strategist. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. He added: "This is a perfect analogy for where equity investors find themselves today, and quite frankly, where they've been many times over the past decade." Goldman Sachs' chief US equity strategist David Kostin has said he is also skeptical of the market's gains so far in 2023. Meanwhile, JPMorgan's top stock strategist Marko Kolanovic, a long-time equities bull, says investors should ditch stocks because a recession is coming.

☆ Reddit-loving retail investors are making their chaotic presence felt again - and their risky behavior is fueling a stock rally that doesn't look sustainable
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Bullish sentiment has returned in a big way among retail investors as they've started the year piling record amounts into stocks. Speculative bets are backSome of what retail investors are buying has troubled observers. Different from 2021, however, is that institutional and retail investors look like they're on the same team, at least to a noticeable degree. To JPMorgan's Kolanovic, retail investors' optimism foreshadows future weakness in the stock market, as weak hands get wiped out by volatility, similar to how 2022 played out. With the Fed still set to tighten monetary policy, retail investors' enthusiasm for risky assets could backfire like it did last year.

☆ The S&P 500 faces a near-term selloff and likely won't rally until the Fed starts cutting rates, JPMorgan's top strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The S&P 500 faces pain ahead and likely won't rally until the Fed starts cutting rates, according to JPMorgan's top strategist. "We really think the Fed will need to cut the rates for the market to rally on a sustainable basis," Marko Kolanovic said. The benchmark index notched its worst day so far this year on Tuesday as investors worry the Fed will keep rates high. The S&P 500 notched its worst day of the year so far, dropping 2% to close below 4,000. Kolanovic gave a price target of 4,200 price target for the S&P 500 this year.

☆ Here's why Wall Street's top analysts don't think the bear market is over
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Strategists across Wall Street are warning stocks are in for more pain, despite the strong start to 2023. Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson compared investors buying stocks now with ill-prepared climbers on Mount Everest. Here's what experts at some of the biggest banks are saying about what's ahead for stocks. Morgan Stanley's top strategist Mike Wilson wrote in a note this week that stocks have soared too high too fast, and those highs will ultimately prove unsustainable. He said the bidding-up of these speculative stocks suggests a bout of massive market volatility could be just around the corner.

☆ You could see 5% more downward pressure on the markets, says JPMorgan's Kolanovic
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailYou could see 5% more downward pressure on the markets, says JPMorgan's KolanovicJPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss where he sees the markets headed right now, as well as what he thinks the Fed is going to do.

☆ The stock market has been flipped and investors are taunting the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

As my colleague Matthew Fox writes, the stock market has been completely flipped upside down so far in 2023. This is the type of trading behavior you'd expect to see when interest rates are closer to 0% than 5%. To Kolanovic, the errant investor behavior foreshadows a plunge in the stock market. US stock futures fall early Tuesday, as investors stay worried that persistent inflation means interest rates will stay higher for longer. SoFi's Liz Young warned that a lack of reserve funds could stop this year's stock market rally: "What the equity market is not pricing in at this point, or is not worried enough about, is consumer spending."

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with JPMorgan's Marko KolanovicJPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss where he sees markets headed right now, as well as what he thinks the Fed is going to do.

☆ A former BlackRock stock chief says he thinks the S&P 500 will fall another 17% as investors ignore a growing mountain of tell-tale recession signals
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-18 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Doll says the S&P 500 will drop to 3,400 if a mild recession unfolds. If a more normal recession (more severe than a mild downturn) comes, Doll said the index could fall to 3,000. The Fed's recession probability tracker based on the yield curve also now puts the odds of a recession at 57%. Subramanian expects the S&P 500 to fall as low as 3,000, a view shared by Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson. If trouble hits, like Doll and much of Wall Street expects, stocks could extend their fall to new lows.

☆ Retail investors are flooding into the stock market at a record level — Here's what they are buying
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Retail investors poured a record amount of money into the stock market in January, according to Vanda Research. Retail investors' interest in the market picked up during the Covid pandemic, at one point fueling a meme-stock frenzy. JPMorgan's chief global market strategist, Marko Kolanovic, also recently noted the pickup in retail interest. Here are the top securities bought by retail investors so far this year, as of Feb. 15, according to Vanda Research. "Contrary to popular belief, retail money market funds' net assets at an all-time high suggest that retail investors still have plenty of capital to allocate to riskier investments, provided that market conditions remain supportive," he added.

ORLANDO, Fla., Feb 16 (Reuters) - The notion that higher interest rates would slam stocks has been turned on its head by Wall Street's resilience to the most dramatic upward repricing of the U.S. rate outlook in decades. More remarkable still, it is the areas most sensitive to higher borrowing costs - tech, the Nasdaq and growth stocks - that are outperforming in the face of soaring bond yields, implied rates and Fed expectations. These sectors are more sensitive to rising yields because future cash flows and profits are discounted at higher rates. "Higher interest rates are less bad for stock prices, even though rates can continue to weigh on multiples." In a higher rate regime, profitability matters.

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