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However, concerted efforts to revive South Korean export earnings, alongside an economic recovery in South Korea's top trade partner, China, will likely trigger a reversal in Korea's coal use and emissions trends in 2023, undermining global efforts to cut fossil fuel use and pollution totals. CHINA CONNECTIONDiminished industrial production and consumption in China, South Korea's top market, was especially damaging to Korean manufacturers last year, as China is a major consumer of Korean cars, chemicals and electronics, and a key link in South Korea's supply chain for intermediate goods. COAL RELIANCEEven after the price fireworks of 2022, coal remains the cheapest fuel for additional base load power generation in South Korea, which historically generates around 35%-40% of electricity from coal. South Korea thermal coal imports by originAn additional 20%, or roughly 5 million tonnes, comes from Russia, which has been marginalized in international energy markets since Moscow ordered so-called special military operations in Ukraine a year ago. Beyond offering lower grade and lower cost coal, Indonesia and Russia also boast closer proximity to South Korea than high-quality coal sellers Australia and Canada, which helps lower shipment costs.
LITTLETON, Colorado, March 2 (Reuters) - Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean have the largest solar power development pipeline outside Eastern Asia and North America, making the bloc a key renewable hot spot to track over the coming decade. Solar power currently generates only 3%-4% of the electricity produced across Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), according to data from think tank Ember. But with nearly 250 projects constructing 19,429 megawatts (MW) of solar power capacity, the region's solar power supply potential is primed to jump by at least 70% from current levels once projects are completed, GEM data shows. Collectively, those five countries account for over 88% of current installed solar capacity and about 97% of planned capacity additions that are already in construction. That compares to $0.07/kWh for China, $0.10/kWh for the United States, and $0.07/kWH for India, the top three global solar producers.
China added more wind generation capacity in the past two years than over the previous seven, and in 2022 generated 46% more wind power than all of Europe, the second largest wind generation market, according to data from think tank Ember. MAJOR MILESTONESWhile China has deployed record volumes of both solar and wind power capacity over the past decade, wind generation capacity has grown more steeply than solar capacity since 2020. For industrial scale electricity generation, wind power is often preferred over solar due to the ability for wind turbines to generate electricity around the clock, while solar power generation drops off as the sun sets. Beyond cementing China's place in the international green energy hierarchy, the climb in wind power capacity has helped redraw the energy mix across several key provinces. China’s wind power generation by key ProvinceIn addition, higher generation of renewable power has helped cap power costs for consumers just as the prices of coal and natural gas have pushed sharply higher on international markets.
EU carbon credit pricesTwo-thirds of Europe's emissions stem from just three sectors: energy supply (24.2%), domestic transport (20.7%) and industry (20.7%), according to European Environment Agency (EEA) data from 2020, the latest available. Industry accounts for 25% of Germany's total energy consumption, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), so any successful retooling of Germany's energy systems will likely set trends across Europe. That would mark a 42% drop in only 8 years, and compares to an 18.7% reduction in total emissions from 2010 to 2022. However, given the expected shuttering of Germany's remaining coal plants and least efficient gas-fed power stations, the energy sector's target may be reachable. Germany industry energy use by power sourceCertain sectors are banking on the roll-out of clean hydrogen for use as a fuel instead of natural gas.
CLEAN POWER CRITICAL MASSWhile a majority of energy market focus in 2022 stayed on the impact of surging natural gas prices, Spain and Portugal quietly scaled new highs in terms of clean power generation. REWRITING THE RULESThe negotiations for the Iberian Exception were a messy affair involving bureaucrats from across Europe. As a majority of Europe's power system runs off natural gas, the surge in natural gas prices had a commensurate effect on electricity costs throughout the EU last year. PRICE IMPACTThe exception was implemented in Iberian power markets from June 2022, and resulted in a steady decline in Spanish and Portuguese power prices from then on. Spain vs Europe power pricesIn turn, this allowed power prices in Spain to average roughly 40%-45% less than those in Germany, the Netherlands and France over the latter half of 2022.
LNG imports by regionA key factor that complicates the outlook for South Asian LNG demand is how cost-sensitive buyers are across the region. In 2022, South Asian imports of LNG dropped by their most on record in response to the steep climb in LNG prices to record highs, ship tracking data from Kpler shows. FUEL MISMATCHThe 16.5% drop in LNG imports in 2022 from 2021 was the first annual decline in South Asia's LNG imports since 2013, according to ship tracking data from Kpler. That reversed a declining trend in coal imports into South Asia since 2019, and pushed up coal purchases by more than any other region last year. South Asia LNG imports vs benchmark LNG pricesIndia relies on imports for roughly half of its natural gas supplies, mainly in the form of LNG, so higher LNG imports look likely at least until the coal ban is eased.
But the eye-catching headline numbers also drew scrutiny from climate trackers and policymakers anxious to see fossil fuel majors show leadership in the renewable energy field. Reuters GraphicsSome of so-called Big 5 majors, especially Europe-based firms BP (BP.L), Shell (SHEL.L) and TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA), already boast major business segments tied to renewable energy. Big exposure to U.S.-based production assets, along with lucrative export streams of oil, gas and fuel were key drivers behind the outsized earnings of U.S. firms. Both firms operate at the front edge of the energy transition in different sectors, and present potentially appealing entry points for majors seeking access to fast-growing specialist areas. As the largest utility company in the United States, the firm is already in the starting line-up for any energy sector discussion.
Climate trackers will be alarmed by such a robust outlook, as India's power sector already spewed out near record emissions in 2022 when its economy was stuck in a lower gear, and will likely elevate pollution totals further as momentum builds. RECORD USE OF COALIndia's power sector emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and equivalent gases are on track for a record in 2022, according to data from think tank Ember. The emissions tally for January through November - the latest monthly data available - is 7.5% above the same period in 2021, which registered a record annual power sector emissions total of 1.091 billion tonnes. Strong, sustained electricity demand from households, retail outlets and offices - mainly for air conditioners - helped push India's overall electricity demand higher in 2022, despite the soft showing from manufacturers. India's electricity generation and emissions scale record highs in 2022Total electricity generation through November increased by 8.3% from the year before, indicating that India's power producers successfully deployed larger amounts of new clean power in 2022 (up 13.3%) than new fossil-fuel power (up 6.7%).
LITTLETON, Colo., Feb 1 (Reuters) - A steep drop in France's nuclear power output in 2022 exacerbated Europe's power crisis by forcing French utilities to flip from net power exporters to importers just as Russia's invasion of Ukraine snarled energy markets across the continent. POWERING UPSo far in 2023, France's nuclear power output remains 17.5% below the average from 2020 and 2021, Refinitiv data shows, due in part to strikes against planned pension reforms for unionised workers. Even if average output remains below that previous target, any sustained increase in nuclear production from 2022 totals stands to have an impact on local power prices, as well as France's overall power import needs. For example, in December, some previously curtailed reactors resumed operations and that boosted national nuclear output by 40% from the average of the previous eight months, Refinitiv data shows. France seasonal nuclear power outputReporting By Gavin Maguire; Editing by Christian SchmollingerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Germany output of key industrial productsOther major employers, including steel firms and fertilizer makers, have also been forced to aggressively throttle back production. Germany's power producers have also aggressively ramped up power from intermittent renewable sources, with solar and wind generation totals both rising by more than 50% since 2015. TRIPLE WHAMMYIn 2022, Germany's power sector was roiled on multiple fronts as gas supplies dried up due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict just as dry conditions reduced hydro power and planned reactor shutdowns curbed nuclear power supplies. But Germany's renowned manufacturing economy will not be able to return to its previous dominant position without abundant baseload power. Related columns: Germany energy transition needs faster CO2 cuts from autos, industryThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.
LITTLETON, Colo. Jan 25 (Reuters) - The world's top thermal coal exporter shocked global markets a year ago by temporarily banning coal exports to protect domestic power producers, sending coal prices soaring and kicking off an historically volatile year for coal and other power fuels. For 2022 as a whole, total Indonesian thermal coal exports hit 448.5 million tonnes, a record sum that was 56 million tonnes (14.4%) larger than 2021's total, ship tracking data from Kpler shows. However, there are several factors in play in 2023 that may lift demand for Indonesian coal over the coming months. The planned implementation of energy product sanctions on Russia by the European Union this year is another factor likely to support global coal demand. India's tight domestic coal stockpiles are another bullish factor supporting Indonesia's coal export potential.
LITTLETON, Colo. Jan 24 (Reuters) - Thermal coal imports into China, Japan and South Korea - three of the world's largest coal users - hit their highest combined total in 16 months in December as the North Asian manufacturing powerhouses primed their economies for growth in 2023. Economic momentum in these countries - which collectively accounted for nearly half of all thermal coal imports in 2021 - was subdued in 2022 as China's strict zero-COVID measures stifled industrial activity across the world's largest manufacturing base. Combined thermal coal imports by the three countries totalled 43 million tonnes in December 2022, the highest monthly tally since August 2021, ship-tracking data from Kpler shows. China output of key industrial inputsOne such key end user is Asia's car production industry, which started to show signs of growth as of the latest data from late 2022 across China, Japan and South Korea. Japan passenger car exports by key marketIn sum, the combination of more freedom of movement in China and greater industrial activity across North Asia should spur an improvement in global economic growth in 2023.
As Turkey's overall coal imports grew by only 8.8% in 2022, the surge in Russian purchases came at the expense of other suppliers such as Colombia and Australia. In contrast, Turkey's electricity generation from solar and wind averaged 16% in 2022, meaning that an overwhelming majority of power was generated from other sources. Share of electricity from solar + wind in Turkey, Germany & SpainAn additional 22% of Turkey's electricity came from hydro facilities in 2022, which provided valuable dispatchable clean power for utilities. Yet solar and wind supplies come with the headache of intermittency, when power generation totals slump at night and during cloudy or windless days. Until 2022, Turkey had been on a path to use cleaner-burning natural gas as that main source of baseload supply, with plans to phase out high-polluting coal use over time.
However, thanks to a recent plunge in European natural gas prices - down 60% since December 1 on mild winter temperatures, filled storage tanks and diminished industrial use - European coal prices and demand have slumped so far in 2023. WIDE SPREADThe divergent tones of Europe's and Asia's coal markets are captured by the record-wide price spread between them. This week, that spread surpassed $200 a tonne as Asia-focused Newcastle coal prices held firm around $370 a tonne while European coal prices slumped to $165. Over the near term, such actions will likely narrow the arbitrage window by applying pressure to Asia's coal prices. Those high stocks have in turn been a major driver behind the gas price falls seen since December.
In Switzerland - one of Europe's top winter sports destinations - many ski resorts have been forced to close due to a lack of snow. KINDLINGBeyond lost tourism revenues, the unusually low snow totals and warm temperatures pose a potential threat to several European sectors later this year. For power producers, the low snow totals come on the back of a drier-than-normal 2022, and leave hydro power production potential sharply below normal in several key countries. Last July, a prolonged heat wave pushed river temperatures above the level that can help cool reactors, and forced power producers in France to curb nuclear output. If snow totals remain well below usual, river temperatures may stay warmer than normal in 2023 and pose a fresh risk to nuclear operators.
LITTLETON, Colo., Jan 9 (Reuters) - Pollution levels from China's mammoth power sector are set to climb to new highs in 2023 as Beijing's efforts to spur growth across the economy result in increased burning of fossil fuels. The energy sector accounts for roughly 90% of emissions in the country, the world's top polluter, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). SOFT PATCHThe 1.6% rise in China's power sector emissions through November was the smallest increase during that period on record aside from 2020, when China first tackled COVID outbreaks, Ember data shows. China power sector emissionsA more than 10% rise in electricity generated from clean sources such as solar and wind - compared with a 1.5% rise in fossil fuel electricity generation - helped curb overall power sector emissions, according to the Ember data. Diminished energy demand from shuttered factories and several key industries also capped overall power sector pollution, with China's industrial output through most of 2022 holding at suppressed levels.
China coal use seasonallyBut recent measures aimed at lifting movement restrictions and reviving economic activity in China are already resulting in increased coal import activity at key usage hubs, which stand to impact global coal flows, prices and emissions in 2023. Between January and October, the province cut thermal coal use by 51 million tonnes from the same period in 2021. As a result, many Southern China coal plants are almost overwhelmingly reliant on imported coal. And all major coal ports in that region are now starting to show signs of a recovery in coal import volumes compared with mid-2022, when lockdowns were common throughout the country. And much of that increased coal demand will be fulfilled by imports, which will serve to tighten global coal markets, boost China's coal sector emissions, and potentially raise prices for other coal consumers.
LITTLETON, Colo., Dec 20 (Reuters) - Record liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the United States helped soften the blow to Europe from sharply lower Russian pipelined natural gas supplies in 2022, and will remain a vital energy source for the continent in 2023. But the surging cost of U.S. LNG supplies - which have roughly doubled since late 2021 - look set to come under closer scrutiny in 2023 as governments, utilities and households across Europe move to mend tattered budgets. The United States looks set to remain Europe's top LNG seller in 2023 as U.S. LNG exporters have greater volumes of LNG available for spot market purchases than other major exporters like Qatar, and as additional U.S. export capacity comes on line. LNG export flows by continent by top three global LNG exportersU.S. exporters also enjoy a significant freight cost advantage over Australia and Qatar - the world's largest overall LNG exporters. This means that the United States will remain the primary supplier of LNG to Europe for at least 2023.
Between 2017 and 2021, Vietnam's power sector emissions from burning fossil fuels jumped by 65.3% to more than 121 million tonnes of CO2 or equivalent gases, data from Ember shows. That's the fastest growth in all of Southeast Asia, and places Vietnam as the second largest power sector polluter in the region behind Indonesia (another target of JTEP efforts). Export earnings topped a record $330 billion in 2021, up from $70 billion in 2010, International Monetary Fund data shows. According to data from Ember, 64.3% of Vietnam's electricity was generated from fossil fuels in 2021 (52% coal, 12% gas), while 35.7% came from clean energy sources (30% hydropower, 5% solar). In addition, due to its proximity to other fast-growing economies with similar ambitions to develop manufacturing hubs - including the Philippines, Thailand and Cambodia - any successful retooling of Vietnam's energy system can be used as a template elsewhere.
LITTLETON, Colo., Dec 8 (Reuters) - This week's upbeat renewable energy supply outlook by the International Energy Agency (IEA) contained an important but overlooked lament about the slow roll-out of so-called dispatchable renewable energy sources. In an optimised renewables-based electricity system, dispatchable power sources may only be required in minimal amounts during periods of abundant solar and wind power generation. (A column on the locations of major renewable energy installations is available here.) That statement implies that overall conditions could become more favourable for dispatchable renewable energy sources if their worth was better understood. Ultimately, it may be the utilities that have the biggest direct impact on the prospects for dispatchable energy projects.
Any sustained increase in competition for coal with a re-invigorated China may push up coal prices, further sapping the budgets of European utilities and governments and jeopardising efforts to finance an energy transition away from fossil fuels. BANNER YEAREurope's thermal coal imports through November jumped by 36.2% from the same period in 2021 to roughly 83 million tonnes, according to ship-tracking data from Kpler. China's coal production has also scaled a record, fuelled in part by Beijing's efforts to improve energy security. China thermal coal pricesEurope's main coal price benchmarks have also pushed higher in recent days, with prices for the first quarter of 2023 flipping to a widening premium over front-month prices this week. Europe coal prices point higher this winterCOLD SNAPTemperatures on the ground in China will be a major driver of price direction going forward.
LITTLETON, Colo Nov 23 (Reuters) - China is set to delight and depress climate trackers in equal measure in 2022 by setting new global records in both clean power utilisation and coal-fired electricity emissions. Indeed, Beijing's commitment to developing renewable energy supplies at unmatched scale cannot be questioned. The country deployed more renewable energy generation capacity in 2021 than the rest of the world combined. Clean electricity generation by key marketIn 2022, China's expansions in solar and wind power have put it on track to hit 3,000 terawatt-hours of clean energy electricity generation - far more than any other country - and lifted the share of clean energy in China's electricity mix to a national record of 31.9%, Ember data shows. That compares to a 26.3% share in 2015, and puts China top among global leaders in terms of large-scale clean energy deployment.
However, the power mix varies greatly by country depending on locally available power sources, legacy power production infrastructure, and proximity to energy exporters. Electricity generation by source in key African economiesThis wide variance in power mix is clear when comparing the electricity source profiles of Africa's two largest electricity producers, South Africa and Egypt. In contrast, Egypt uses natural gas for 77% of its electricity, and uses no coal in electricity generation at all. The two countries' electricity systems have starkly divergent emissions footprints as a result of their different primary fuels. Across Northern Africa, natural gas is making rapid inroads into energy systems, primarily from the abundant local supplies in Algeria and Egypt.
But a slow recovery is now underway in France's nuclear power output. LNG BINGEFrance normally relies on nuclear power for 70% of its electricity. But reactor shutdowns due to maintenance work, labour disputes and reduced availability of cooling water during a summer heat wave forced Europe's third-largest economy to boost LNG imports. Further resumptions in nuclear output going forward could raise total electricity supply back to early-2022 levels and herald the start of a slowdown in French LNG purchases, which have historically fallen off during periods of sustained high French nuclear power output. The group kept its output forecasts for 2023 and 2024 unchanged at 300 to 330 TWh and 315 to 345 TWh respectively, however, indicating confidence of a further rise in nuclear output.
Asia coal and gas power production & emissionsTop polluter Asia relies on coal for roughly 57% of electricity production, BP Statistical Review of World Energy data shows, so switching out coal for gas offers a potential way for power producers there to cut emissions without drastically overhauling current power supply systems. Asian power firms plan to build out natural gas pipeline infrastructureHowever, power producers across the region are planning to expand existing networks and link major consumer hubs to distant suppliers. According to a Global Energy Monitor study released in February 2022, more than 70,000 kilometres (43,000 miles) of gas pipelines are under construction globally, with more than 45,000 kilometres in Asia. Global gas markets have been drastically disrupted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine since the Global Energy Monitor study was published, and surging gas prices have clearly cooled Asia's near-term appetite for gas in some areas. However, more Asian gas supplies and use will also allow power producers to lower emissions, which for many of the attendees of the COP27 talks is of greater consequence for global energy markets.
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