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☆ TPG starts a dicey dance with death Down Under
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Antony Currie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Little wonder, then, that TPG is taking advantage of Australia’s InvoCare (IVC.AX) recently losing market share, and earnings, by offering shareholders A$1.8 billion ($1.5 billion) on Tuesday. But the private equity firm run by Jon Winkelried has started a dicey dance with death. At 5%, for example, annual interest payments on the new debt would be almost $50 million – a third of InvoCare’s expected EBITDA next year. Follow @AntonyMCurrie on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSTPG Global, a fund run by U.S. private equity firm TPG, on March 7 made a non-binding, indicative offer for InvoCare which values the Australian funeral-services company’s enterprise at almost A$2.2 billion ($1.5 billion). The private equity firm had the previous day bought an almost 18% stake in the company from a variety of investors at A$12.65 a share.

☆ Kakao can end K-pop saga with near-$1 bln mic drop
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Kakao and its entertainment arm are eyeing a 35% stake in SM via a tender offer worth $962 million. If Kakao succeeds, the company, which has the backing of SM's management, would become the label's top shareholder. Kakao Entertainment in January raised $930 million from investors including GIC in Singapore and Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund. The envisioned partnership between Kakao, Kakao Entertainment and SM would cover global distribution, production and more for music and other content. Following Kakao's offer, SM Shares rallied 14% to 148,400 won ($114); they have nearly doubled since the start of the year.

☆ Open-source software braces for trade war
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

HONG KONG, Feb 27 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The open-source software movement has been an unprecedented driver of global innovation and productivity growth. As with most Chinese handset makers, founder Ren Zhengfei relied on Android’s open-source code to run his company’s smartphones. Beijing has reciprocated, per a Nikkei report, by instructing its own tech companies not to incorporate ChatGPT into their platforms - a rare example of a mutual firewall. Dividing the world into competing open-source camps would mark another reverse for free trade. Follow @petesweeneypro on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSRegulators have told major Chinese tech companies not to offer ChatGPT services, the Nikkei news service reported on Feb. 22 citing sources with direct knowledge, causing shares in Chinese companies building chatbots to fall.

With Alibaba shares down 30% in one month, enthusiasm for China's return to normalcy is peaking early. The Alibaba chief executive also cautioned that January was a "challenging time" and that the company is keeping an eye on how the reopening develops. Alibaba has hit the limits of the reopening boon. Reuters GraphicsFollow @mak_robyn on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSAlibaba on Feb. 23 reported revenue of 248 billion yuan ($35.9 billion) in the three months to December, an increase of 2% year-on-year. Adjusted earnings rose 12% to 40 billion yuan.

☆ Beijing mutes ChatGPT meme rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

HONG KONG, Feb 23 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The rally in Chinese stocks associated with conversational bots, a side-effect of the popularity of OpenAI’s ChatGPT, has been knocked sideways. Beijing has ordered big Chinese technology companies including Tencent (0700.HK) and Ant not to offer ChatGPT services on their platforms, the Nikkei reported citing people with direct knowledge. The latter’s Hong Kong shares surged 45% between the start of the year and early February, before falling by a fifth since. OpenAI, which is backed by Microsoft (MSFT.O), won’t let Chinese residents create ChatGPT accounts. Still, despite warm noises from Beijing about supporting technology companies, its politics still stifles innovation.

Worldwide boy-band sensation BTS may be on hiatus, but refreshing new financial acts threaten to upend the world of K-pop, and perhaps South Korea. The battle over 28-year-old SM Entertainment, the $2.3 billion force behind Girls' Generation and EXO, is at heart a family feud. It helps, too, that K-pop has turned into one of South Korea’s strongest exports, thanks largely to “Butter” and “Dynamite” singers BTS. "We oppose all aggressive outside mergers and acquisitions, including Hybe," SM said in a statement, according to Reuters. Separately, internet conglomerate Kakao said on Feb. 7 it would acquire a 9.05% stake in SM via 112 billion won of new shares and 105 billion won of convertible bonds.

☆ Shein's ambitions are a bit of a stretch
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Shein’s top-line growth slowed from 57% in 2021 to 45% last year; the company expects that to continue, with its 2025 target implying average annual expansion of 37%. Meanwhile, Shein's projected 13% profit margin dwarfs that of web retailers like China's JD.com (9618.HK). The $118 billion PDD (PDD.O) recently rolled out its Temu shopping service; it is now the most downloaded app in the United States. Using the same 2.4 times forecast 2025 sales multiple the Inditex enterprise trades on, Shein's valuation could top $140 billion. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Buffett TSMC's U-turn spotlights chips' siren call
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

HONG KONG, Feb 16 (Reuters Breakingviews) - A lot can change in three months, especially in the world of semiconductor investing. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa.N) inexplicably sold most of its $4.1 billion holding in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (2330.TW), a position only disclosed in November. For TSMC, Berkshire probably pocketed a 9% return, Reuters reported citing analyst estimates, having held the stake for roughly three months. He may be right about TSMC, which boasts a monopoly in advanced chipmaking and superior profitability - the "moats" Buffett prizes so highly. Moat or no moat, the outlook for chips is getting dicey.

☆ I started an Instagram fan page for luxury watches and turned it into an $8 million resale business — here's how
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( Claire Turrell | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

He launched the company in 2020 and opened a brick-and-mortar store in a mall in Hong Kong in 2021. When I was being interviewed by Hypebeast in Hong Kong, I met my future cofounder and ecommerce expert Sean Wong. By July 2020, Sean had left his job, and I'd moved to Hong Kong to launch the brand. The Wristcheck store in the Landmark Atrium mall in Hong Kong. By November 2022, we'd raised $8 million, with our lead investors being Gobi Partners, who manage the Alibaba Hong Kong Entrepreneurs Investment Fund.

☆ Alibaba exit is first remedy for Paytm’s woes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

MUMBAI, Feb 13 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Alibaba’s (9988.HK), exit will be a relief for India’s Paytm (PAYT.NS). The move makes sense for Alibaba, though Paytm’s other Chinese backer, Ant, may find it harder to cash out. Paytm’s languishing stock is up over 27% in four days following the better-than-expected quarterly numbers. That allowed Alibaba’s Singapore arm to exit the company at 643 rupees per share, a decent 10% higher than its average purchase price. That implies Paytm’s stock still has a steep climb before the Chinese payments group may be willing to sell.

☆ Chinese firms face embarrassment of listing riches
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

HONG KONG, Feb 10 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Global appetite for Chinese stocks is returning. Sensor-maker Hesai shares popped nearly 11% in what is the biggest initial public offering from the People’s Republic in New York since 2021. The country's sudden reopening has boosted economic activity, and regulators are prioritising growth over cracking down on private firms. Hedge funds have increased their exposure to Chinese equities back to 2020 levels, Goldman Sachs data shows. A steady stream of firms are mulling Hong Kong listings too.

But unlike ICBC and its peers, Ant neither took deposits, nor piled risky loans onto its balance sheet. Free from the red tape that binds regular banks, the loans facilitated by Ant ballooned. Digital offerings accounted for half of overall consumer loans in China, Fitch Ratings calculated in 2021. Ant is set to become a licensed financial holding company, putting it under the close watch of China's main banking regulator. Beijing wants Chinese consumers to consume, so is likely to indulge controlled growth of consumer credit.

☆ America's hazy chip deal fogs market signals
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Having unveiled sweeping new curbs targeting the People's Republic in October, American officials have lobbied friendly governments to follow suit. Companies like Dutch giant ASML and Tokyo Electron enjoy near-monopolies in chipmaking equipment, namely lithography machines and silicon-wafer coatings. Preventing them from selling to Chinese companies would deal a serious blow to Beijing’s technological progress. ASML and Tokyo Electron currently generate 15% and 26% of annual sales from China, respectively, and the People's Republic is Japan's top trading partner. Shares of Japanese suppliers including Tokyo Electron, ASML-rival Nikon and Canon all opened flat on Monday morning.

☆ The fog lifts for Didi's path to normalcy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

HONG KONG, Jan 13 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Didi Global's road ahead looks clearer. The move effectively removes a one-and-a-half year ban on new users for Didi, which has cost it dearly. Its market share has fallen more than 10 percentage points to 72% over the period, according to Bernstein analysts. That should help clear the way to an eventual re-listing in Hong Kong. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Uniqlo goes out on a limb in salary hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

HONG KONG, Jan 12 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Fast Retailing (9983.T), owner of the Uniqlo clothing chain, announced it would hike wages by up to 40% for some roles on Wednesday. The bigger question, though, is how much of an outlier Fast Retailing will be. Although Japan’s labour market is tight, weak growth and rising prices have caused real wages to contract for eight consecutive months through November. Fast Retailing, set to announce earnings today, was a market outperformer last year and is preparing a 3-1 stock split. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ TSMC foots the bill for global chip supremacy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (2330.TW) on Thursday reported a bumper end to 2022, with December quarter earnings up a blistering 78% year-on-year to a record $9.7 billion. But costs, from overseas expansion, research and development and other factors are forecast to eat into profitability as the market enters a downturn. But TSMC also flagged R&D expenses will rise by a fifth this year, as developing next-generation technology gets pricier. Moreover, the company's new factories in the United States are adding to TSMC's expenses: executives said that construction costs are five times higher in America than in Taiwan. Capital expenditure is also forecast to be as much as $36 billion in 2023, roughly matching last year's level.

☆ Olam’s Saudi-Singapore IPO sign of shifting times
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, Jan 11 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Signs of deepening ties between Asia and the oil-rich Gulf are coming thick and fast. A planned Saudi Arabia-Singapore dual listing this year for Olam Agri, a trader of grains and seeds, is the latest example. Corporate and financial moves underscore how the global pin-code, as Olam’s co-founder and Chief Executive Sunny Verghese puts it, is changing. Between population trends, the Russia-Ukraine war and polarising geopolitics, expect the Gulf and Asia to get cosier. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ China’s wolf warriors start 2023 in retreat
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

HONG KONG, Jan 10 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Beijing has taken the mic away from combative foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian. His transfer follows other de-escalatory moves, thawing relations with major trading partners including Australia, Japan and the United States. It will still take years to undo the diplomatic and economic damage his pack of “wolf warriors” has done to Chinese interests. loadingChinese moderates have criticised the wolf warriors’ competence. With the Western democracies demonstrating the durability of their power in Ukraine without firing a shot, Chinese pandemic policy in shambles and its economy reeling, it’s unsurprising if the wolf warriors are quieting their howl.

HONG KONG, Jan 9 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Jack Ma is leading China’s consumer internet out of the sin bin. After his fintech champion Ant said its founder will cede control, shares in affiliate Alibaba (9988.HK), rose 7% in Hong Kong on Monday morning. The company on Saturday announced that Ma's 50%-plus voting stake will be whittled down to roughly 6%, and a fifth independent director will join the board. Follow @mak_robyn on TwitterloadingCONTEXT NEWSChinese financial technology company Ant on Jan. 7 announced its founder Jack Ma will give up majority control of the company as part of a broader "corporate governance optimization". Ma held more than 50% of voting rights in Ant via his investment vehicle, Hangzhou Yunbo, which effectively controlled two other entities that owned a combined 53.46% stake in Ant.

☆ Chip woes short-circuit Samsung's best laid plans
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

HONG KONG, Jan 6 (Reuters Breakingviews) - South Korea's Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) can only defy gravity for so long. The worse-than-expected earnings guidance throws cold water on the chipmaker's aggressive supply and capital expenditure spending plans laid out in October. Analysts at Citi reckon Samsung’s memory chip capex this year will be roughly $25 billion, more than 10% lower than their earlier forecast. Samsung's best laid plans are starting to go astray. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

HONG KONG, Jan 5 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Western Digital (WDC.O) faces a daunting M&A challenge. Both outfits specialise in a type of memory chip called NAND flash, which is used in smartphones, computers and data centre servers. Yet even if the logic for a combination looks more compelling against this backdrop, the M&A hurdles Western Digital faced in 2021 are even more challenging today. The union between Western Digital and Kioxia will be a long slog, but worth it. Shares of Western Digital rose 7.7% to $35.63 during after-hours trading in New York on Jan. 4.

☆ Being ready for anything is top priority for 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-03 | by ( Peter Thal Larsen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

In the past three years, the world has been rocked by a string of unexpected and epoch-defining events. Anyone trying to think about what 2023 will bring is confronted by a staggering array of possibilities. Watch whether the United Arab Emirates, which hosts the COP28 climate conference in November 2023, distances itself from the OPEC oil cartel. Encumbered by lower stock prices and pricier financing, merger activity will remain subdued in 2023. Follow @peter_tl on Twitterloading(This is a Breakingviews prediction for 2023.

Foxconn, formally known as Hon Hai Precision Industry, is gearing up to supply cars, and the chips and batteries that go into them, to global marques. It sees automakers entrusting the company with production in Indonesia, Thailand, Saudi Arabia, the United States and beyond. Getting there requires Foxconn ditching a tried and tested business model. To make smartphones, the company relies on a few factories it owns in China and it has little say over the underlying supply chains and which components to use. Foxconn has also tied up with Ohio-based Lordstown Motors (RIDE.O) in the United States; its factory is already making electric pickup trucks and could start supplying to other American brands within a year.

☆ Singapore withstands a global property downturn
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-03 | by ( Thomas Shum | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

HONG KONG, Jan 3 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Property is crashing everywhere, except in Singapore. The Asian city-state’s private residential prices are up 14% year-on-year, according to third-quarter data from Knight Frank. That’s a sharp contrast to major cities like Hong Kong and Sydney, which saw decreases of 7% and 4% respectively over the same period. Home prices in Hong Kong, the world’s least affordable property market by far, could fall by as much as 30% by the end of 2023 from 2021 levels, reckon analysts at Goldman Sachs. Still, Leonard Tay, an analyst at Knight Frank, predicts an up to 5% increase for private home prices in 2023.

Elon Musk’s will-they-or-won’t-they Twitter debacle kept readers on tenterhooks via Refinitiv’s platforms and our two websites, Breakingviews.com and Reuters.com. Another piece posing the hard-hitting question, “What is Morgan Stanley (MS.N) smoking in Twitter LBO?”, garnered plenty of clicks on Breakingviews.com and via Refinitiv. Almost a third of the best-read lists tackled the outbreak of war in Europe, and its terrible ramifications. Views on the rouble and the prospect of the country’s economic collapse demanded attention. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

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