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Private payrolls surged far more than expected in June, data showed, suggesting the labor market remained on solid ground despite growing risks of a recession. “We don’t see any softening in the labor market,” said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial Network. Treasury yields jumped following the labor market data. The benchmark 10-year yield burst above 4% while the two-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, hit a 16-year high. U.S. interest rate futures saw an increased probability of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve in November, according to CME's FedWatch.
Persons: payrolls, , Brad McMillan, CME's, Lorie Logan, Lip, judge's, Lewis Krauskopf, Bansari Mayur Kamdar, Johann M, Vinay Dwivedi, Shinjini Ganguli, David Gregorio Our Organizations: Energy, Exxon, Reserve, Commonwealth Financial Network, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed, Dallas, Exxon Mobil Corp, Wealth Management, JetBlue Airways, American Airlines, Spirit Airlines, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York, Bengaluru
Job openings fall by half a million
  + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
There were about half a million fewer job openings in May than the previous month, providing at least a modest sign that the ultra-tight labor market could be loosening a bit, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The closely watched Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed that listings fell to 9.82 million, down 496,000 from April and below the 9.9 million consensus estimate from FactSet. The report comes amid conflicting signs of where the labor market is heading. There is no indication of an abrupt deterioration in labor market conditions," Logan said in remarks delivered at Columbia University in New York. "The continuing outlook for above-target inflation and a stronger-than-expected labor market calls for more restrictive monetary policy," she added.
Persons: Dow Jones, Lorie Logan, Logan Organizations: Labor Department, Labor, Survey, Dow, Federal Reserve, Dallas, Columbia University Locations: New York
Private payrolls increased more than expected in June, the ADP National Employment report showed, indicating the labor market remained strong despite growing risks of a recession from higher interest rates. Another survey showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased moderately last week. "The Fed has been hopeful to see a modest deterioration in the labor market," said Randy Frederick, managing director of trading and derivatives for Charles Schwab. "But since the ADP number was almost twice of what was expected, it generally implies there's potential for more rate hikes going forward." Reporting by Bansari Mayur Kamdar and Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru Editing by Vinay DwivediOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: payrolls, Randy Frederick, Charles Schwab, Lorie Logan, Janet Yellen, judge's, Bansari Mayur Kamdar, Johann M, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: Exxon, Dow, ADP, Dallas, Twitter, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Institute for Supply, Qualcomm, Intel, Treasury, Exxon Mobil, JetBlue Airways, American Airlines, Spirit Airlines, NYSE, Thomson Locations: ., Beijing, Washington, China, U.S, Bengaluru
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWorld's central bankers will not forsake 2% inflation target, Former Dallas Fed President FisherRichard Fisher, former Dallas Fed President and Barclays senior advisor, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss how much of Powell's tone is insurance, whether Brexit's a function of the inflation problem in the UK, and more.
Persons: Fisher Richard Fisher Organizations: Dallas Fed, Barclays
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with former Dallas Fed president Richard FisherRichard Fisher, former Dallas Fed President and Barclays senior advisor, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss how much of Powell's tone is insurance, whether Brexit's a function of the inflation problem in the UK, and more.
Persons: Richard Fisher Richard Fisher Organizations: Dallas Fed, Barclays
Don't expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates anytime soon, Richard Fisher says. The US central bank is unlikely to lower rates until 2024, the former Dallas Fed president said. "And at a minimum, they're not going to be cutting rates in my view, as far as the eye can see, until 2024," Fisher added. The central bank raised borrowing costs at 10 consecutive meetings between March 2022 and May 2023 in a bid to tame inflation, which was running close to four-decade highs. Read more: These 5 charts capture a rollercoaster 15 months for stocks, bonds, and crypto as the Fed pauses its tightening campaign
Persons: Richard Fisher, , CNBC's, they're, Fisher, Jerome Powell, Read Organizations: Federal Reserve, Dallas Fed, Service, Bank of England
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed looks unlikely to cut rates even into 2024, says former Dallas Fed President Richard FisherRichard Fisher, Former Dallas Federal Reserve president, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss what the central bank's next moves might look like.
Persons: Richard Fisher Richard Fisher Organizations: Dallas Fed, Former Dallas Federal Reserve
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFormer Dallas Fed president Richard Fisher: The Fed is 'totally devoted' to 2% inflation targetRichard Fisher, former Dallas Fed President and Barclays senior advisor, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's rate hike campaign, why more hikes are still expected later this year, and more.
Persons: Richard Fisher Organizations: Former Dallas Fed, Dallas Fed, Barclays
The Reserve Bank of Australia seems to have executed a one-meeting 'skip', but perhaps more by accident than design. Leaving open the possibility in July of another 25-basis-point hike two months later could prevent financial conditions from loosening too much. The Fed wants policy to be restrictive, and financial markets to move accordingly. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Philip Jefferson in recent weeks have introduced 'skip' and 'skipping' into Fed-watchers' lexicons. Until then, a pause was generally assumed to lay the ground for rate cuts, not a resumption of rate hikes.
Persons: Alan Greenspan, John Silvia, Silvia, Jerome Powell, Lorie Logan, Powell, Patrick Harker, Christopher Waller, Philip Jefferson, Price, Lou Crandall, Wrightson ICAP, Jamie McGeever, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Reserve Bank of Australia, Dynamic, Fed, Dallas, Philadelphia Fed, Consumer, Index, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida
With the end of another earnings season in sight, Wall Street's attention has turned to Washington and the debt ceiling deadline. Republican negotiators on Friday walked out of talks on raising the debt limit , abruptly ending a positive week of discussions that appeared to be leading toward a deal. Democrats and the White House have been pushing for a "clean" hike to the debt limit that would push the next deadline past the 2024 presidential election, while Republicans are pressing for spending cuts. Many investors believe this ongoing game of chicken over the debt limit is largely for show, since the U.S. has never defaulted on its debt obligations. U.S. President Joe Biden hosts debt limit talks with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and other congressional leaders in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, U.S., May 9, 2023.
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index (.AXJO) rose 0.66%, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) continued its ascent, rising to its highest since August 1990, during the country's so-called bubble era. Futures indicated European stocks were set to open higher, with Eurostoxx 50 futures up 0.44%, German DAX futures up 0.41% and FTSE futures up 0.23%. China's blue-chip CSI300 Index (.CSI300) rose 0.20%, while the Shanghai Composite Index (.SSEC) was up 0.13%, having reversed from earlier losses. Hawkish rhetoric from Fed speakers continued with Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard saying inflation was not cooling fast enough to allow the Fed to pause its interest-rate hike campaign. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar rose 0.029% and was wedged near a two-month high.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) eased 0.20% but was set to eke out a gain of 0.19% for the week. Data in the week underscored that China's economy lost momentum at the beginning of the second quarter, stoking worries over the wobbly post-COVID-19 recovery. Investor attention has been firmly on the negotiations over U.S. debt ceiling and increasing hopes that a deal could be reached sent U.S. shares higher overnight . Hawkish rhetoric from Fed speakers continued with Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard saying inflation was not cooling fast enough to allow the Fed to pause its interest-rate hike campaign. U.S. crude fell 0.14% to $71.76 per barrel and Brent was at $75.78, down 0.11% on the day.
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by over two basis points to 3.6249%. U.S. Treasury yields fell on Friday as investors weighed comments from Federal Reserve officials on the outlook for interest rate policy and assessed the state of the economy. Investors looked to remarks from Fed speakers for hints about monetary policy and assessed how that may affect the economy. On Thursday, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she did not believe halting interest rate hikes was justified based on recent economic data. More Fed speakers, including Chairman Jerome Powell, are due to speak Friday.
Morning Bid: Hopeful ahead of the weekend
  + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Yoruk Bahceli. Markets are heading into the weekend basking in optimism that a debt ceiling deal to avert a catastrophic U.S. Treasury default will be struck soon. His team have reported progress in talks and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has said a deal is "doable" by Sunday. The S&P 500 is up 1.8% this week, set for its best week since end-March when markets were in panic mode around a banking crisis dragging down the economy. Fed speakers also sounded the alarm; Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and St Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Thursday U.S. inflation doesn't look like it's cooling fast enough to merit a rate hike pause.
Watch Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speak live on monetary policy
  + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks Friday at the "Perspectives on Monetary Policy" panel at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference the central bank is hosting in Washington, D.C. The remarks come with markets suddenly divided on where the Fed goes from here. Market pricing Friday morning indicated about a 35% probability the Fed might approve another interest rate hike when it meets in June, according to the CME Group. The Fed next week will release minutes from its meeting earlier in May at which it approved its 10th interest rate hike since March 2022. Read more:Dallas Fed President Logan says current data doesn't justify pausing rate hikes yetFed Governor Philip Jefferson named as new vice chair to succeed Lael BrainardFed increases rates a quarter point and signals a potential end to hikes
Fed Officials Suggest June Rate Rise Will Be Close Call
  + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Nick Timiraos | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Federal Reserve officials indicated the decision to raise interest rates at their meeting next month was shaping up as a close call, with another policy maker Thursday hinting she would support another increase. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, a key centrist on the Fed’s policy-setting committee, suggested that barring further weakness in the economic outlook, she would be prepared to lift the benchmark federal-funds rate by a quarter percentage point at the central bank’s June 13-14 meeting.
Tech led the stock market higher on Thursday as investors chase the growing hype around artificial intelligence. Investors are also looking toward progress on the debt ceiling negotiations and the potential for another Fed rate hike in June. Investors were also closely monitoring progress on debt ceiling negotiations, with the June 1 "X-date" now less than two weeks away. While President Biden traveled to Japan for the G7 summit, he said he would cut his trip early and return to Washington, D.C. to continue the debt ceiling negotiations. Fed President James Bullard also said on Thursday that another rate hike in June is possible.
Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan said Thursday that the economic data points so far don't justify skipping a rate increase at the central bank's next meeting in June. While noting some progress in bringing down inflation and cooling the labor market, Logan said the Fed still has work to do in achieving its goal for price stability. But she expressed concern that what she's seen so far has indicated only modest impact from the Fed rate hikes, which have totaled 5 percentage points. And it's a long way from here to 2% inflation," Logan said, referring to the Fed's longer-run goal. She noted that the Fed's preferred inflation data point, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, ran at a 4.9% annualized pace in the first quarter.
The Fed should issue a "hawkish pause" in its rate hike cycle, the former Dallas Fed President said. That's because recent banking chaos is still in the early stages of unfolding, Robert Kaplan told Bloomberg. "I think we're in the early stages, not the late stages of this banking situation," Kaplan told Bloomberg in a televised interview early Wednesday. There's an 87% probability policymakers will raise the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 5%-5.25%. In terms of the Fed, "let's say they raise then pause, or they pause and and signal a so-called hawkish pause, either way, the rhetoric needs to be that the Fed stands ready to raise rates," said Kaplan.
While that's good for them, it also means "we're definitely moving towards a slowdown," one CFO said. "They are trying to fight a problem but there's evidence around the U.S. that says the economy is slowing. One concern voiced by CFOs is that the top end of the consumer market has been masking deeper problems in the economy, with companies tracking a rise in credit delinquencies, and that is now starting to spread. But inside major corporations, executives say they see signs of mounting trouble for the economy and as another interest rate hike looms, it may be time for the Fed to stop. While traders are betting on rate cuts before year-end, the CNBC Fed Survey shows a belief from economists and money managers that the Fed will hold rates higher for eight months.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailI would hate to see the Fed not complete the course, says former Dallas Fed president Richard FisherRichard Fisher, former Dallas Fed president and senior Barclays advisor, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's upcoming policy meeting, the Fed's rate hike path, and more.
US futures bounce but bank worries boost safer bets
  + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Nasdaq futures were up 1.3% and S&P 500 futures up 0.4% following better-than-expected profits at Microsoft (MSFT.O) and a $70 billion stock buyback at Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL.O). Facebook parent Meta Platforms (META.O) reports later in the day, with U.S. markets on edge over softening U.S. data and fresh regional bank jitters. On Tuesday, First Republic Bank (FRC.N) shares were sold to a record low after the bank disclosed a $100 billion plunge in deposits. The S&P 500 (.SPX) and Nasdaq (.IXIC) both fell heavily while bonds rallied sharply and interest rate futures markets priced in a higher chance of Fed cuts later in the year. Two-year Treasury yields dropped 18.7 basis points on Tuesday and were steady at 3.9365% in Asia.
US futures bounce with earnings but bank worries weigh
  + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Nasdaq futures were up 1.4% and S&P 500 futures up 0.5% following better-than-expected profits at Microsoft (MSFT.O) and a $70 billion stock buyback at Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL.O). First Republic Bank (FRC.N) shares were sold to a record low after the bank disclosed a $100 billion plunge in deposits. Bonds rallied sharply and interest rate futures markets priced in a higher chance of Fed cuts later in the year. Two-year Treasury yields dropped 18.7 basis points overnight and were steady at 3.9221% in Asia. Brent crude futures hovered at $80.98 a barrel having dropped almost 4% overnight with the risk-averse mood.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFormer Dallas Fed president Richard Fisher: Four or five percent inflation is unacceptableRichard Fisher, former Dallas Fed president and senior Barclays advisor, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss why the Federal Reserve doesn't seem as worried about the bank failures as the markets, if recent data has swayed the Federal Reserve, and more.
AT&T (T.N) shares dropped 10.4% after the wireless carrier missed market estimates for first-quarter revenue and free cash flow. The S&P 500's rally to start the year is set to be tested by a first-quarter earnings season that investors expect to show tepid results. “The market has been overbought for the last week or two," said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial. In other earnings news, American Express Co (AXP.N) profit missed Wall Street estimates and its shares fell 1%. Shares of Lam Research (LRCX.O) rose 7.2% after the chip-making equipment supplier's revenue topped estimates, while shares of D.R.
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