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☆ Dollar softer as US debt ceiling crisis unresolved, inflation data eyed
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, May 10 (Reuters) - The dollar weakened broadly on Wednesday after U.S. President Joe Biden and top lawmakers failed to break a deadlock on the debt ceiling crisis, though currency moves were marginal amid caution ahead of U.S. inflation data later in the day. The two, however, agreed to further talks and committed their aides to daily discussions about areas of possible agreement. "There has been a lot of attention lately on the debt ceiling issues," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA). Also preoccupying investors was U.S. inflation data, with economists polled by Reuters expecting a 5.5% year-on-year increase in core consumer prices for April. "I think markets are already expecting the Bank of Japan to make some moves."

☆ Dollar softer as U.S. debt ceiling crisis unresolved, inflation data eyed
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

An employee deals with U.S. one-hundred dollar banknotes at a bank on June 16, 2022 in Hai an, Nantong City, Jiangsu Province of China. The dollar weakened broadly on Wednesday after U.S. President Joe Biden and top lawmakers failed to break a deadlock on the debt ceiling crisis, though currency moves were marginal amid caution ahead of U.S. inflation data later in the day. "There has been a lot of attention lately on the debt ceiling issues," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Also preoccupying investors was U.S. inflation data, with economists polled by Reuters expecting a 5.5% year-on-year increase in core consumer prices for April. "I think markets are already expecting the Bank of Japan to make some moves."

☆ Stocks slide into Fed mode, shorts stalk banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Overnight, tumbling regional bank stocks (.KRX) dragged the S&P 500 (.SPX) down 1.2% and oil dived more than 5% on fears that shaky bank confidence and signs of weakness in the U.S. job market were harbingers of a looming broader slowdown. Bonds rallied as investors reckoned the Federal Reserve, which sets policy later on Wednesday, will soon be switching from rate hikes to cuts. Among banks, PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O), down 27.8%, Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL.N), down 15.1%, and Comerica Inc (CMA.N) down 12.4%, were the biggest losers. If that happens, focus will be on whether or how hard Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushes back on investors' expectations for rate cuts by year's end. The Australian dollar has given back some of the ground gained on Tuesday, following a surprise rate hike from the central bank, and sat at $0.6670.

☆ Dollar slides on sluggish US data, Aussie steadies ahead of RBA
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Against the sliding dollar, the British pound and the Australian and New Zealand dollars rose to multi-week highs in early Asia trade on Tuesday. The kiwi rose 0.2% to $0.6310, its highest since mid-February, while the U.S. dollar index was marginally lower at 102.02, having fallen more than 0.5% on Monday. "The closest thing we get to good news in (the) report is that the slowing in the factory sector is pushing prices lower and supply chains are continuing to heal, benefiting from the slack. The RBA will pause policy tightening according to a poll of analysts, although a strong minority still forecast a hike. Data out last week showed Australian inflation slowed to an eight-month low in February, due in part to a sharp retreat in prices for holiday travel and accommodation.

☆ OPEC+ oil production cut: The surprise was in the timing, Mizuho Bank says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOPEC+ oil production cut: The surprise was in the timing, Mizuho Bank saysVishnu Varathan of the bank discusses OPEC+'s decision to cut more than 1 million barrels a day of oil and says the "underlying intent was never really too far off."

☆ China's non-manufacturing PMI jumps to decade high as economic recovery gets back on track
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Hong Kong CNN —A key index measuring the strength of China’s massive services sector jumped to its highest level in more than a decade, as the country’s economic recovery gained traction. The official non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) soared to 58.2 in March from 56.3 in February, marking the best level since 2011, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). “The official PMIs suggest that China’s rapid reopening recovery remained robust this month,” Capital Economics analysts wrote on Friday. In a keynote speech, the newly minted premier told more than a thousand international business and political leaders that China’s economic growth was “strong,” with March’s performance even better than January and February’s. Top economic officials have also been trying to reassure both foreign business and the domestic private sector.

☆ Li Qiang: China's new premier tries to reassure private sector amid widespread concerns about future
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Hong Kong CNN —China’s new premier has tried to reassure the private sector in his debut press conference, as concerns grew about the country’s future policy direction with the introduction of a new cabinet loyal to leader Xi Jinping. Li Qiang, a long-time aide to Xi, officially succeeded Li Keqiang as premier over the weekend. Li Qiang speaks during his first press conference as premier at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on March 13, 2023. As a group of Xi’s close associates stepped into office, some Western-educated, reform-minded officials departed – including former Premier Li Keqiang and former Vice Premier Liu He. Analysts are worried that Xi’s preference for personal loyalty over technocratic competence signals a more ideology-driven policy direction that could further dent private sector growth and worsen Beijing’s ties with Washington.

☆ China's State Council shakeup aims to counter rising US tech restrictions and financial risks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

“These proposed institutional changes reflect key focus areas of Chinese policymakers in the next few years, namely improving financial regulation coordination to enhance financial stability,” Goldman Sachs analysts said on Wednesday. Among the changes announced Tuesday during the annual gathering of the National People’s Congress, Beijing will set up a new powerful financial regulator: the National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA). VCG/Getty ImagesA super regulatorChina’s financial system has traditionally been jointly overseen by the People’s Bank of China, the CBIRC and the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC). The new regulator is meant to “better manage risks” in the financial system and strengthen the supervision of “institutions, behaviors, and functions,” the government proposal said. The move comes as risks to the stability of China’s financial system are rising amid a housing market slump and economic slowdown.

☆ China's Li Keqiang announces lowest GDP target in decades amid major economic leadership overhaul
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Hong Kong CNN —China’s outgoing Premier Li Keqiang has announced the country’s lowest GDP growth target in decades, highlighting the domestic and global challenges the world’s second largest economy still faces despite its decision late last year to ditch draconian anti-Covid measures. It fell well short of the official growth target of “around 5.5%.”“Having declared the end of pandemic, the leaders are sticking to the slowing GDP growth path in the long term by lowering annual GDP target gradually,” said Ken Cheung, chief Asian foreign exchange strategist at Mizuho Bank. “Moreover, China has been downplaying the numeric GDP target and shifted to balance the quality since President Xi’s era,” he said. Premier Li also said the government would only raise fiscal spending by 5.6% this year, which is lower than the growth of 6.1% in fiscal spending in 2022. “After three years of pandemic [measures], it could be more than desirable for governments, especially the local governments, to restore fiscal resilience,” said Citi analysts.

☆ Tighter market to push oil prices above $90 in second half of the year: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Deep Kaushik Vakil | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) U.S. crude was projected to average $83.94 per barrel in 2023, below previous month's $85.40 forecast. Gruenberger expects a 600,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) year-on-year hit to Russian supply from lower domestic intake, weaker demand and slightly lower exports. "China will continue to scoop up Russian product at a discount," said Robert Yawger, energy futures strategist for Mizuho Bank. Reuters GraphicsThe International Energy Agency sees China accounting for almost half of this year's 2 million bpd growth in global oil demand, which could overtake supply after the first half and push producers to reconsider their output policies. Reporting by Deep Vakil in Bengaluru; Editing by Noah Browning and Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Bearish bets on Asian FX return on renewed woes over Fed rate hikes - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Tejaswi Marthi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/4] A Singapore dollar note is seen in this illustration photo May 31, 2017. However, recent comments from the Fed about hiking rates for longer dampened sentiment. They turned bearish on the Thai baht , Asia's best-performing currency this year, the Singapore dollar and the Malaysian ringgit for the first time in three months. The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3. The survey findings are provided below (positions in U.S. dollar versus each currency):Reporting by Tejaswi Marthi in BengaluruOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ These high-dividend stocks are expected to rally, with analysts giving one 60% upside
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

High-yielding stocks are back in the spotlight as volatility persists, inflation remains hot and Treasury yields continue to rise. Canadian firm Pembina Pipeline Corporation , as well as EOG Resources, offered high dividend yields at nearly 7% and almost 6% respectively. Both are also expected to have high earnings growth ahead, with forecasts of 146% for Pembina and 62% for EOG. Analysts also give EOG average potential upside of nearly 32%. Hong Kong-listed shipping logistics firm SITC International Holdings also had a notably high dividend yield of 8.5% and nearly 60% potential upside.

☆ Biden to name Fed's Lael Brainard as top economic adviser - source
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Feb 13 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden is expected to name Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard to the White House's top economic policy position as early as Tuesday, a source familiar with the matter said on Monday. Brainard would replace White House National Economic Council (NEC) Director Brian Deese, who has announced his resignation. In addition Biden confidant Jared Bernstein is expected to replace Cecilia Rouse as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, the source said. The White House declined to comment. "Under normal circumstances I would have thought that her advice to Biden would be very pro stimulus," he said.

☆ Yields are popping again. Here's how investors can take advantage of that, according to the pros
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

How can investors ride on higher yields? Buy high-quality or short-term fixed income BlackRock Investment Institute said it likes high-quality credit and short-end government bonds "as interest rates stay higher for longer." "Fixed income finally offers 'income' after yields surged globally. "We believe that investors should hold around 2% of cash in their portfolios and should use short-term fixed income (anything below a 2-year maturity) as a proxy for cash," Alvarado added. Wells Fargo Investment Institute's tactical portfolios are allocating between 2% (for "aggressive growth investors") and 17% (for conservative income investors) to short-term fixed income.

☆ Biden to name Fed's Lael Brainard as top economic advisor, source says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Lael Brainard, vice chair of the US Federal Reserve, listens to a question during an interview in Washington, DC, US, on Monday, Nov. 14, 2022. U.S. President Joe Biden is expected to name Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard to the White House's top economic policy position as early as Tuesday, a source familiar with the matter said on Monday. Brainard would replace White House National Economic Council (NEC) Director Brian Deese, who has announced his resignation. In addition, Biden confidant Jared Bernstein is expected to replace Cecilia Rouse as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, the source said. "Under normal circumstances I would have thought that her advice to Biden would be very pro stimulus," he said.

☆ Kazuo Ueda nominated to lead Japan's central bank in possible move away from ultra-easy policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Hong Kong CNN —The Japanese government has nominated Kazuo Ueda to lead its central bank, in a surprise move that could pave the way for the country to wind down its ultra-loose monetary policy. Accommodative is a term used to describe monetary policy that adjusts to adverse market conditions and usually involves keeping interest rates low to spur growth and employment. As part of that program, the central bank targeted some short-term interest rates at an ultra-dovish minus 0.1% and aimed for 10-year government bond yields around 0%. But as prices rose and interest rates elsewhere went up, pressure has grown on the BOJ to wind down YCC. But Kuroda later dismissed a near-term exit from his ultra-loose monetary policy.

☆ Bullish bets on Asian FX ease as Fed rate-hike concerns weigh - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Himanshi Akhand | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Long positions on the South Korean won , the Singapore dollar and the Indonesian rupiah eased, while market participants turned bearish on the Indian rupee , according to a fortnightly poll of 10 respondents. The dollar is currently hovering near a one-month high after blockbuster U.S. jobs data last Friday boost expectations that the Fed may continue to hike rates to tame inflation. Investors also scaled back long bets on China's yuan , to a near one-month low, the Malaysian ringgit as well as Asia's best-performing currency this year, the Thai baht . Meanwhile, investors turned slightly bearish on the Indian rupee as concerns over a rout in local equities filtered into money markets. The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3.

☆ US wage growth is slowing and not keeping pace with inflation — but that doesn't mean the Fed will stop hiking rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Growth in US wages and salaries slowed to 1% in the fourth quarter of 2022, down from 1.3% in the previous quarter. As inflation remains high, the Fed may continue hiking interest rates — meaning wage growth could continue to trend slower. Wages and salaries for civilians rose 1% in the fourth quarter from a quarter ago, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said in a Tuesday report. In real terms though, wages and salaries actually declined by 1.2% for the whole of 2022, thanks to high inflation rates. But it doesn't mean the Fed's going to walk away from hiking rates because inflation remains elevated.

☆ Japanese yen tumbles, bonds rally after BOJ keeps policy ultra easy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The bank, however, maintained ultra-low interest rates, including its 0.5% cap for the 10-year bond yield. The dollar also gained 2.5% against the Japanese yen to 131.4 yen, in its biggest percentage daily rise since March 2020. In a Reuters poll, 97% of economists expected the BOJ to maintain its ultra-easy policy at the meeting. A survey of global fund managers by BofA Securities out on Tuesday showed that expectations of further appreciation in the Japanese yen in January were the highest in 16 years. The dollar index , which measures the safe-haven dollar against six peers, rose 0.4% at 102.84.

☆ Bank of Japan keeps yield control policy unchanged
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

MARKET REACTION:The Japanese stock market cheered the BOJ's decision with the Nikkei share average (.N225) jumping more than 2% after the midday break. Therefore, among equities, we think Japanese financials sector will have a rerating of valuations over the next 3-6 months." That could escalate when the new governor of the bank will be announced and towards the policy meeting in March." MOH SIONG SIM, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, BANK OF SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE"The can has been kicked down the road and the attention will shift to the next meeting. CHARU CHANANA, MARKET STRATEGIST, SAXO MARKETS, SINGAPORE:"I think the speculations will still continue.

☆ Asian shares tentative, Japan yields close to policy cap ahead of BOJ meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SummarySummary Companies Asian shares mixed; Nikkei up 0.6%Markets eye change to yield policy from BOJ meeting on WedJapan yields retreat from policy cap; Yen eases from 7-mth highOil extend gains on China optimismSYDNEY, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Asian shares were mixed on Wednesday while Japanese yields hugged a policy cap, with markets anxiously awaiting a pivotal Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting that could see the world's third largest economy shift away from decades of ultra-low interest rates. In early Wednesday trade, however, the 10-year yield fell to 0.485% before returning to 0.5%. China's blue chips (.CSI300) rose 0.2%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HSI) was 0.2% lower. It has been undermined by falling U.S. bond yields as markets wager the Federal Reserve can be less aggressive in hiking rates. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes rose slightly to 3.5402% from its U.S. close of 3.535%, partly in anticipation of the BOJ tweaking its policy.

☆ Asian shares mixed, yen tumbles after BOJ keeps yield policy unchanged
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

read moreThe 10-year yield stayed at 0.5100% on Wednesday. In a Reuters poll, 97% of economists expected the BOJ to maintain its ultra-easy policy at the meeting. Mahjabeen Zaman, head of FX Research at ANZ, now expects any further rises in the Japanese yen might have to be delayed until April when the new BOJ governor assumes position. A survey of global fund managers by BofA Securities out on Tuesday showed that expectations of further appreciation in the Japanese yen in January were the highest in 16 years. After Bank of Japan decision, the dollar strengthened 2.4% to 131.18 yen , pulling away from Monday's seven-month low of 127.21 yen.

☆ Instant View: China's economy slows sharply in Q4, 2022 growth one of the worst on record
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +10 min

As a result, the Chinese economic growth rate will be below the Chinese government's target of 5% plus." This could weigh on their potential economic growth in the mid-and long-term, and we really need to be paying attention to that." MARCO SUN, CHIEF FINANCIAL MARKET ANALYST, MUFG BANK (CHINA), SHANGHAI"China's Q4 and full-year 2022 GDP growth rates came in higher than expected. Economic growth will have to depend more on productivity growth, which is driven by government policies." IRIS PANG, GREATER CHINA ECONOMIST, ING, HONG KONG"The biggest surprise is the retail sales number, which is really a big beat...

Japan's Nikkei (.N225) fell 0.4% and the yen, which surged 2.7% against the dollar overnight, kept going and rose about 0.2% further to 128.65 per dollar. "No change in policy this month would be a setback for the yen," said Rabobank FX strategist Jane Foley. "However, we would look to buy the yen against the dollar on dips on anticipation of another (policy) move ... in the spring." INFLATION IN RETREATBeyond Japan, market sentiment was dominated by overnight U.S. December inflation data that landed more or less on consensus expectations. The U.S. dollar dropped 0.9% to a nine-month low of $1.0868 per euro and the risk-sensitive Australian dollar rose to a roughly five-month high at $0.6984.

☆ Asia shares dip on hawkish Fed remarks; recession risk weighs on commodities, oil
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( Selena Li | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was down 0.17%. "The main theme overnight was cautiousness in the equity space as stocks pared gains after hawkish comments from two Fed officials. read moreChina stocks on Tuesday snapped a six-session winning streak, while Hong Kong shares jumped to a six-month high. However, any optimism may be short-lived, said Trinh Nguyen, emerging Asia economist at Natixis in Hong Kong. "I think what would temper a lot of this optimism coming up is really the reality of this opening up.

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