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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFerguson: We're definitely in a place to cut interest rates and should do soRoger Ferguson, former Fed vice chairman and past president of TIAA, discusses the inflation picture, and what Fed chairman Jay Powell may say when he speaks at the Jackson Hole symposium next week.
Persons: Ferguson, We're, Roger Ferguson, TIAA, Jay Powell
On Thursday, traders get the latest reading on the state of the consumer with retail sales data for July. Hot CPI and inline retail sales (up 0.1% to 0.5%) — JPM believes that a hot CPI print and retail sales matching expectations could fuel "stagflation risks." Expect the S & P 500 to gain and Nasdaq and Russell to perform similarly. Inline CPI and cool retail sales — How much equities move in this outcome depends on the magnitude of the downside surprise in retail sales. In this scenario, traders expect a broadening in the market that includes the S & P 500 gaining.
Persons: Dow Jones, Jerome Powell, Jackson, — JPM, Russell, JPM Organizations: Federal, JPMorgan, CPI, Wall, Federal Reserve, Bank of, Nasdaq, Russell
Yen slips, markets brace for U.S. inflation data
  + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Last week ended calmer, with Thursday's stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data leading markets to pare bets for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. "It's more a case of market squaring up a little bit ahead of the U.S. inflation data," said Christopher Wong, currency strategist at OCBC Bank in Singapore. The dollar was trading at 146.87 yen , up 0.2% from late U.S. levels on Friday. The Aussie was barely up at $0.6577 on Monday, while the New Zealand dollar stayed below last week's three-week high of $0.6035. Implied volatility on the yen, measured in yen options, has also subsided.
Persons: Bank of Japan's hawkishness, Jackson, Christopher Wong, J.P, Morgan Organizations: Bank of Japan's, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, OCBC Bank, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New, Bank, Japan, U.S . Commodity Futures Trading Commission Locations: U.S, Singapore, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Commodity prices have tumbled over the past month, signaling underlying weakness in the global economy despite the U.S. stock market bouncing back from recession fears. But commodity markets may be telling a different story about the global economy. The Invesco DB Base Metals Fund is down more than 7% over the past month, while crude oil futures dropped 14% from July 5 through Aug. 5. @HG.1 YTD mountain Copper futures, YTD Weakness in China, the world's second-largest economy, is weighing on copper and oil in particular, Melek said. OPEC on Monday lowered its global oil demand growth forecast this year by 135,000 barrels per day as expectations in China have softened.
Persons: Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Bart Melek, DBB @HG, We've, Melek, I'm Organizations: U.S, Investors, Invesco DB Base Metals, Wolfe Research, TD Securities, DBB, Metals, Copper, CNBC, Global, Beijing, European Union, World Trade Organization, Federal Reserve, Securities Locations: U.S, China, Beijing, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
Read previewDonald Trump took several trips over the weekend on a private jet once owned by Jeffrey Epstein. That Gulfstream jet also once carried Jeffrey Epstein, who used the tail number N212JE while he owned it, up until his death in 2019. AdvertisementAccording to public flight records, the Gulfstream jet flew on Friday afternoon from Ontario International Airport in Canada to an airport in Bozeman. It's unclear whether Trump or anyone on his campaign knew the plane was once owned by Epstein. Epstein owned at least five different private planes before his death.
Persons: , Donald Trump, Jeffrey Epstein, Jackson, Epstein, Trump hasn't, Mitch Williamson, Trump, didn't, James L, Williamson, Anna Moneymaker, Prince Andrew, Bill Clinton, Kevin Spacey, Naomi Campbell, Marla Maples, Eric, Tiffany Trump Organizations: Service, Gulfstream, Trump, Trump Force, Business, Federal Aviation Administration, JetBlue, International Air Transport Agency, FAA, Boeing, Gulfstream G550, US, Ontario International Airport, Gulfstream GV, Frontier Enterprises, Republican, Federal, Commission, Miami Herald, N550GP, Aviation Group, Aviation, Hawker Siddeley HS, British Aerospace, Daily Mail, Trump Organization, Records Locations: Aspen, Paris, New, Teterboro, WN, Billings , Montana, Bozeman, Canada, Wyoming, Colorado, Ontario, Manhattan, Palm, California, Palm Beach and New York City
Why Jay Powell refuses to be bullied by Wall Street
  + stars: | 2024-08-08 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
The whole episode underscored a fundamental tension between the Fed, which is focused on economic stability, and Wall Street, which is focused on profit. The message from Powell and other policymakers is clear: We won’t be strong-armed by Wall Street. The BOJ’s deputy governor, Shinichi Uchida, citing volatility in financial markets, said the bank would not raise its policy interest rate as long as markets remain unstable. Powell (formerly in finance, hazel eyes, great ties) appears to have a real opportunity to Volcker it up even more in the coming weeks. That gives Wall Street plenty of time to sit in the corner and deal with its feelings.
Persons: CNN Business ’, Summer, Tim Walz’s, Jerome Hayden Powell, Here’s, Powell, , Powell’s, It’s, Paul Volcker fanboy, Shinichi Uchida, Mohamed El, , Volcker, quieting, Powell isn’t Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Finance, Federal, Stock, CNBC, Wall, Bank of Japan, Bloomberg Locations: New York, FiDi, Powell, Japan
Dollar gains after U.S. jobless claims fall more than expected
  + stars: | 2024-08-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Japanese yen banknotes of various denominations are arranged in Kawasaki, Japan, on Friday, June 23, 2023. The dollar rose on Thursday after new U.S. labor market data showed that unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, easing fears of an imminent recession. Initial jobless claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 233,000 for the week ended Aug. 3, the Labor Department said on Thursday, suggesting fears that the labor market is unraveling were overblown. The sharp moves in the yen pushed the dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six others, including the yen, to a weekly high, before backing off. The Australian dollar rose 1.12% to $0.659, while the New Zealand dollar was up 0.25% at $0.601.
Persons: Shinichi Uchida, Eugene Epstein, Uchida, Marc Chandler, Jerome Powell, Vasu Menon, bitcoin, Ether Organizations: Labor Department, Bank of Japan's, Bannockburn Global Forex, U.S . Federal, Swiss, New Zealand Locations: Kawasaki, Japan, North America, Moneycorp, ., Bannockburn
Disappointing economic data recently generated worries that the Fed missed an opportunity at its meeting last week to, if not cut rates outright, send a clearer signal that easing is on the way. In the past, the Fed has implemented just nine such cuts, and all have come amid extreme duress, according to Bank of America. Lacking a catalyst for an intermeeting cut, the Fed is nonetheless expected to cut rates almost as swiftly as it hiked from March 2022-July 2023. Why wait?”LaVorgna, though, isn’t convinced the Fed is in a life-or-death battle against recession. Still, any quakes in the data, such as Friday’s downside surprise to the nonfarm payrolls numbers, could ignite recession talk quickly.
Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Steven Blitz, , Andrew Hollenhorst, , ’ ”, Michael Gapen, Powell, Joseph LaVorgna, , “ They’ll, isn’t, Goldman Sachs, David Rosenberg Organizations: Federal Reserve, TS Lombard, Fed, Citigroup, Bank of America, Nikko Securities, Rosenberg Research Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Nikko
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ended a press conference in which he gave markets exactly what they anticipated he would say. The Fed left rates unchanged, noted that job growth was weaker but still strong and hinted it was slowly winning the war on inflation. Powell, in his press conference, said "the labor market has come into better balance, and the unemployment rate remains low. If there was any doubt he was feeling better about inflation, Powell later said, "we have growing confidence that we are on a sustainable path to two percent," the Fed's long-term target for inflation. The consensus as we entered July was that inflation was still a very real danger and that the Fed may keep rates higher.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, What's, Jackson Organizations: Fed, Jackson, Investors
Dollar, yen hold tight ranges ahead of BOJ, Fed
  + stars: | 2024-07-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar and yen kept within close ranges on Tuesday as traders awaited a barrage of key central bank decisions, kicking off with midweek monetary policy meetings from the Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve. The dollar and yen kept within close ranges on Tuesday as traders awaited a barrage of key central bank decisions, kicking off with midweek monetary policy meetings from the Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve. The Japanese currency was taking a breather from its recent rally as the BOJ began its two-day meeting on Tuesday, having surged over 2% against the dollar last week. The Fed is widely expected to stand pat this week, but markets are betting the U.S. central bank will begin cutting rates at the following meeting in September. Investors will be listening for any hints that Fed Chair Jerome Powell may drop on how soon policymakers are prepared to cut rates at his press conference.
Persons: Matt Simpson, Jerome Powell, Powell, Jackson, Index's Simpson, Sterling, bitcoin Organizations: Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, Index, Fed, Treasury, Bank of England's Locations: U.S
Market pricing currently indicates an absolute certainty that the Fed will approve its first reduction in more than four years — when it meets Sept. 17-18. They don't want investors to start pricing in a rate cut coming in September and there's literally nothing else that could possibly happen," he said. "Opening the door for that rate cut is probably the most appropriate thing for them at this point," Reynolds added. Expectations for easingGlenmede expects that starting in September, the Fed could cut at each of the three remaining meetings. The Fed will not provide an update on its quarterly summary of economic projections at this meeting.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Chris Kleponis, they've, Michael Reynolds, Reynolds, there's, it'll, Powell, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Mericle, Bill English, We've Organizations: Banking, Housing, Urban, Capitol, AFP, Getty, Glenmede, Fed Locations: Washington ,, Yale, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
Improving news on inflation again has raised investors' hopes that the Federal Reserve soon will start to aggressively lower interest rates. Futures market pricing now indicates that while the Fed will remain on hold at next week's policy meeting, it will commence cutting in September and move again in November and December. The market-implied probability for a September cut nudged up to about 90% Friday morning, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool that measures fed funds futures pricing. Traders in early 2024 were pricing in at least six cuts this year, but the central bank's rate-setting group has remained on hold for a year. Following the two-day meeting that concludes next Wednesday, the Fed meeting schedule is empty for August, save for the all-important annual conclave in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Persons: Joseph Brusuelas, , Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller Organizations: Federal Reserve, Friday's Commerce Department, RSM, Traders, Federal Open, Fed Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming
But the more we compared the European college experience to that of the US, the more we were drawn to Europe. Going to college in Europe, however, would allow him to meet people of different backgrounds. After taking a gap year in 2021, Gavin decided to pursue a degree in Culinary Entrepreneurship at Technological University Dublin in Ireland. AdvertisementAs a Wyoming resident, Gavin would have paid $5,190 for tuition at the University of Wyoming, excluding other costs. However, he considered the University of New Hampshire, where tuition costs $36,170 yearly for out-of-state students, excluding housing and other fees.
Persons: , Jackie Baxa, Gavin, Baxa, Kaden, he's, we've, It's, He's, We've, Erin, eliam@businessinsider.com Organizations: Service, Business, Entrepreneurship, Technological University, European Union, Technological University of Dublin, Housing, University of Wyoming, University of New Locations: Spain, Seville, Europe, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Technological University Dublin, Ireland, Dublin, Milan, Amsterdam, Wyoming, University of New Hampshire
Why the Fed is stressed about presidential elections
  + stars: | 2024-07-10 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +9 min
New York CNN —Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sent investors mixed messages on Tuesday during his semiannual testimony to Congress. Powell is stressed about the election: Powell was asked by multiple senators about White House politics, which he dodged. While the Fed head noted that policy decisions are data dependent, “elevated inflation is not the only risk we face,” he said. The September Fed meeting will be “live”: Powell noted multiple times that every Fed policy decision is made “live” using the latest available economic data – in other words, decisions aren’t made in advance. About 75% of investors think the Fed will cut rates, and about 25% think they’ll remain the same.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, , Donald Trump, reappoint Powell, , Joseph Brusuelas, Trump, Gregory Daco, Chris Larkin, Morgan Stanley, Larkin, don’t, aren’t, David Rubenstein, he’ll, Airbnb, Isabelle Chapman, Majlie, Puy Kamp, Audrey Ash, Chris Isidore . Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN — Federal, White, , Reserve, RSM, Federal Reserve, US Consumer, Treasury, Fed, Economics, Washington DC, Jackson, CNN, Boeing, Alaska Airlines Locations: New York, Powell, Washington, Alaska
While the regional wildlife coordinator for Wyoming Game and Fish supported the proposal, Ricketts' neighbors were another story, the Nebraska Examiner said. That's what I kind of equate it to," one local told The Daily Beast about Ricketts at the time. "That's just not something that's ever going to be well received, whether it was Mr. Ricketts or the next billionaire with a big dream and a big plan." And in the end, Ricketts is getting his big dream and big plan — just not when he wants it. According to estimates at the town meeting, the hotel will now take six years to build rather than three.
Persons: , Joshua Coursey, Joe Ricketts —, Donald Trump, Ricketts, Forbes, Jackson, " Ricketts, Little Jackson, He's, Fish, Foundation's Coursey, Matthew Prince, Prince, Bill Gross, Dale Chihuly, Gross, Vinod Khosla, Coursey, That's Organizations: Service, Business, Foundation, Chicago Cubs, Wyoming, Nebraska Examiner, City, Daily Locations: Bondurant, Wyoming, Paramount's, Sublette County , Wyoming, Teton County, Los Angeles and New York, Northwest Wyoming, Sublette, Laguna Beach , California
Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari on Sunday said it's a "reasonable prediction" that the U.S. central bank will cut interest rates once this year, waiting until December to do it. It also published projections that showed the median forecast from all 19 U.S. central bankers was for a single interest rate cut this year. Kashkari, who has been more cautious about the possibility of easing monetary policy than many of his colleagues, did not say how many rate cuts he personally expects. Inflation by the Fed's targeted measure, the year-over-year change in the personal consumption expenditures price index, registered 2.7% in April. "If we simply cut interest rates to try to support home ownership right now, that would probably push up the price of houses, and it actually wouldn't lead to any better affordability," he said.
Persons: Neel Kashkari, it's, Kashkari Organizations: Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Kansas City Fed, Minneapolis Federal, CBS, Fed Locations: Jackson, Wyoming, Minneapolis, U.S
A landslide in the Teton mountains destroyed part of a highway that links Idaho to Jackson, Wyo., forcing the authorities to close the road indefinitely on Saturday just as the area was entering its summer tourism season. No one was injured when a section of the Teton Pass “catastrophically failed,” the Wyoming Department of Transportation said in a statement on Saturday. The highway west of Jackson had been closed to traffic before the road gave way, and crews were working to build a detour around a section where a crack had appeared in the surface days earlier. The department said it expected a long-term closure. Travel and tourism is Wyoming’s second-largest industry, according to the Jackson Hole Travel and Tourism Board, and the county took in about $1.7 billion in travel-related spending in 2022.
Persons: Jackson, Mark Gordon of Wyoming Organizations: Wyoming Department of Transportation, Gov, Teton County ., Jackson, Travel, Tourism Board Locations: Idaho, Jackson, Teton County
I've visited all 50 states, and a few US airports stand out to me as being really cool. Nashville International Airport has some great dining options and live music. Some international airports are awesome because of their amenities and features, like Singapore Changi Airport with its massive indoor waterfall and movie theater. But what makes so many US airports cool is that they have unique amenities and local flavor. As a travel writer who has visited all 50 states, I've compiled a list of what I think are the coolest airports in the US.
Persons: I've, Organizations: Service, Singapore Changi Airport Locations: Long, Nashville, Singapore
Dollar calm as traders await clues on U.S. rate path
  + stars: | 2024-05-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
In this photo illustration, a person seen holding a 100 US dollar bill in his hand. The dollar was broadly steady on Monday as investors awaited further clues to help chart the U.S. interest rate path in the wake of cautious comments from Federal Reserve officials, even as inflation shows signs of cooling. The Japanese yen was flat at 155.74 per dollar, with traders on alert for any signs of government intervention. That has prompted traders to trim the amount of easing expected this year to about 46 bps, with only a rate cut in November fully priced in. In other currencies, sterling touched a two-month high of $1.2711 ahead of the crucial UK inflation report due on Wednesday.
Persons: Brian Jacobsen, Powell, Jackson, Flash PMIs, Paul Mackel, BoE, Charu Chanana Organizations: Federal Reserve, Annex Wealth Management, ANZ, European Central Bank, Bank of England, HSBC, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New, Saxo Locations: Tokyo, Germany, U.S, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Éric Béteille said his AirTag has been stuck in the cargo space of an Alaska Airlines plane. In a Facebook post, Éric Béteille said his AirTag fell out of his luggage tag on an Alaska Airlines flight last July — and is now stuck in the plane's cargo space. One of Éric Béteille's Facebook posts. FacebookBéteille — whose LinkedIn profile says he is a principal content designer at Meta — has racked up over 20,000 likes across his two Facebook posts about the lost AirTag. AdvertisementBéteille's AirTag won't be going transatlantic, especially given that Alaska Airlines only flies to North America, but it's still an interesting insight into the carrier's operations — and the frequency of one jet's flights.
Persons: Éric Béteille, he's, , Jackson, Béteille, Meta —, it's Organizations: Alaska Airlines, Embraer, Service, Facebook, Meta, American Airlines Locations: Canada, Austin, Vancouver, Missoula , Montana, , Wyoming, Tucson , Arizona, North America
I always knew I wanted to elope, but had a traditional ceremony in my first marriage. From my experience, I became a champion of eloping and doing what you want — and had an elopement wedding of my own years later. He wanted a more practical approach to the wedding, where our friends and family could be there. In a traditional wedding, everything is on a timeline, and the couple rarely has time to be alone. Sometimes, family members can make you feel guilty for choosing an elopement over a traditional ceremony and reception.
Persons: I've, , Bree Reinhart, eloping, Carrie Ann, I'd, isn't Organizations: Service, He's, Catholic Church Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Texas
He prefers getting to know founders long before they decide to raise money so he can pounce on the right opportunity. Investors, including hedge funds, hurtled term sheets at founders to beat the competition, skipping the usual diligence along the way. Flush with cash, the partners are seeing a flood of hyper-growth startups come to market for funding after a two-year dry spell. The funding blockage is also softening as valuations come back to earth, Costolo said. "Prices are a lot more sensible now," Costolo said, noting the exception of valuations in artificial intelligence.
Persons: Dick Costolo, Costolo, Costolo isn't, Adam Bain, Twitter's, Dario Amodei, Kimberly White, Getty Costolo, they're, Bain, David Fischer Organizations: Twitter, Business, Advisors, Software, Carta, TechCrunch, Google, Nvidia, Fund, Health Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Detroit
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference following the release of the Fed's interest rate policy decision at the Federal Reserve in Washington, U.S., January 31, 2024. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell vowed in an interview aired Sunday that the central bank will proceed carefully with interest rate cuts this year and likely will move at a considerably slower pace than the market expects. "We want to see more evidence that inflation is moving sustainably down to 2%," Powell added. We just want some more confidence before we take that very important step of beginning to cut interest rates." Powell was broadly optimistic about the economy, noting that inflation, while still above the Fed's target, has moderated while the jobs market is strong.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, wouldn't, Scott Pelley, payrolls, hasn't, haven't Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, CBS, Labor Department Locations: Washington , U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
Euro zone inflation tumbled to 2.4% last month from above 10% a year earlier after a record string of rate hikes. Schnabel, who had insisted just a month ago that rate hikes must remain an option because the "last mile" of the inflation fight may be the toughest, said she had shifted stance after three unexpectedly benign inflation readings in a row. "The most recent inflation number has made a further rate increase rather unlikely." "The recent inflation print has given me more confidence that we will be able to come back to 2% no later than 2025." Schnabel said weak growth as a result of the ECB's rate hikes is helping the inflation fight but that a deep or prolonged recession is unlikely, with recent survey data supporting expectations for a recovery.
Persons: Isabel Schnabel, Jim Urquhart, Schnabel, John Maynard Keynes, Christine Lagarde, Francois Villeroy de, Yannis Stournaras, Joachim Nagel, Balazs Koranyi, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, Teton, Jackson, REUTERS, Rights, ECB, Reuters, Bank of Greece, Thomson Locations: Jackson , Wyoming, U.S, French, Francois Villeroy de Galhau
Unemployment has ticked up, wage growth continues to decline, and the "quits rate" has leveled off from its pandemic surge. The CFO view of the labor market also filters through to their broader view of the economy and markets, which has changed in other considerable ways over the four quarters of surveying by CNBC this year. Almost a year later, the market has rallied on the conviction that inflation has been vanquished and the hikes are finished. But the CFO view of when inflation returns to 2% keeps getting pushed farther out into the future. That's more hawkish than the market, which currently is betting the Fed may start cutting by May.
Persons: CFOs, that's, it's, Jackson Organizations: CNBC, Stone, Nasdaq, PPI, Inflation, Walmart, Dow Jones, Dow, Fed Locations: Detroit, Hollywood, CFOs, it's
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