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[1/2] U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 196,000 for the week ended Feb. 4, data showed. In late morning trading, the dollar index fell 0.7% to 102.74 . The euro , the biggest component in the dollar index, climbed 0.6% to $1.078, while sterling rose 0.9% to $1.2179 , with both boosted by improving risk sentiment across markets. The dollar fell 0.4% against the Japanese yen to 130.92 .

Investors will be looking for Powell's take on the labor market in a speech at the Economic Club of Washington due later in the day, after a sharp rise in jobs growth last week punctured hopes for a tempered Fed. "We expect Chair Powell to emphasize stubbornness in underlying inflation pressures while highlighting the labor market’s strength and capacity to withstand higher rates." U.S. interest-rate futures show that markets are expecting the Fed funds rate to peak just above 5.1% by June, compared with expectations of a peak below 5% prior to Friday's jobs report. "The Fed still has some progress to make, there are signs of positivity in terms of the disinflationary pressures that are in the pipeline, but there is still a labor market problem." Sterling was last 0.4% down against the dollar at $1.1982, after tumbling to a one-month low of $1.1974 in the previous session.

☆ Morgan Stanley sees another 25-bps Fed hike in March after strong jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The U.S. investment bank previously called for a pause in the rate-hiking cycle in March after the Fed increased the policy benchmark rate by 25 bps on Wednesday. The current benchmark rate stands in a range of 4.50% to 4.75%Friday's robust payrolls number has changed that forecast, Morgan Stanley said. Data showed that non-farm payrolls surged by 517,000 jobs last month, the most in six months. Morgan Stanley also raised the peak fed funds rate to 4.875% from a previous estimate of 4.75%. The Fed has projected it will raise its key policy rate to between 5% and 5.25% and keep it there at least until the end of the year.

☆ Bond investors brace for recession as Fed expected to slow pace of tightening
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The rally comes after Treasuries notched the worst year in their history following the Fed's most aggressive monetary policy tightening since the 1980s. Some equity investors are nevertheless playing it safe, expecting the current rally in stocks to wilt if a recession hits. For now, many investors are wedded to a more dovish view, betting that policymakers will blink if growth starts to slow. "The Fed is closer to the end than the beginning, and rates usually fall across the curve when the Fed is finished raising rates." Of course, some investors are happy to take the central bank at its word and are betting rates stay higher for longer.

☆ U.S. dollar advances vs major currencies as risk appetite fades
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The earlier sell-off in the dollar came after the Bank of Japan maintained ultra-low interest rates. In afternoon trading, the U.S. currency rose against the commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian, New Zealand, and Canadian dollars, which sensitive to risk appetite. The Australian dollar fell 0.7% to US$0.6936, after hitting its highest since August last year. In Japan, the BOJ kept intact its yield curve control (YCC) targets, set at -0.1% for short-term interest rates and around 0% for the 10-year yield, by a unanimous vote. The dollar rose as much as 2.7% to 131.58 yen before gains were pared.

☆ Treasury yields, dollar fall after U.S. data; yen flat in wake of BOJ
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] A trader works on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., January 5, 2023. The drop in U.S. retail sales, together with subsiding inflation, could encourage the Federal Reserve to further scale back the pace of its interest rate increases next month. The decision caused the yen to fall, with investors unwinding bets based on expectations the central bank would overhaul its yield control policy. But in late-morning U.S. trading, the dollar was little changed against the yen . "The PPI and retail sales numbers show that there are disinflationary pressures going on," said Juan Perez, director of trading at Monex USA in Washington.

☆ HSBC expects Fed's final rate hike on Feb. 1, cuts next year
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The bank also expects about 50 basis points in rate cuts from the U.S. central bank next year. The peak fed funds rate is seen hitting just under 5% at the June policy meeting. The Fed last year raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 425 basis points from the near-zero level to the current 4.25%-4.50% range, the highest since late 2007. Last month, it projected at least an additional 75 basis points of increases in borrowing costs by the end of this year. In the research report, HSBC also said it anticipates the European Central Bank will deliver 50-basis-point rate increases in February and March, taking the deposit rate to 3% where it is expected to stay for the foreseeable future.

☆ U.S. dollar weakens as risk appetite rises with data showing slowdown
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.1% last month after climbing 0.4% in October. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE index gained 0.2% after increasing 0.3% in October. The so-called core PCE price index rose 4.7% on a year-on-year basis in November after increasing 5.0% in October. The Canadian dollar also benefited from data showing that the Canadian economy grew by 0.1% in October versus September, with another 0.1% increase in GDP seen likely in November, Statistics Canada data showed. Against the yen, however, the dollar rose 0.4% to 132.82 yen .

☆ U.S. dollar likely has further upside vs yen despite BOJ move -Goldman
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

On Tuesday, the dollar plunged as much as 4% against the yen, its largest daily percentage fall since 1998. The U.S. currency, however, rebounded on Wednesday, and was last up 0.4% at 132.28 yen. Goldman assumed that, for now, the BOJ move was a technical adjustment and a "sign that policy rates could be adjusted further in coming month", although the basic BOJ framework remained unchanged. This should drive dollar/yen higher over the coming months, Goldman noted. For now, however, Goldman is closing its long dollar/yen position as the market is likely to price in a more meaningful BOJ policy change, which the U.S. investment bank said is a real possibility.

The Bank of England also raised its key interest rate by a further half-percentage point on Thursday and indicated more hikes were likely. "Both the Fed and ECB delivering more hawkish rate steers are compounding recession fears," said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Convera in Washington. Powell was also particularly hawkish in his comments, noting that ongoing rate hikes are appropriate to get sufficiently restrictive. In afternoon trading, the dollar rose to two-week highs against the yen, and last traded up 1.6% at 137.665 . Sterling also fell sharply as investors believe the BOE is nearing the end of its rate hikes.

☆ Stocks regain some lost ground as investors interpret U.S. payrolls data
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Sinéad Carew | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The U.S. Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by 263,000 jobs last month compared with economist expectations for 200,000 jobs. "That sentiment shift has been more powerful than any 'negativity' to be taken from today's jobs report," he said. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.15% on the day but added 1.5% for the week. Earlier it had jumped sharply in response to the jobs data, gaining as much as 0.82%. Gold prices also regained some lost ground from their earlier reaction to the jobs data.

[1/4] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 21, 2022. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) closed down 0.13% while MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.09%. "It's going to be a busy second half of the week with all the data points we're expecting. Oil prices climbed on hopes for a relaxation of China's strict COVID-19 controls, which had fueled demand concerns. Gold prices rose with help from the dollar's retreat and hopes for less aggressive U.S. rate hikes going forward.

☆ Investors flock to short crypto funds, products as negative sentiment deepens -CoinShares
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Crypto products and funds saw inflows of $44 million, as of the week ended Nov. 18, but 75% of those flows represented investments in short crypto products, data showed. The total assets under management have plunged to $22 billion, the lowest in two years, CoinShares said. FTX filed for bankruptcy protection in the United States more than a week ago in the highest-profile crypto implosion to date. CoinShares data also showed that bitcoin posted inflows of $14 million, but when offset by inflows into short investment products, the net flows were a negative $4.3 million. Investors poured in record inflows to short-Ethereum products of $14 million.

☆ U.S. dollar net positioning turns net short for 1st time since July 2021 -CFTC, Reuters data
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

NEW YORK, Nov 18 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar's net positioning turned net short in the latest week for the first time since mid-July 2021, according to calculations by Reuters and U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday. The value of the net short dollar position amounted to $10.5 million in the week ended Nov. 15, from net longs of $2.36 billion in the previous week. Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by Leslie AdlerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ UPDATE Foreign holdings of Treasuries drop to lowest since May 2021 -data
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Offshore holdings dropped to $7.296 trillion, from $7.509 trillion in August. Foreign holdings in May last year were at $7.144 trillion. Japan's stash of Treasuries dropped to $1.120 trillion in September, from $1.199 trillion the previous month. Japan spent up to a record 2.8 trillion yen ($19.7 billion) intervening in the foreign exchange market in September to prop up the yen. In June, China's holdings slid to $967.8 billion, the lowest since May 2010 when it had $843.7 billion.

Crypto markets have come under intense pressure this year, as rising interest rates prompt investors to ditch risky or speculative assets. In the case of FTX, U.S. residents can't trade on its global platform due to strict regulations for the crypto space in the United States. Ken Lo, co-founder at Hong Kong-based crypto exchange and custodian Hong Kong Digital Asset Exchange, said counterparty risk, which comes from a lack of transparency and information disclosure, underscores the need for "clear regulatory framework and vision statement." In an interview with Reuters in July, Bankman-Fried said his company still had a "few billion" on hand to shore up struggling firms that could further destabilize the digital asset industry. Max Boonen, co-founder of digital asset liquidity provider B2C2, said FTX's problems have set the crypto space back by six months.

☆ Insana: The manic speculation behind the fall of FTX is as old as the markets themselves
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Ron Insana | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Sam Bankman-Fried, co-founder and chief executive officer of FTX, in Hong Kong, China, on Tuesday, May 11, 2021. Lam Yik | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesWith a nod to Gertrude Stein, "there's no there there," in the world of cryptocurrencies. Whether it's manias in Sumerian grain markets, Dutch tulip bulbs, railroad bonds and everything from internet service providers to digital currencies, leveraged speculation is as old as markets themselves. Digital assets that don't exist in reality have been used as collateral to buy and sell other non-existent assets with a heavy dose of borrowed money. This creates a daisy chain of interlocked digital tokens that have no inherent value except what people are willing to ascribe.

☆ Analysis: Nagging U.S. Treasury liquidity problems raise Fed balance sheet predicament
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The Fed's balance sheet though remains at a lofty $8.7 trillion, down modestly from a peak of nearly $9 trillion. Fed' balance sheetHowever, there are underlying liquidity and volatility problems in U.S. Treasuries amid the Fed's aggressive rate hike cycle. While the Fed is determined to reduce its balance sheet, if the problems facing investors get out of control, some analysts said the Fed may just halt or suspend it. UBS economists said last month the Fed's balance sheet runoff will face several complications through 2023, prompting the Fed to sharply slow or fully stop balance sheet reduction sometime around June 2023. BCA's Swift said while the Treasury market has grown dramatically since 2008, dealer intermediation, has remained low, noting that regulations made it less appealing for dealers to undertake such activity in the Treasury market.

☆ U.S. yields advance as markets gird for midterm elections
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, Nov 7 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields rose in choppy trading on Monday after a week of high volatility, as bond investors turned their focus to the U.S. midterm elections on Tuesday that will determine control of Congress. U.S. two-year yields, which are sensitive to rate expectations, rose 7 basis points to 4.216% . The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 4.3 basis points at 4.201%. U.S. 30-year Treasury yields were up 4.2 basis points at 4.289%. A closely-watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes remained inverted at -52.1 basis points.

☆ Dollar drops as U.S. nonfarm payrolls show mixed results
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased 261,000 last month, data showed on Friday. However, the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from September's 3.5%. The odds of a 75-basis-point rise went as high as 64% immediately after the payrolls data. Despite the strong jobs data, Fed officials on Friday said a smaller rate increase is still on the table for the December policy meeting. read moreThe dollar fell 1.1% against the yen to 146.65 yen , posting losses for a third straight week.

☆ Dollar tumbles as U.S. nonfarm payrolls show mixed picture
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased 261,000 last month, data showed on Friday. Data for September was revised higher to show 315,000 jobs added instead of 263,000 as previously reported. However, the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from September's 3.5%. Despite the strong jobs data, Fed officials on Friday said a smaller rate increase is still on the table for the December policy meeting. read moreThe dollar fell 0.8% against the yen to 147.06 yen , while the euro rose 1.7% to $0.9920 .

☆ Dollar sinks as U.S. nonfarm payrolls show mixed picture
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Nonfarm payrolls increased 261,000 last month, data showed on Friday. Data for September was revised higher to show 315,000 jobs added instead of 263,000 as previously reported. However, the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from September's 3.5%. "However, the devil is in (the) detail(s) and that is the unemployment rate has ticked higher and this may keep a lid on the dollar rally. The Fed's terminal rate, or the level at which rates peak slipped to 5.16% after payrolls, from about 5.2% just before.

☆ Stocks mixed, yields ease; investors weigh chance of rate hike slowdown
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 17, 2022. Still, investors were also digesting Tuesday's data showing U.S. job openings unexpectedly rose in September, suggesting that demand for labor remains strong despite the Fed's recent rate hikes. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.50% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.07%. In the currency market, the dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, was last little changed. U.S. crude recently rose 2.09% to $88.34 per barrel and Brent was at $94.59, up 1.92% on the day.

☆ U.S. dollar rises as Fed likely doing another big hike; sterling sinks
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. In afternoon trading, the dollar rose 0.8% against the struggling yen to 148.62 yen . For the month of October, the dollar was up 2.7%, on track to post its third monthly gain versus the Japanese currency. Generally, the dollar is somewhere in the bend - trying to establish a high, but has not generally done so. The greenback, however, was on pace for a monthly decline of 0.5% in October, based on the dollar index.

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