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But some investors are concerned markets could be due for a broader unwind without the help from AI names. As it is, five of the Magnificent Seven names dropped last week, with the exception of Nvidia and Meta Platforms. That advance has helped the S & P 500 climb for 16 out of 19 weeks, notching record after record in its ascent. "A consolidation in the AI trade has been overdue for a while now, so Friday's key reversal day could signal the start of that unwind." NVDA 5D mountain Nvidia Crowding in AI Indeed, other market observers warned investors the overreliance on AI beneficiaries this year could mean danger for the overall market.
Persons: Jonathan Krinsky, Peter Boockvar, semi's, Dubravko, BTIG's Krinsky, there's, Russell, Chris Verrone, Goldman Sachs, Krinsky, Samantha Subin Organizations: Nvidia, Meta, Apple, AMD, Bleakley Financial, Google, JPMorgan, Sunday
Bank of AmericaIn the note, Hartnett laid out more evidence that a bubble could be developing in stocks. The current real 10-year rate is 1.6%, according to Fed data. Hartnett said a falling number of job quitters shows a weakening labor market, hence the Fed's apparent willingness to cut rates soon. February's inflation data will be released next week, but January's data showed that prices are still rising at a pesky pace of 3.1%, above the Fed's stated goal of 2%. Whether a Fed pivot is a good thing for investors depends on just how cool labor market data becomes.
Persons: , Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, quitters, Alejandra Grindal, Ned Davis, it's, Grindal Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Business, PHLX Semiconductor, Nasdaq, Semiconductor, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Meta, Bank of America's, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Ned, Ned Davis Research
Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, during a House Financial Services Committee hearing in Washington, D.C., on June 21, 2023. The past several months have seen a changing dynamic between financial markets and the Fed over the pace and timing of expected interest rate cuts this year. Markets have had to adjust their collective view from a highly accommodative central bank to one that's more cautious and deliberate. Central to the question of how the Fed acts from here on out is its view on inflation and how Powell expresses that. Powell will have to synthesize the recent trends carefully as he speaks first to the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday, then the Senate Banking Committee the day after.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Nathan Howard, Powell, Quincy Krosby, He's, it's, Joseph LaVorgna, Steven Ricchiuto, Sharp Organizations: Federal, Financial, Washington , D.C, Bloomberg, Getty, Capitol Hill, Fed, LPL, CME Group, Banking Committee, Nikko Securities, Big Tech, Mizuho Securities, Market Locations: Washington ,
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Trivariate's Adam Parker, CIC’s Malcolm Ethridge and Invesco’s Kristina HooperAdam Parker, Trivariate Research CEO, Malcolm Ethridge, CIC Wealth Executive Vice President, and Kristina Hooper, Invesco chief global market strategist, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss opportunities to find in the market.
Persons: Trivariate's Adam Parker, CIC’s Malcolm Ethridge, Invesco’s Kristina Hooper Adam Parker, Malcolm Ethridge, Kristina Hooper Organizations: Trivariate
The Federal Reserve's rate-cut signal in December triggered a furious rally to record highs, unleashing animal spirits that are fueling similar speculative activities from the depths of the pandemic. "The animal spirits are reviving," Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofA Global Research, said in a phone interview. "Animal spirits, they don't necessarily start with the biggest animals in the jungle," Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, said by phone. To be sure, others believe the market rally has been justified by the enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, and the contribution it's likely to make to future corporate profits. Billionaire investor Ray Dalio said the U.S. stock market is not in a speculative bubble based on his criteria.
Persons: Bitcoin, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Cryptocurrency, Scott Rubner, Goldman Sachs, Quincy Krosby, Ray Dalio Organizations: BofA Global Research, Nasdaq, GameStop, Palo Alto Networks, Research, LPL Locations: Nigeria, Argentina, Snowflake, YOLO, . U.S, U.S
New York CNN —Former President Donald Trump is once again warning the stock market is doomed unless voters return him to the White House. He went on to say a loss for him would spark “the largest stock market crash we’ve ever had.”But there is no evidence to support that claim. “This is just an encore presentation of what he said last time,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Financial. In fact, the stock market has generated higher annual returns when Democrats are in power. It’s true that Trump’s surprise victory in November 2016 helped spark an impressive rally in the stock market as investors bet on deregulation, tax cuts and infrastructure.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, you’re, ” Trump, , Brian Gardner, “ There’s, ” David Kelly, , Kelly, Joe Biden, Biden, Hogan, ” Sam Stovall, he’s, “ It’s, Dow, ” Kelly, Gardner, James Singer, CNN it’s “, ” Singer, Jerome Powell —, Powell, Jerome Powell, Greg Valliere, Trump’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, CNN, White, Trump, Asset Management, Dow, Riley, CFRA Research, GOP, , Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Biden, Republicans, Democrat, Research, , Republican, AGF Investments Locations: New York, Washington, Trump, China
On the surface, it may seem simple — global stocks are rallying, so there must be one universal driver, right? When this happens, the yen should strengthen and improve shareholder value in Japanese stocks, Arone said. "All of that gives you the ingredients you need to push stocks higher — not only U.S. stocks, but global stocks — in the next 12 months or so," he said. "I think that international stocks — Japan, Europe — have more room to go. Similar to Kelly, Kleintop recommended a more broad-based approach to playing this global rally.
Persons: It's, Charles Schwab's, Jeffrey Kleintop, they've, David Kelly, Michael Arone, Kelly, Arone, , Kleintop, Fred Imbert Organizations: U.S, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Nikkei, CNBC, Nvidia, Asset Management, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Tokyo Stock Exchange, State, Locations: United States, U.S, Europe, Japan, Korea, China, Asia, America, Eastern Europe, — Japan
House Republican hardliners' efforts to stonewall a budget deal ahead of a looming government shutdown could risk triggering automatic spending cuts later this spring that may put pressure on the U.S. economy's already fraught recovery. A full-year budget deal to avert the FRA cuts appears increasingly unlikely, amid staunch opposition from the House's ultraconservative wing. Freedom Caucus derailmentMembers of the House Freedom Caucus, a coalition of hardline conservatives, have been working to derail a permanent budget. Instead, they want to extend the current temporary spending resolution through the rest of the fiscal year, ensuring the FRA's spending cuts are triggered on April 30. But if the FRA's automatic spending cuts take effect, they could rattle the broader economy's teetering recovery.
Persons: Mike Johnson, Jake Sullivan, economy's, Joe Biden, Chuck Schumer, Mitch McConnell, Hakeem Jeffries, Jan, Johnson, Kevin McCarthy, McCarthy, McConnell, Piper Sandler, Nancy Lazar, Lazar, Sen, Patty Murray Organizations: National Security, U.S, Capitol, House Republican, Congressional Research Service, Caucus, Democrat, Freedom Caucus, Congressional Locations: Washington ,, stonewall, D
If the US wants a soft landing, it needs to enact fiscal measures like student-loan forgiveness and tax cuts, Piper Sandler's chief global economist said. "There could easily be an additional 1.5% boost to GDP from fiscal stimulus this year," she wrote. AdvertisementIf the US economy wants to stick a soft landing, the government is going to have to loosen the purse strings. There are three times in history that the US has been able to nail a soft landing: 1967, 1985, and 1995. "Easing amid material fiscal stimulus risks repeating the Martin Fed's mistake...which set the stage for the 1970s' disastrous inflation cycle," she wrote.
Persons: Piper, Nancy Lazar, , Piper Sandler's, Lazar, doling, Smith, Bill Martin, Martin Organizations: Drivers, Service, Congressional, Bloomberg, Fed, US
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Disco is backOthers have also started to compare today's market and the 1970s' "Nifty Fifty." AdvertisementJPMorgan's Chief Global Strategist Marko Kolanovic also said in a note on Wednesday that fiscal spending and inflation could resemble the 1970s landscape. Similar to the 1970s, there are currently 3 active geopolitical conflict zones – eastern Europe, Middle East, and South China Sea," Kolanovic said. Kolanovic included in his note the chart below, which shows the correlation between inflation and the performance of the S&P 500.
Persons: , Albert Edwards, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett, Jeffrey Gundlach, Cole Smead, Smead, Sears Roebuck, Alphabet's, Nvidia's, Microsoft's, Jeremy Siegel, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, " Rosenberg, Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: Service, Societe Generale, Bank of America's, Treasury, Nasdaq, DoubleLine, Investments, Business, Morningstar, Microsoft, Nvidia, Xerox Locations: Europe, Middle East, South China
For example, the tech sector’s valuations are generally lower than they were then, though still elevated. One is that the fundamentals of the tech sector are detached from its price action. While the sector’s earnings have performed better than the rest of the market on average, earnings expectations have been rising faster than actual subsequent earnings performance. Many parallels between the dot-com bubble and today’s market have been called to light in recent weeks. Only time will tell if tech stocks are in a bubble that's due to burst.
Persons: Albert Edwards, , ” Edwards, Edwards, Michael Hartnett, Jeffrey Schulze, Adam Karr, , Quincy Krosby, Hartnett Organizations: Societe Generale, Nasdaq, Business, Generale, Bank of America, Orbis Investment Management, Artificial Intelligence, LPL Financial Locations: Japan
Yet Jerome Powell and his central bank colleagues have rebuffed those forecasts, and markets have pushed their rate cut predictions further into 2024. And the producer price index for January came in at 0.3% on Friday, higher than the expected 0.1% increase. Jimmy Chang, the chief investment officer for Rockefeller Global Family Office, told Business Insider that it would be difficult for the Fed to cut rates in the current landscape. AdvertisementThe Fed's next moveThe case for keeping rates unchanged has gained momentum over recent weeks, but both markets and the Fed ultimately expect easing interest rates in 2024. Bank of America forecasts that the first cut likely won't happen until June, and policymakers could opt to cut rates "later and faster."
Persons: Jerome Powell, Nonfarm payrolls, Mary Daly, agilely, Joe Seydl, Seydl, Jimmy Chang, Chang, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Jay Woods, We're, Woods, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Atlanta Fed, San Francisco Fed, JPMorgan Private Bank, Rockefeller Global Family Office, Fed, Chicago Fed, Council, Foreign Relations, Freedom Capital Markets, Bank of America
Wholesale prices spiked in January, rising 0.3% and above expectations in yet another sign that maybe inflation is proving harder to put to rest than the markets and the Federal Reserve had hoped. Economists had expected a 0.1% monthly increase in both the overall producer price index – a measure of prices paid by businesses – and the core, which leaves out often volatile energy and food costs. Increases in shelter costs accounted for more than two-thirds of the increase in the main index, although food prices also increased while energy costs fell. Investors had bought into the notion of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in May, but that was called into question by the stronger-than-expected news on inflation. “When will the recession start?” asks Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research in a report out Friday morning.
Persons: , Clark Bellin, John Ingram, Chris Giamo, Giamo, , Peter Berezin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, PPI, CPI, Dow Jones, Investors, , Crestwood Advisors, , TD Bank, BCA Research Locations: U.S
13F filing insights: Here's what investors should know
  + stars: | 2024-02-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email13F filing insights: Here's what investors should knowJay Woods, Freedom Capital Markets chief global strategist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the key takeaways from the latest 13F filings, latest market trends, and more.
Persons: Jay Woods Organizations: Freedom Capital Markets
That sudden volatility highlights something that we often write about in Before the Bell: the major mismatch between policymaker and investor expectations for interest rate cuts this year. Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have repeatedly said they envision at most three rate cuts in 2024. Wall Street, meanwhile, has ignored those warnings and has opted to practice unflinching optimism instead. It’s not the first time they’ve had to learn an important lesson: Don’t fight the Fed. Bad for the markets, good for the Fed: Markets clearly don’t often take kindly to higher-for-longer interest rates, which can negatively impact earnings and stock prices.
Persons: New York CNN —, Jerome Powell, Dow, It’s, they’ve, Don’t, , , Quincy Krosby, Arnim Holzer, José Torres, Chris Zaccarelli, doesn’t, ” Carl Icahn, Carl Icahn, Icahn, Chris Isidore, JetBlue’s, Samantha Delouya, Lyft, Erin Brewer Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, of Labor Statistics, BLS, Treasury, LPL, Fed, Interactive Brokers, CPI, Independent, Alliance, JetBlue, Spirit Airlines, Analysts Locations: New York, December’s, ,
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBuy the Russell on its weakness, says Freedom Capital's Jay WoodsJay Woods, Freedom Capital Markets chief global strategist, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the technicals for Russell small caps, Coinbase and Intercontinental Exchange.
Persons: Russell, Jay Woods Jay Woods Organizations: Freedom Capital Markets, Intercontinental Exchange
As of Friday, 67% of the S&P 500 had released results, with three quarters reporting revenue surprises to the upside, according to FactSet. Jay Woods, the chief global strategist of Freedom Capital Markets, referred to the recent price moves as "a ridiculous rally" in a February 12 note. Investors who want to continue riding the momentum upward may need to move to individual stocks. The 10 stocks listed below have "strong buy" ratings with the highest upsides based on top analysts' price targets among mega, large, mid, and small-cap stocks. TipRanks, a market research provider, rates analysts based on the following three main criteria:
Persons: Jay Woods Organizations: Business, Dow, Nasdaq, Freedom Capital, Investors
JPMorgan's David Kelly: We don't see inflation reigniting
  + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJPMorgan's David Kelly: We don't see inflation reignitingDavid Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the S&P 500 reaching the $5,000 mark, whether this earnings season says something about equities, and more.
Persons: JPMorgan's David Kelly, David Kelly Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management
The dollar is back. It’s not all good news
  + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
New York CNN —The greenback is strengthening again after a bumpy 2023, as Wall Street accepts that interest rate cuts are coming later than previously expected. The US Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against the British pound, euro, Swiss franc, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar and Swedish krona, is up 2.8% for the year as of Friday morning. “All of a sudden the interest rate differential kicks in — if that is slower than the Fed or faster,” said Krosby. Higher interest rates tend to garner more international capital to flow into a country, raising demand for the currency and thus its value. Still, Todd Jones, chief investment officer at Gratus Capital, says he expects the dollar to trend lower eventually as the Fed gets closer to cutting rates.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Quincy Krosby, , Neel Kashkari, Todd Jones, Jones, Anna Cooban, Richard Meade, Janet Yellen, Alicia Wallace, Yellen, ” Yellen Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Swiss, Canadian, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, LPL, Treasury, Minneapolis, Gratus, Fed, Hamas, Lloyds, CNN, Banking Committee Locations: New York, Swedish, Iran, Suez, Asia, Europe
As China's property market and deflation woes continue to rattle investors, India's growth outlook appears all the more impressive. Last year's annual report attributed strong revenue growth partially to expansion in the Middle East, India, and Asia, Krishna wrote. "More than revenue, India is an important area for sourcing talent" as well, Krishna wrote. Growth potential For investors looking to gain exposure to the domestic stock market, Indian equities themselves aren't especially cheap though. "You're paying for the growth potential in India, certainly.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Chetan Ahya, Ahya, Bernstein, , Narendra Modi, Bill Fitzpatrick, Fitzpatrick, Quincy Krosby, Venu Krishna, Aecom, Krishna, Tim Long, Long, Simon Coles, Krosby, Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach, CNBC's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Investment, Logan Capital Management, Modi, Infrastructure Pipeline, Aecom, Barclays, Cisco Systems, Juniper Networks, India —, Semiconductor, Micron Technology, Qualcomm, Logan Capital Locations: India, China, Asia, Philadelphia, South Carolina . U.S, Dallas, East, Asia Pacific, Japan, Coles , U.S, U.S, IShares
That’s added as much as two weeks to a typical East-to-West journey for container ships, and 18 days for slower bulk carriers and tankers. Global container shipping costs are less than half their level during the coronavirus pandemic, which peaked at $10,380 in September 2021. Even so, he said, container shipping is “very cost-effective” as many goods can be packed into a single shipping container. The Galaxy Leader cargo ship is escorted by Houthi boats in the Red Sea on November 20, 2023. Fewer oil tankers have avoided the Red Sea than container ships, which the Houthi militants more closely identify with Western countries allied with Israel.
Persons: Richard Meade, Tesla, Peter Sand, Good Hope, That’s, , Lloyd —, , ” Simon MacAdam, ” Maersk, Meade Organizations: London CNN —, Hamas, Lloyds, CNN, Maersk, Hapag, Carriers, Global, Container, Capital Economics, Organisation for Economic Co, Development, Galaxy Leader, Houthi Military Media, Reuters Locations: Iran, Suez, Asia, Europe, Germany, Swedish, Africa, South Africa’s, Good, Sand, Vietnam, Drewry, Shanghai, China, Rotterdam, Netherlands, Xeneta, Israel, United States, Canada
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe economy has been ticking along without needing a rate cut, says Moneta's Aoifinn DevittAoifinn Devitt, Moneta chief global market strategist and London CIV CIO, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, earnings season, the Fed's rate path outlook, state of the economy, and more.
Persons: Moneta's Aoifinn Devitt Aoifinn Devitt, Moneta Organizations: London CIV
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEvidence suggests we are in 'soft landing phase,' strategist saysJoe Little, chief global strategist at HSBC Asset Management, discusses the outlook for the U.S. economy and emerging markets.
Persons: Joe Little Organizations: HSBC Asset Management Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed cuts come down to the labor market, says Morgan Stanley’s Jim CaronDavid Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist, Kristen Bitterly, Citi Global Wealth Management head of North America investments, and Jim Caron, head of Macro Strategies for Global Fixed Income at Morgan Stanley, join 'Power Lunch' to discuss the Fed decision to keep rates unchanged.
Persons: Morgan Stanley’s Jim Caron David Kelly, Kristen, Jim Caron, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Fed, JPMorgan Asset Management, Citi Global Wealth Management Locations: North America
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWhen watching earnings, you have to respect the trendlines, says Jay WoodsJay Woods, Chief Global Strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, discusses tech earnings and the broader markets.
Persons: Jay Woods Jay Woods Organizations: Chief Global, Freedom Capital Markets
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