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☆ Our base is U.S. will go into a recession by middle of 2024: Societe Generale's Subadra Rajappa
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOur base is U.S. will go into a recession by middle of 2024: Societe Generale's Subadra RajappaSubadra Rajappa, Societe Generale head of U.S. rates strategy, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss latest Treasury yield trajectory, the impact of higher rates on markets, where yields are headed, and more.

Organizations: Societe Generale Locations: U.S

The headquarters of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) are seen in Washington, July 6, 2009. One said some firms could pay as much as $50 million. The SEC has previously negotiated two other large group settlements as part of its "off-channel" communications probe. In August, regulators fined nine Wall Street firms, including Wells Fargo (WFC.N) and Societe Generale (SOGN.PA), a combined $549 million over employees' use of personal messaging apps. In September 2022, it fined 16 firms, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Bank of America, $1.8 billion for similar lapses.

Persons: Jim Bourg, Spokespeople, Oppenheimer, Voya, Wells, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Chris Prentice, Carolina, Michelle Price, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, REUTERS, Reuters, Truist Financial Corp, US Bancorp, Voya Financial, LPL, Interactive, Oppenheimer, Fifth Third Bancorp, Fifth, Truist, Wall Street, Societe Generale, Citigroup, Bank of America, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: Washington

☆ Larger Italian banks still seen paying one-off tax despite opt-out offer
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( Valentina Za | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The government sparked a market rout last month with the surprise announcement of a 40% tax on the profits banks are reaping from rising interest rates. The option would benefit banks that hold a higher proportion of Italian government bonds among their assets relative to loans. Banca Akros and broker Equita also expect most banks to pay the tax. Equita also said paying the levy would allow lenders to maintain more flexibility over their remuneration policy. Switching the tax basis to risk-weighted assets helps banks which have a lower 'risk density', meaning the average risk weight per unit of exposure.

Persons: Jennifer Lorenzini, Equita, Akros, Siena, Valentina Za, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, Generale, Banca Akros, ICCREA, Bank, Banca Generali, Thomson Locations: Monte dei, Siena, Italy, Italy's

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Fed-wary investors eye mounting risks to US stock rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500 (.SPX) tumbled 2.9% this week, its biggest weekly decline since March. High Treasury yields dull the allure of stocks by offering investors an attractive payout on an investment seen as virtually risk free. The S&P 500 entered what has historically been its weakest 10-day stretch of the year on Sept. 18, according to BofA Global Research. Meanwhile, a drawn out government shutdown could aggravate concerns over U.S. government gridlock and send Treasury yields even higher. He noted that the S&P 500 remains above its 200-day moving average and there have been few signs of investors fleeing to safety.

Persons: Charlie Ripley, Brian Jacobsen, “, ”, Fitch, Keith Lerner, Adam Turnquist, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Investors, BoFA, Allianz Investment Management, Treasury, Annex Wealth Management, BofA Global Research, Societe Generale, LPL Financial, Thomson

The European Central Bank last week lifted rates to a record 4% and upgraded its inflation forecast for 2024, but the euro fell and has lost almost 2% against the dollar this month. Overall, Europe's central banks "would like to portray this idea of higher for longer (rates)," said Ed Hutchings, head of rates at Aviva Investors. The currency, which the central bank labeled "unjustifiably weak," barely caught a break and remains near a record low against the euro . He expected one the of big European central banks to be the first to cut rates. European central banks were "in a bind," Fiotakis added, as higher oil prices also threatened to push inflation higher.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Sterling, Kit Juckes, BoE, SocGen's Juckes, Ed Hutchings, Nathan Thooft, Bjoern, Fiotakis, Orla Garvey, Naomi Rovnick, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, Sterling, LONDON, Bank of, Swiss, greenback, Societe Generale, European Central Bank, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, Fed, Aviva Investors, Investment Management, Reuters, DWS Group, Nomura, ING, Barclays, Federated, Thomson Locations: Swiss, Bank of England, Switzerland, Sweden, Europe, U.S, Western Europe, United States, Britain, Swedish, Japan, European

☆ Baby boomers are big winners from the Fed's policies - but younger generations are 'screwed,' market veteran says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Baby boomers are the big winners from the Federal Reserve's policies, Larry McDonald said. Years of low interest rates boosted asset prices, and now they can earn 5% from Treasury bills. AdvertisementAdvertisementMcDonald's X post made the point that higher rates have lifted yields on Treasury bills to more than 5%. As a result, baby boomers have the option to cash out their profits, invest in short-term government debt, and collect a solid, guaranteed return. While baby boomers are under fire for hoarding wealth, their spending in retirement could prove crucial in sustaining the economy and preventing a recession, market veteran Ed Yardeni argued this summer.

Persons: Larry McDonald, McDonald, Lehman, He's, boomers, Baby, That's, Ed Yardeni Organizations: Service, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, millennials, Ukraine

☆ Inflation will return to the Fed's 2% target by next year, says Moody's Analytics' Mark Zandi
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation will return to the Fed's 2% target by next year, says Moody's Analytics' Mark ZandiJamie Cox, Harris Financial Group managing partner, Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale, and Mark Zandi, Moody's Analytics chief economist, join 'The Exchange' to discuss signals that indicate the Fed could be done with rate hikes this year, cues in the dot plot about the Fed's 2024 agenda, and fears of a potential government shutdown.

Persons: Zandi Jamie Cox, Subadra Rajappa, Mark Zandi Organizations: Harris Financial Group, Societe Generale

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Jamie Cox, Subadra Rajappa, and Mark Zandi
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Jamie Cox, Subadra Rajappa, and Mark ZandiJamie Cox, Harris Financial Group managing partner, Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale, and Mark Zandi, Moody's Analytics chief economist, join 'The Exchange' to discuss signals that indicate the Fed could be done with rate hikes this year, cues in the dot plot about the Fed's 2024 agenda, and fears of a potential government shutdown.

Persons: Jamie Cox, Subadra Rajappa, Mark Zandi Jamie Cox, Mark Zandi Organizations: Harris Financial Group, Societe Generale

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.399% overnight in Asia, its highest rate since early November 2007, and the two-year yield rose further above 5%. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.27%, while the pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) lost 1.05%, hit by lowered growth outlooks. CENTRAL BANKSGlobal central banks take stage, with five of those overseeing the 10 most-heavily traded currencies holding rate-setting meetings this week. A swathe of emerging market central banks including Turkey and South Africa will also meet. The Swedish crown sank to a record low against the euro on Monday, days before the Riksbank is expected to raise interest rates again.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, BOE, Brent, Marc Chandler, Chandler, Saira Malik, France's, Stocks, Xi, Kazuo Ueda, Herbert Lash, Nell Mackenzie, Dhara, Stella Qiu, Philippa Fletcher, Alexander Smith, Christina Fincher Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Global, Federal, United Auto Workers, Detroit Three, Bannockburn Global, U.S, Societe Generale, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, China Evergrande, HK, CENTRAL, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, Bannockburn, New York, Asia, Turkey, South Africa, Swedish, London, Sydney

China property woes, geopolitical tensions and ongoing strikes also stoked worries about global growth. CENTRAL BANKSGlobal central banks take centre stage, with five of those overseeing the 10 most heavily traded currencies holding rate-setting meetings this week. A swathe of emerging market central banks such as Turkey and South Africa will also meet. In currency markets, the dollar drifted lower with the dollar index last down a touch at 105.24 but within sight of recent six-month highs. The euro gained about 0.1% to $1.0663, after slumping to a 3-1/2 month low of $1.0632 last week as the European Central Bank signalled its rate hikes could be over.

Persons: BOE, BOJ, France's, Taiwan's TSMC, Xi, James Rossiter, Rossiter, Marc Chandler, Goldman Sachs, Kazuo Ueda, Nell Mackenzie, Stella Qiu, Dhara, Philippa Fletcher, Alexander Smith Organizations: REUTERS, Staff, Societe Generale, China Evergrande, HK, Technology, Reuters, TD Securities, Japan's Nikkei, Brent, . West Texas, Federal Reserve, Bannockburn Global, CENTRAL, Global, Fed, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Treasury, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, China, United States, Japan, Scandinavia, Switzerland, Britain, Asia, U.S, London, Bannockburn, Turkey, South Africa, Europe, SYDNEY

"We are negatively surprised by lack of revenue growth, increased capital target, payout & ROTE cut, and by the lack of details," Jefferies analysts said in a note. It also said its new targets were based on annual revenue growth expectations between zero and 2% between 2022 and 2026, but that it would aim to improve its cost-to-income ratio. A SocGen veteran and former head of its investment bank, Krupa said he would streamline the bank's activities but didn't elaborate. The share price decline put SocGen on course for the biggest one-day drop since March. "It will take time for the shares to discount the cost improvement given SG's mixed track record," they said.

Persons: Gonzalo Fuentes, Krupa, Slawomir Krupa, SocGen, JP Morgan, Tassilo Hummel, Silvia Aloisi, Elisa Martinuzzi, Michal Alexandrowicz, Mathieu Rosemain, Ingrid Melander, Mark Potter Organizations: Societe Generale, La Defense, REUTERS, BNP, Jefferies, Thomson Locations: La, Paris, France, Russia

☆ Key targets in SocGen's new strategy plan
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

A logo of French bank Societe Generale is seen on the company's skyscraper at the financial and business district of La Defense near Paris, France September 14, 2023. Here are key targets:GROWTHAnnual revenue growth expectations between 0 and 2% by 2026. In August last year, the bank said it was aiming for average annual revenue growth of at least 3% for 2021-2025. ROTETargets a 9 to 10% return on tangible equity ratio in 2026, up from a reported 5.6% ROTE at the end of June. CET1Aims for a CET1 ratio - a key measure of financial strength - of 13% in 2026, almost on par with the 13.1% reported at end of June.

Persons: Gonzalo Fuentes, Slawomir Krupa, SocGen, Krupa, Mathieu Rosemain, Ingrid Melander, Mark Potter Organizations: Societe Generale, La Defense, REUTERS, Generale's, Thomson Locations: La, Paris, France

☆ SocGen's new boss Krupa pledges to cut costs to boost profits by 2026
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Societe Generale's new CEO Slawomir Krupa pledged on Monday to cut costs to boost profits by 2026 amid stagnating sales, in his first strategic plan for France's third-biggest listed bank. SocGen said it would target a 9 to 10% return on tangible equity ratio (ROTE) in 2026, up from a reported 5.6% ROTE at the end of June. The bank also said that it would reduce its exposure to upstream oil and gas businesses by 80% by 2030 when compared to 2019. SocGen said its new targets were based on annual revenue growth expectations between 0 and 2% by 2026. SocGen is also open to a sale of its equipment finance unit, sources have told Reuters.

Persons: Slawomir Krupa, Krupa, ambitioned, SocGen Organizations: Generale's, Basel Committee, Reuters, Finance, BNP Locations: Basel, Russia, Ukraine

REUTERS/Gonzalo Fuentes/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON/DUBLIN, Sept 18 (Reuters) - Societe Generale's (SOGN.PA) much-hyped new strategy plans were given a thumbs down by investors on Monday, underscoring uncertainty over European banks as they face a brittle economy. "There are more questions about the future and the economy," Legras said, adding that transformative mergers between banks, which investors have waited for in vain, remained unlikely. Reuters GraphicsThat dampens the prospects for Europe's banks, whose valuations are low and static, said one adviser who works with top executives from the region's lenders, adding that investors struggle to see much promise for the sector. European banks' modest earning power has dampened investor appetite for their shares, which often trade at just a fraction of book value - the sum of their assets. While in the United States, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley are valued at around 1.5 times book value, Germany's Deutsche Bank, Dutch lender ABN Amro, France's Credit Agricole and Britain's Standard Chartered are valued at just half book value or less.

Persons: Gonzalo Fuentes, Jerome Legras, Legras, Slawomir Krupa, Krupa, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Frederic Rozier, Morgan Stanley, Karel Lannoo, Elisa Martinuzzi, John O'Donnell, Alexander Smith Organizations: Societe Generale, La Defense, REUTERS, Reuters, European Central Bank, European Union, Commission, Deutsche Bank, ABN Amro, France's Credit, Thomson Locations: La, Paris, France, DUBLIN, France's, Europe, United States, Germany, Mirabaud, U.S, Brussels

☆ European shares slip with central banks in focus; Nordic Semiconductor slumps
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, September 15, 2023. The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) edged 0.2% lower by 0705 GMT, with healthcare (.SXDP) and rate-sensitive technology stocks (.SX8P) weighing on the index. Global central banks will take centre stage this week, with Bank of England likely to hike interest rates for the 15th time later in the week, while the Fed seems set for a hawkish pause. Nordic Semiconductor ASA (NOD.OL) shed nearly 14% after cutting its revenue guidance for the third quarter. Reporting by Bansari Mayur Kamdar in Bengaluru; Editing by Varun H KOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Slawomir Krupa, Bansari Mayur, Varun Organizations: REUTERS, Staff, Bank of, Nordic Semiconductor ASA, Societe, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, United States, Bank of England, Bengaluru

☆ A legendary economist who called the 2008 recession says another downturn is knocking on the door — and warns stocks will end up falling 40% by the end of this market cycle
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-16 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Legendary economist Gary Shilling says the US economy is headed toward a recession — that is, if we're not already in one. "The Fed wants to make sure they've killed inflation," Shilling said. Shilling, who called the 2008 recession, pointed out that recessions sometimes don't start until the Fed has already begun to cut rates. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisTrusted recession indicators are also signaling that a downturn is coming, Shilling said. The Conference BoardAs a result of the recession, Shilling expects stocks to fall significantly.

Persons: Gary Shilling, we're, It's, Shilling, Merrill Lynch, David Rosenberg, Louis, they're, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, Albert Edwards, Edwards Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Conference, Societe Generale Locations: there's

Deutsche Bank logo is seen in this illustration taken March 12, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Deutsche Bank has partnered with Swiss crypto firm Taurus to provide custody services for institutional clients' cryptocurrencies and tokenised assets, Taurus said in a statement on Thursday. The partnership means Deutsche Bank will, for the first time, be able to hold a limited number of cryptocurrencies for its clients, as well as tokenised versions of traditional financial assets, a Deutsche Bank spokesperson said. Deutsche Bank said it aimed to offer crypto trading in a World Economic Forum paper back in 2020. Maley said Deutsche Bank is proceeding "cautiously and in line with the spirit and the letter of the regulations governing this asset class."

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Taurus, Crypto, Paul Maley, Maley, Elizabeth Howcroft, Christina Fincher Organizations: Deutsche Bank, REUTERS, Taurus, Standard Chartered, BNY Mellon, Societe Generale, Deutsche, Thomson Locations: Swiss, U.S

People walk past a logo of French bank Societe Generale in front of the company's skyscraper at the financial and business district of La Defense near Paris, France September 14, 2023. The bank sees the business as non-core, having sold part of its operations in 2020, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity. But a transaction may not happen soon because difficult market conditions weigh on the unit's valuation, they said. Societe Generale Equipment Finance provides equipment leasing and financing solutions to manufacturers, dealers and vendors in sectors ranging from transport to industrials. Rather than naming non-core businesses, Krupa is more likely to outline the group's growth areas, said one person familiar with the bank's thinking.

Persons: Gonzalo Fuentes, Slawomir Krupa, Krupa, Italy's, SocGen, Pablo Mayo Cerqueiro, Mathieu Rosemain, Andres Gonzalez, Amy, Jo Crowley, Elisa Martinuzzi, Silvia Aloisi, Jane Merriman, David Evans Organizations: Societe Generale, La Defense, REUTERS, Finance, Reuters, Deutsche Bank, BNP, Societe Generale Equipment Finance, Basel Committee, Thomson Locations: La, Paris, France, PARIS, Basel

☆ SocGen equity strategists upbeat on S&P 500 near-term, cautious into 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SocGen on Tuesday raised its S&P 500 price target for the end of 2023 to 4,750 from 4,300. In the coming months, calls for a recession will be "deleted/delayed," the SocGen equity strategists said in a report. "We believe the S&P 500 will be the ‘last man standing’, in terms of defending its returns," the strategists said in the report. SocGen gave an S&P 500 target of 3,800 for the second quarter of next year, saying they expected a "shock" to the index "likely driven by a contraction in U.S. consumer spending." Such a yield move would push the S&P 500 back to 4,000, the strategists said.

Persons: Stephane Mahe, SocGen, Lewis Krauskopf, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Societe Generale, REUTERS, Generale, Japan's Nikkei, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Nantes, France, U.S, Europe, China

☆ US exceptionalism thwarts dollar bears but Fed test looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Signs that the dollar will continue enjoying its yield-advantage over other currencies have undercut support for bearish views on the greenback. That theme will be tested in September, as the market braces for a flood of key U.S. economic data as well as the Fed's monetary policy meeting. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's message at next week's monetary policy meeting could also influence the dollar's trajectory. While Englander is bearish the dollar in the medium term, the currency's "underlying drivers have been going so much in the opposite direction," he said. Other dollar rebounds this year, in March and May, failed at levels not far from where the dollar index trades now.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, It's, Vassili Serebriakov, Jerome Powell's, Steven Englander, Serebriakov, it's, Kit Juckes, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Laura Matthews, Ira Iosebashvili, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Futures Trading, UBS, Reuters Graphics, Fed, Standard Chartered, Reuters, TD Securities, Societe Generale, Thomson Locations: U.S, United States

☆ SocGen and Brookfield to launch private debt fund
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

The logo of Societe Generale bank is pictured on an office building in Nantes, France, March 16, 2023. REUTERS/Stephane Mahe/file photo Acquire Licensing RightsPARIS, Sept 11 (Reuters) - French lender Societe Generale (SOGN.PA) and asset manager Brookfield Corp (BN.TO) plan to launch a private debt fund targeting total volume of 10 billion euros ($10.73 billion) over the next four years, they announced on Monday. Initial seed funding, which will be directed towards the power, transportation and finance sectors among others, amounts to 2.5 billion euros, the companies said. The fund "will have a positive impact on the real economy", SocGen Chief Executive Slawomir Krupa said in a press release. ($1 = 0.9319 euros)Reporting by Tassilo Hummel Editing by David GoodmanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Stephane Mahe, Slawomir Krupa, Tassilo Hummel, David Goodman Organizations: Societe Generale, REUTERS, Rights, Brookfield Corp, SocGen, Thomson Locations: Nantes, France

☆ 18 months after Putin invaded Ukraine, Russia's sanctioned oligarchs are still rich and even less likely to stand up to him
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-09 | by ( Ryan Hogg | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +10 min

Russia's oligarchs are even less likely to turn on Vladimir Putin 18 months after the invasion. In the 18 months since Russia invaded Ukraine, the lives of Russian oligarchs such as Melnichenko have changed immeasurably in the face of Western sanctions. Sanctions were unleashed on Russia's billionaires as part of a wider set of economic restrictions that some hoped would inspire a revolt within the country. Russia's oligarchs have Putin to thank for their ongoing success. Revolt is possible but unlikelyIt now appears Russia's oligarchs have adapted to a new status quo where they lack political influence but still have a reliable stream of cash.

Persons: Vladimir Putin, Andrey Melnichenko, Putin, Mikhail Svetlov, Melnichenko, Forbes, hasn't, Putin —, Roman Abramovich, Alisher, Alisher Usmanov, Alexei Druzhinin, Ivan Fomin, Fomin, That's, Peter Rutland, Vladimir Potanin, Potanin, Rosbank, they've, there'd, Rutland, they're, Abramovich, Michael Regan Abramovich, He's, We'll, Arkady Volozh, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Putin oligarch, Wagner Organizations: Putin, Service, Financial Times, United Arab, Russia's, Soviet Union, Union, Kremlin, Center for, Center for Strategic, International Studies, Forbes, Wesleyan University, Bloomberg, New York Times, London, Chelsea FC, Getty, Guardian, Street, EU Locations: Wall, Silicon, Dubai, United Arab Emirates, Russia, Ukraine, Soviet, EU, Russian, Rutland, France, Thailand, Turkey

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Sept 8 (Reuters) - Rising U.S. business bankruptcies may raise a red flag in what otherwise appears like an economy now impervious to rising interest rates. Commenting on the numbers, insolvency research organisation ABI blamed elevated interest rates, price inflation and a resumption of student loan payments as just some of the headwinds causing stress. That partly mirrors some of built-in household resilience to rising rates related to long-term fixed-rate borrowings and still-high cash savings that now earn significantly higher rates of interest now too. And that 10% - accounting for more than 60% of index market cap - had seen no rise in net interest payments so far in the Fed campaign. But creeping insolvencies among the smaller firms - many of whom have been dubbed 'zombies' for years due to their survival solely on low interest rates - may be a better reflection of what's starting to happen at the coalface of the economy.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Albert Edwards, Edwards, Andrew Lapthorne, Russell, NFIB, Mike Dolan, Josie Kao Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Yellow Corp, P Global Market Intelligence, Reuters, Societe Generale, Fed, National Federation of Independent Business, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, midyear

☆ Higher-for-longer rate bets lift dollar, sap stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Long-term Treasury yields hovered at a two-week high of nearly 4.28% and close to last month's post-financial crisis highs. "It all goes back to the discussion of where that magical neutral rate happens to be," he said. "While the markets are still feeling around for where that rate may be, it's going to weigh on equities and support the U.S. The dollar index - which measures the currency against six developed-market peers, including the yen and euro - ticked up 0.07% to 104.93. Reporting by Marc Jones; Additional reporting by Kevin Buckland in Tokyo; Editing by Susan FentonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Robert Alster, Brent, Europe's, hasn't, Kyle Rodda, Kit Juckes, Marc Jones, Kevin Buckland, Susan Fenton Organizations: Tokyo Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S, for Supply Management, Federal, Asset Management, Japan's Nikkei, Reuters, Traders, Federal Reserve, Capital.com, U.S ., Treasury, Generale, People's Bank of China, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Europe, U.S, New York, Asia, Melbourne, China

☆ Morgan Stanley names this stock as its top pick of European banks – giving it 35% upside
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Morgan Stanley has named Societe Generale as its top stock pick among European banks, seeing 35% upside for the French lender. The investment bank's analysts upgraded SocGen to an "overweight" rating and named it a top pick alongside ING Groep of the Netherlands and CaixaBank of Spain. GLE-FR .FCHI YTD line The analysts said European Central Bank (ECB) interest rates have likely peaked after aggressive hikes over the past year. Morgan Stanley forecasts a 13% average growth in European banks' earnings per share plus dividends in 2024 and 2025. Morgan Stanley sees room for cost cuts from internal mergers underway.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, SocGen, Alvaro Serrano, Michael Christodoulou, Christodoulou, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Societe Generale, ING Groep, European Central Bank Locations: Europe, Netherlands, Spain, 2Q24, France

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