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☆ What new norm of slower Chinese growth could mean for the global economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Ying Tang | NurPhoto | Getty ImagesThe Chinese economy could be facing a prolonged period of lower growth, a prospect which may have global ramifications after 45 years of rapid expansion and globalization. The ruling Chinese Communist Party has set a growth target of 5% for 2023, lower than usual and notably modest for a country that has averaged 9% annual GDP growth since opening up its economy in 1978. For the global economy, however, the most immediate spillover of a Chinese slowdown will likely come in commodities and the industrial cycle, as China reconfigures its economy to reduce its reliance on a property sector that has been "absorbing and driving commodity prices." "This shift from a complementary economy, where Beijing and Berlin kind of benefit from each other, to now being competitors is another big consequence of the structural slowdown," Green said. He noted that beyond the immediate loss of demand for commodities, China's reaction to its shifting economic sands will also have "second order impacts" for the global economy.

Persons: Ying Tang, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Evans, it's, Xi Jinping's, Rory Green, Green Organizations: Beijing, Communist Party, Capital Economics, Triple, TS Lombard, CNBC Locations: Suzhou, Shanghai, China, Asia, Beijing, Japan, Brazil, Australia, Germany, Berlin

☆ Stocks, bonds, commodities or cash? Citi and others reveal how to allocate right now
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

As the S & P 500 's year-to-date rally nears 20%, some investors have questioned whether stocks could be nearing a tipping point. Here's what Citi, TS Lombard and the Wells Fargo Investment Institute advise. More gains to come for U.S. stocks: Citi Citi in a July 23 note said that while in the early months of 2023, the bull market was "very narrow," it believes markets could recover more broadly soon. The bank added that real yields could reach 4% above inflation over the next five years, "therefore, buying bonds in lieu of cash is advisable." Buying bonds would allow investors to lock in today's bond yields, but real yields would rise if inflation falls.

Persons: VIX, Wells, Lombard Organizations: Federal, Citi, TS Lombard, Wells, Investment Institute, Citi Citi, Citi Research, Wells Fargo Wells Fargo Investment Institute Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo Wells Fargo, Brazil, Mexico, India

☆ Konig: The strength in equities is justified because we're past peak tightening
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailKonig: The strength in equities is justified because we're past peak tighteningSkylar Montgomery Konig, Senior Global Macro Strategist at GlobalData TS Lombard, discusses the markets and the Fed's path forward.

Persons: Konig, Montgomery Konig Organizations: GlobalData, Lombard

U.S. stocks have made big gains this year, but the performance across global stocks has been uneven so far. So where will global stocks go in the second half of the year? Five of the strategists polled expect global markets to fall, while another five say the stocks will beat their U.S. counterparts. Global market bulls Those who expect global stocks to beat the U.S. are most bullish on the U.K., Europe and Japan. Global market bears Andreas Bruckner, European equity strategist at BofA Global Research, predicts that Europe's Stoxx 600 will end the year at 390 — a nearly 15% decline from Monday's close.

Persons: Christian Abuide, Karim Chedid, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Andreas Bruckner, Mark Haefele, Bruckner, Roger Lee, Lee, Haefele, Carrier Organizations: CNBC Pro, U.S, Lombard, iShares, BofA Global Research, UBS Global Wealth, Nasdaq, UBS, RBC Wealth Management Locations: Japan, China, U.S, Europe

Data suggests recession risks remain high, but wages and U.S. and European interest rates are also still rising - so stick or twist? Here are five big calls investors are now making. Principal Global Investors chief global strategist Seema Shah said she maintained her view that government bonds would do well with recession still likely by year-end. Reuters Graphics4/ FRAGILE CHINASpluttering data, property market woes and meek economic stimulus have also busted new year bets of a Chinese mini-boom. Principal Global Investors' Shah said she still expected commodities to continue to struggle "because a combination of U.S. slowdown plus China slowdown should mean weak demand."

Persons: Bonds, Francesco Sandrini, Seema Shah, JP Morgan, Trevor Greetham, Florian Ielpo, Athanasios Vamvakidis, Morgan Stanley, Shah, Naomi Rovnick, Marc Jones, Alun John, Dhara Ranasinghe, Mark Potter Organizations: Treasury, Investors, Reuters, Global Investors, Royal London Asset Management, Lombard, Swiss, Bank of America, Fed, FX, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: bitcoin, Europe's, British, tatters, Japan, CHINA

The bullish view Just four of the 15 strategists expect the S & P 500 to end the year higher than current levels, albeit very slightly. He expects the S & P 500 to end the year at 4,500 — up 2.3% from its current level. Instead, Peng said the S & P 500 's performance will likely broaden over the second half of this year. She expects the S & P 500 to remain flat by the end of the year at 4,300. UBS expects the S & P 500 to end the year at 4,100 — a drop of 7% from current levels.

Persons: Stocks, BlackRock Karim Chedid, Jerome Powell, Karim Chedid, Chedid, Chadha, Charles Schwab Liz Ann Sonders, Ken Peng, Peng, Savita Subramanian, Andreas Bruckner, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Matt Rowe, Mark Haefele, Christian Abuide, Sameer Samana, Rowe, Wouter Sturkenboom, Sturkenboom Organizations: CNBC Pro, Investment, iShares EMEA, BlackRock, Reserve, Deutsche Bank, Citi Global Wealth Investments, Big Tech, Bank of, Equity, Nomura, UBS Global Wealth Management, Federal Reserve, UBS, Lombard, RBC Wealth Management, U.S, Global Market, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment, Nomura Private Capital, EMEA, APAC, Northern Trust, Wells Fargo Investment Institute Locations: U.S, Asia, Europe, Wells Fargo, Northern, Samana

☆ Stock Market Today: Dow Futures Fall; Meta Stock Rises Premarket
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

Government-bond yields rose in the U.S. and Europe, reflecting recent statements by major central banks that they will keep raising interest rates to curtail inflation. Weakening activity in the services sector is a big reason for the pressure on global markets today, said Samy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier. U.S. stock futures fell. Government-bond yields rose. Yields rose in Germany, the U.K. and France, too.

Persons: Samy Chaar, ”, Dow, Hang Seng Organizations: Services, Lombard, Nasdaq, Overseas, Nikkei Locations: Government, U.S, Europe, Shanghai, Germany, France, Brent, Iran

☆ Hybrid working policies are making interns lonelier in the office
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( Sawdah Bhaimiya | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Hybrid working policies mean interns turn up to empty offices and feel more isolated. However, young professionals often want to be in the office to advance their careers and socialize. "[But] there were some days when I was the only member of my team in the office ... Because of this, some companies are implementing new guidance for younger employees to help them integrate into the workforce. This is severely degraded when those top performers (who are most capable of thriving WFH) are working from home.

Persons: —, Martha Storey, Mark Drury, Louise Fitzgerald, Lombard, Jake Wood Organizations: Service, Financial Times, Linklaters, HSBC, KPMG, BNP, Deloitte, New, Junior Locations: London

☆ What next for Wagner? Russia’s Putin battles to regain control after short-lived revolt
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Sam Meredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Members of Wagner group looks from a military vehicle in Rostov-on-Don late on June 24, 2023. It marked what many regard as the greatest challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin's authority in his more than two decades in power. Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with servicemen at the Kremlin in Moscow on June 27, 2023. At best, Granville said the Wagner Group was likely to be "a shadow of its former self" in Ukraine following the revolt. Russia's political crisisRussian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Friday dismissed questions about a political crisis.

Persons: Wagner, Roman Romokhov, Vladimir Putin's, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Vladimir Putin, Mikhail Tereshchenko, nationalize Wagner, Putin, Wagner Group's Prigiozhin, Alexander Lukashenko, that's, Pat Ryder, Faustin, BARBARA DEBOUT, Ryder, It's, Christopher Granville, Granville, Sergey Lavrov, Lavrov, Sergei Surovikin, Surovikin Organizations: AFP, Getty, Wagner Group, Kremlin, Russian Ministry of Defense's, Wagner, Russian Armed Forces, Belarusian, Analysts, CNBC, Pentagon, Central African, TS Lombard, Reuters, Associated Press Locations: Rostov, Ukraine, Moscow, Europe, U.S, Russia, Asipovichy, Belarus, Belarusian, Africa, Syria, BANGUI, Central African Republic, Bangui, France, AFP, Russian

☆ What could break as interest rates rise?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Sweden, where rates rose again on Thursday, is one to watch with most homeowners' mortgages moving in lockstep with rates. Reuters Graphics2/ REAL ESTATE: PART 2Having taken advantage of the low rates era to borrow aplenty and buy up property assets, the commercial real estate sector is grappling with higher debt refinancing costs as rates rise. "The single most important thing is interest rates. But not just interest rates; what it is equally important is the predictability of rates," said Thomas Mundy, EMEA head of capital markets strategy at real estate firm JLL. "If we were settled on an interest rate, real estate prices could adjust.

Persons: Richard Portes, Thomas Mundy, Banks, Florian, Ielpo, Jerome Powell, Markus Allenspach, Julius Baer, Nick Kraemer, Wagner, Vladimir Putin's, Putin, Tina Fordham, Chiara Elisei, Naomi Rovnick, Nell Mackenzie, Karin Strohecker, Vincent Flasseur, Kripa Jayaram, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Dhara Ranasinghe, Alison Williams Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Reuters, Federal, Finance, London Business School, Lombard, Federal Reserve, Casino, Sweden's SBB, Fordham Global Foresight, Thomson Locations: Britain, Norway, Russia, Sweden, lockstep, London's, City, RUSSIA, Ukraine

☆ A.I., rate cuts and Japan's rebound: Asia stocks are looking 'much more promising' than U.S. peers
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The Japanese flag flutters over the Bank of Japan (BoJ) head office building (bottom) in Tokyo on April 27, 2022. At first glance, Asian stocks as a whole have more modest gains so far this year compared with their U.S. and European counterparts. But Asia is more economically diverse than Europe and the U.S., and there are still bright spots in the region, especially in Japan and South Korea. In April, the BOJ announced it will conduct a "a broad-perspective review of [its] monetary policy," which could span 12-18 months. But Lombard Odier still expects the BOJ to end the yield curve control policy before this review is over.

Persons: Kazuhiro Nogi, Nomura, Daniela Gombert, bode, Gombert, Kazuo Ueda, Ueda, Lombard Odier, Morgan Stanley, Google's Bard, Ernie Bot, Lombard, Marco Barresi, Barresi Organizations: Bank of Japan, Afp, Getty, U.S, Asia, Nomura, Nikkei, Bank of, Private, U.S . Federal, Chips, Lombard Odier Locations: Tokyo, Asia, Europe, U.S, Japan, South Korea, India, Southeast Asia, Bank of Japan, Indonesia, A.I, OpenAI, Taiwan, China

☆ Yevgeny Prigozhin's future — what could be next for Russia’s mutinous mercenary chief
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Yulia Morozova | ReutersOnce a close ally and caterer to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Yevgeny Prigozhin now finds himself exiled to Belarus after leading his private mercenary group in an armed mutiny against the Russian military. Despite the apparent amnesty granted in exchange for halting the offensive, Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer told CNBC on Monday that Prigozhin is a "dead man walking." watch nowIn the absence of further details on the deal struck between Prigozhin and the Kremlin, analysts are broadly uncertain as to what the future holds for the Wagner Group and its leader. Atlantic Council CEO Fred Kempe told CNBC's "The Exchange" that this would not be a "one-act play" for either the Russian president or his former friend. Kempe mused, adding that the unknowns at this stage are the most important aspect of Prigozhin's banishment.

Persons: Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Maxim Fomin, Vladlen Tatarsky, Yulia Morozova, caterer, Vladimir Putin, Prigozhin, Alexander Lukashenko, Ian Bremmer, Putin, Fred Kempe, CNBC's, Will Prigozhin, Kempe, Christopher Granville, Granville, Russia Michael McFaul, I'm, who's Organizations: Reuters, Wagner Group, Eurasia Group, CNBC, Kremlin, Atlantic, EMEA, TS Lombard, Former U.S Locations: St Petersburg, Moscow, Russia, Russian, Belarus, Rostov, Prigozhin, Africa, Syria, Ukraine

☆ Koning: Highly volatile economic data is making the current trading environment very difficult
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailKoning: Highly volatile economic data is making the current trading environment very difficultSkylar Montgomery Koning, Senior Global Macro Strategist at TS Lombard, discusses the final trading week of the month.

Persons: Montgomery Koning Organizations: TS Lombard

☆ Smaller-than-expected Turkey rate hike hits lira, bonds
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, June 22 (Reuters) - Turkey's new central bank governor Hafize Gaye Erkan delivered a smaller-than-expected interest rate hike at her first rate meeting on Thursday, sending the lira and the country's dollar-denominated sovereign bonds sharply lower. The bank lifted its key rate 650 basis points to 15% compared to the median of 21% expected in a Reuters poll. "On the other hand they are promising more tightening ahead... so you have to give them the benefit of the doubt." "I am more worried about the medium-term outlook which is likely to see further lira depreciation. TIM ASH, EM SENIOR SOVEREIGN STRATEGIST, BLUEBAY ASSET MANAGEMENT"Ouch - disappointing.

Persons: Hafize Gaye Erkan, PIOTR MATYS, Erkan, Erdogan, PETER KISLER, JON HARRISON, Amruta Khandekar, Ali Kucukgocmen, Marc Jones, Libby George, Karin Strohecker, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Thomson

☆ China eyes support for consumer, private sectors as growth falters
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

China's cabinet is soliciting proposals from economists and advisers, policy insiders told Reuters, with big changes needing approval from top party leaders, and investors now looking to an expected Politburo meeting in July for clues on policy direction. However, the modest borrowing cost cuts - limited by concerns over banks' profitability and currency stability - will not be enough to boost economic activity, policy insiders said. Authorities are also considering support for the ailing property sector after earlier measures failed to gain traction, including easing credit conditions and home buying curbs in some areas, policy insiders. Economists blame the fading recovery on the "scarring effects" caused by COVID and regulatory curbs on property and tech sectors, which have hit household and private sector spending. Supporting depressed private-sector firms, which account for 60% of economic output and 80% of urban employment, will be essential to lift incomes, jobs and consumption, policy insiders and analysts said.

Persons: Rory Green, Jia Kang, Kevin Yao, Sam Holmes Organizations: quicken, Reuters, People's Bank of China's, TS Lombard, China Academy of New, Economics, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China, Beijing

[1/2] Uday Kotak, Managing Director of Kotak Mahindra Bank poses for a picture at the company's corporate office in Mumbai January 15, 2015. Kotak General Insurance, which is fully-owned by Indian banking giant Kotak Mahindra Bank (KTKM.NS), did not respond to Reuters queries. While the Kotak insurance unit's interest in selling a stake has been reported earlier, its talks with Zurich, the potential deal size and valuation are being reported for the first time. More than 30 companies operate in India's general insurance market, where annual premium collections grew 11% to reach $26.7 billion in 2021-22, helped by rising financial literacy and income levels, CareEdge Ratings said in a report. Already, foreign companies such as Germany's Allianz and South Africa's Lombard have general insurance partnerships with Indian banking or financial groups.

Persons: Uday Kotak, Kotak, South Africa's Lombard, Ergo, Sriram, Tom Sims, Victoria Farr, Aditya Kalra, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: Mahindra Bank, REUTERS, Danish, Zurich Insurance, Kotak, Zurich eyeing, Insurance, Asia's, Germany's Allianz, South, Thomson Locations: Mumbai, India, Zurich, MUMBAI, South Africa's, Europe, China, Frankfurt

[1/2] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, June 9, 2023. Wall Street futures were up, pointing to another session of gains after the S&P 500 rose for the fourth week in a row last week. "Obviously if we have a big negative surprise on inflation and inflation comes in much hotter than expected, that is going to challenge central banks and the Fed in its 'pause' strategy," he said. Money markets are pricing in around a 75% chance of the Fed keeping rates steady, and a 25% chance of a 25 basis points rate hike, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The European Central Bank is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points on Thursday.

Persons: Europe's, Samy Chaar, Lombard, Elizabeth Howcroft, Sharon Singleton, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, CPI, Fed, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Wall, Nasdaq, Investors, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, Bank of Japan, People's Bank of China, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, China, U.S, Europe, Hong Kong

☆ Konig: Recent economic data has something for both the bulls and the bears
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailKonig: Recent economic data has something for both the bulls and the bearsSkylar Montgomery Konig, Senior Global Macro Strategist at TS Lombard, discusses the macroeconomy, markets, and investing.

Persons: Konig, Skylar Montgomery Konig Organizations: TS Lombard

☆ The Harvard economics PhD whiz who is teaching generative AI to invest for everyone
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Kiley Lambert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Szilagyi has the record for the fastest-ever Harvard Economics Ph.D. (2.5 years), studying under Ken Rogoff. In addition to his economics Ph.D., Szilagyi holds BA and MA degrees in mathematics and economics from Yale. Szilagyi: Toggle is a generative AI startup that sits squarely at the intersection of finance and artificial intelligence. Toggle AI was really born from observing the ever-mounting flow of financial data that we needed to track. Thanks to his support, Toggle AI took off with a mission to provide every investor and advisor with powerful AI tools in an easy-to-navigate, chat interface.

Persons: Jan Szilagyi, Szilagyi, Stanley Druckenmiller, Lombard Odier, Ken Rogoff, Giuseppe Sette, Druckenmiller Organizations: Duquesne Capital, Lombard, Harvard, Yale, CNBC, Summit, Microsoft, Duquesne Locations: Szilagyi, Lombard

☆ U.S. recession might still happen in mid-2023, says TS Lombard economist
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S. recession might still happen in mid-2023, says TS Lombard economistSteven Blitz, U.S. economist at TS Lombard, discusses the latest developments surrounding the debt ceiling deal.

Persons: Steven Blitz Organizations: U.S, TS Lombard

ET (1900 GMT), to discuss the debt ceiling bill. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell about 10 basis points (bps) to 3.72%, while thirty-year yields fell 8 basis points to 3.90%. "What is currently happening since yesterday shows where the debt ceiling premium was actually priced: mostly in bonds," said Ielpo. The cost of insuring exposure to a U.S. debt default meanwhile fell. "I wouldn’t blame the Treasury rally on the debt ceiling deal necessarily... the additional T-bill issuance, quantitative tightening, and difficult bank funding conditions now conspire to less favourable financing conditions to the economy," said Bouvet.

[1/2] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, May 26, 2023. U.S. President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy reached a tentative deal on Saturday to raise the federal government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, aiming to stop the U.S. from defaulting on its debt. The deal is expected to provide only short-term relief for markets, as worries linger about inflation and further rate increases. European stock indexes initially opened higher, then faltered, with Europe's STOXX 600 down 0.1% on the day (.STOXX). If the debt ceiling deal passes through Congress, then market attention will return to the U.S. Federal Reserve's plans for rates, according to Samy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier.

☆ 3 reasons why even China doesn't want the yuan to replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

The Chinese yuan is one of the top contenders challenging the USD's dominance as a reserve currency. However, Beijing may not be fully supportive of making the yuan the reserve currency of choice. Here's why even China isn't that keen on de-dollarizing the world economy and making the yuan the top reserve currency. So, the US will need to contend with ever larger amounts of deficit, in order to maintain its pre-eminent reserve currency position. Given the issues standing in Beijing's way, it's unlikely for the yuan to take over the greenback's position as the world's reserve currency of choice, said Green.

☆ How the A.I. explosion could save the market and maybe the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-25 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A Nvidia logo is seen on the company's building at an industry park in Tianjin, China, February 7, 2019. A blockbuster profit report Wednesday from Nvidia crystallized an important point for both markets and the economy: For better or worse, artificial intelligence is the future. "AI is real, AI is not a fad and we're only in the early innings," said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. "Does it change the course of the economy over the next three to six months? Does it change the economy over the course of the next three to six years?

Persons: Steve Blitz Organizations: Nvidia, Wall, TS Lombard Locations: Tianjin, China, Silicon Valley

☆ Analysis: Investors see trouble ahead after Europe's stellar first quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Europe's largest listed company LVMH (LVMH.PA) produced stellar sales as China rebounded sharply after COVID restrictions ended. The robust corporate margins on show in the first quarter are seen coming under pressure later in the year. Based on Refinitiv I/B/E/S estimates, STOXX 600 companies are expected to report net profit margins of 11.4% in the first quarter, up from 10.2% in the last quarter of 2022. But margins are seen declining to 10.5% in the third quarter, according to Refinitiv estimates. But there has not been a wave of companies revising earnings forecasts down, providing a cushion for European equities.

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